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Everything posted by Skullzrulerz
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As much as I love too to get hyped over a Easterly 2.0 that actually happens but before it happens we need to get cross model agreement/trend towards this I don't think we would want a huge disappointment again won't we
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Sounds familiar
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It's the ECM in disguise
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To be fair to some there was some what of agreement between the models then it all went downhill to make long story short Of course they could appear again soon but who knows I would never get hype unless they was cross model agreement Lets see the next few models to see if the GFS is on to something
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Can you show chart please ?
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ECM "you expecting a northerly?" Nah why don't you have some lovely mild lush instead
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ECM rolling out now? Let's see what's in store
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Hopefully this Easterly will second lucky but meh who knows Time is running out for a cold spell unfortunately we better start getting luck soon
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Have to agree with this as a few days even it was a fair bit busier but now it's like ermmmm empty ? Not to mention it's confusing knowing the post where
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You're kidding me right ? We're back to looking at FI land again which over 95% never comes close... Time is nearly up for this winter
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Has there been any noteworthy news on GFS/ICON?
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We shall soon find if it's enough which I don't think will be the case unfortunately -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But what does this mean ? -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just because the BFTE isn't happening doesn't mean it won't snow per Tuesday event and next week -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Before we say it's game over ? Is it not best to see what the ECM does this weekend before it's really over ? A fair bit of bad moods around this morning they I can understand why since there was a heaven of cold just to be sent to below -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It seems we are having quite a wobble with the models Gone is the beast from the east or the cold spell which brought back the memories of yesteryear Now depending on which models you are looking at GFS/UKMO still show a decent cold spell but not what it showed a few days ago ECM is pretty much worse with just a tap and you will miss it However there is still time till it's a done deal is it not ? Give it to this weekend before making a decision if it's get better or worse the weather will do what it wants End of story -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Great Run From The GFS and a fair improvement on the GFSP so far as we speak However I'm still not getting excited for two reasons Once it's in very reliable timeframe Two The ECM has to come on board since the GFS has been not so great lately. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Unfortunately I don't see that it's just about enough that it doesn't go all hay wire intact by 144 less cold air trying to take back the UK from the SW -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No question about it in just a hours time we see either it sticking to its guns or joins some if not to a flatter pattern -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Personally I see a VERY important ECM tonight It needs to stay on track but it's starts going off track I think its best to say that this so called beast from the east will be just a cold spell GFS Ensembles also support earlier run with a Westerly this is not done deal by a long short -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Man it's so confusing in here it's unbelievable ? Is this a downgrade/upgrade ???? -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can you explain please ? -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would still urge to be careful at the moment as some models are still not supporting the idea of "severe cold" to put it ... Let's hope we don't have a huge disappointment due to ramping -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
After a somewhat awful morning it seems by nights end it has become great ! Knowing our luck it will go down a bit overnight and back to where we are now this time tomorrow? -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Skullzrulerz replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And this is why you shouldn't ramp one run and overnight it has decided to downgrade Now hopefully it's just a bilp but to be fair the GFS even though it has been bashed to oblivion...it could be right so I wouldn't discount it