[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Not a bad little met office update for us southerners, seems we are in the race also.

 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jan 2019 to Thursday 31 Jan 2019:

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow for many areas on Tuesday with a chance of snow to low levels but the details of this are currently uncertain. Strong winds are also possible in the southwest. Showery conditions will follow although some brighter weather is also possible later in the week. Thereafter, remaining cold and possibly turning very cold, accentuated by brisk winds which will last through until the end of January. Frontal zones may arrive from the northwest at times bringing spells of rain, sleet and snow. However, some drier and brighter interludes are still likely and these will bring overnight frosts, which will be widespread and locally severe, especially in any longer clear spells.

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2019 to Friday 15 Feb 2019:

Cold and sometimes very cold weather will continue as we head through the first half of February. It is likely to remain changeable too, especially at first, bringing strong winds and spells of rain which will turn to snow at times. Snow especially over higher ground but there is a greater risk to lower levels too with the cold air in place. Some drier and brighter periods are possible as well, perhaps becoming focused across the northwest with time. Occasional milder and wetter interludes may intersperse the generally cold conditions, these most likely in the south but also posing a more significant risk of snow.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

We need to be really careful here of not falling into the trap of talking total nonsense!

Even JMA going for it, T192:

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good of Catacol to bring up Feb 1996 and let me relive a very traumatic experience ! ! I’m suing for damages !

The infamous slider which slid off giving me three minutes of snow when I lived in Wimbledon ! In the meantime many western areas and indeed basically everywhere bar the east got plastered !

I remember vividly watching the BBC weather every bulletin to see if the damn precip was moving any further east . It just refused .

Anyway very enjoyable and informative posts Cat, thanks  , I’ll forgive the 1996 reminder !

The slider slid off

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

4 minutes ago, Starsail said:

Have deleted most of the text from Catacols post to save space but this in one fantastic post. Easy to understand, very educational and well written. What makes it perfect is that this could actually happen in the next few weeks. Thanks Catacol.

This is not to forget about some of the fantastic contributions from others in recent days. Steve Murr, Nick Sussex, Bluearmy, John Holmes etc (and my personal favourite Tight Isobar). I have been a reader of this forum since 2009 and when an upcoming cold spell looks likely to verify there is no better place to be. I remember being on the Weather Outlook before the cold spell of 2010 and a poster called Retron posted an emsemble watch each day that counted down to the cold spell. Steve Murr contributed then too. These contributions live in the memory as much as the cold spells themselves

Well said, totally agree. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

19 minutes ago, EastAnglian said:

I am no expert just have a long and painful experience of model watching. The absolute maximum would be 5 days but I would say 2/3 was safer. If you look at other forecasts on TV, for example, take note of how far they are going ahead that will give you an idea of how confident the professionals are. Basically, if it can go wrong it will.

Might go right this time with all the signals looking strong. Perhaps we will start to see a few upgrades shortly now it’s moving into the reliable.

[Model banter returns]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Country wide snow (feet in places), blizzards, severe drifting , ice days, and 100% carnage on the roads and rail system. Especially hard hit in the East and South. 

It wouldn’t be melting the day after neither, severe frost (-15c in place ) once it all settled down and the LP moves off 

Better get stocked up on bread and water then (and gin)

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I’ll take something like ensemble member 1 please, just look at this run, outrageous, uppers not the best but still mad

Lovely, all good things come to those who wait

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

7 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

My hunch is we are going to have a near miss winter with the coldest air continuing to plague Central and Southern Europe, that’s my prediction,,,keep me in mind with my comment.

Bookmarked, when we are all a few feet under snow I’ll bump it

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nice spot Kev

Fingers crossed these positive background signals manifest themselves in NWP products soon..

Catacol said yesterday he is digging out his de-icer and scraper and checking where his wellies and shovel are. Last time he said that was in February and we all know what happened next so keep the faith

edit that was meant as a reply to Jethro, wrong quote, sorry.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

I wonder if New Years Day 2019 will be the day the scales tipped in our favour, before then lots of waiting and disappointment. Maybe now the SSW has happened and with the vortex splitting the models will only get better from now, and the excitement will build in this place, we have waited patiently and deserve it! Reminds me a little of what happened earlier in Feb / March 2018 after the SSW the models got progressively more bullish by the day and would not back down.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

None of the effects of the SSW where ever really predicted to come into range until about the 15th, finally starting to appear on the models now, exciting times ahead for coldies. Looking good at the moment, fingers crossed. Happy new year 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Devon and Cornwall now the sweet spot for remaining snow, how often can you say that, perhaps once in a lifetime. 

After being in the absolute middle of a red warning just a few weeks ago, wish the best for everyone, its a brilliant feeling when the stars align. Good luck to everyone im the south, enjoy the show / snow

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

4 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

 

From an IMBY snow perspective, I'd say this winter officially beats 2010.

Kinda agree, only downer i can put on this one, is tempratures rise after the snow and it goes away quick, if my memory of 2010 is right, it snowed and stayed cold a bit after, so the snow hung around for a bit.  Thats all thats missing for me to call this  one better imo.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

4 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

As other fellow Bristolians have already said, this snow is insane! Heaviest snow of the winter by far.

Beast has come back and said sorry I missed Devon and Cornwall last time, and she wants to go out in style. Like a good firework display, leave the best one till last. What an amazing performance from the beast!!!  Sorry Im rambling now lol. As said before a truelly  lifetime memorable event.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Just now, kumquat said:

Still hammering down here. Amazing!!

Same here. And met o app says heavy snow for another four hours.. Complete white out here already. Middle of march, really amazing??

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Beasts from the easts are the best, dont respect any pre-detirmend barriers such as the damn M4.

lovely too see places like devon and cornwall getting into the action. 

Been a real memorable event, very emotional, im worn out from it all lol, but when it delivers, worth every moment <3

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Just now, Blizzardof82 said:

Did someone order a white Easter? GFS 18z says yes

Go on then, if you insist

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

9 minutes ago, Ciderwithrosie said:

Oooh that's going o be fun in the morning isn't it ?! 

Yes!! Still chucking it down  thing is we dont get any gritting or snow plows, so kinda causes a bit more choas than normal. First beast we got snowed in for a few days, we had tractors going around  (just the goodwill of the local farmers) with plows pushing the snow off the road, they did it just too help out, the village was really busy and everyone was extra friendly and all the kids really happy, was a good vibe and a nice sprit amongst people. This time not so much, have not seen a soul for two or three hours. Maybe just a little bit of excitement has gone for some people. Almost me included because i love the sun and warmth equally, but would not say no to beast pt 3 for easter

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

9 minutes ago, Smartie said:

 

Very jealous, zilch here so far from this band moving west although the heavy precipitation is so good damn close. 

Sorry, been in your shoes many times. Hope the cards fall for you

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Wifey just gone to bed; i've promised i'll follow in 30 mins after just one more guinness. But at the age of 56 i'm a big kid when it comes to snow and i cant stop staring out of window watching it fall. Magical, just magical

Yea wife in GF in bed too, did not promise her anything lol, think she knows will not be going to bed till late. Its so rare, we might not see it for a while, so my attitude is no way am I missing it.  im deffo more excited than the kids,, they are kinda excited by it, good to be young at heart I suppose

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Love it when it is snowing so hard at night and you dont need to look at lampost to see it falling outside your window

Yea same, not quite curtain twitching as much as usual atm, kinda secure that its falling heavy and unlikely to stop, nice feeling

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

Sorry Karlos for borrowing your phrase but.

Lloyds TSB, Barclays, Natwest. BANK

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, Argyle1980 said:

Awesome, a thing of beauty. Thanks mate..... looks like I’m gonna be up for a while now ?

Its all heading your way

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Thanks ? says we have heavy snow 12 n 1 then light at 2 what’s it show at 1? Ta 

Here you go...

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards]

5 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Could someone just screenshot a decent radar image for me please meto say we have few more hours but on the free radar I looked at it’s nearly over for us, thanks 

Here you go. Can scroll forward to future a bit if you like too?