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Mike Poole

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Everything posted by Mike Poole

  1. Mike Poole
    GFS T78 compared to 6z T84: Looks like more space to escape SE on this one?
  2. Mike Poole
    Yes, it is a question of what our baseline expectation is coming into this 12z suite, for me a period of easterly winds with -8 uppers or below country wide is the bar now, given the runs we have seen in recent days. Yes ECM 0z was probably the best to hope for, but I’d be looking for more than what ICON delivers. On to the GFS, this one really does matter.
  3. Mike Poole
    No probably not now, but I’d be more comfortable with more margin of error like ECM 0z.
  4. Mike Poole
    ICON T132 - oh dear! These two lows are getting too close together for my liking.
  5. Mike Poole
    ECM T144 and we are laughing
  6. Mike Poole
    ECM T120 compared to GFS, low much weaker, and much more separated from the low in the atlantic. Rest of NH profile fine, but that wasn’t in doubt.
  7. Mike Poole
    ECM T96 compared to GFS: Further south, and I think we’ll be OK on this run, should know at T144...
  8. Mike Poole
    The big 3 at T72: The low (see size of <1005 hPa) weaker on ECM than UKMO, and UKMO weaker than GFS.
  9. Mike Poole
    A return to westerlies in the strat could well flush the easterlies down to the trop more, but it will take time, the effects of the SSW will probably still be felt in the trop into March, in my opinion. However, what that means for the UK is far from clear.
  10. Mike Poole
    Yes, my first post this morning was at T72 and there was a significant difference between UKMO and GFS even then. Normally one wouldn’t post the T72!
  11. Mike Poole
    GEM excellent at T144, the low has pulled away and it is business as usual with the next low sliding:
  12. Mike Poole
    GFS // good in the end, but the spoiler low still there at T144, all good by T192, but this thing is on an absolute knife edge for the south now. North and Scotland probably nailed on easterly by now.
  13. Mike Poole
    T850s on UKMO fine at T144, but ideally you’d want the low further south so there isn’t any question. This run is fine, but it is just a worry that half the envelope of uncertainty isn’t fine now!
  14. Mike Poole
    UKMO at T144: GFS at T144: This is going horribly wrong now, the low hasn’t cleared and the next lows instead of going under could phase and turn into a nightmare scenario:
  15. Mike Poole
    Would like to see the low bit further south than that though, probably OK, but want to check the uppers when available for the SE.
  16. Mike Poole
    GFS and UKMO T120, and I think both will clear the low SE at last:
  17. Mike Poole
    GFS and UKMO T96: The low on UKMO just needs to move SE, GFS a bit more diffuse.
  18. Mike Poole
    GFS and UKMO at T72: More dissimilar than I would expect at that range, the roller coaster starts again.
  19. Mike Poole
    T180 leads to an absolutely bonkers combination: Pick the bones out of that, and i will see you in the morning.
  20. Mike Poole
    Where have i seen this before? Oh, yes the GFS 12z run. T144 on pub run, getting too close to ignore now folks...
  21. Mike Poole
    GFS pub run T120: All good I think!
  22. Mike Poole
    GFS 18z T90 v 12z T96 It isn’t the pesky lows that bothers me here, it is the link to the Arctic high, should we be getting cut off from this so early. Still, the long draw is there, but one to watch nonetheless.
  23. Mike Poole
    ICON T108, low issue cleared, roll on Narnia: (if only it was that simple):
  24. Mike Poole
    Probably worth at least discussing the T192-T240 clusters even though there are 6 of them: Cluster 1 is excellent, clusters 3, 4 and 5 are great, the other two don’t get a clean continued source of cold air to the UK. But discussion of these is a bit academic, the reason there are 6 is because there is massive uncertainty earlier on...we will see...
  25. Mike Poole
    What and miss all the snow with it going into the channel Island's? It’s happened before!!!! Edit: for clarity i was responding to the comments on my annotated charts, I have no worries at all about this upcoming event ending just in the Channel Islands! No way!
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