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Mike Poole

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Everything posted by Mike Poole

  1. Mike Poole
    I think it's worth posting in some detail, the ECM 12z ensemble mean charts. Let's take the 850 temps first, here from T72 on: Not above 0C anywhere. Now the pressure/heights Swing back out west here (T92) but then Looks like prolonging the cold to me.
  2. Mike Poole
    It does, but I think it lost the plot some time before these charts!
  3. Mike Poole
    GFS not quite with the new trend, here still showing the freezing rain risk for the south at T102 Further west than other 12s so far at T114
  4. Mike Poole
    It may mean extension of the cold period country wide, possibly at the expense of a massive blizzard for the south and south west, if this is a new trend.
  5. Mike Poole
    Yep, further south at T72 on GFS too
  6. Mike Poole
    ICON more elongated at T99 edging towards holding the cold UKMO edging the same way at T96
  7. Mike Poole
    I think the 12s today are going to be quite important. ICON edging in very cold air, here at T54, looks a bit colder than recent runs to me - and a bit like a dragon incoming! Here's the low at at T72
  8. Mike Poole
    Early signs good if the ICON is on the money, in this run, here at T120
  9. Mike Poole
    Well, the ECM ensembles mean, start at T96 All good. Still cold air at T192, but still signal for depressions in the channel, somewhere could get plastered.
  10. Mike Poole
    This looking like a total white knuckle ride, but the ECM T240 has us back in the cold, unstable flow, bring it on!
  11. Mike Poole
    ECM at T192, look how closely balanced this thing is now, with T850s just holding on below freezing, and absolute mayhem from the pressure charts : Admittedly posted with a nimby aspect to it!
  12. Mike Poole
    Key timeframe now, T 92 on the ECM. This represents a significant shift south from recent output and by and large follows the UKMO. I've been sceptical of this trend to take the low north since Friday's GFS 18z, and it now looks like the major models are backtracking. Still much to play for, still much that can go wrong.
  13. Mike Poole
    GEFS mean at T90, 12z compared to 6z, 12z first. Forget the low for a minute, is there a delay in the retrogression of the high towards Greenland? I think slightly. This is important because it may put more force on the low to take a more southerly track.
  14. Mike Poole
    UKMO looks quite a bit further south with the low at T96
  15. Mike Poole
    Freezing rain also shows up on the GFS 6z, in Central Southern England - this certainly is not something we could do with, it could cause chaos: The purple hatched area is freezing rain. Obviously it's still 5 days away, but it's in the mix of possibilities. Personally, I still think this low will be further South than the models are showing currently, we'll see.
  16. Mike Poole
    GEFS ensemble mean at T144 might just calm the nerves: Still think this will go further south, we'll see!
  17. Mike Poole
    Christ, we've got a dragon coming in on this one - pub run at T336, think the horse might have bolted by this point, hey ho.
  18. Mike Poole
    GFS at T138' well the idea of the two mini lows following behind look nice I guess, but the whole thing is 200 miles too far north, at least: Meanwhile, ICON cold until the end of it's short run, here at T108 and T120, but where is the low going? That's still the question. Over to the graveyard shift for further elucidation.
  19. Mike Poole
    The chart we want to see is the Friday T144 one, and here it is: This doesn't look the best, to be honest. Not at all sure where this goes from here?
  20. Mike Poole
    ECM out at T72 and again a beast is heading towards us, this one seems to have rather too many front feet for my liking. That's a bit weird, no?
  21. Mike Poole
    So, the GFS is keeping the cold for the north and midlands, still too energetic maybe? And what do we make of this in the wings??? No it's going balls up again, it at least it tried this time.
  22. Mike Poole
    I think this is a better run from GFS, at T162, the cold holds, just, and we get this:
  23. Mike Poole
    So, before the 12z's roll, what's the state of play re the low at the end of the week. Time is Friday morning, here's GFS: Here's UKMO: Here's ECM: Two things occur to me, first, the GFS is a very round low, the other two are more oval shaped, second the GFS has 1065 over Greenland and the others have slightly lower pressure. I'm suggesting the GFS is overdoing things here, and would expect it to backtrack to the UKMO or ECM solution over upcoming runs. We'll see starting with the 12s.
  24. Mike Poole
    Taken a while to catch up with all the posts this morning! Incredible period of model watching, best since I joined Netweather. My thoughts are that the GFS has been poor since the 18z - not poor for cold, poor for snow, or poor for any location - just poor in the sense that it hasn't got a sodding clue what to do with that low. I'm inclined to (try to!) ignore it for the next few runs and see if the UKMO and ECM can converge on some kind of consistency. But the low at the end of the week is only part of the story, it would be criminal if we were all in here berating the GFS, and not enjoying the incredible weather during the early part of next week!
  25. Mike Poole
    Now this is interesting (and what I meant to post last time, sorry as many beers as the 18z!) the GEFS ensemble mean, firming up support for the channel low, this just T180
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