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Utahraptor

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    Storm and Convective Discussion 23rd June Onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Utahraptor

    Night time storms unlikely as instability under the current setup is generated with diurnal heating over landmass during the day.  As solar input wanes so too does the instability.  

     

    Another decent risk of slow-moving air mass storms for many parts of the UK tomorrow afternoon into evening, with perhaps region of particular interest being toward the eastern side of the country (going on current modeling) where those light low-level winds converge as heating of landmass builds throughout the day. Recent GFS outputs again modeling SBCAPE possibly to several 100j/kg where heating and decent moisture build-up (surface DPs within the 12-14C range) is overlapped by cool mid-levels, steepening overall environmental lapse rates.

     

    Light winds throughout most of the profile (aside from the 300hPa jet) means significant weather unlikely in terms of storm longevity and severity, though storms could well organise along convergence zone(s) or shortwave troughs and promote build-up of further storms in their vicinity, increasing the risk of rather high spot RF rates and subsequent flash flooding. Added to that, light converging low-level winds, fairly moist low-level air mass and reasonably low LCLs brings the risk of funnel cloud/spout development with particularly buoyant updrafts.  

    Aw, that's a disappointment, I would have loved another nice nocturnal thunderstorm.

    I'm still satisfied with the weather I got so far this weekend, though

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