pureasthedriven

On that chart alone, far too marginal for me for the south of M4 tribe. Too much mixing, air source too unremarkable.

These are 2m air temps? Average doesn’t creep above 5c until right at the end of the suite?

Like they said last night for tomorrow. That said, looks like more of an easterly feed for us next week, which improves our potential lot considerably.

That’s tomorrow evening, btw.

No, I really don’t. I’m sure you can read my cynicism in the posts. Obviously they’re responding to the fluctuating outcomes presented by the models, not leading the way... But even so, I’m still curious to know what they’re responding to.

Only what’s modelled though. In reality, I’d expect decent convection out of that and a good chance of inland snow showers.

Ooh, hang on! Sorry, will stop now. Annoying. But a glimmer...

And it’s a forecast for ten days time. He talks about it as if it’s a given.

Depends on the track that Scandi trough takes next though? Not nailed on it would track SSW from there - albeit could use a bit more eastern flank resistance from the AHP.

Beats day 10 for once

Dangerously close to a UK high that... But Exeter makes me keep the faith.

Quoting myself here, apologies, but this app has been showing this for tomorrow and Thursday for the last five days. Not interested. Hopefully wrong but still interested to know what drives the ‘predictions’ (yes, I know they change like the wind, yes I know they’re no substitute for high-res short term models and yes, I know it’s not the best way to try and forecast the weather). But, if the ECM + everything vs Harmonie and a scrap of GFS is correct on this for tomorrow/Thurs, then not without note.

Give me some short term love please! When does 2 months hence ever come off?!

Crikey, you’re not wrong there, that’s outstanding for the MetO. Not only do they shift the ‘rather cold’ and slightly change emphasis on ‘exceptionally’ cold, the notes about ‘precipitation’ (ie chance of snow) spreading north from the continent very suggestive of an easterly. In the game now.

Yep, like I said this morning, once this model loses interest, so do I. Until then? No.

Change their mind more than Boris. I would say as the app as go (I know, I know...) from a purely temp trend perspective over time, the one on my iPhone does a reasonable job. For example, flagged the chilly Christmas Eve/Day period way in advance. So what do they use..?

And it’s the BBC who don’t even show snow when it’s actually snowing

Perfectly explained dribbling, thanks.

And our trusty MetO one from the middle. I know where my money would be...

We’ve not been in arctic winds though. And I’ve beat you to it with the G&T

Did post this a couple of days ago but here’s the GFS chart for 31st 19:00 from 16th Dec. There are some obvious differences to today’s 06z for the same day and time but overall in terms of ‘broad mesoscale pattern’, pretty impressive, I’d say. And yes, I’m aware the 31st hasn’t happened yet!

Well, indeed. Always a tendency over there to bemoan the breakdown before the cold has even properly started! As far as this region is concerned, into next weekend still looks to have a lot of interest and my focus is only on that. Get to that modelled point and then the 10+ day period will be different anyway.

Overnight runs definitely saw a shift in emphasis in the models, but it’s just one suite and the 18z last night was outlandish, frankly. Having a quick skim through the 00z there does seem to be an emerging tendency to slow any retrogression of heights into Greenland/Iceland down a bit and begin to introduce the idea of Iberian heights. MetO text update keeping its feet on the floor but even then, still references the chance of ‘very cold’ conditions into mid Jan - not often they do that. All to play for going forward I think but this period between Christmas and New Year always looked like bonus territory for us down here anyway.

If Harmonie is on board, we have half a chance. Lose that one, and...

As per MetO overnight text update for our region. Talk about avoid the issue!