pureasthedriven

Quite.

If you live in London, at sea level, it needs to be notably cold. 2m temps between 0-2c and dew points at or below zero is notably cold. And that chart isn’t.

What’s more remarkable is that that isn’t delivering any notably cold weather. Would like to know what the surface conditions were for that 1940 chart...

Here’s a thing though. Look at that LP at the tip of Greenland and those Iberian heights in that screenshot. Just shows you what a proper Scandi high coupled with a proper Northem Italy low can do for you. All that talk about Greenie and Iberian heights, psstch...

When Exeter does an about turn in three consecutive updates, I don’t think we can have confidence anywhere. Be interesting to see what they say overnight because this evening’s runs don’t put much faith in their current narrative.

Really surprised how quickly Exeter flipped their mid-term analysis overnight. That was short-lived, even by their standards! Certainly shows a worrying degree of ‘confidence’ in the ‘somewhat below average to average’ mindset, supported by overnight suites.

I would say the data strongly points to below average. Which will deliver handsomely for some and not for others. I’ve not been collecting empirical data for my location (Gatwick) but would be very surprised if we’ve not been broadly below average - give or take - here since Dec 1st. And yet not a flake of snow to date.

Nope.

This is increasingly looking like a very favourable set up for the midlands north (if one can generalise like that). Battleground events look probable and the line for those battles are almost never drawn in the ‘south’ (for arguments sake, let’s say the M4 Boundary but probably a touch further than that. Just had a quick look at Exeter’s overnighter and despite their understandable fence-sitting, they’re not really having it, especially the further south you go. And looking at the suites this morning, not hard to see why.

Very much in tune with Exeter’s afternoon update. Let’s hope both are wide of the mark. Couldn’t give a toss about an average or below average CET month if it’s endless days of murk and cold rain.

Eh??

72 minutes.

Like I say directly above. Chilly rain.

I posted in here a week or so before Christmas to say ‘I’m out’ of model watching and the MOD thread after endless runs and commentary of day 10 potential; ‘until I see a snowflake in my area (Gatwick)’ I said. Well, I think I saw about 19 flakes on Weds so I’m as good as my word Had a quick look at the overnight runs across the model suites and exactly the same. Exactly the same. All about day 10+ potential. I would imagine if you’re in the northern ‘half’ of the UK, you’ve not only had plenty of interest so far but also have some interest through January. But as of today, I can’t see anything in the outlook that suggests anything other than average/slightly above/slightly below temps and plenty of chilly rain. Much like we had during this ‘cracking’ easterly this week. Spain just rubs it in. You need perfect Synoptics down here these days, and even then you can’t nail it on. I maintain that the ‘standard’ snow Synoptics of yore (when, for example, you could get a decent frontal snow event in the SE even from a mobile pm-westerly regime) are over. We can only speculate as to why. But having experienced weather-watching Groundhog Day again this morning, I’ll have another look in February. I fully expect to look on Feb 1st and see a BOOM chart for the 11th

Depends where you live. Not in my manor it isn’t!

I’m with you pal. Time to become re-infuriated with Gavin Williamson and get to grips with yet more changes for Jan, not content with having us basically work all through the Christmas ‘break’. The weather - in my very humble opinion coupled with years of experience of watching closely - is going nowhere fast for this region any time soon. If cold rain and the odd flake of wet snow floats your boat, fill your boots. I do get all the debate about ‘Synoptics vs Climate Change’ - I really do. However, as a child of the 70s and 80s I am convinced (convinced) that the Synoptics we are seeing now would have delivered a notably colder, and therefore snowier, set up. In other words, the ‘standard’ snow set up of yore doesn’t cut it any more. Now we need perfect/exceptional for sustained (Dec 2010) or freakishly lucky and rare (Feb 2018 - even that was mostly insipid in Gatwick). I clearly, clearly remember snow days from westerly regimes, albeit PM westerlys. Frontal snow. Anyway, one digresses without specific evidence and no doubt more data-informed folk could put me right. But I know I’m not wrong. See you on the other side - and hopefully before too long; but not before it’s actually snowed in this location.

That looks classically marginal to me. Unbelievably annoying. Edit, should’ve read Steve and Kold’s post first, apologies.

Yes, not without irony, could actually be a touch less cold next week...

Indeed - but we know what the basic bare minimum parameters are. I guess my point was if that chart actually materialised as is now, it’ll be borderline. The concurrent dew points are encouraging - just. We’re (royal we) are probably looking for something here that delivers region-wide rather than the usual caveats (elevation, etc) and early next week, as currently modelled across the suites, doesn’t give me huge confidence. But as you say, it’ll probably come down to micro-detail at the time. The biggest thing we need for once is a bit of luck!

Thanks. Not much room for error but at least showing on the right side of marginal in the main.

That is the absolute bare minimum of what we’ll need. A real possibility of nasty, wet winteriness with that set up. She could be right... How soon can we get forecast DPs for the same period?

Oh, I’m all about the mean. That’s excellent. Good alignment with Exeter, too.

Ice, I’d imagine. Tonight’s effort has all the hallmarks of a drizzle/snizzle layer, quick clearance and clear skies. But let’s hope Yamkin’s infiltrated!

And completely hopeless for southern counties of England. ‘Nationwide’ snow event that ain’t - I appreciate London is like a different country but still part of the UK last time I looked!

Yes, if the LP subsequently takes that track then happy days...