Snowy L
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Everything posted by Snowy L
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Snowy L replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lesson learned, don't trust models with names like BOM. Massively overestimated MJO signal. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Snowy L replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is good but 2010 was a whole other beast. That PV chunk over Scandi on your charts was actually over the UK in 2010, dropped directly down from the North Pole. It's what allowed a rare westerly lake effect event for Northwest England. Won't be seen again for a very long time imo, but will make do with what the GFS 18z is offering -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Snowy L replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let's just hope 00zs don't reset everything again, though I like the fact it's multiple models picking up on this Atlantic ridge signal now. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Snowy L replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another day of 06z, 12z and, 18z clawing back what the 00z took from us again. How is this happening every day? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Snowy L replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lake effect snowmaker upper low incoming. -
Snow and cold by far and away the best to have. Mild and unsettled is absolutely horrific, especially if Spring is poor as well, then you've essentially had a 9 month block of monotonous miserable rubbish. The other 2 I can understand.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Snowy L replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
After seeing the huge BFTE being blown away with ease by a small low in 2018 I've never believed the cold is hard to shift myth, that was a rude awakening. With this cold spell though I do think there could be surprises, because we have positive reinforcements e.g. Canadian warming after the jet fires up, as opposed to waiting the inevitable after our initial block loses strength. If those reinforcements can affect the jet on time there's no reason we can't stay in the cold side. As said a few days ago the timing of those conflicting interactions will result in the messiest charts ever. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Snowy L replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's a significant cold cluster at least, what's that 65/35 in favour of mild. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Snowy L replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Canadian warming event happening immediately after the jet stream getting a bit more power is a recipe for the messiest charts ever. I'd back a return to mild at least temporarily, but not surprised LPs are suddenly fizzling out to the North of the UK in 2nd week of December. Model watching is going to be mad in the next week. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Snowy L replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let's hope we have a case of models not yet taking it into account as much as they should do until it's actually happened. Would be very well timed with our first block fading around that time. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Snowy L replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's fractions of a degree lower than the tightly packed bunch of members. Main takeaway is it is with a large cluster of colder members.