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Everything posted by SteveB
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January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
SteveB replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
4.8c and 120mm please -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
SteveB replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I hear people saying that nothing can come down from the North while there are heights to the South. Why can't they, why can't the heights just be push out of the way? -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
SteveB replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Maybe... just maybe, this is the year where instead of everything that can go wrong will go wrong, for getting cold to our shores. Everything that can go right, will go right for getting cold to our shores and keeping it here! -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
SteveB replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As a few have alluded to. Since the dawn of model watching, we have never had cold in situ and the classic battleground situation with fronts coming in of the Atlantic. In the late 70's and early 80's I was older enough to remember driving to see my grandparents who also lived in Weston- super-mare, and in the short 10min journey, it rained then started to turn sleety. When we left my granparents, 30mins later it was snowing heavily. I suspect we are seeing something similar in the models for next week. This will a good test of whether we can still get those frontal events bumping into the block, or it simple pushes on through. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
SteveB replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But, they don't have to contend with being on the eastern side of the Atlantic, and the gulf stream which dictates the kind of weather we have. In the past we used to buck the trend and get cold spells even though our weather is predominantly Atlantic based. Now with global warming, its just another warm based obstacle we have to overcome, and I think it's the final nail in the coffin for semi regular proper cold spells. We will get that epic cold spell, law of averages say we will, but the gaps between them will grow ever bigger. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
SteveB replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't know why it comes as a surprise when a cold spell gets watered down as it gets nearer to 0z. ECM will move to GFS and GFS will move to ECM and we will have a cold spell but not the epic freeze the models were showing in FI and we all want. That's living in the UK and global warming for you. -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
SteveB replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It can go wrong though mate. It's not like we haven't seen all this before when viewing charts. But, and it's a big but there's always that chance we may hit the jackpot. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
SteveB replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Thunder and lightning passing to the North West of here -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
SteveB replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We've been here before many times when viewing charts in the Winter. You should never ignore any chart that is showing a mild solution, as it's the most likely outcome! -
The radar seems to be stuck @ 11.55am!
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Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
SteveB replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That sums it up perfectly. To think it would be anything different than that is wishful thinking. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
SteveB replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Likely to be more of the same. Record warmth is the form horse. Another above average month and I can't see December being anything different. You can't escape the obvious! -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
SteveB replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
It rained! That's it. -
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
SteveB replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's a safe bet. You can't get away from the fact that it's the standard type of weather the UK gets in Winter, ergo the most likely outcome. -
Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
SteveB replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'm going for record breaking mild Winter. December 6c+ January 6c + February 6c+ March will be colder than the previous 3 months March 3-4c range.