Smiler1709
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Posts posted by Smiler1709
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Growing trends on the GEFS that temps are gonna start to fall after Xmas, there's more runs now starting to show with hints of Northern blocking or blasts of cold air from the artic. Obviously there still is the milder runs but it's certainly encouraging to see stone bone chilling runs in there also.
I think the big change is gonna come in January when I think our first real countrywide cold spell will hit. So far this winter has been pretty awesome already compared to last years rubbish, we have already had a good ten frosts and some really decent chilly winter days.
So already this winter is completely different, colder, Atlantic is no were near as powerful and with the continued model trends for colder weather from the northwest instead of horrible westerly winds of last year.
Mild blip this week then something more seasonal for the festive period. Plenty to be happy about.
Growing trends on the GEFS that temps are gonna start to fall after Xmas, there's more runs now starting to show with hints of Northern blocking or blasts of cold air from the artic. Obviously there still is the milder runs but it's certainly encouraging to see stone bone chilling runs in there
Mild blip this week then something more seasonal for the festive period. Plenty to be happy about.
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Again a lot of people taking each and every run as a cert, the models have downgraded in the last 24 hours but in 24hours time they could be upgrading again, so much uncertainty at the moment and the reliable is about 4 days so lots of change to come. Loving these frosty nights though
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Thanks Steve, I've noticed tonight the models have swung in favour of a more substantial cold spell, hopefully your predictions are coming to light.
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Steve I'm new to the model lark, when you talk about a split December are the current set of model outputs starting to show your expected pattern change?
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It's lucky christmas is three weeks away and the models don't have a clue what's going on in 5 days let alone 2 or 3 weeks, the gfs 6z will look nothing like the 18z come the morning then it will change again by that evening. We still won't have an accurate forecast for Xmas on the 20th so I'm gonna take any predictions or guesses tonight with a huge pinch of salt when regarding a white or green christmas.
In the mean time, wintry weather to the north west, cold and possible frost elsewhere. That's already a huge improvement on last winter.
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The pressure is certainly rising over Greenland, I've noticed on the last few gfs runs that the ridging in the Atlantic is moving further north on every run, now I'm still learning with all this model stuff but maybe the gfs is picking up a trend to send high pressure up into Greenland and put us in a blocked pattern.
I've seen a few posters talking about a pattern change come mid month onwards, trending to Northern blocking. Maybe were just starting to see these changes. With 1040 pressure over Greenland it wouldn't take much for the high pressure in the Atlantic to ridge up and create a good block over the artic.
Here's hoping anyway
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We don't usually get the major snow being on the south coast, usually a easterly is when we get any significant weather in terms of snow and cold. December 2010 was awesome for our area, 10 inches of snow and freezing days. I must say I am worried about this up and coming winter, I really hope Steve forecast comes true, but I think were gonna be stuck between a winter like last year with only brief incursions of cold. I really want to take my little baby girl out in her first snowfall she was born last year but that winter is best left burried at the back of the mind.
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I know cfs model is pretty dire, it is this morning suggesting that a lobe of the vortex will be sitting over Scandinavia near to Scotland in the run upto Christmas, very similar to December 2010.
Can't Post charts because I'm on my phone but if you have time take a peak. Worth keeping an eye on to see if the ECM, gfs or ukmo pick this up in the run upto to Xmas.-
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Can you please explain how you have come to that assumption?High pressure will move south from that position and bring a return to milder/cloudier Atlantic weather
Just seen your reply but high pressure will also influence the jet and just as much chance to drive it south.
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I don't why I'm feeling this but I just think the models are gonna go BOOM soon! And show us some real winter charts. I'm thinking were gonna get a north westerly to northerly with high pressure building around Greenland allowing us to get our bitter easterly. I really think were on the cusp on something very noticeable.
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So nice seeing the gritting lorries flying about tonight. A sign of things to come I hope. I do love it when it's still daylight and the gritters are out, I really hope for a cold winter period
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A nice positive though from the current set up being forecast is that there maybe a lack of significant cold and snow, but it will trend colder and feel very fresh in the north west winds, bringing wintry weather to the high ground in Scotland but also giving frosts when the sky's clear long enough.
That to me is already more positive than last winters awful mild mush and continued zonal theme.
We also have the added bonus of the models being very uncertain with the block to our east, over the next week it could go either way. It's to differcult to call so we just have to wait and see.
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WE STILL ARE NOT IN WINTER
The forecast from the latest models show a cool down with night frost and cooler days, if you ask me that already is a huge step up from last year, the winter pattern going into the new year is so much better than the outlook last year.
So take a deep breath and chill.
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Smiler when is this cold shot coming ? Even though things are looking a little more settled there is still a lot of low pressure to the NW which I think is where we don't want it !
It's not that there showing any real cold at the moment, it's the fact that some show high pressure over Europe and Russia, with the way the models are chopping and changing it wouldn't take much of a shift to put us under one of these blocks, but also we could stay where we are now which is wedged between high pressure and low pressure.
The point I'm getting across is not to get to hung up on current outputs. The building blocks are there we just need them all to fit together and fall into place where we get the cold. Last winter the uk was stuck under mild westerly yet just across the North Sea Scandinavia was in the freezer, hopefully this year we end up on the right side of the cold
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I just feel that the majority on here are interpreting this so wrongly (and very recent events support this). With a lobe of the PV over N.America bringing cold weather there this is the ideal set up for a conveyor of low systems to develop over NW Atlantic and head for the NE Atlantic where the temperature differential across the N.Atlantic is accelerating the Jet Stream and this will deepen any lows. Something the models proved last December / January that they cannot see very well. There is a slight blocking pattern; but this will be overwhelmed by the low altitude effect of the heat of the N.Atlantic (where SST are anomalously 5C higher than average over Nova Scotia) driving the creation of low pressure systems under the anomalously low temps at high altitude. Its stormy weather not snowy!
I'm sorry but that Is a ridiculous way at looking at the current set ups, we maybe stuck in abit of a phase of weather fronts at the moment but they are no where near the same systems we had cross us last winter. Next week the weather looks to be settling down a tad and there are still many uncertainties about how the weather will pan out. Many forecasting systems actually move the lobe of vortex away from North America therefore that will have a effect on us downstream.
I'm seeing a few comments that really are just knee jerk reactions to how our weather us gonna pan out. The facts are the northern hemisphere looks completely different to this time last year, the vortex is still disorganised, some models show the vortex trying to get it's act together while others continue to pick up the trend of Northern blocking.
So yes we are abit wet at the moment but compared to last year the Atlantic is just going through the rounds. No where near the power of last winters dross.
Our first cold shot is coming, the models are just struggling to pick up the trends, but when they do it could be very quick and turn very cold, there's a few hints at the moment in FI but forecast models don't pick up on signals unless there's something lurking
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Some of them on the mod thread are so tragic, loads of trolls just seeking attention or to wind others up.
November normally is a wet month and December can be a mixed bag with the odd fleeting cold snaps, most of the time January is when the fun and games begin. I'm staying very optimistic about this winter, the opi team says so
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I'm still a true believer that the weather will do what it wants when it wants, it's laughable reading some of the troll comments on the mod thread, people writing winter off before it's begun. I like to just watch and wait you never know what's round the corner. My dad said the best way the forecast the weather is to stick your head out the window in the morning lol.
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o dear o dear its all going rather pear shaped or should i say heights are all but gone from the pole.
just goes to show the power of the polar vortex possibly losing the chance of the strat warming to.....
with any luck the azores heights might save us from a 2013/14 repeat winter from hell.
looks pretty dire wet windy and rather disturbed.
perhaps this will prove that even with OPI index and even the east based QBO that winter here is a very hard to pin down funny that most of the big forecasting authorities have suggested nothing exciting really to look forwards to.
so lesson of the day dont bother getting excited about the ecm past 144 because its love for over cooking heights and easterly is rather a pain in the butt.
from now on im certainly not even going to ramp until where at least 72hrs away.
Those that were rather confident on the mid to end of the month cold myself including where taken right up the garden path.
gfs nothing but a repeat of last november
ukmo
looks to have a better angle perfect if heights were able to build into greenland better but im sure this to will show a complete melt down of height into the arctic in future runs.
the gem to looks like it could be good but the major swings recently in its output would certainly lead me to ignore its latter runs
the gfs
jet stream says it all although it looks like it exits the states bit futher south than normal but direct hit for us
rather messy from the models tonight but i expect the ecm will throw a spanner in the works with heights there to give us some excitement but can it be trusted id say up till t144 then after that forget it.
if anything id be more inclined to follow the ukmo as this is by far the best model.
as for any stratospheric influence then id be inclined to reject projected warming or split as this was certainly a feature last winter when there was forecasts for warming but never really came to anything.
but i can safely say its not going to be blow torch but slightly above is a possibilty if you take model outputs at face value.[/
It's 12th of November, just because the charts are showing something mild and wet now doesn't mean we're suddenly gonna have a winter like 2013/14. Winter hasn't started yet and already people are writing it off.
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Models not looking to cleaver at the moment but we were in this situation a few weeks ago, where we thought we were trapped in a bad patch but it changed rapidly, this situation can and will change.
Ps just messaged exacta weather on there predictions and lets just say they didn't take well to it, I think I lost them when I described there winter forecast as drivel written by a 5 year old.
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The charts are unreal, there's so much resemblance to the winter of 62/63, we had a blast of cold air from the north on the 6th then high pressure dominated at mid latitude very similar tow hat we have now, obviously I'm not saying we're gonna get a severe winter but the patterns are nearly exactly the same, that with the met office update there's something to hold onto to. Let's wait and see.
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We all know the outputs will be different tomorrow, in the mean time I'm gonna go dust off my swimming shorts lol
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At least we're be saving on the heating billsGEM is not interested in any cold infact it becomes very mild +14 850's for some with +12 widely at the end before that we have +8's widely
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But it's quite rare for the met to be forecasting this, it's not like the express have been telling us. I think these updates are massively encouraging. Normally the met are very cautious when it comes to long range forecastingGuy's guys guys just cos the meto are currently thinking it will turn much colder from mid month doesn't mean to say 1 it will happen and 2 they won't change there minds come this time next week. Its very exciting of course to hear potential cold and snowy updates but don't pin all your hopes on mid-month as if it doesn't materialise there will be a lot of very un-happy bunnies. Just relax and enjoy each day as it comes otherwise you end up wishing your life away. Mid-term the weather looks as dull as dishwater with HP South of the UK.
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I'm crossing my fingers for a raging easterly by Xmas, wouldn't it be great. And as stated the models are starting to warm to the idea, very encouraging update from fergie. So maybe just maybe this failed northerly might just turn into something much more potent and pleasing to the uk in general. Hopefully a nice countrywide event around the festive period.
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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A few of us tripping out on the post button lol