swebby

Putting out a graphic that looks like a met warning but is not (it contains the met logo!)? I'd say that is unwise in the extreme!

Plenty of good web cams in the Scilly isles. e.g Tresco Cam | St Mary's Hall Hotel Isles of Scilly STMARYSHALLHOTEL.CO.UK View over Porthmellon to the Island of Tresco. The RNLI George Cross flag can usually be seen over the lifeboat station, along with the lifeboat, the largest in the RNLI fleet, at it's mooring. Peak winds there are around 7am, so around sunrise, so it may still be on the dark side depending on cloud cover.

Dropped off by helicopter on Lundy Island if they are feeling particular brave/heroic/stupid.

I was assuming it was because of being in the leeward side of Dartmoor, but then i checked places like Okehampton for comparison and they are not that much worse. Bude seems to top out at 74mph, and that is about as exposed as you will get. I just assume there are slightly different calculations being made for the value, or different heights maybe e.g 2m vs 10m

Excellent, you can see the three troughs on the fac chart that are being swept down behind Eunice, including the last one with the odd forward pointing hook shape.

Those charts i posted are from just two model runs and i'm not sure in what way they could change to make things worse -so at the extreme and less likely end of things. Still 36 hrs to go so plenty of time for corrections which will hopefully moderate any impacts. Whatever happens however - you'd not want to be on a boat in the south west reaches!

Entirely speculative on my part, but i could see the MetO simply blanketing the south coast as a precaution. Looking at the loop Mike has posted - they will be onshore winds also, so not good with the tide times. That is however with the current track, which is probably as bad as it could be for the south coast, a slight change of track will probably make a big difference. Bristol channel however, that looks grim unless a good correction south.

If the charts that Steel City skies has just posted verify - then it will be extremely likely, along with the entire south coast, south coast of Wales, Bristol channel and north coasts of Cornwall and Devon. A real fly in the ointment - if the timings are correct, it will coincide with high tide for the south coast. Solent high tide it is just before noon on Friday and we are just coming out of spring tides. Not a great combo.

Remember that well! I was on a golfing holiday in the middle of Norfolk that week, the farming/country file forecast on the Sunday had a significant wind storm for the end of the week but the forecasts during the week then lowered it's intensity. Then good'ol Michael fish stepped up to the plate! For 87, that was quite an impressive forecast by the models for five days out. I still marvel at what we have now, the models have been forecasting this for four days and are now pinning down likely track within a hundred miles on a feature that as of the moment has only just started to form - the little kink in the isobars on the bottom left of this mornings fax

Especially as we all know the answer is of course the third little pig. As to if the wolf was called Eunice, the records sadly do not say.

Yep, there are some really odd features getting thrown out at the extended range. Earlier this week, the ECM wanted to form a low in British Columbia, drop it due south all the way down the west coast until it caught the trade winds and ended up all the way across the pacific in Hawaii! It has now settled on the more sensible idea that the trough will simply dig south into the central and southern states. Then the yesterday both the GFS and ECM wanted a 4 day monsoon in the Sahara from the middle of next week - they've not exactly dropped that notion either! And today's 12z GFS has had a good go at forming what to my untrained eye looks like a warm core low in the middle of the Atlantic. In Feburary!!! I think the models are as bored as us and just playing with daft ideas for ***** and giggles.

The thing that has caught my eye with these outputs and the orientation of the Azores high - the rainfall now being forecast late next week in central Algeria - the Sahara! Climatically - Feb is the driest month in this neck of the woods, with rainfall totals of around 5mm. The latest outputs have the rain setting in on wed, and both the ECM and GFS have it going for the best part of 4-5 days. It is of course outside the reliable range but this is the forecast for Ghardia - go to next Wed and it resembles Manchester in April! ghardaia, ALGERIA Weather Forecast - Worldwide Weather - Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Weather forecast for ghardaia, ALGERIA. Detailed forecast for the next 7 days. Updated four times a day to keep you totally up to date. Edit - and naturally enough -there is even a small percentage showing on the snowfall chances for next Wed!!

I know the time frames are different lengths, but that anomaly pattern in that comparison you have posted is about as wrong as it could possibly be for the Pacific/US west coast. I wonder what happened with the UKMO seasonal to get that so wrong?

In regards to risk and putting aside VEI7+ eruptions that are incredibly unlikely to occur anywhere on the globe in our lifetimes. A standard moderate sized eruption of either Campi Flegrei or Mount Vesuvius would be catastrophic at a local level. The expansion of Naples and the surrounding area now stands at over 3 million people! With development ongoing high on the flanks of Vesuvius, if there is insufficient notice (weeks) of an eruption, the consequences are hard to imagine.

An impressive animation of the pressure waves and the rebound over northern Africa.

Good post. When I saw that intense high over Iberia it was a combination of "not again!" and "how the hell do we go from the current to that in just ten days?" Looking at it again however, what are your (or others) thoughts of what happens to that ridge over Iberia? Normally when they herald mild grot for the UK they are broad and extend across much of the med and north Africa. When viewed as a single snap shot however, this one has the look of an azores high migrating to Scandinavia? Is that a possibility in this instance? Do the global patterns support the possibilty of that kind of amplification?

Yep, i think they are what gets churned out as a default when the model in question is unable to resolve the energy involved - if in doubt, dump the energy on the same spot and hey presto, dartboard low. Once they come into closer time frames, assuming they make it that far, they inevitably then get resolved into complicated and messy beasties with broad footprints and shortwaves galore.

It shows that movement towards phase 7 might be slightly more favoured than other possible outcomes. in other words, all bases covered. Bar some of the ensemble members, it is mainly really low amplitude, and, it's an MJO forecast. Having kept an eye on these for a number of years (almost exclusively in summer) i'd say fickle would be a very good description of these outputs.

Long way off, but the models [GFS/ECM] currently indicate that Sam will have Bermuda very much in it's cross hairs.

Some of it's predicted post tropical landings have been interesting and potent, including Newfoundland the UK and also Portugal plus an option for it to loop the loop and end up meandering around the Azores where it would have every chance of becoming tropical again. Whatever it's track, i'd not recommend Bermuda as a holiday destination for a week or so.

Just clocked this link on volcano café of a rather close shave. As posters on there point out - the sightseer is startled by the breakout, but rather than retreat, just carries on taking pics!

Yesterdays GFS 0z had it becoming a major hurricane and heading north through the mid Atlantic and pitching up on the coast of Cornwall as a post tropical depression late next week for what would have probably been our first named storm of Autumn. Todays 0z has it doing a grand tour of the Atlantic basin and ending up over the Azores as a low pressure system with potential for it to then reform if it was to take that track - it would mean Larry may be with us for some time. Either of these solutions is better than another major shift west by the models - if this was to hit the Caribbean or US East coast that would be a bad result.

Yep - it appears to come down to $$$$ and the entirely free market nature of US utilities. The above is not the only obvious issue with the US system. Last winters power outages across the state of Texas and a number of previous summers wild fires are down to the same issue. The first where they had no connection to other states power grids for back up if the Texas system failed and the latter due to poor/old power lines that arc in high winds. If you have free markets with little or no regulation for utilities, it's not surprising these things happen.

link and pic

Some twitter footage now about, it's not a small eruption! Hopefully the evacuation of the northern end of the island is near complete.