pureasthedriven
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
pureasthedriven replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That right there is why people who love snow obsess about snow. Rare, beautiful and peaceful. Stunning. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
pureasthedriven replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes to this. Like Jamie Oliver would say about one of his (yet again ‘best ever’) roast spuds - quite the spread. -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
pureasthedriven replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Not sure what you’ve had by way of snow - not much I guess, I got very lucky down here Sunday and the snow has barely moved all week. And that was after a really cold few days prior to that. Really significant and increasingly rare ‘proper’ cold spell. Which, staying just in topic, was modelled to break down days ago. Yes, I appreciate the set-up was different. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
pureasthedriven replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I dislike this run too but why is it suddenly the resolved solution? No more than it was settled for cold at 96. I’d be no less surprised to see overnight shifts back to cold. Appreciate that the general consensus in the more reliable is concerning but these are clearly super unusual macro synoptics. I’ve not quite given up in Christmas yet… -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
pureasthedriven replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Doesn’t that follow not lead though? -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
pureasthedriven replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Does run into a brick wall, mind… -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
pureasthedriven replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
75% palatable. Will take that for now. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
pureasthedriven replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That ain’t mild. It’s not frigid either but that’s a generous interpretation of mild, especially further north you go. That chart to me screams fork in the road. Could go very cold from there pretty quickly. The euro heights only become a scupperer without insufficient forcing from the north - which is clearly not resolved for this period at the current time. Chicken and egg and all that. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
pureasthedriven replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Light graupel shower in Sutton now as it happens. Nothing material but in respect of modelling … not modelled. -
10/10 for hedge betting from the MetO there. Falls into the ‘we might get wet but we might not’ category. As for that low, obviously they have all the data but surprised to see them so bullish about such a narrow geographical area for a system that’s clearly causing so much uncertainty in the modelling.
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
pureasthedriven replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In line with current MetO long ranger. Not that they’re both necessarily right, of course.