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Utahraptor

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Posts posted by Utahraptor

  1. Those in ROI maybe more interested in this:

     

    Valid: 31/07/2013 1000z to 01/08/2013 0600z

    Headline: ... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FORECAST ...

     

    Posted Imageconvmap_310713.jpg

    Synopsis

    A slow-moving long-wave upper trough continues to amplify to the W and NW of Europe, warm air advection spreads north today behind warm front lifting north across the UK and Ireland this morning. A cold front moves in from the SW across Ireland this afternoon into an increasingly warm, humid and unstable airmass across Ireland and SW UK.

    SLIGHT RISK FOR IRELAND

    Warm and moist airmass will advect north across Ireland and Sern UK this afternoon behind warm front lifting north, with a plume of steeper lapse rates moving in from the SW across Ireland and SW UK at the same time. If the general cloudiness across Ireland clears this afternoon from the SW, then insolation will likely create an increasingly unstable atmosphere as lapse rates steepen atop of warm/moist airmass, with CAPE values of 500-900 j/kg possibly realised. If convection does develop, it will do so in an environment characterised by moderate deep layer shear with values of 30 to 50 knts and low-level shear of  20-30 knts ahead of approaching cold front. So any storm developing may have the potential to rapidly organise into line segments towards the cold front, with perhaps a supercell or two where cells are more discrete. Any storms may bring the risk of strong wind gusts, excessive rainfall with risk of flash-flooding and hail. Given low Lifted Condensation Levels (LCLs) below 600m, an increasingly moist boundary layer and marked backing of surface winds, strong storm-relative helicity could mean stronger updrafts produce rotating mesocyclones - perhaps lowering to produce a tornado or two. Therefore have issued a SLIGHT risk for Ireland.

    SW ENGLAND, WALES and THE MIDLANDS

    A more isolated risk of convection here this afternoon where cloud breaks occur above an increasingly warm and humid airmass, lapse rates may steepen enough to allow rising parcels high enough to form heavy showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, with a risk of gusty winds, hail and flash-flooding.

    Issued by: Nick Finnis

    If only the risk was more to the north :( This would be great to see!

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