Mike Poole

Breaking news, the 18z maybe in fruitcake land, but the GEFS control is very interesting at T180, is this low really happening in this cold air? Deep breath!

GFS 18z is a totally nonsense run. The T132 to T150 period looks very dodgy to me and so I think the rest of the run can be discounted as too many pints in the pub, a dodgy rancid kebab and a massive chunder!

I'm not sure I'm convinced by this evolution on the GFS 18z, what does anyone else think? T132: T150: Snowy that it may be.

OK so at T108 it looks like a giant freezing alien purple splodge is headed straight for us. Collision course! Welcome to our shores, my friend. Mind how you go.

Now for the pub run. I think that with the extreme cold incoming nailed, attention will shift to the potential channel low, shown on ECM 12z at T 168. Good to see ICON and ARPEGE in line on the earlier stuff, by the way. I'm also interested in the peak depth of cold on Thursday, it could be the coldest air to make it to our shores in over 30 years. Roll on GFS!

ICON at T60, looks like it's coming on board, shift north compared to 12z: 12z:

ECM ensemble mean at T168. This channel or Northern France feature seems likely, it's more a question of the track, fascinating model watching! And T240 mean looks interesting with the cold still firmly in place:

Holy freaking fish fingers! Is this best part of 3 day blizzard, how much snow from this? ECM at T 216. Cold air firmly in place still.

Whoah, channel low incoming at T168

John, BB6263 posted the coldest 850 temps charts for pretty much all the major cold spells including that one since the 19th century - I think it's on P104 of this thread. I found it interesting that if Thursday, which is 1 March!, verifies as some of the models, you have to go back to January 1987 to find colder air reaching the UK.

Here is the ECM ensemble T192 which has bed-wetting potential

ECM mean at T138, words fail me

Holy shot where did the come from GFS T180 (Missed the I key in my excitement)

Is it just me or is this a PAC MAN about to swallow the UK at T132

Woooooah beast, look at the head on that at T108

Late to it tonight, and just starting to view the commentry here on the ECM and then the crash. So I knew what to expect before even looking at Meteoceil! In my view this is nearly nailed which is good because as resident weather geek, I've promised an update to work colleagues tomorrow. Would like to see the ARPEGE issue sorted by the 0z runs - it's a decent model for the short timescale it runs for and I'd like it on board. Aside - this event is seriously unreported in my view, particularly BBC. looking forward to the 18z!

The pub run at T150 unleashes a herd of undead frozen, wildebeests of cold galloping directly at the UK across a frozen sea, what next, a full blown zombie apocalypse? One such beast pictured here

The pub run - well it's the new going out, isn't it? What do we want from this one, it has got a hard act to follow after the last few nights, but I'd settle for broadly following the ECM 12z, and then maybe some outrageous snow charts in the latter frames, just for fun. given ECM ens I expect a good one! ICON rolling, similar to the last run so far:

Having drawn breath, time to rerun the key part of the ECM 12z, starting at T144, though to T216. I'm astonished at the 'speed' that the high scoots across from Scandinavia to Gfeenland, and even beyond, dragging oodles of instability in it's wake, of course with freezing cold air over the UK in place. Charts: I'd like to see some intermediate charts between these!

The epiglottis opens at T168 on ECM. And spewed towards the UK is a torrent of frigid air: -16 uppers incoming perhaps? This is the middle ground at the moment.

Some odd posts today, but each to his/her own! Just before the 12's roll, let's have a look at the easterly in all it's glory, from the GFS 6z and ensembles (using Tableaux GEFS on Meteociel): If that represents a failed easterly, my backside's a fire engine. (To slightly misquote cricket commentator David Lloyd).

Spin my nipple nuts and send me to Alaska! - my reaction on the pub run so far tonight (not sure that would help me enjoy the cold spell though!) (original quote Kryten in Red Dwarf) T192 Surely this is going t end in mayhem!

I think it's going there, Greenland, early ! T 150 The bottom chart is not to do with me but I can't delete it! Ali - I think we've crossed wavelengths!

Big beast waiting in the wings at T120

GFS possibly a little further north at T66, 18 and 12: Or maybe faIrly close on second look.