[Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

as long its during the day i'm ok with it

hoping we get something  

[Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards]

Sferic to my South East (Cardiff) , can't hear the thunder but really really dark that way.

[Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards]

Seeing that convergence (if that's what it is,) in SE Wales now, ~ one of the showers is heading directly north , others heading North East  

[Storms and convective discussion - 1st April 2021 onwards]

Heard some thunder in SE Wales earlier, nothing showed up on Blitz although it did show up on NW radar. 

Although the initial lines of showers and storms have moved North, quite juiced up showers seem to be developing behind them. 

Not really sure about the slightly thundery Rain in the SW of UK, heading NE, is it likely to increasingly thundery?

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

2 minutes ago, SnoFlakeEar said:

Think you may answered your own question there.  ICON 12Z maybe a bust but how many times have the models majorly backtracked in the 96-120 hrs period? So not all lost just yet? GFS 12Z keeps interest.

yes, we saw that Thursday was the day that the atlantic was going to take over.. then Friday.. then Sunday .. and now on the verge of Monday 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Just now, StingJet said:

Fax 12z detailing some beautiful Convergence lines (streamers) with significant east to west penetration

Even way out west here on the IoA. North Wales

 

Is that for today?

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Let's all hold on to our winter hats for the next GFS (should start to come out in 30mins) 

on the snow scene, we had a terrible 18z ,.. an amazing 0z .. and a meh meh 06z 

All of which are considerably better than a few days ago when the models were ready to give us a John Candy atlantic low.. by Thursday
there's absolutely no knowing what will happen after this weekend.



 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

47 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

Has nobody noticed that the Atlantic is broken?  Up on blocks so to speak.  Factor in good coupling post multiple SSW’s and any “breakdown” just means snow.  We are not having anything mild or zonal for quite some time to come.

the ‘mild period’ is only going to be mild relative to now, which isn’t very mild at all and increasing all members will dip back under the 30yr mean imo.

shortwaves? Bring em on!!!

 

and according to that double wave , would be a double snow event .. even triple without a real thaw.

It's a big battle .. and we're in no mans land 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

not overly concerned about this one chart. ~ (I think referred as the members?) people have showed a wide range of them, some of their uppers -10.. others +10 

 We're talking ahead to a low that is only just developing.. an easterly which continually changes its influence.. and now also what happens North of us.. -- the differences are too dramatic to have concluded its ultimate output as shown by each 6 hourly update. We will probably be looking at this all the way up until Wednesday,. when we should feel confident (unless we have a marginal situation)

None the less.. the whole battle carries some very interesting possibilities.. 
Extreme cold dry air from the East.
A snow battle ground over us 
from the West.. the strength of the winds 

Exciting times!

 

[February cold spell discussion and chat]

Starting to see some sleet on the net weather radar in the SE , looks like the cold air is starting to do its thing.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

1 minute ago, Malarky said:

Dead in here! Thoughts on the pub?

I'm just watching as the charts come out, ~ not long until Thursdays and Fridays ,. I'm sure the chat will liven up very soon

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Don't think I have ever seen so much blue coldness over the south, let lone violet. which is normally reserved for the highlands

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

this GFS has seen such a colossal shift in this 18z run. It allows the wind to be influenced from the East rather than the West.. this keeps us in a feed of colder air than previously. 
The cold air over Europe seems to be stronger/cooler and closer as is the scandi high which is helping us in battle. 

when the less freezing air reaches us towards next weekend end , it doesn't seem to be enough to start a thaw of the snow in the East.. and right now I can't see when a thaw would happen. 

Even across Central England into Wales, the warmer air struggles arrive at ground level.

so 6-7 days out we see a difference over models in 6 hours,. and the latter part of my message goes out 7-10 days.

 which means there is so much time for such a volatile situation to change. For the better and for the worse.. remember our concerning low hasn't even developed yet.
 
 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Look at that cold pool in Eastern Europe Wow.

absolutely.. and coming straight at us.. despite the milder air.. and can't budge the surface temperatures (if it verifies ) 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

If the snow turns to rain on Friday.. it will just end up falling on surfaces and turning to ice.. the ground will be absolutely freezing. 

Do we have some uppers to go with these GFS charts?

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Nice to see the GFS staying dominant into Friday and the atlantic low barely has an influence temperature wise,, mean while the pressure system over Scandinavia .. tries to make a westwards inching. 

 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Thurs eve 12z Vs 18z

min max temperatures, Thursday night is just like any other night with min max temperatures, absolutely below freezing right into somerset and Devon ,,, the low pressure seemingly being delayed by 24 hours .. and may'be not making it at all.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

The only concern i have  and to be fair its not really that a big deal   but if the uppers are so low  we get that  alpine type powdry snow   which in my opinion is bloody awful.  You can have a foot of the stuff and the ground is clear  but up the corner of some terrace house it upto the upstairs bathroom. 

with a gradual cool down, there will probably be a very thick layer of snow already on the ground before any powder snow arrives, possibly 2 days worth 
, oh and powder snow in the wind is beautiful and makes you really feel like you are part of the north pole


 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

look at the difference over Germany  , there must be a 10 degree difference between the 12z and 18z .. and that cold has an impact right through to us in the UK ~ 
a huge difference.. ~ we will have to keep a very close eye on what happens in the atlantic.. if the low breaks up anymore, gets weaker.. and also if the cold air coming in from Scandinavia reinforces itself on other runs. (Doesn't look like the East will have a thaw anytime soon based on this chart)

 

 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Take a look at the extension of cold in NW France and throughout UK as compared to the former run on GFS 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

is it just me or is our "concerning low" becoming slightly weaker in comparison to former runs?
 
 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m sure these figures are underplaying the shower activity off the North sea, but pretty widespread snow, and deep in many places.

I feel we have a stinking ECM about to rope out!! 

does the snow depth chart include potential snow drifts? or is this assuming theres no wind?

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, londonblizzard said:

Yes i think this is possible. Check out the UKMO for wednesday, pretty south:


 

that looks pretty amazing,. I won't be surprised if the meto put a UK wide early yellow warning up soon, 
Little Siberia  for us! 

P.S the uppers in that same deep low,. have uppers like that made it to the UK from the atlantic? 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Even for the South, according to GFS , the min max temperatures, seem to have several days of well below 0 down into the Midlands. 

The low that tracks under the UK on Tuesday, maybe the big Atlantic beast will try and do the same thing on Thursday.. is it a possibility ? Is it also possible that Thursdays low is a bit overcooked ?
 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

He did suggest that some models might be too progressive in bringing the milder air back in. Their in house models seems confident the milder air won't  win out throughout the UK. So maybe less cold in the south with some significant snowfall to be had before a milder turn. It would be great if the GFS control from last night turned out to be correct!

That means a battle ground! If we could somehow get the whole country snowy before that battle.. perhaps it would give us an upper edge... and that I guess.. largely depends on if any showers can be blown in far enough on the Easterly wind, a bit of a convergence with some troughs would be perfect