Smiler1709
-
Posts
295 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Smiler1709
-
-
Why people rely on each model run astounds me, the gfs changes it's mind more times than a women getting ready for a night out.
-
3
-
-
Current cfs models are showing us in a cold pool during the festive period, I know that will change but to call it mild or cold is plain fickle. So much can happen and so much can change.
-
1
-
-
could you let me know what the gfs solution is please? do i use a pin?
Oh the witty banter. Dry up
-
I think the government should put a ban on the express for leaking this rubbish, not only does it affect the economy with people maybe panic buying, but if people plan ahead and they think there's a bad winter coming then they may cancel plans ie holidays, trips etc which then has a knock on affect on our economy. Also I think this point is massive they put fear into people... Worry about rising house bills, therefore can't afford heating, also the elderly who sadly have a higher chance of dying in such extreme cold. The express and it's followers need a long hard look at themselves and stop this scare mongering. If we have severe weather coming then report it and let the uk know then we can prepare, but these latest story's would even have some parts of Canada on alert.
-
3
-
-
The ECM will no doubt come into line with the gfs. It's looking increasingly likely that it will be a very brief affair and those living in England and Wales will just have a cold couple of days, no point looking at precipitation charts they are useless beyond 24 hours.
-
3
-
-
There is a thread for ramping, I call that place dreamland. I think this thread is for more realistic output discussion.Ramping is half the fun on here, and never needless... Its a weather forum not a forecasting tool. Go watch the BBC weather if you want a sober reflection on the weather
-
2
-
-
Good update Gibby, puts it into perspective and no needless ramping.
-
3
-
-
The models are still well out of range for anything reliable so it could change, and if it does change I bet it will downgrade and the gfs and ECM will find middle ground, also frosty precipitation charts are useless this far out, 24 hours out and that can change. Don't get me wrong I won't be moaning at this colder outlook but some off the ramping will get the hopes up of so many only for them to be disappointed when this cold snap arrives.Hmm, I live on the south coast and I think that Northerly would deliver pretty much everywhere on the ECM. Although Easterlies tend to be a better setup for Southern England I agree. But I'll take a Northerly if that's all that's on offer, especially the northerly blast shown by the last couple of ECM's outputs.
-
1
-
-
Gfs is completely different to yesterday's output, could it of smelt something different? Maybe but most properly not. With the very cold ECM run I'm thinking by the time we get closer to the event we will find ourselves somewhere in between the gfs and ECM. Let's see what the ukmo has after 144 hours. Due to my location on the south coast I could care less if this northerly fails to deliver. I'm looking for the high on the ECM to push into scandi and bring in a easterly. Some models have suggested this but way out in fi so about as much good as a Train set with no plug.
-
The met office would never put such early warnings out because of two reasons 1 it could go wrong and they would look like idiots as they have so many times in the past, 2 it would create massive panic buying something the government try's to keep a lid on. If they could see that weather coming they still wouldn't tell us about it till 3 or 4 days before.
-
1
-
-
Can't stand all this long range forecasting rubbish, it's a load of tosh, so many times forecasts have gone completely wrong. Stick to models five days out then see what happens. The weather will do what it will do.
-
2
-
-
I don't know why people get so annoyed with the express, as they have stated, they sell more papers, earning more money with there extreme weather headlines. In the end it comes down to the stupid public whether they believe it or not.
-
I would love the express to be right this winter, but they will be terribly wrong again!!!!
-
Just because the models are sitting the high slap bang over us does not mean it can't migrate north east and stick us in the freezer, we have got to stop taking each model run as certainty. I think we are perfectly set up ready to go into December, let's get Europe cold while keeping us seasonal, then hopefully the models can't send that pressure north/north east and stick us in the freezer for Christmas.
-
2
-
-
Loving the ECM, nice easterly, with the warm North Sea we could really see some heavy snow showers.
-
The most encouraging thing out of the ECM run is the cold really setting in across Europe, quality cold to tap into. But also keeping us in a very seasonal spell on settled weather and nice sharp frosts.
-
4
-
-
I think the admin on the model thread needs a beer, he talks about clogging up the model thread like it's the m25.
-
1
-
-
I think with Europe currently warmer than normal I'm not really fussed about what we get, there's still all winter to come and I'd rather have Europe in the freezer next time we get these charts. As stated already it only takes 24 hours and most of Europe could be frozen, if we go by the ukmo then we could really hit a good cold spell, with a nice block to our northeast we could keep our 2m temps below average, then once Europe is cold we could tap into some real freezing weather. It's really exciting model watching and one that's keeping us all guessing.tbh where not sure what happens after 120 we have the rough idea of pressure remaining north but details are limited. Westerlies are out of equation but southerlies, easterlies and northerlies aren't
-
2
-
-
I don't know why people are obsessed with very cold uppers, during 63 winter the really cold uppers stayed to our northeast. What we had was sustained cold, therefore the cold became entrenched and day by day got colder. Some models are pointing towards a prolonged cool/cold spell, so you never know.......
-
2
-
-
These papers are ridiculous, scare mongers. Where do the express make this drivel up from. From what we've seen from the models it's going to get colder but nothing out the ordinary for this time of year.
-
2
-
-
Hi all,
Been reading your forum for months, fascinating read and really enjoy reading everyone's views and opinions.
Looking for ward to the cooler weather coming next week and then we're have to see where the models are going to see what happens after.
People getting upset about model runs that are 5 days away need a chill pill. Whether we go zonal or in the freezer is anyone's guess. Model predictions change more than my baby's nappys so wait and see.
Hopefully ECM will upgrade tonight.
Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I'd take a easterly over a northerly anyday of the week, couldn't care if this northerly fails. If the overall picture gives us a nice scandi high then more people would be happy. Plenty of potential in fi but as long as there showing it then we got hope.