Mike Poole

ECM T168 and it is going under:

I’m actually starting to get confused by watching the colours (z500 heights) rather than the contours (surface pressure). The role of wedges of higher surface pressure seem important to this evolution.

Hmmm, not quite what I was expecting T144, seems to stall out west. So that ‘something else’ as per my previous post! Still a wedge for it to slide under.

Yes quite, does this go under, or collide with the cold air in situ causing a massive snowfest or something else...

ECM T120 compared with GEM Same track of the lows, under the cold block, but deeper = more snow?

Should slide anyway, we’ll soon see.

ECM T96 compared with GEM: Get in there, back of the net!

The GEM ensembles are terrible! Not so the op, which had an upgrade a couple of years ago. It’s my number 3 model.

ECM T72, just a little slower to clear the low SE than GEM

Yes, we saw earlier in the season the GFS doing well in situations it is good at. This is not one of them. It ALWAYS overblows lows, and this is a real problem when they are sliding under a block. It cannot be trusted here. I would look to UKMO, ECM and GEM here, always.

GEM gets off to a very good start at T96: -16C line not that far away, really!

I’ve been lapped by the models, LOL . Still 10+ pages of comment I haven’t had time to read! UKMO looks excellent T144, low incoming might look ominous to some, but sure it would slide. And that 1070 high is something else. I’ve only ever seen that over Greenland, and there are reasons there why the high pressure is overstated (height of the surface),

Good runs on the 18z. But I’m jaffa cakesed off. Businesses that know about this should be taking action, re both the weather and the coronavirus. Are they? In the case of the business I work for, NO!! Edit, forgot about the Jaffa Cakes lol!

Look, you can shoot me down, call me whatever you want if I’m wrong about this, but it isn’t going down like this: T174 that big fish ain’t happening. Learning point, ECM and UKMO can handle sliding lows...

Early signs a good 18z pub run,

Hey, pub run T90; Greenland high, cross polar flow, weakening features going under right now!

No but you can see here at T120 there isn’t any precipitation at all:

l love the way on this one (ICON T I was going to post something, but then decided not to bother...come on guys can we discuss the massive opportunities ahead?

ECM clusters T192-T240: Which would you kick out of bed for farting? They all have promise...

ECM 144 and T240 mean: T144 is what we know, but the signal is lost in the T240, so I looked at the uncertainty, the spread, and it is massive, and everywhere, the models just don’t know what to do beyond day 6. Apart from the high lat block regions of course...

I really can’t see this breakdown scenario any time soon. I know the models show it, they always do, but it will correct. The background signals portend a longer period of cold as per my post above, that might or might not come to pass, but this is due to the SSW, and there has been close to another one since, so maybe weather on the ground will be driven by this for 4 weeks or more...those saying it is a 5 day affair are wrong in ,my opinion, but we will see...

Looking at the later output of all models (and ECM T216 which just looks ridiculous and not worth posting, not in a cold or mild way I hasten to add), I think by about day 5, Sunday into Monday, I think the models will be able to chart the way forward. For now that longer timescale is clouded by FI fog! I think given the drivers, the SSW being felt at max penetration to the trop right now, the MJO, the increase in AAM, CFS take, but I’m accepting it: And the SSTs, someone asked earlier: Still warm enough, above average, to facilitate convection...

ECM T168 Well, I think it might be more disorganised than the UKMO but the same picture is being painted, basically a reverse circulation around a quite oddly shaped proportion of the NH, which would imply lows continue to go under.

ECM T120 v UKMO Peas in a pod, have to choose, I like ECM profile to the north a bit better, and the trough into Italy better.