pureasthedriven

That's the one!

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday: Mostly dry Wednesday, but some wintry showers in northeast and some rain or snow likely across southern parts. Thursday/Friday will be unsettled with a continued risk of snowfall in places. Updated: 1104 on Mon 5 Feb 2007 From the MetO. Clearly in the balance.

If you want the techie explanation, ask someone else but I can tell you this - the number relates to the thickness of the air and the lower the number the greater the chance of snow when precipitation is about. The 528 line is a spurious figure though - many other factors come into play for 'guaranteeing' snow. It's the minimum requirement. Check the archive charts for Jan 87 and look at the thicknesses there - now THAT'S what you're after! Edit: sorry, just seen the raft of responses!

But the evolution from those charts could be excellent though.

Thicknesses look all wrong there to me though Eye? Interesting to hear the beeb sounding confident re snow for the south weds/thurs - could look like a right bunch of muppets with that call in such a marginal set up. Now, what was that I've been saying about the 7th...?

SP: quite. And again, SP; quite. You should have heard Ken Livingston yesterday, telling us all that we can expect year on year of this now, becoming hotter and hotter. Since when did Ken also become Stratos Ferric!

I find myself agreeing with this post, West. I think what is important is that we all recognise that there are a blend of methods and approaches to the weather out there and until one single method is proved flawless then none should be disregarded. The range of methods makes for interesting reading, though I would say that in tracking forecasts and models for the last few years, it's often the case that the 'hunchers' (such as myself) can be as accurate as the 'scientists' on occasions, in the very short term (last nights projected storms in the SE being a prime example - one could just tell by looking at the sky and sniffing the air that they were never going to happen in my area). I think the danger can be that yes, the UK weather can be unpredictable and changeable (that's a laugh at the moment!) but we most certainly can also make reasonable assumptions based on a small amount of sciene coupled with a healthy slab of experience and common sense.

Raised a distinct chuckle that one, Enforcer

Yes, the lack of zonality is the real nub of this argument, I'd concur with that, though it's a long track to equate a lack of zonality with a growing easterly influence (the Siberian high is, after all, a quasi-permanent feature of the winter much like the Azores). It's quite feasible that we in the UK could become stuck in the middle of such a pattern; pretty blocked and dry and sandwiched between a very cold and snowy continent and a mobile pattern across the pond. I'm more minded to keep my futuristic eye on the polar jet and the effect of the diminishing ice sheet at the pole. The further north that thermal gradient gets, the less likely we are to get poleside of the polar front. I'm no technical meteorologist but that strikes me as common sense. And yet again, SP, you're alluding to 'ifs' and 'buts'. Given the synoptic patterns over much of this winter, are you not amazed that I've not seen one single day of lying snow? Really, just what will it take?

49? Wouldn't say I'm that far behind you fella! In fact, I feel about that this morning! As we said, our respective locations would produce a very different 'take'. The London area isn't great for much weather at any time of the year (unless it's unbridled summer heat you're after) so by that yardstick, it's been a remarkably bland winter. I do agree about the synoptics this year though, but no sooner do we get them then we get a rampant pacific jet that has scuppered any real enduring cold at almost every juncture. I just hope that the future is not a chilly, dry one.

John, For me it has been disappointing because there's been very little 'weather'. November was great, with its frosts and fog, really seasonal and very nostalgic in its own way. But December, Jan and Feb have been hugely disappointing; but then I don't find merely seasonal temps or slightly below average temps inspiring, especially when they are combined with very dry, cloudy conditions. Very dull stuff. At least in a mobile pattern there is a chance of some weather! And likewise, you talk of easterly 'influence' but to my mind, the east hasn't influenced our weather a great deal unless you're speaking of persistent blocking in just the wrong place that killed off much of our 'weather'. 'Narrowly missing out on that cold blast from the east' is just it - that's pretty much a default postion for the UK - and indicative of an unfavourable jet. Whether the cold is only 300 miles away is neither here or there in my book; it's a chicken or egg scenario where the evolution of the jet produces precisely the cold pool that we can't quite tap in to! I appreciate our locations are very different but this is the first Nov-Feb period that I can EVER remember (and I'm 34) where, in my location, I have not had the opportunity to leave one single footprint in the snow.

Moderate snow again in Orpington, 10p size flakes just threatening to settle. Needs to keep this up though.