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J10

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  1. J10
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b]

    The past week for the Alps have been one for the skiers to enjoy the sunshine, but at the expense of long term snow especially on lower slopes, where temps have been above freezing and snow depths have been effected.
    A suggested last week, areas further east have faired better with temperatures being much colder, with some snow at the start of this working week.
    [b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]

    I have changed the charts a little this week, removing the 850HPa chart with the 500Hpa thickness chart which IMO better shows the synoptic pattern and the air mass change. Please let me know if you agree or disagree with this change.
    [attachment=237400:Alps 9 Jan.JPG]
    This week across the Alps sees big temperatures contrasts, with spells of very mild Tropical Maritime air mass and spells days of much colder Polar Maritime air mass. So very much a mobile pattern with strong winds, but trying to pin detail on this is tricky, but here is my attempt.

    [b]Saturday[/b]. The weekend starts with the the Alps under a Tropical maritime air mass over the Alps, with a NW flow on the North Eastern edge of the Azores High. Fronts from the North West will being some precipitation but snow limited to the higher slopes.
    [attachment=237399:Alps 9 Jan +24.JPG]

    [b]Sunday[/b] A cold front is set to edge down from the North West bringing some precipitation with more snow this time as it turns colder with a Polar maritime air mass, drying up later from the west as the Azores High ridging in.
    [attachment=237398:Alps 9 Jan + 48.JPG]


    [b]Monday.[/b] For the start of the next week, The Azores High ridges up from the South west introducing a TM air mass with South West winds with much milder and drier conditions.
    [attachment=237397:Alps 9 Jan + 72.JPG]

    [b]Midweek[/b] Another change by midweek as the High edges south west with colder air edging down from the North, although still with south westerly winds and further precipitation is expected.
    [attachment=237396:Alps 9 Jan + 96.JPG] [attachment=237395:Alps 9 Jan +120.JPG]
    [b]Thursday / Friday[/b] Briefly milder on Thursday, before turning colder by Friday with a North West wind and a Polar Maritime airmass with some showers or longer periods of precipitation with snow to quite low levels.
    [attachment=237394:Alps 9 Jan +144.JPG] [attachment=237393:Alps 9 Jan +168.JPG]

    Even though the pattern is set, timings are very uncertain especially towards next weekend.[/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][b]Precipitation[/b]

    Saturday - Moderate to heavy precipitation in Central areas overnight this becoming more concentrated towards Austria later in the morning before becoming drier later. Snow Levels 1800m to start, well over 2000m later.

    Sunday - A cold front is set to edge in from the North West overnight into Sunday, initially giving heavy precipitation for SW Germany, N and W Switzerland. This moving over much of Switzerland, W Austria, S Germany and the French Alps by morning, again with some heavy bursts. Snow levels dropping as the front edges south, 600m on the back edge to 1200m on the front edge, with moderate snowfall in places.
    By mid afternoon, the precipitation fading further west, but patchy snow possible for parts of Austria during late afternoon and early evening.

    Wednesday - Another front edging down from the North West overnight into Wednesday, with moderate bursts at times, snow level around 1200-1400m.

    Friday A repeat performance into Friday, with another cold front edging down from the North West, and with some moderate precipitation for Northern and Western areas, snow level dropping to around 600m behind the front. Looking rather unsettled into Friday with further periods of snow down to quite low levels.[/font][/size]
    [attachment=237410:Rmgfs144sum 9 Jan.gif]
    Some moderate precipitation possible this week, more especially for Northern and Western areas.
    [size=4][font=arial][b]Freezing Levels[/b] (Based on 12Hz GFS run – Fri 9 Jan)

    Sat – 2400m-2600m Central parts of the Alps up to 3000-30600, Southern Switzerland and S Austria, N Italy
    [attachment=237408:Alps Temps 9 Jan +24.png]

    Sun –600m-1000m Germany, Northern Austria and N Switzerland, 1200-1500m Far S Austria, S Switzerland and French Alps.
    [attachment=237407:Alps Temps 9 Jan + 48.png]
    Mon – 800-1000m Far West Austria, 1000-1800m rest of Austria, 2000-2000m Switzerland and France

    [attachment=237406:Alps Temps 9 Jan +72.png]
    Tue – 1400-1800 Switzerland and N Italy 2200-2400m generally elsewhere, over 3000m NE Austria.
    [attachment=237405:Alps Temps 9 Jan +96.png]

    Wed 1000m-1200m Germany, Northern Austria and N Switzerland, 1200-1600m elsewhere

    [attachment=237404:Alps Temps 9 Jan +120.png]
    Thurs – 1200m-1600m Switzerland and N Italy 1800-2200m generally elsewhere
    [attachment=237403:Alps Temps 9 Jan + 144.png]
    Fri – 600m-800m Austria, Germany, France and most of Switzerland, 1000m-1400m S Switzerland and N Italy
    [attachment=237401:Alps Temps 9 Jan +168.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Very mixed this week, but with the colder interludes looking unsettled, the chance of considerable snowfalls especially over higher slopes this week.[/font][/size]
  2. J10
    [font=arial][size=4][b]Current Situation [/b]
    Heavy snow throughout the Alps last weekend transformed the Alps, with over 50cm of fresh snow widely and over a 1m in places. Things have turned slightly milder in recent days, so not quite as good as last weekend, but overall still a massive improvement.

    [b]Synoptic Situation[/b]

    The current pattern is a mobile generally westerly flow across the Atlantic, with a prominent Azores High (AZH). Currently the AZH has ridged further east across mainland NW Europe , with High Pressure as such over the Alps, a mild westerly flow over the western half of the Alps, and the colder air remaining in situ longer for Eastern Austria (850HPa sub zero here)

    [attachment=236354:Alps 3 Jan.JPG]

    Sunday sees the High Pressure toppling a little over NW Europe and this bringing in Colder NE winds cover the Alps for a time (850 HPa air sub -5c for much of the North and East of the Alps but still with largely High Pressure (1036mb).

    [attachment=236353:Alps 3 Jan + 24.JPG]

    An east west split for the Alps starting Monday, with milder air trying to edge from the South West , but staying much colder for Austria especially with Northerly winds.

    [attachment=236352:Alps 3 Jan + 48.JPG]

    By midweek, a weak area of High Pressure remains over the Alps, with 850HPa around freezing, and with the coldest air now well away to the East.

    [attachment=236351:Alps 3 Jan + 72.JPG] [attachment=236350:Alps 3 Jan + 96.JPG]

    Towards the weekend signs of the winds from west for the Alps becoming established, with alternative Polar and Tropical maritime airflow, so wildly varying temperatures.

    [attachment=236349:Alps 3 Jan + 120.JPG] [attachment=236348:Alps 3 Jan + 144.JPG]

    [b]Precipitation [/b]

    A front is pushing South Eastwards across the Alps during Saturday, with heavy precipitation over the Alps during the evening, this set to continue into Sunday morning before fading somewhat during Sunday daytime. Heaviest precipitation through a swathe from the French Alps, through much of Switzerland, Liechtenstein, SE Germany and Western and Central Austria.

    Snow Levels 6pm Saturday – France + Switzerland + West Austria and S Germany 2200-2400m, E Austria 800-1600m
    Snow Levels midnight – France + Switzerland + West Austria and SW Germany 1800-2000m, E Austria + SE Germany 800-1400m
    Snow Levels 6am Sunday– Germany 600-800m, Austria , most of Switzerland 1000-1400m, Far S Switzerland, French Alps 1600-1800m

    [attachment=236361:alpprec.png] [attachment=236360:Alps Precip 3 Jan +6.png] [attachment=236359:Alps Precip 3 Jan +9.png] [attachment=236358:Alps Precip 3 Jan +12.png] [attachment=236357:Alps Precip 3 Jan +15.png] [attachment=236356:Alps Precip 3 Jan +18.png]

    A little more precipitation for Austria during Sunday.
    Largely dry through the week due to High Pressure,
    With some weak precipitation edging in from the North West on Friday.[/size][/font]



    [font=arial][size=4][b]Freezing Levels[/b] (Based on 6Hz GFS run - Sat 3 Jan)

    Sat – 900m-1200m Eastern Austria rising quickly to 1800-2100m Western Austria, 2400m-2700m for France and Switzerland
    Sun – 400m-600m North Eastern Austria, 900-1200m most of Austria, S Germany, N Switzerland. 1200-1800m S Switzerland and French Alps, Northern Italy

    [attachment=236371:Alps TEmps 3 Jan.png] [attachment=236370:Alps TEmps 3 Jan + 24.png]
    Mon – 400m-600m North Eastern Austria, 1200m-1400m Western Austria, 1500-2000m E Switzerland, 2100m-2400m for France and W Switzerland
    Tue – 0m-200m North Eastern Austria, 1800m-2200m Western Austria, 2100-2400m SE Switzerland, 2400m-2700m for France and NW Switzerland

    [attachment=236369:Alps TEmps 3 Jan + 48.png] [attachment=236368:Alps TEmps 3 Jan + 72.png]
    Wed + Thu – 0m-200m North Eastern Austria, 1400-1800m rest of Alps
    Fri– 800-1000m Germany, N Austria, NW Switzerland, French Alps, 1000-1400m Central Austria and Switzerland, 1400-1600m S Switzerland and SE Austria and Italy
    Overnight temps are quite low, so freeze thaw conditions even in the mildest spots.

    [attachment=236367:Alps TEmps 3 Jan + 96.png] [attachment=236366:Alps TEmps 3 Jan + 120.png] [attachment=236365:Alps TEmps 3 Jan + 144.png][/size][/font]

    Quite a lot of precipitation next 4 ours, then mostly dry over the Alps.
    [font=arial][size=4][attachment=236377:Alps 3 Jan Rmgfs48sum.gif] [attachment=236376:Alps 3 Jan Rmgfs144sum.gif]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    Very much a change over the Alps, with an east west split, with milder weather retuning at times and becoming drier again after this weekend. The exception being Eastern Austria where it will always stay much colder than the rest of the Alps.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][font=arial][size=4]In terms of skiing conditions, best on higher slopes as ever, but also over Eastern areas, with fresh snow, and less thaw[/size][/font]ing of lying snow. [/size][/font]
  3. J10
    [b]Current Situation [/b]
    Last week it was reported that conditions across the Alps were pretty poor for the time of year. The past week has been very mixed indeed with some snow over last weekend. This was followed by some very mild temps with freezing level reaching over 3000m. However for Christmas it turned colder with a little fresh snow in places.

    [b]Synoptic Situation[/b]
    However there is a big change for this weekend and into next week already in progress. The Low Pressure system that brought the rain and snow to the UK on Boxing Day is moving South East into the Alps during Saturday bringing heavy snowfall and colder air as it does so. Sunday sees this Low Pressure centre move away to Southern Italy, with North Easterly winds feeding in across the Alps. Some snow will continue for a time but gradually turning drier from the North.
    [attachment=235350:Alps 27 Dec.JPG] [attachment=235349:Alps 27 Dec +24.JPG]

    Monday and Tuesday sees High Pressure centred over the UK settling things down for the Alps but keeping very cold North to North Easterly winds in place over the Alps.
    [attachment=235348:Alps 27 Dec +48.JPG] [attachment=235347:Alps 27 Dec + 72.JPG]

    By Midweek, The High Pressure system is set to sink to become centred over the Alps [1040mb], so remaining dry and very cold with Easterly winds.
    [attachment=235346:Alps 27 Dec +96.JPG] [attachment=235345:Alps 27 Dec +12.JPG]

    Staying dry, settled and cold over the Alps towards the weekend, but signs of the cold moderating towards the weekend.

    [attachment=235344:Alps 27 Dec +144.JPG]

    [b]Precipitation[/b]
    This is very much concentrated for this weekend. The above mentioned could front has already pushed in across NW parts of the Alps with precipitation this morning for the French Alps, Switzerland, and SW Germany. This will spread SE during the day, with some precipitation likely across the Alps, heavy in places. Snow levels 1000m to start, 400m later.

    Patchy precipitation will continue through Sunday across the Alps, slowly becoming drier from the North later. Snow levels 400-600m daytime, sea level overnight. Up to 20-30cm of snow is possible in places, from the start of the snow on Saturday until it clears on Sunday.

    Monday sees another front edging in from the North, bringing snow for Northern and Central areas through Monday and early Tuesday before fading, this falling as snow to all levels and 5cm or so possible.

    [attachment=235356:Alps Precip 27 Dec.png] [attachment=235355:Alps Precip 27 Dec +12.png] [attachment=235354:Alps Precip + 24.png] [attachment=235353:Alps Precip 27 Dec +24.png] [attachment=235351:Alps Precip 27 Dec +27.png] [attachment=235352:Alps Precip 27 Dec +33.png]

    The majority of the snowfall towards the North West of the Alps.

    [attachment=235375:Rmgfs144sum 27 dec.gif]

    [b]Freezing Levels[/b] (Based on 6Hz GFS run - Sat 28 Dec)

    Sat – 400m-600m Eastern Austria, 800m-1000m for Central areas, up to 1200m in the Far South West.
    Sun – Sea Level to 500m Eastern Austria, Southern Germany, and the French Alps, 600m-900m Southern Switzerland, SW Austria into Italy
    Mon – Sea Level to 400m Eastern Austria, Southern Germany, and the French Alps, rest of Austria and Switzerland, 500m-1100m Italy
    [attachment=235362:Alps Temps 27 Dec + 24.png] [attachment=235361:Alps Temps 27 Dec +48.png]

    Tue – Sea Level except 50m-250m Italy
    Wed – Sea Level except 0m-100m Italy
    [attachment=235360:Alps Temps 27 Dec +72.png] [attachment=235359:Alps Temps 27 Dec +96.png]

    Thu– Sea Level to 400m generally, 400m to 700m Southern Switzerland, SW Austria, NW Italy
    Fri– Sea Level to 400m N and E Austria, S Germany, 500m to 800m generally but up to 1100m Southern Switzerland, SW Austria, NW Italy
    [attachment=235358:Alps Temps 27 Dec +12.png] [attachment=235357:Alps Temps 27 Dec +144.png]

    Bearing in mind, these are maximum freezing levels and generally resorts will be below freezing the majority of the week.

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Turning much colder with some much needed snowfall this weekend. The cold temps next week mean that snow cannons will be in full operation and the current snow pack will be frozen and this should really create a base of snow for many resorts even at low levels.

    Early next week should see the best skiing conditions of the winter [so far].
  4. J10
    [b]Current Situation [/b]
    Definitely a week of contrasts, fronts from the North West brought snow to the Alps for the mid part of this week especially on Wednesday with parts of the French Alps and Switzerland seeing 20-30cm of fresh snow on upper slopes.
    However there is a big but in that temperatures rose significantly with freeing levels well above 2000m.
    In summary conditions are better than last week and with some good skiing conditions at the highest slopes. However conditions are still generally worse than normal at this time of year and lower slopes are either closed or offer pretty poor conditions.


    [b]Synoptic Situation[/b]

    There is an alternating pattern this coming week, ranging from mild South westerly and a Tropical Maritime air mass and a colder Polar Maritime air mass from the North West.
    Currently there is a South Westerly flow and a Tropical Maritime air mass over the Alps with 850HPa of +7c to +8c for parts of Austria.

    [attachment=233983:Alps 19 Dec.png]

    This is short-lived though as it turns colder from the North West, with a Polar Maritime air mass and a cold front bringing some precipitation overnight. This cold weather slowly spreading south east across the Alps on Saturday,

    [attachment=233984:Alps 19 Dec +24.JPG]

    However this in turn is short lived as on Sunday turning milder as the winds revert South Westerly over the Western Alps. However remaining much colder over NE Austria for much of Sunday with 850HPa below -5c.

    [attachment=233990:Alps 19 Dec +51.JPG]
    Monday seeing things turning much milder across all the Alps with the Azores High also bringing drier conditions with 850Hpa up to +7 to +8c in places.

    [attachment=233991:Alps 19 Dec +75.JPG] [attachment=233986:Alps 19 Dec +96.JPG]

    This pattern looks likely to stay in charge through to Wednesday, with South Westerly winds and High Pressure, perhaps slightly less mild.

    [attachment=234007:Alps 19 Dec +120.JPG]

    More uncertainty for Christmas Day and the end of the week, but signs but signs of colder weather from the north with the greatest risk of this is over Eastern areas of the Alps especially for Austria.

    [attachment=234009:Alps 19 Dec +144.JPG]

    [b]Precipitation[/b]
    A weak cold Front from the NW edges in the overnight period into Saturday perhaps bringing a few cms of snow above 1500m to Northern parts of the Alps before it fizzles away Saturday morning.

    Another weak front from the north is set to give a few cms of snow to resort level to SE Germany, Western and Central areas of Austria during the early hours of Sunday morning.

    For Christmas Day, another weak front from the north is set to give a few cms of snow above about 1200-1500m for SE Germany, N Switzerland and Western and Central areas of Austria, but this is a lot of uncertainty about this.

    The precipitation very much concentrated on the North of the Alps with some southern areas being totally dry.

    [attachment=234022:Rmgfs144sum.gif]

    [b]Freezing Levels[/b] (Based on 12Hz GFS run - Fri 19 Dec)

    Sat – 1200m-1600m S Germany, Northern parts of Austria rising going south to over 2000m for for Northern Italy but colder later
    Sun – 800m-1000m North Eastern Austria rising steadily moving South and West, over 2000m for French Alps and SW Switzerland.
    [attachment=233967:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +24.png] [attachment=233968:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +48.png]
    Mon – 2200m-2400m Austria and SE Germany rising moving South and West, over 3000m for French Alps. S Switzerland and Italy.
    Tue – 2800m-3000m Austria and SE Germany rising moving South and West, 3200-3400m for French Alps. S Switzerland and Italy.
    Wed – 2200m-2400m NW Alps slowly rising to 2600-2800m further SE
    [attachment=233969:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +72.png] [attachment=233971:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +96.png][attachment=233973:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +120.png]
    Thu– 1000m NE Austria. 1600-1800m Central areas, over 2000m French Alps, S Switzerland and N Italy Fri – 600m NE Austria. 1200-1400m Central areas, 1600- 1800m French Alps and SW Switzerland.
    [attachment=233974:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +144.png][attachment=233975:Alps Temps Snow 19 Dec +168.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Turning colder briefly this weekend with a little snow, before much milder again for the start of next week.

    Signs of things turning a little colder for Christmas Day and the end of the week with a little snow, both more especially for Northern and Eastern parts of the Alps.
  5. J10
    [b]Background and Current Position[/b]

    There have been a number of articles about the lack of snow in the Alps. As move in the middle of December, this is the time of year when many resorts open however the lack of snow at some resorts has meant this being delayed. What has helped though is some snowfall to low levels and some cold weather allowing those all important snow cannons to operate.

    So in summary conditions are worse than normal, but we have seen worse years.

    [b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]

    So on this basis, we would like to see the better conditions of recent day set to continue.

    Looking at today's weather pattern, there is low pressure over Iceland, with cold North westerly winds over North western Europe. The Azores High covers the Southern Atlantic, there is also a small low pressure system over Portugal and this is feeding up mild South Westerly winds over the Alps, with 850HPa temps around 5c for Northern Alps, cooler further south.

    [attachment=233152:Alps 13 Dec.png] [attachment=233153:Alps 13 Dec +24.png]

    By the start of next week, the flow from Portugal gets cut off and the mild air gets mixed out a bit, and with no dominant weather pattern and a weak westerly veering North Westerly flow, 850Hpa temps gradually drop closer to zero.

    [attachment=233154:Alps 13 Dec +48.png] [attachment=233155:Alps 13 Dec +72.png]

    By the mid part of next week, the Azores High slowly start edging east and on its northern flank, it brings some mild Tropical Maritime air mass for NW Europe and The Alps, so upper temps rising up back above 5c at 850HPa. This is associated with a warm front, so some moderate precipitation seems likely.

    [attachment=233156:Alps 13 Dec +96.png] [attachment=233157:Alps 13 Dec +120.png] [attachment=233158:Alps 13 Dec +144.png]
    [b]Alps Freezing Levels[/b]

    Sat – 1600m-2000m Southern Switzerland, SW Austria and Northern Italy, 2200m-2400m elsewhere.
    Sun – 1800m-2000m Southern Switzerland, SW Austria and Northern Italy, 2000m-2200m elsewhere.
    Mon – 1800m-2000m France, Switerlnad and SW Germany, 2000m-2200m Austria, SE Germany, Italy
    Tue – 1000m-1600m S Germany, French Alps, N Switzerland, N Austria. 1600-2000m elsewhere
    Wed– 1600m-2000m E Austria, 1800-2400m elsewhere, rising as you go further west
    Thu– 2200-2600m Central Alps, 2600-3000m Far Southern Switzerland and Italy
    Fri– 2600m S Germany and N Austria rising steadily moving south to 3200m over Northern Italy

    Some cold nights to start the week mean ample opportunity for the use of snow cannons.

    [attachment=233159:Alps Temps 13 Dec.png] [attachment=233161:Alps Temps Snow 13 Dec +48.png] [attachment=233162:Alps Temps Snow 13 Dec +72.png] [attachment=233163:Alps Temps Snow 13 Dec +96.png] [attachment=233164:Alps Temps Snow 13 Dec +120.png] [attachment=233160:Alps Temps 13 Dec +120.png]

    [b]Precipitation[/b]

    Mostly dry this weekend, but some patchy precipitation fringing the NW of the Alps Saturday evening into Sunday with snow above 1600m or so.

    This is set to become a little more organized Sunday into Monday for Northern and Western parts of the Alps Sunday into Monday, with snow above 1600m or so.

    This moving into more Central areas overnight and into Tuesday and becoming concentrated in Austria later on Tuesday with snow above 1200m (N) -1600m (S) or so.

    On Wednesday, a frontal system is set to move in the North west, bringing some heavy persistent precipitation this is set to last through Wednesday and for much of Thursday. the heaviest precipitation likely for Northern Switzerland and NW Austria a lesser extent for S Germany, France and other parts of Switzerland and to a lesser extent for S Switzerland. Snow level around 2200-2400m .

    The GFS goes for some heavy precipitation this week for the Northern half of the Alps, most of this is forecast from Wednesday to Friday, with over 2 inches of precipitation expected.

    [attachment=233165:Rmgfs144sum.gif]

    As can be seen by the precipitation up to Wednesday. which is much drier.

    [attachment=233166:Rmgfs96sum.gif]

    [b]Summary [/b]

    Mostly Mild this week, and with moderate precipitation at time, however most of the snow reserved for higher resorts. However the heavy precipitation event expected for midweek needs further monitoring, as with a lower freezing level this would transform the Alps leading into Christmas.
  6. J10
    [b]Background and Current Position[/b]

    This is the first Alps blog for the winter season 2014-15, so far this autumn/winter period it has been mixed for snow conditions. There has been some snow at times even down to some lower levels, however due to the milder weather recently much of this has thawed, although parts of Austria did see some fresh snow last week.

    [b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]

    Currently the main driver for the Alps is low pressure to the South West of Italy, with East to North Easterly winds for the Alps, and 850HPa temps below freezing for the North and East and above freezing for the South and West.
    There is also a High Pressure system in the Atlantic, and low pressure centred over Iceland, brining a cooler air mass into NW Europe.

    [attachment=232096:Alps 6 Dec.png] [attachment=232097:Alps 6 Dec +24.png]

    Into next week, the initial low pressure will edge away to the South, with cooler winds from the North West edging in for Monday, Upper Temps still above freezing far south of Alps, but below freezing elsewhere and close to -5c for the German Alps.

    [attachment=232098:Alps 6 Dec +48.png]

    Colder weather from the above pattern pushes in for Tuesday, with 850HPa temps below -5c for much of the Alps, with North Easterly winds. With Low pressure to the South East of the Alps

    [attachment=232099:Alps 6 Dec +72.png]

    The winds are forecast to slowly veer in the Wednesday – Friday period, from initially North Westerly to Westerly on Thursday and then South westerly on Friday. This is due to High Pressure ridging up a little from the South and South West. The air mass is likely to be Returning Polar Maritime, 850HPa temps back closer to zero.
    [attachment=232100:Alps 6 Dec +96.png] [attachment=232101:Alps 6 Dec +120.png] [attachment=232102:Alps 6 Dec +144.png]

    [b]Alps Freezing Levels[/b]

    Sat – 800m-1000m North West, sharp gradient moving South East. 1400-1600m generally South East, and 1800-2000m locally South East Switzerland
    Sun – 800m-1000m North West, gradient moving South East. 1200-1400m generally South East, and 1600-1800m locally South East Switzerland
    Mon – 800m-1000m North 1200-1400m Central, and 1600-1800m locally South East Switzerland
    Tue – 600m-800m North and Central, 1000-1200m S Switzerland and N Italy
    Wed– 600m-800m E Austria, 1000-1400m Central Areas, 1600-1800m Far South West
    Thu– 1000m-1400m North and Central, 1400-1600m S Switzerland and N Italy
    Fri– Variable 1200-2200m

    [attachment=232141:Alps Temps 6 Dec.png] [attachment=232142:Alps Temps 6 Dec +48.png] [attachment=232143:Alps Temps 6 Dec +96.png] [attachment=232144:Alps Temps 6 Dec +144.png]

    [b]Precipitation[/b]
    [b]Weekend – [/b]Showery precipitation mostly, perhaps more persistent at times over Austria, snow levels 600m (NW) , and about 800-1000m elsewhere, higher to start in S Switzerland. Could be moderate snowfalls over parts of Austria over say 1000m

    [b]Early Next Week[/b] - In association with colder weather from North West, bands of precipitation will edge in from the north West. Areas over 1000m should see this fall mostly as snow, with snow levels closer to 600m at times, the heaviest off the snowfall for Germany, French Alps, Switzerland and W Austria.

    [b]Late Next Week[/b] - A bit drier, especially for Southern areas, although some precipitation at times for Northern parts of the Alps Snowfall above 1400, by day, closer to 800m by night.

    [b]Totals [/b]- Not massively impressive, wit up to an inch of precipitation possible next week.

    [attachment=232145:Rmgfs144sum 6 dec.gif]

    [b]Summary –[/b]

    Good Snow building Conditions seem likely for the early part of next week, and if the forecasts are correct good skiing conditions to fairly low levels towards the end of next week
  7. J10
    So today the gates opened on Glastonbury, and we are finally here at the Final Blog for Glastonbury.

    Today looks a bit better than predicted for Glastonbury, with more in the way of sunny spells, than recently suggested.

    I'll now split the forecast into the next 48hrs, which is the range of the higher details models and then the remainder of the forecast.

    [b]Synoptic Summary[/b]

    As the main focus in now on the day to day detail, I was firstly summarise the Synoptic position. Low Pressure to the west of Ireland Early Thursday, will push eastwards, and a front ahead of it will bring some rain on Thursday for SW England.

    By Friday the centre of the Low Pressure (1010mb) will move eastwards along Southern Britain only finally clearing Eastern Britain later in the day, and as such Friday will be very unsettled with some heavy showers. Even though the centre of the Low will be away to the continent over the weekend, pressure will still be low over the UK, below 1015mb until Late Sunday, and as such it will remain unsettled with further heavy showers, by Sunday evening, Higher Pressure (above 1015mb) will have nudged into Western UK, and the showery potential will steadily decrease later on Sunday.

    [attachment=217316:GFS 24.png] [attachment=217315:GFS 36.png] [attachment=217319:GFS 48.png]
    [attachment=217317:UKMO 25 -28 00.png] [attachment=217314:UKMO 25 - 28 12.png]
    [attachment=217318:UKMO 25 - 29 00.png] [attachment=217313:UKMO 25 - 29 12.png]

    [b]Thursday 26th[/b]
    Tomorrow is expected to start on a dry note, with some sunny spells likely in the morning and early afternoon, however cloud is likely to edge in from the South West from early afternoon onward, with rain likely from about mid afternoon most likely around 3pm. Some moderate pulses of rain are expected until around about 9pm when it clears away to the North East. Total rainfall is expected to be around 5-8mm according to the latest UKMO4 run, however even now there is a degree with much heavier rain not that far away.

    [attachment=217304:UKMO4 06 T+33.gif] [attachment=217303:UKMO4 06 T+36.gif] [attachment=217302:UKMO4 06 T+39.gif]

    [attachment=217310:UKMO4 12 T+24.gif] [attachment=217309:UKMO4 12 T+27.gif] [attachment=217308:UKMO4 T+30.gif] [attachment=217307:UKMO4 T+33.gif]

    [b]Friday 27th[/b]
    There is likely to be a dry period after the initial rain band edges through, currently this is forecast to cover the early hours of Friday and into Friday morning. However as the day progresses some heavy showers are likely to develop, and these may be prolonged, with the chance of thunder, and the increasing possibility of muddy conditions. The showers are likely to continue through the day and into the early evening. As ever with showers, they are hit and miss, and as such rainfall amounts are difficult to predict, but a washout is possible.

    [attachment=217301:UKMO 06 T+42.gif] [attachment=217300:UKMO 06 T+45.gif] [attachment=217299:UKMO4 06 T+48.gif]
    [attachment=217306:UKMO4 12 T+36.gif] [attachment=217305:UKMO4 T+42.gif] [attachment=217311:UKMO4 12 T+45.gif] [attachment=217312:UKMO4 12 T+48.gif]

    [attachment=217276:GFS 25 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG]

    [b]Saturday 28th[/b]

    [attachment=217275:GFS 25 June to 28 June 12Hz 00.JPG] [attachment=217274:GFS 25 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=217269:GFS 25 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217268:GFS 25 June to 28 June 06Hz 00.JPG]

    After a dry overnight period, it seems likely that showers will get going quite quickly during the morning, and continue into the afternoon and at least the first part of the evening, some of these are likely to be heavy with the chance of some thunder, but as usual it is a case of hit or miss for Glastonbury. The showers are likely to decline in number as we move into the evening, and another mostly dry overnight period is likely.

    [b]Sunday 29th[/b]

    [attachment=217270:GFS 25 June to 29 June 06Hz 00.JPG] [attachment=217271:GFS 25 June to 29 June 06Hz 12.JPG] [attachment=217272:GFS 25 June to 29 June 12Hz 12.JPG] [attachment=217273:GFS 25 June to 29 June 12Hz 00.JPG]

    For Sunday, showers are again likely to develop late morning and for the afternoon, before fading again once again for the evening. However as pressure slowly increases from the west, the showers are likely to be less frequent and generally not as heavy as for the previous 2 days.

    [b]Summary[/b]

    It now seems likely that the rain will arrive some time Tomorrow afternoon, after a bright start tomorrow. For both Friday and Saturday,, there are likely to be daytime showers, which are likely to be heavy and cause the distinct possibility of mud issues on site, the amount of mud issues, largely come down to luck about how badly the showers hit Glastonbury, of course the groundwork on site over recent years should help somewhat. Further showers are likely on Sunday, but these should be lighter and less frequent than previous days.

    This concludes my final blog, I hope everyone at Glastonbury has a great time. Fingers Crossed for good weather luck.

    [b][b]Links [/b][/b]
    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweat...2014/?p=2992773[/url]

    Any further comments will be in the main thread.
  8. J10
    So the gates open tomorrow, and what does the last minute weather models show us. We pretty much know that tomorrow will be dry and bright, but the big question is, how much rain will the Low pressure bring to Glastonbury over the subsequent days.

    We have passed the point of overall ratings, so I will not be showing that any more in favour of daily summaries and forecasts.

    Moving very swiftly onto the daily forecasts.

    [b]Wednesday 25th June [/b]

    With so much agreement on the overall position, just the one synoptic chart, High Pressure has finally weakened over the UK, with pressure over 1016mb for Southern areas, a mostly dry day is in the offing if rather cloudy, the odd shower cannot be ruled out, but dry or mostly dry, Temps edging into the low 20s, perhaps a bit more if the sun pops out.

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217201] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217206]
    [b]Thursday 26th[/b]

    For Thursday, there is low pressure (1012mb around Ireland) moving eastwards during the day with fronts ahead of it towards the South West of the UK. These fronts are suggested to make slow progress eastwards towards Glastonbury from the west. As ever there are timing issues,

    UKMO suggests that a mostly dry daytime indeed with some sunny intervals for a time during the afternoon, with some patchy rain arriving around 7pm and with periods of rain continuing through the evening and through to Friday.

    GFS 12Hz brings the rain in sooner, for mid afternoon and clearing away overnight, most of the rain is likely to be patchy in nature. [GFS 06Hz was similar in timing, but had heavier rain associated with it].

    ECM suggest rainfall edging in for the evening, similar to UKMO.

    Temps are likely be very decent into the low 20s for Thursday afternoon.

    [b]GFS[/b]

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217193] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217200] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217205]
    [b]UKMO / ECM[/b]

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217212] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217222]

    [b]Friday 27th[/b]

    Synoptically better agreement for Friday, the Low Pressure is set to be to the South West of the UK around Midnight and move Eastwards by midday with the Low Pressure bang on top of Southern England (1010mb), this is understandably likely to give unsettled weather for these areas.

    By looking at the GFS charts below, there is heavy to moderate rain over much of Southern England on Friday.

    The UKMO is very similar with showers / outbreaks of rain likely through Friday and this could well cause some problems with some mud.

    ECM goes for some rain, the heaviest likely to be for the late afternoon/early evening period.

    [b]GFS[/b]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217194] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217199] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217204]

    [b]UKMO/ECM[/b]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217215] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217218]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217211] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217221]

    [b]Saturday 28th[/b]

    Low Pressure is set to remain for southern Britain on Saturday (1012mb), even though the core of the Low pressure (1008mb) moves away into Southern Scandinavia during the day. As a result staying rather unsettled once again.

    It seems likely that there will be a decent start to the day, however into the afternoon, showery outbreaks of rain are expected and these may be heavy, with the chance of some thunder, although the showers may be hit or miss There is also the possibility of more organised period of rain edging in from the South West later. To end on a positive note the rain should fade away overnight and it should turn drier. Temps are likely to be in the high teens and feeling pleasant if there are some sunny intervals between the showers.

    [b]GFS[/b]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217195] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217198] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217203]

    [b]UKMO/ECM[/b]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217214] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217217]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217210] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217220]

    [b]Sunday 29th[/b]

    Pressure is slowly set to build from the west during the day, but this is slower than was even indicated yesterday. On the ground this is likely to mean a day of sunshine and showers, however as things stand with more of an emphasis on sunshine than showers. Temperatures again likely to be in the high teens.

    [b]GFS[/b]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217202] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217196] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217197]

    [b]UKMO / ECM[/b]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217213] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217216]
    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217209] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217223]

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217208] [attachment=217226:Ensemble Pressure 24 June 06Hz.png]
    [attachment=217224:Ensemble Rainfall 24 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=217225:Ensemble Pressure 24 June 12Hz.png]
    Both sets of ensembles sees pressure drop during the festival to around 1010mb by Friday, the 06Hz sees a slight rise by the end of the festival, the 12Hz keeps it at 1010mb until Friday.
    Both sets of ensembles go for persistent daytime rainfall for Friday through to Sunday.

    [b]Summary[/b]

    The theme yesterday of a dry Thursday looks most mostly correct, although some rain is possible for the evening. The trend for the weeknd continues to worsen.

    Friday and Saturday are both looking potentially troublesome in terms of rainfall, enough to quite possible cause mud issues, and depending on the luck with the showers, this may range to minor amounts of mud, and moderate amounts of mud. Perhaps then a bit better on Saturday.

    Sunglasses and sun cream may be needed for the festival, to start and between the showers for the weekend, but wellies look an absolute must, they may not be needed, but I would suggest they probably would. It is a good job, I have stopped the ratings, as it would have bee worse than the 6 of yesterday.,

    The final blog will be tomorrow, and with further updates on the main thread, please keep in touch on there and don't be afraid to post photos on the main thread, of yourselves at Glastonbury and the weather conditions on site, even to prove me wrong, if the weather turns out better than I fear, I hope that happens anyway.

    [b][b]Links [/b][/b]
    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweat...2014/?p=2992773[/url]
  9. J10
    So all of a sudden it is two days to go before the gates open at Glastonbury 2014, do we finally have an idea of the weather for the festival. The general theme is sorted to an extent, a decent day Wednesday with the remnants the settled spell before getting worse Thursday/Friday, and possibly improving again over the weekend. However even the above summary give a large scope of variation for the detailed ground conditions at Glastonbury.

    [b]Previous Runs[/b]
    Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
    Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
    Forecast no 14 (21 June) - 6.0
    with 0 = Dustbowl 10 = Mudbath

    Onto the daily forecasts

    [b]Wednesday 25th June [/b]

    Decent agreement between all operational runs, that the High Pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North East of the UK with pressure just below 1020mb over the UK.

    For the runs focussing on midday, lower pressure edging closer to the UK from the west, but looking mostly dry for Wednesday for Glastonbury, perhaps the odd shower at worst. Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly. (Pretty much the same summary as for the last few days)

    Some brightness / Sunny spells are possible, but in general there is likely to be a good deal of cloud cover, temps high teens low 20s, feeling warm in any sunny spells.

    [b]GFS[/b]

    [attachment=217081:GFS 23 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217090:GFS 23 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]

    [b]UKMO / ECM[/b]

    [attachment=217099:ECM 23 June to 25 June 00Hz.png]

    [b]Thursday 26th[/b]
    Synoptically there is good agreement that by 12 noon, there will Low Pressure of around 1010mb to the west of the UK, with pressure of around 1015mb for the south coast of England and 1020mb for Northern Scotland. The UKMO runs yesterdays were a bit progressive in pushing Low Pressure over the UK. As such the UKMO model has less rainfall over Glastonbury than yesterday suggested. GFS 06Hz suggests moderate rain on Thursday, but the other models also tend to reduce the rainfall for Thursday daytime.

    However Thursday evening is expected to see some rainfall for Glastonbury edge in from the West/ South west, with spme agreement on this between the models.

    [b]GFS[/b]
    [attachment=217082:GFS 23 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217089:GFS 23 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG]

    [b]UKMO / ECM[/b]
    [attachment=217102:UKMO From 23 June to 26 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=217112:UKMO from 23 June to 26 June.png]
    [attachment=217098:ECM 23 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217124:ECM 23 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Friday 27th[/b]

    For Friday, the low pressure is set to the South west of the Uk overnight and move eastwards to be centred over southern England by mid afternoon. as such Friday is set to be unsettled. The current most likely outcome is for frontal rainfall to edge in from the south west overnight, the intensity of this rainfall varies from light and patchy (ECMO) to heavy (GFS) with heavy showery rainfall (UKMO) It seems likely that for the rest of the day there is the potential for further heavy outbreaks of rain, but with some drier slots in between.

    GFS

    [attachment=217083:GFS 23 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217088:GFS 23 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG]

    UKMO/ECM
    [attachment=217101:UKMO From 23 June to 27 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=217111:UKMO from 23 June to 27 June.png]
    [attachment=217097:ECM 23 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217109:ECM Ens 23 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217123:ECM 23 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Saturday 28th[/b]

    The current trend is for the core of the low pressure to move away into the continent for Saturday, however pressure over the UK is set to be low around 1015mb for southern UK, and with an Easterly wind, there is the potential for further showery outbreaks of rain after a fairly dry overnight period. The heaviest of the showers likely to be during the afternoon, perhaps easing off into the evening as pressure nudges in from the west.
    GFS
    [attachment=217084:GFS 23 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217087:GFS 23 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG]

    UKMO/ECM
    [attachment=217100:UKMO From 23 June to 28 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=217110:UKMO from 23 June to 28 June.png]
    [attachment=217096:ECM 23 June to 28 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217122:ECM 23 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]
    [attachment=217100:UKMO From 23 June to 28 June 00Hz.gif]
    [b]Sunday 29th[/b]

    Pressure is slowly set to build from the west, but not as quickly as some runs yesterday tries to indicate. so with still fairly lowish presure , there is further potential for sowers, but these are not likely to be widespread or as heavy as those on Saturday, so hopefully a decent end to the festival, and hopefully some sunshine.

    GFS

    [attachment=217085:GFS 23 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217086:GFS 23 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

    UKMO / ECM
    [attachment=217126:UKMO From 23 June to 29 June 12Hz.gif]
    [attachment=217095:ECM 23 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217107:ECM Ens 23 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217125:ECM 23 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

    Both sets of ensembles sees pressure drop during the festival, moreso for the 12H z to around 1010mb, and then rise slowly over the weekend. The ensembles indicate a dry Wednesday and daytime Thursday, but with some rain likely on Friday and over the weekend. The 12Hz run is worse for rainfall amounts. Temps OK to start but cool by Friday and for the weekend.
    [attachment=217092:Ensemble Rainfall 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=217093:Ensemble Pressure 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=217094:Ensemble Temps 23 June 06Hz.png]

    [attachment=217117:Ensemble Rainfall 23 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=217118:Ensemble Pressure 23 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=217116:Ensemble Temps 23 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    A few changes from yesterday, Thursday looks drier than yesterday suggested to give 2 dry days to start, but Friday looks a bit wetter, and there is greater potential for some showers over the weekend.

    Definitely pack your wellies, for Friday and perhaps the weekend, and also your sunscreen, which might also be needed over the weekend.

    On this basis I'll keep the rating at 6, and if anything uncertainty about the weather is greater than yesterday.

    [b]The final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.[/b]

    [b][b]Links [/b][/b]
    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweat...2014/?p=2992773[/url]
  10. J10
    This is the latest blog for the Glastonbury festival.

    [b]Previous Runs[/b]
    Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
    Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
    Forecast no 14 (21 June) - 6.0
    with 0 = Dustbowl 10 = Mudbath

    [b]Wednesday 25th[/b]

    Decent agreement between all operational runs, that the High Pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North East of the UK with pressure just below 1020mb over the UK.

    For the runs focussing on midday, lower pressure edging closer to the UK from the west, but looking mostly dry for Wednesday for Glastonbury, perhaps the odd shower at worst. Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly.

    GFS

    [attachment=216966:GFS 22 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216975:GFS 22 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]

    UKMO / ECM

    [attachment=216991:UKMO From 22 June to 25 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216979:UKMO From 22 June to 25 June 12Hz.gif]
    [attachment=216996:ECM 22 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217001:ECM 22 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Thursday 26th[/b]

    A general agreement in the pattern with Low Pressure to the North West of the Uk at Midnight moving South Westwards across the UK to be centred over South Western UK later in the day, perhaps the UKMO run is a bit more progressive in bringing the Low Pressure in quicker than the other runs. So if the UKMO run is correct moderate to heavy rain is likely over Glastonbury on Thursday through the evening slowly lessening in intensity, otter models have the rain edging in later. With the GFS 12hz keeping things mostly dry.

    GFS

    [attachment=216967:GFS 22 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216974:GFS 22 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG]

    UKMO / ECM
    [attachment=216990:UKMO From 22 June to 26 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216978:UKMO From 22 June to 26 June 12Hz.gif]
    [attachment=216995:ECM 22 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217000:ECM 22 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Friday 27th[/b]

    Fairly good agreement on the pressure pattern for Friday. With low pressure weather to the west of the Uk, or over the UK (centred over the south) in the UKMO case. The on the ground pattern is a bit clearer though, with low pressure and winds from the south west, showery outbreaks of rain seem likely, some of these could be heavy, but it is impossible to say if Glastonbury gets the worst of the showers.

    GFS
    [attachment=216968:GFS 22 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216973:GFS 22 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG]

    UKMO/ECM
    [attachment=216989:UKMO From 22 June to 27 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216977:UKMO From 22 June to 27 June 12Hz.gif]
    [attachment=216994:ECM 22 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216999:ECM 22 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Saturday 28th[/b]

    A bit more uncertainty again for Saturday, but it ECM/UKMO tends to show Low Pressure over the UK to start before edging away to the East later. The GFS 06Hz tends to agree with this but the GFS 12Hz run keeps the low pressure away out to the west. The most likely scenario is that the ECM/UKMO/GFs 06hz is correct and if so, then it is likely to be drier on Saturday than Thursday and Friday, with more in the way of brighter weather but given that pressure is still between 1015-1020mb, some showers cannot be ruled out.

    GFS
    [attachment=216969:GFS 22 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216972:GFS 22 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG]

    UKMO/ECM
    [attachment=216988:UKMO From 22 June to 28 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216976:UKMO From 22 June to 28 June 12Hz.gif]
    [attachment=216993:ECM 22 June to 28 June 00Hz.png]] [attachment=216998:ECM 22 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Sunday 29th[/b]

    No UKMO available for Sunday, but the both ECM runs try to build pressure giving some decent conditions. Ad does the GFS 06Zh run, the 12Hz keep the low pressure out west, with increased risk of some showers on S/SE winds for Glastonbury. However again the first option seems the most likely, so a mix of bright/sunny spells but some showers possible, but probable more scattered than on Saturday.

    GFS

    [attachment=216970:GFS 22 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216971:GFS 22 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

    ECM

    [attachment=216992:ECM 22 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217002:ECM 22 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]

    ECM Rainfall Predictions

    More on these here - > [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773[/url]
    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

    Only the 12Hz run available today, the average pressure is always below 1020mb, and drops close to 1015mb by mid festival. But always a huge variety of outcomes, a large number of ensembles go for moderate rain over the festival weekend, while temps always on the cool side.

    [attachment=216980:Ensemble Rainfall 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216981:Ensemble Pressure 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216982:Ensemble Temps 22 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    After a seemingly dry start to the festival, it looks as if it will turn unsettled Thursday and Friday before progressively turning more settled and drier over the weekend.

    So some moderate frontal rainfall on Thursday with some showers expected on Friday, this is likely to give some mud perhaps Thursday evening and into Friday, but unless the showery rainfall is heavy on Friday, ground conditions should be reasonable for the weekend, and at no time is a mud bath expected, even during/after the frontal rainfall.

    So pack your wellies, but on a positive note also your sunscreen for the weekend especially Sunday. at the moment Wednesday is looking a bit cloudy.

    On this basis I'll keep the rating at 6.

    I know my forecast is out of kilter with those elsewhere, and hopefully I am wrong it would not be the first time. However the trend is currently in one direction.

    [b]Future Runs will continue giving estimates for each day of the festival, the final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.[/b]
    [b][b]Links [/b][/b]
    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773[/url]
  11. J10
    This is the latest blog for the Glastonbury festival.

    Previous Runs
    Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
    Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
    with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

    [b]Wednesday 25th[/b]

    Good Agreement between the GFS runs, UKMO 06Hz run and both runs that the High Pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North East of the UK and a ridge of around 1020mb over the UK.

    However lower pressure starting to edge in from the North West according to UKMO 12Hz, not impacting on Wednesday's weather but ominous for Thursday.Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly, so not exactly hot, it should be mostly dry but the odd shower is possible.

    GFS
    [attachment=216872:GFS 21 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216873:GFS 21 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]

    UKMO / ECM
    [attachment=216883:UKMO From 21 June to 25 June 06Hz.gif] [attachment=216877:UKMO From 21 June to 25 June 12Hz b.gif]
    [attachment=216905:ECM 21 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216899:ECM 20 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Thursday 26th[/b]

    All runs suggest lower pressure for the Thursday, however GFS keeps reasonable pressure over the UK, so again only showers at worst. UKMO/ECM introduce low pressure from the North West, bringing wet and unsettled weather here. looking at the Met Office website " Mainly fine towards the south and east on Thursday, but a steady, if rather uncertain, transition to more unsettled conditions looks likely through the start of this period. " So perhaps an OK weather day in prospect for Glastonbury.

    GFS
    [attachment=216870:GFS 21 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216871:GFS 21 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG]

    UKMO / ECM
    [attachment=216882:UKMO From 21 June to 26 June 06Hz.gif] [attachment=216881:UKMO From 21 June to 26 June 12Hz b.gif]
    [attachment=216904:ECM 21 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216898:ECM 20 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Friday 27th[/b]

    Out of the limb today was the GFS 06Hz which showed the High Pressure hanging on, the GFS 12Hz is very similar to ECM/UKMO Thursday charts of Low Pressure attempting to nudge in. However the most likely option is the UKMO/ECM combo which low pressure centred over the UK, this is likely to bring some spells of rain/showers for most of the UK during the day.

    Obviously this is rather disappointing for Glastonbury, particularly after last nights ECM run.

    GFS
    [attachment=216867:GFS 21 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216868:GFS 21 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG]

    UKMO/ECM
    [attachment=216880:UKMO From 21 June to 27 June 12Hz b.gif]
    [attachment=216903:ECM 21 June to 27 June 00Hz.png][attachment=216897:ECM 20 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]
    [b]Saturday 28th[/b]

    Out of the limb today was the GFS 06Hz which showed the High Pressure hanging on, the GFS 12Hz is again a day behind and very similar to ECM/UKMO Friday charts of Low Pressure into western parts. However the most likely option is the ECM (UKMO does not go past 6 days, but it seem very likely if it did that UKMO would match today's ECM.) Again this is likely to bring some spells of rain/showers for most of the UK during the day.

    GFS
    [attachment=216865:GFS 21 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216866:GFS 21 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG]

    ECM
    [attachment=216902:ECM 21 June to 28 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216896:ECM 20 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Sunday 29th[/b]

    The most likely option at this stage is the ECM with the Low Pressure edging away to the east, and better and drier conditions moving in later in the day for a good end to the festival. GFS 12Hz run has more unsettled, until being under progressive compared to the ECM.

    GFS
    [attachment=216864:GFS 21 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216863:GFS 21 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

    ECM
    [attachment=216901:ECM 21 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216895:ECM 20 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

    [attachment=216874:Ensemble Rainfall 21 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216875:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216876:Ensemble Temps 21 June 06Hz.png]

    The 06hz run solidly has pressure at around 1020mb, however with increasing rainfall over the weekend, according to a number of the ensemble runs, Temps rising over the course of the festival.

    the 12Hz run has much lower pressure with the op run an outlier, again there is increasing rainfall over the weekend, rising remaining quite cool.

    [attachment=216884:Ensemble Rainfall 21 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216885:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216886:Ensemble Temps 21 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]NOAA[/b]

    The final NOAA update

    [attachment=216887:500 HPA 20 June -10day.gif]

    The 6-10 day fun precisely covers the period of the forecast, and again it shows an upper trough over the UK.

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Unfortunately the models has led us up the garden path, there were hopes that the High Pressure would hang on,this now looks very unlikely, with ECM seemingly winning the forecast battle, although its 12Hz run yesterday wasn't helpful in this regard.

    it now looks like at least 2 of the festival day will be rather unsettled, certainly Friday and a part of Saturday, Thursday is a bit more uncertain.

    So some rainfall expected and some mud for a time, however given recent dry conditions this may not be too bad, unless the rainfall from the unsettled weather is very heavy. So pack your wellies, but on a positive note also your sunscreen for the start and possibly end of the festival.

    The rating on this basis is now back to 6.0, unfortunately.

    I know my forecast is out of kilter with those elsewhere, and hopefully I am wrong it would not be the first time. However the trend is currently in one direction.

    [b]Future Runs will continue giving estimates for each day of the festival, the final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.[/b]
    [b][b]Links [/b][/b]
    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
  12. J10
    This is the latest blog for the Glastonbury festival.

    Previous Runs
    Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
    Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
    with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

    A slight change in the format, with an attempt to forecast by days of the festival as opposed to by model.

    [b]Wednesday 25th[/b]

    Decent Agreement that the High pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North and East of the UK and a ridge of High pressure of 1020mb over the UK. Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly, so not exactly hot, mostly dry but perhaps the off shower possible. (ECM 12Hz not shown shows good agreement with the other runs). But overall a decent start to the festival.

    [attachment=216785:GFS 29 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216790:UKMO From 20 June to 25 June 12Hz.gif] [attachment=216789:GFS 29 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216793:ECM 20 June to 22 June 00Hz.png]

    [b]Thursday 26th[/b]

    The GFS keeps a fairly similar synoptic pattern of the Thursday, so similar weather mostly dry, UKMO is a bit different with low pressure over the UK, so rather unsettled and possibly quite wet. ECM 00Hz shows the unsettled weather starting to edge in, however the ECM 12Hz shows High Pressure hanging on of a sort, so things very much in the balance.
    [attachment=216797:GFS 20 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216798:GFS 20 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216799:UKMO From 20 June to 26 June 12Hz.gif][attachment=216801:ECM 20 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216808:ECM 20 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Friday 27th[/b]

    The GFS again keeps a fairly similar synoptic pattern of the Wednesday/ Thursday while the ECM 12Hz tends to agree with this. ECM 00Hz shows unsettled weather from the South East, so quite wet, however signs of High Pressure starting to ridge back in ridge back in from the South West.

    Good agreement from ECM 00Hz Ensembles of being rather unsettled, but a slight tailing off of the GFS ensembles with some runs going a bit more unsettled.

    [attachment=216784:GFS 20 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216788:GFS 20 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216792:ECM 20 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216810:ECM 20 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Saturday 28th[/b]
    Three completely different options available, GFS 06Hz continuing the theme of the start of the festival as does the ECM 12Hz run, GFS 12Hz turning things a bit more unsettled and ECM 00Hz, settling things down after a damp couple of days.
    [attachment=216800:ECM 20 June to 28 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216802:GFS 20 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216803:GFS 20 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216809:ECM 20 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Sunday 29th[/b]

    Both GFS have some sort of unsettled weather for the Sunday, while in contrast ECM brings High pressure in from the west and there should be decent / good conditions. While the ECM 12Hz run keeps things mostly settled.
    [attachment=216791:ECM 20 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216786:GFS 20 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216787:GFS 20 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216811:ECM 20 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

    Pressure remaining around 1020mb on 6Hz, but dropping back by 12Hz. Some ensembles are rather damp but none overly wet, while the temps @850Hpa are around 5-7c, which is below average for the time of year.
    [attachment=216794:Ensemble Temps 20 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216795:Ensemble Rainfall 20 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216796:Ensemble Pressure 20 June 06Hz.png]
    [attachment=216806:Ensemble Temps 20 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216804:Ensemble Rainfall 20 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216805:Ensemble Pressure 20 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]NOAA[/b]

    The 6-10 day fun precisely covers the period of the forecast, and it probably is the most unsettled one for a while, with an upper trough over the UK.
    [attachment=216807:500 HPA 19 June.gif]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    A decent start to the festival, ECM 00Hz as a short lived worsening, with GFS keeping things better, while ECM gets better over the weekend while GFS makes it worse. The ECM 12Hz is very notable in that is gives the opportunity for a mostly settled festival.

    So many options are available, but the ECM 12Hz means there is a higher possibility of a mostly settled festival, than a mostly unsettled festival, , so while rather mixed, could be a lot worse.

    The ECM 12Hz run improves the rating back to a 4.5, slightly better than even.

    Future Runs will continue giving estimates for each day of the festival, the final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.
    [b]Links [/b]
    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
  13. J10
    This is the 12th blog for the Glastonbury festival.

    Previous Runs
    Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
    Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
    with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

    Generally looking mostly settled with High Pressure to the South West, and a ridge of High pressure over the rest of the UK on this Sunday.
    [attachment=216719:ECM 19 June to 22 June 00Hz.png]

    The remainder of the forecast will cover only the festival period itself.

    [b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

    [b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    For Wednesday the 25th June, High Pressure staying around the UK with winds from the North East so not hot by any means, but dry for the South West, similar with Friday with High pressure on the scene, mostly settled and dry, by Sunday the high pressure moves away to the north allowing low pressure to push in from the south, with some moderate to heavy rainfall for late Sunday.

    [attachment=216726:GFS 19 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216728:GFS 19 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216727:GFS 19 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]

    [b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    For the 12Hz run High Pressure staying for South and Western parts of the UK for the start of the festival, so mostly dry, the pressure slowly tending to weaken as moves to Friday but mostly dry at this stage however by the weekend low pressure edging in from the west, with some moderate rainfall at times, et at times, but no absolute washout.

    [attachment=216729:GFS 19 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216737:GFS 19 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216736:GFS 19 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]
    So both GFS runs have a dry start to the festival through till Friday, both with some rainfall expected over the weekend, not as good as some previous runs, but no washout in either case.

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

    [b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    Pressure around 1020 until the Friday, dropping back to just above 1015mb by the Sunday. Rainfall ensembles are mostly dry for Wednesday to Friday, but an increasing number of damp / wet runs over the festival weekend. Temps starting at around 5c @850HPA rising to around 7c, by the Sunday.
    [attachment=216720:Ensemble Temps 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216721:Ensemble Rainfall 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216722:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 06Hz.png]

    [b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    Pressure around 1020 until the Friday, dropping back to just below 1020mb by the Sunday. Rainfall ensembles are mostly dry for Wednesday to Friday, but an increasing number of damp runs over the festival weekend. Temps starting at around 7c @850HPA and staying there.
    [attachment=216740:Ensemble Temps 19 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216741:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216742:Ensemble Rainfall 19 June 12Hz.png]

    The 12Hz runs are a bit better than the 06Hz ensembles.
    [b]ECM / UKMO [/b]

    [b]ECM 00Hz[/b]
    By Wednesday, the High Pressure has leaked away with no dominant pressure over the UK, and Low Pressure to the north West of the UK, this edges across the UK on Thursday and Friday brining some rain, over the weekend a South West flow with High pressure ridging in souther areas, so possibly quite warm with maybe a little dampness, but no heavy rain likely.
    [attachment=216718:ECM 19 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216717:ECM 19 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216716:ECM 19 June to 29 June 00Hz.png]

    The ensembles are slightly better than the op run to start with High Pressure to the south west, however for both the 27th and 29th runs, the the ensembles runs are worse than the op run with lower pressure for the UK.
    [attachment=216744:ECM Ens 19 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216743:ECM Ens 19 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216745:ECM Ens 19 June to 29 June 00Hz.png]

    [b]ECM 12Hz[/b]

    By Wednesday, the High Pressure has leaked away with no dominant pressure over the UK, and Low Pressure to the north West of the UK, this edges across the UK on Thursday and Friday brining some rain and there is also a possibility of some rain to start on Saturday but turning drier later over the weekend with High pressure ridging back up from the South West.

    [attachment=216748:ECM 19 June to 25 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216747:ECM 19 June to 27 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216746:ECM 19 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]UKMO[/b]

    High Pressure over the UK to start the festival according to the UKMO.
    [attachment=216723:UKMO From 19 June to 25 June 12Hz.gif]

    [b]NOAA[/b]

    Neutral pressure over western UK, with an upper trough to the east of the UK.
    [attachment=216739:500 HPA 18 June.gif]
    [b]Summary[/b]

    [b]Positives[/b]
    UKMO run shows a settled start to the festival
    GFS / GEFS Ensembles suggest a dry settled start to the festival
    [b]Neutral[/b]
    NOAA has neutral upper pressure for western areas.
    [b]Negatives[/b]
    GFS / GFS Ensembles has things turning a little bit more unsettled over the weekend with some rain
    ECM takes thing rather unsettled to start the festival.
    ECM Ensembles keep a rather unsettled theme for the festival weekend as well.

    Overall a mixed set of charts today and a slight worsening of the score to 5.5. But no real washout charts in the offing.

    [b]Links [/b]
    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
  14. J10
    This is the 11th blog for the Glastonbury festival.

    [b]Previous Runs[/b]
    Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
    Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
    with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

    [attachment=216675:Trendline to 17 June.JPG]

    After the ominous charts on Monday 16th, a lot better charts yesterday, resulting in a better rating, will today continue the trend.

    [b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

    [b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    High Pressure centred to the West UK west on the 22nd, this builds over the UK to start next week, then moves back South Westwards, but still with High Pressure over the UK to start the festival (25th). This slowly weakens by the Friday allowing lower pressure to the North west of the UK, looking dry for Glastonbury though. Low Pressure tries to edge in over the weekend, but High Pressure to the South West of the UK, should keep things dry for Glastonbury.

    [attachment=216639:GFS 18 June to 22 June 06Hz.JPG]
    [attachment=216637:GFS 18 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216634:GFS 18 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216633:GFS 18 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]

    [b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    High Pressure centred to the West UK west on the 22nd, this builds over the UK to start next week, then moves back South Westwards, but still with High Pressure over the UK to start the festival (25th) and a bit stronger on this run compared to the 06Hz. This slowly weakens by the Friday allowing lower pressure to the North west of the UK, looking mostly dry for Glastonbury though. Low Pressure tries to edge in over the weekend from the north, but it could stay dry for Glastonbury.

    [attachment=216638:GFS 18 June to 22 June 12Hz.JPG]
    [attachment=216636:GFS 18 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216635:GFS 18 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216632:GFS 18 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

    Overall dry to start the festival, with an increased risk of some rain over the weekend, but nothing significant and Glastonbury may well stay dry if GFS is correct.

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
    [b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    Pressure remaining around 1020mb or slightly above for the duration of the festival. The ensembles although not totally dry are pretty dry from now until the end of the festival. Average temps around around 5c @850HPa for the start of the festival, rising back to around 8c by the end.

    [attachment=216659:Ensemble Rainfall 18 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216660:Ensemble Pressire 18 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216661:Ensemble Temps 18 June 06Hz.png]

    [b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    Pressure rising back to around 1030mb early next week, before dropping back to around 1025mb to start the festival and slightly below 1020mb to end the festival. The rainfall ensembles are pretty dry to start the festival but a few are going for some moderate rainfall over the weekend. Average temps around around 8c @850HPa for the duration of the festival.

    [attachment=216656:Ensemble Temps 18 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216657:Ensemble Rainfall 18 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216658:Ensemble Pressure 18 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]ECM / UKMO [/b]

    [b]ECM 00Hz[/b]

    High Pressure to the South West of the UK on the 22nd, total agreement with ensembles run (not shown). The operational run goes for Low Pressure to nudge in from the North West by Wednesday the 25th, with low pressure over UK by the Friday 27th with cool NW and winds and the probability of some moderate showery rainfall for Glastonbury. The ECM Ensembles keeps decent pressure until the 25th but reduces it by the 27trh,with Pressure down to around 1016mb.

    [attachment=216670:ECM 18 June to 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216669:ECM 18 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216668:ECM 18 June to 27 June 00Hz.png]
    [attachment=216665:ECM Ens 18 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216666:ECM Ens 18 June to 25 June 00Hz.png]

    [b]ECM 12Hz[/b]

    High Pressure to the South West of the UK on the 22nd, The operational run is unsettled by the start of the festival with weak Low Pressure over the UK, with again Low Pressure pushing west over the UK by Friday. Winds from the NW, with some moderate rain possibly for Glastonbury however the LP again centred further north so South Western areas not as wet as areas furth north.
    [attachment=216678:ECM 18 June to 22 June 12Hz b.png] [attachment=216677:ECM 18 June to 25 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216676:ECM 18 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]
    [b]UKMO[/b]

    These runs only go to around the 24th June, but High Pressure ridging over the UK on both runs.
    [attachment=216662:UKMO 18 June to 24 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216663:UKMO 18 June to 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216664:UKMO 18 June to 22 June 00Hz.png]

    [b]NOAA[/b]
    Both charts have an upper ridge close to the west of the UK, but not as dominant as was the case a few days ago.
    [attachment=216671:500 HPA 17 June.gif] [attachment=216672:500 HPA 17 June -10day.gif]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    [b]Positives[/b]
    Decent GFS runs today, looking mostly dry for Glastonbury for the festival.
    UKMO looking positive in keeping HP for the start of the festival.
    06Hz Ensembles looking pretty dry
    [b]Neutral[/b]
    The overall pattern isn't looking as solid as was the case yesterday.
    12Hz Ensembles, dry to start, but with a few wetter runs for the weekend.
    The ECM 00Hz Ensembles show pressure edging away from the UK.
    The Upper Charts keep an upper ridge close to the UK

    [b]Negatives[/b]
    ECM 00Hz run looking unsettled and rather damp at best for the festival.
    ECM 12Hz run looking unsettled and rather damp at best for the festival.

    Overall the charts not looking as good as yesterday, but still a lot better than Monday.

    I would like to improve the rating but given the charts from ECM, I cannot do so, but the GFS means the rating remains at 5.0. 0=Dustbowl, 10 = Heatwave Scale

    Will tomorrow see GFS look more like ECM or ECM look more like GFS. Time will tell.

    [b]Links [/b]
    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
  15. J10
    This is the 10th blog for the Glastonbury festival.

    [b]Previous Runs[/b]
    Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
    Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
    Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
    with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

    [attachment=216591:Trendline to 16 June.JPG]
    So in recent days a trend to an unsettled start to the festival, was it a new trend or maybe a blip.

    [b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

    [b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    High Pressure centred to the west of the UK but covering the UK on the Sunday 22nd. By the Wednesday a battle ground with Low pressure to the north east and High pressure remaining to the west, some rain ending SW but Glastonbury probably remaining mostly dry during to its sheltered location. By the middle of the festival, High pressure ridging back from the SW, keeping things mostly settled. High pressure over the UK on the Sunday, but with one or to fronts trying to nudge in from the west, but not much rainfall for the south.

    [attachment=216568:GFS 17 June to 22 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216570:GFS 17 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216572:GFS 17 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216574:GFS 17 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]

    [b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    High Pressure centred just to the west of the UK but covering the UK on the Sunday 22nd. This pretty much stays in situ until the start of the festival, with pressure circa 1024mb over Glastonbury on the Wednesday. However by the Friday with the pressure has weakened, with no pressure dominating increasing the chance of an odd shower, perhaps low pressure edging up from the South and East bringing some rain on the Sunday.

    [attachment=216569:GFS 17 June to 22 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216571:GFS 17 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216573:GFS 17 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216575:GFS 17 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

    Overall a much drier outlook than yesterday.
    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
    [b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]

    High Pressure dropping back to 1020mb but the 21st, and the average remaining there through the festival. A lot drier ensembles, some runs go for some rain for the festival weekend, but not as much as forecast yesterday by a long way. Average temps dropping to around 5c @850HPa for the start of the festival, rising back to around 8c by the end.

    [attachment=216576:Ensemble Rainfall 17 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216577:Ensemble Pressure 17 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216578:Ensemble Temps 17 June 00Hz.png]

    [b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    High Pressure dropping back to 1020mb but the 21st, rising back above for a few days, but remaining on 1020mb on average for the duration of the festival. Ensembles pretty good in terms of rainfall, again some runs go for some rain for the festival weekend, but not as much as forecast yesterday by a long way. Average temps around 7-8c @850Hpa for the festival.

    [attachment=216586:Ensemble Rainfall 17 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216587:Ensemble Pressure 17 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216588:Ensemble Temps 17 June 12Hz.png]
    [b]NOAA 500mb Forecast [/b]

    An upper ridge to the west of the UK on the 6-10 run and closer to the UK for the 8-14 day run.

    [attachment=216559:500 HPA 16 June.gif] [attachment=216560:500 HPA 16 June -10 day.gif]

    NOAA Animations (Forecast date from 8-16 June - Click to Animate)

    Both keep the trend of the Upper Ridge over or slightly to the west of the UK, however a slight further movement west in recent runs.

    [attachment=216590:NOAA 500mb Heights 6-10 day (8th - 16th June).gif] [attachment=216589:NOAA 500mb Heights 8-14 day (8th - 16th June).gif]

    [b]ECM Operational Runs / Ensembles [/b]

    [b]ECM 00Hz[/b]

    On the 22nd, there is High Pressure to the South and west of the UK, by the 25th, there is a ridge of High pressure from the South West and with no pressure in control by the 27th.
    [attachment=216562:ECM 17 June to 22 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216563:ECM 17 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216564:ECM 17 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216565:ECM Ens 17 June to 22 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216566:ECM Ens 17 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216567:ECM Ens 17 June to 27 June 00Hz.png]

    [b]ECM 12Hz[/b]

    The ECM has High Pressure close to or voer teh UK from the 22nd to the 27th inclusive, so quite promising in terms of the general weather pattern.
    [attachment=216594:ECM 17 June to 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216593:ECM 17 June to 25 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216592:ECM 17 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Positives
    The GFS runs and ensembles are more drier than yesterday
    Pressure is forecast to be higher than yesterday

    Neutral
    The Upper Charts keep an upper ridge close to the UK
    he GFS and Ensembles although drier than yesterday, and not completely dry
    ECM has high pressure to start which slowly weakens over the festival

    Negatives
    Not many today especially compared to recent runs

    A reversal since yesterday and the score improves back to 5.0 and solely on today's runs it be better than that again, bit keeping at 5.0 on a trend basis. 0=Dustbowl, 10 = Heatwave Scale

    Much better charts than yesterday, what will tomorrow bring on this roller-coaster.

    [b]Links [/b]

    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
  16. J10
    This is the 9th blog for the Glastonbury festival.

    [b]Previous Runs[/b]
    Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
    Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
    Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
    Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
    with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

    [attachment=216517:Glastonbury Trendline to 15 June.JPG]

    Until yesterday, things had looked a bit more promising with a bit more longevity of the high Pressure, however yesterday was not so good, is this the start of a new trend or a blip.

    [b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

    [b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    [attachment=216485:GFS 16 June to 22 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216486:GFS 16 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216487:GFS 16 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216488:GFS 16 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]

    Even by next Sunday the 22nd, the High Pressure has moved away to the west. It slowly tuns a little bit more unsettled from the south and East, with rain edging in for the start of next week, with some very heavy rain likely for the 25th (Wednesday), however drier by Thursday with High Pressure nudging back in from the North West. The High Pressure over the UK keeping things dry for the rest of the festival, so some very muddy conditions for Wednesday and Thursday, but drying up considerably over the weekend, both underfoot and weatherwise. Even though it is an outlier in terms of the magnitude of the rainfall to start the festival, good agreement on some rain around this time.

    [b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
    Weak pressure over the UK for next Sunday the 22nd, this slowly edges away with some showers associated with lower pressure edging in from the south from around Tuesday with some heavy rain likely on
    Wednesday. Thereafter similar to the 06Hz with High Pressure nudging in to settled things down over the weekend. One slight chance a few showers likely according to the 12Hz for Thursday.
    [attachment=216492:GFS 16 June to 22 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216491:GFS 16 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216490:GFS 16 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216489:GFS 16 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

    [b]06Hz[/b]

    [attachment=216497:Ensemble Temps 16 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216498:Ensemble Rainfall 16 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216499:Ensemble Pressure 16 June 06Hz.png]

    Pressure falling back to around 1020mb by the 20th, and continuing to drop to around 1015mb for the start of the festival, and remain there or slightly higher throughout. The wettest set of ensembles for quite a while for the festival duration. Temps averaging at the lower end of the 5-10c @ 850HPA.

    [b]12Hz[/b]

    [attachment=216510:Ensemble Temps 16 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216511:Ensemble Rainfall 16 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216512:Ensemble Pressure 16 June 12Hz.png]

    Pressure falling back to around 1020mb by the 20th, and continuing to drop to around 1015-1020mb for the start of the festival, and remain there throughout. The rainfall enesmlbles show a variety of oprion, and are much drier than the 06Hz run. Temps averaging at the lower end of the 5-10c @ 850HPA.

    [b]Trends / Animations [/b]

    [b]Pressure [/b]
    Signs of Pressure edging below 1020mb for the festival indication the increased chance of unsettled weather.
    [attachment=216508:Pressure GIF to 16 June 06Hz.gif]

    Rainfall
    A very recent trend of quite a lot of ensembles going for increased rainfall for the festival. However perhaps today's 06Hz run was a bit of a blip.
    [attachment=216513:Rainfall GIF to 16 June 12Hz.gif]
    [b]NOAA 500mb Forecast [/b]

    [attachment=216500:500 HPA 15 June.gif][attachment=216501:500 HPA 15 June -10 day.gif]

    Similar to yesterday with an upper ridge over the UK and more especially the North and west of the UK, however in light of other forecasts today, the positive pressure anomaly less over Southern and especially Eastern areas, where the lower pressure is expected to come from.

    [b]ECM Operational Runs / Ensembles [/b]

    [b]ECM 00Hz[/b]

    [attachment=216495:ECM 16 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216496:ECM 16 June to 22 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216494:ECM Ens 16 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216493:ECM Ens 16 June to 22 June 00Hz.png]

    High Pressure lingering over the UK to the 22Hz and the operational run, but the the 1020mb isobar has moves away to the west on the ensemble run.
    While for the 25th, Low Pressure for Northern and Western parts of the UK on the operational run, with the UK in between the 1016-1020mb isobars on the ensembles run with no weather pattern dominating.


    [b]ECM 12Hz[/b]
    [attachment=216514:ECM 16 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]
    The operational run has High Pressure to the NW of the UK, with low pressure very close by on the continent.

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Positives
    The Upper Charts keep an upper ridge close to or over the UK


    Neutral
    The ECM runs keep High Pressure close to but not over the UK.
    The 12Hz Ensembles are a bit better than the 06Hz run

    Negatives
    Both Operational GFS runs have low presure and heavy rain forecast to start the festival, but drying up over the weekend in both cases.
    The 06Hz GEFS Ensembles look wet and unsettled for the festival, especially to start.

    A further downward trend today, and back up to 6.0 on the 0=Dustbowl, 10 = Heatwave Scale

    With today's charts indicating the real chance of mud bath conditions to start the festival, although this should dry out very quickly. It is also very interesting to see if the current trend of low pressure edging up from the South and South east in the run-up to the festival is maintained.
    [b]Going Forward[/b]

    I'll update the NOAA upper chart animation tomorrow, and some of the ensembles on Wednesday, probably the rainfall one.

    [b]Links [/b]

    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
  17. J10
    This is the 8th blog for the Glastonbury festival, and covers the runs from Thursday to Saturday inclusive.

    The previous runs have been rated 4.0, 4.0, 5.0, 5.5, 6.5, 5.5,4.5 with 0= Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

    Over the past few days things have looked a bit more promising with pressure around the festival period circa 1020mb, and not much in the way of washout runs, although a completely dry festival equally unlikely, what does today have in store.

    [attachment=216388:Glastonbury Rollercoaster Trendline to 14 June.JPG]

    [b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

    [b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]

    [attachment=216384:GFS 15 June to 22 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216385:GFS 15 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216386:GFS 15 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216387:GFS 15 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]
    High Pressure over the UK on the 22nd, this weakens by the 25th, but still with weak High Pressure, although with Low Pressure seemingly waiting in the wings to the west. Byn the 27th the High Pressure has moved away to Scandinavia, with low pressure over the UK and quite a wet day in prospect. A further wet day in prospect on the Sunday with Low Pressure again in charge. This run is not a complete outlier with the ensembles but one of the more unsettled cluster options.

    [b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]

    [attachment=216389:GFS 15 June to 22 June 12Hz.JPG][attachment=216390:GFS 15 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216391:GFS 15 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216392:GFS 15 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

    High Pressure over the UK on the 22nd, however this moves away to the north by the 25th with Low Pressure edging in from the South East, with some moderate rain for Glastonbury for both the Wedesday and Thursday, but turning drier again as the LP moves away by the Friday. High Pressure nudging in from the South West over weekend, so mostly dry.. As expected this is an outlier, so can be taken wityh a pinch of salt.
    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

    [b]06Hz[/b]

    [attachment=216380:Ensemble Temps 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216381:Ensemble Rainfall 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216382:Ensemble Pressure 15 June 06Hz.png]

    Pressure failing back to around 1020mb by the 21st, and remaining there on average through the festival. as mentioned earlier the unsettled operational run is one of the most unsettled options but not an absolute outlier. In terms of rainfall, many of the runs, go for some rainfall, but not many for an absolute washout.

    [b]12Hz[/b]
    [attachment=216401:Ensemble Temps 15 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216399:Ensemble Rainfall 15 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216400:Ensemble Pressure 15 June 12Hz.png]

    Pressure failing back to around 1020mb by the 21st, and remaining there or slightly below on average through the festival. as mentioned earlier the unsettled operational run is an absolute outlier for the start of the festival. In terms of rainfall, many of the runs, go for some rainfall, but not many for an absolute washout, but there are more ensembles going for moderate rainfall for the 27-29th period, so this is something to watch out for.
    [b]Temps [/b]
    As promised yesterday I said I would look at Temps for the festival, so by looking at 850Hpa temps. I have attached the animation as ever click to animate, there is still a very large degree of uncertainty with the mean figures always between +5 to +10c (@ 850HPa), which is around the Average for late June.

    [attachment=216395:Temps GIF to 15 June 00Hz.gif]

    [b]NOAA 500mb Forecast [/b]

    [attachment=216378:500 HPA 14 June -10 day.gif] [attachment=216379:500 HPA 14 June.gif]
    These both show an upper ridge over the UK, this is more pronounced on the 6-10 day forecast.

    [b]ECM Operational Runs / Ensembles [/b]

    [b]ECM 00Hz[/b]

    The operational run and the Ensemble run both reduce the High Pressure dominance over the UK with the Ensembles having pressure to be in the range 1016-1020mb over the UK.

    [attachment=216402:ECM 15 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216394:ECM Ens 15 June to 25 June 00Hz.png]

    [b]ECM 12Hz[/b]

    The operational run keeps high pressure over western areas of the UK.
    [attachment=216403:ECM 15 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Positives
    The Upper Charts remain positive of an upper ridge over the UK
    The GFS Ensembles (00Hz/12Hz) keeps pressure around the 1020mb
    ECM operational run keeps High Pressure over western parts of the UK.

    Negatives
    Both GFS runs are rather unsettled and wet at times, although neither are an absolute washout.
    ECM operational and ensemble runs not as bullish at keeping High Pressure.
    GFS ensembles indicating a bit more rainfall over the weekend of the festival
    Things are a bit more mixed today, and as such I am giving a rating of 5/10, as things as very neutral at the moment, again with no real sign of a dry or washout festival.(However it is slightly more negative than positive)

    [b]Going Forward[/b]

    I'll update the Animations for Ensemble Pressure and Rainfall tomorrow and the NOAA animation on Tuesday,

    [b]Links [/b]

    Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3[/url]
  18. J10
    This is the 7th blog for the Glastonbury festival, and covers the runs from Thursday to Saturday inclusive.

    The previous runs have been rated 4.0, 4.0, 5.0, 5.5, 6.5, 5.5 with 0= Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

    [sharedmedia=core:attachments:215998]

    The theme has been for a while that High Pressure is likely to remain next week, ith pressure slowly falling back to 1020mb, the big question then was would low pressure take over.

    Onto each of the forecast methods.

    [b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

    As there are 3 days of runs, I will summarise the runs for Thursday and Friday, and a direct link to the forum where I have posted charts.

    [b]Thursday 12th[/b]
    Direct Link on Forum for daily charts - [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988267"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988267[/url]

    Two runs posted today the 06Hz and the 12Hz,

    [b]06Hz[/b] - The run breaks down the HP before the festival, but the HP builds back in and looking relatively decent. (shown 06hz to 22,25,28 June respectively)
    [b]12Hz[/b] - The run keeps the HP a bit longer, an unsettled start on the Wednesday with rain from the South West, but a little drier for the weekend. (shown 12hz to 22,25,28 June respectively)

    [b]Friday 13th[/b]
    Direct Link on Forum for daily charts - [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988621"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988621[/url]

    [b]00Hz[/b] - I don't normally include this run, but today it was very decent, and dry for the start of the festival but turning slightly unsettled over the weekend, but not bad.
    [b]06Hz[/b] - Rather unsettled with a westerly flow, and quite a damp festival period.
    [b]12Hz[/b] - High Pressure never too far away and a mostly dry festival period.

    So 2 out of 3 quite positive runs today, better than recent days have suggested.

    [b]Saturday 14th[/b]

    06Hz - HP on top of the UK on the 22nd, only for Low Pressure to edge in from the South West from the Wednesday a rather wet day on Friday with Low Pressure centred to the North East of the UK. this slowly filling and moving away over the weekend, with further patchy rain on Saturday, but turning drier on Sunday.

    [attachment=216288:GFS 14 June to 22 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216289:GFS 14 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216290:GFS 14 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216291:GFS 14 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]

    12Hz - HP on top of the UK right through to the start of Glastonbury, this slowly edging away on Thursday and Friday, with a chance of some showers over the weekend, more especially Saturday as pressure tries to nudge back in on the Sunday.

    [attachment=216295:GFS 14 June to 22 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216294:GFS 14 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216293:GFS 14 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216292:GFS 14 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

    The 12Hz the better of the run with mostly settled conditions but the 06 isn't terrible apart from the Friday. If you look at the ensembles below the 06Hz doesn't look that much of an outlier - however if you look at Aberdeenshire Pressure you can see the outlier better.

    [attachment=216296:Ensemble Pressure 14 June 06Hz Aberdeenshire.png]

    So the 06Hz run can perhaps be discounted a bit.

    [b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
    Trend Analysis Pressure (click to animate)
    [attachment=216277:Pressure GIF to 13 June.gif]
    Trend Analysis Rainfall (click to animate)
    [attachment=216276:Rainfall GIF to 13 June.gif]

    [b]Today's Runs[/b]

    [b]06Hz[/b]
    [attachment=216274:Ensemble Pressure 14 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216319:Ensemble Rainfall 14 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216278:Ensemble Temps 14 June 06Hz.png]

    [b]12Hz[/b]
    [attachment=216313:Ensemble Pressure 14 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216312:Ensemble Rainfall 14 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216314:Ensemble Temps 14 June 12Hz.png]

    The ensembles trend continues to be pressure around 1025-1030mb for the next few dyas, before falling back to around 1020mb or thereabouts to the end of the run which includes the festival period. However no massive drop off and no huge deluge of rain expected, some rain is likely but no washout expected as things stand.
    [b]NOAA 500mb Forecast [/b]

    6-10 day (Click to Animate from 1st June to 13th June)

    [attachment=216282:NOAA 500mb Heights 6-10 day (1st - 13th June).gif]

    [attachment=216280:500 HPA 13 June.gif] [Last Run - yesterday]

    8-14 day (Click to Animate from 1st June to 13th June)

    [attachment=216281:NOAA 500mb Heights 8-14 day (1st - 13th June).gif]

    [attachment=216279:500 HPA 13 June -10 day.gif] [Last Run - yesterday]

    [b]ECM Operational Runs / Ensembles [/b]

    Thursday 12th - Direct Link on Forum for daily charts - [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988267"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988267[/url]
    High pressure lasting to the 22 June (end of run).
    Friday 13th - Direct Link on Forum for daily charts. - [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988621"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988621[/url]

    ECM Operational Run - High Pressure holding on to the 23rd.

    ECM Ensemble (00Hz and 12Hz) - Again with High Pressure close by around the 23rd.

    Saturday 14th -

    ECM Operational Run - High Pressure holding on to the 24th.

    [attachment=216309:ECM 12 June to 24 June 00Hz.png]

    ECM Ensembles (00Hz)

    [attachment=216310:ECM Ens 14 June to 24 June 00Hz.png]
    High Pressure holding on to the 24th.
    [b]Summary[/b]

    There were signs a few days ago of the pressure falling after the 21st June meaning an unsettled start to the festival, this currently seems less likely, and pressure will hold up, to mgive reasonable weather,, with probably a little bit of rain at times, but not washout as things stand.

    So the latest rating will be 4.5 which is an improvement from 5.5 on Wednesday.

    [b]Going Forward[/b]

    The daily summaries previously in the main thread will appear here as blogs, so there will now be a daily blog until the final full blog on Wednesday 25 June. I have also been keeping an eye on the Temps ensembles, and I'll make my first Temps forecast tomorrow.
  19. J10
    This is the 6th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],

    Previous Blogs Summaries
    No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Positive
    No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Positive
    No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral
    No 4 Issued 1 June - Neutral/Slightly Negative
    No 5 Issued 8 June - Slightly Negative

    The format of the forecasts will change from this one significantly as we are now in GFS range. We came into GFS range on Monday, and I though that after 3 days of runs we might be able to see a pattern even this far out.

    [b]NOAA[/b]

    I have attached the NOAA charts from the 1st -10th June, which forecast the 500mb Anomalies.

    In both cases, click to animate the charts, the First chart is 6-10 days, the Second Charts is 8-14 days, they have been rotated 90 degrees, to enable the UK to be shown a bit clearer.

    [attachment=215981:NOAA 500mb Heights 6-10 day (1st - 10th June).gif] [attachment=215980:NOAA 500mb Heights 8-14 day (1st - 10th June).gif]

    The latest 6-10 day chart shows an upper ridge over the UK extending from Greenland, so in essence, the HP hanging on over the UK.
    The latest 8-14 day chart shows an upper ridge over the Northern and Western parts of the UK extending from Greenland, so again the HP hanging on, but not as securely as per the 6-10 chart.

    If you do not wish to animate the charts, daily updates are available in the main thread here. [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2[/url]

    Alternatively, here are the latest 6-10 and 8-14 charts issued yesterday.
    [attachment=215982:500 HPA 10 June.gif] [attachment=215983:500 HPA 10 June -10 day.gif]

    [b]GFS[/b]

    There are 3 days worth of runs covering the start of the festival. In have saved more charts, but to (or try to) keep the blog manageable, I have only shown the charts for the 25th June.

    Issued 9th June (06Hz to left, 12Hz to right)
    Both show an unsettled and wet to the festival.
    [attachment=215987:GFS 9 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=215988:GFS 9 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]

    Issued 10th June (06Hz to left, 12Hz to right)
    The 06Hz run shows an unsettled start to the festival, the 12Hz run shows the High Pressure hanging on.
    [attachment=215986:GFS 10 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=215985:GFS 10 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]

    Issued 11th June (06Hz to left, 12Hz to right)
    [attachment=215984:GFS 11 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=215989:GFS 11 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG]
    Both show an unsettled and wet to the festival.

    Of the 6 runs on the 06Hz and 12Hz runs, 5 are going for the unsettled weather and only 1 for the High Pressure hanging on.

    So even though other factors are more positive in terms of the High Pressure hanging on, this the main factor for me going for the slightly negative side of neutral.

    [b]GFS Ensembles [/b]

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    Peaking at around 1030mb over coming days, before dropping back to around 1020mb by the 21st, and edging below this thereafter,

    [attachment=215995:Pressure GIF.gif]

    [b]Rainfall [/b]

    Recent runs have shown an increase in expected rainfall over the period before and during the festival.

    [attachment=215996:Rainfall GIF.gif]

    [b]Summary [/b]

    In Summary, a pattern has started to emerge, pressure is now rising over the UK in general, and also over Glastonbury and we are using Somerset ensembles. These indicate pressure peaking at around 1030mb around the 12th June. There is a slow decline and the pressure falls on average to around 1020mb by the 21st June. Thereafter the average drops below 1020mb before and during the festival, indicated an increased risk of wet and unsettled conditions at least to start the festival. Many of the control GFS runs have been outliers, and perhaps these make the starting conditions for the festival worse than they actuality look at the moment.

    On the balance of probability at this stage, there remains a possibility of the more settled conditions holding on to start the festival, but is more likely that unsettled conditions will prevail.

    As such my forecast today is Neutral / Slightly Negative.

    Or on the Dust bowl / Mud bath Rating ( with 0 = Dust bowl and 10 = Mud bath) a 5.5

    [attachment=215998:Glastonbury Rollercoaster Trendline.JPG]
  20. J10
    This is the 5th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],

    [b]Previous Blogs Summaries[/b]
    No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Positive
    No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Positive
    No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral
    No 4 Issued 1 June - Neutral/Slightly Negative

    At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

    [b]1. CFS Monthly Averages
    2. CFS Raw Daily Runs
    3. CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily
    4. NOAA 500Mb Upper Charts[/b]

    The NOAA upper charts are new for this week, as we move away from the longer range forecast.

    Future Blogs will move away from CFS Monthly Averages and onto GFS and NOAA only.

    [b]1. CFS Monthly Averages[/b]

    [b]June[/b] [From Net Weather Extra]

    [attachment=215545:June Rainfall - GIF.gif] [attachment=215546:June Temps - GIF.gif] [attachment=215544:June Pressure - GIF.gif]
    For June, I have created a GIF of all charts to date, click to animate. In each case, each chart shows the weekly evolution of the forecast from early May to the latest update on the 7 June.

    Regular Weekly Updates - [attachment=215538:Rainfall June 7 June.png] [attachment=215537:Temps June 7 June.png] [attachment=215536:Pressure June 7 June.png]
    Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (120-140%), but around/ below average for the South West so better than last week.
    Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, very similar to last week.
    Pressure is forecast to be be above average, towards the north, but below average towards the south west, so continuing the worsening theme.

    Still a bit mixed.

    [b]July[/b]

    Regular Weekly Updates - [attachment=215534:Rainfall July 7 July.png] [attachment=215533:Temps July 7 June.png] [attachment=215535:Pressure July 7 June.png]

    Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (180%), and higher than average over most of Southern UK.
    Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, but the anomalies less than forecast last week.
    Pressure is forecast to be marginally above average, very similar to last week.

    In summary, looking wetter than last week.

    [b]2. CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b][From Net Weather Extra][code=auto:0] CFS RunDate obtain Rating Pressure Shorthand - HP High pressure, LP = Low Pressure Winds Rain Temps 31 May 00HZ 01-Jun 7.5 HP Building From SW, LP largely kept away to North West W/NW Odd shower possible, but mostly missing SW Light Orange to Orange 1 June 00HZ 02-Jun 3.0 LP to NE to start, HP ridges in, then LP comes back from NW Late weekend NW Moderate rain except Saturday Dark Green (Sunday) / to Light Orange 2 June 00HZ 03-Jun 9.0 HP bang on top of the UK for Wed-Sat, only slowly edging away to East Sunday E Maybe odd light shower Light Orange 3 June 00HZ 04-Jun 3.0 Ridging HP to start, then zonal with West winds and a flat fast moving jet W Bands of rain moving west across UK, some heavy Yellow / Light Orange 4 June 00HZ 05-Jun 9.0 HP to start, but LP edging up from South E Odd Shower Wed, otherwise dry Light Orange to Deep Orange 5 June 00HZ 06-Jun 4.5 HP Wednesday, but low pressure from north and west taking over W Bands of rain Thur, Fri and Sun (hvy Fri/Sun) Yellow / Light Orange6 6 June 00HZ 07-Jun 4.0 LP centred Northern UK, unsettled with West to South West Winds W/SW Rain / Showers all days, some heavy Dark Green to Light Orange[/code]
    An average score of 5.71 (entirely subjective), but what is very noticeable is that the forecasts are either really good (3) or really bad, no in betweens which is often the case.

    3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b] (Source [url="http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php"]http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php[/url] )

    [b]July[/b] (June not available)[code=auto:0] Date 850Hpa Temp 2m (G) z500 (G) PRMSL (G) Rainfall 01-Jul +1c to +2c +3c to +4c +6 to +7 +4 to +5 Blue S/SW/SE Eng, Light Red W Midlands / Wales 02-Jul +1c to +2c +2c to +3c +7 to +8 +4 to +5 Blue Southern UK, White Midlands 03-Jul -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -3 to -2 -3 to -2 Light Blue SE, Red, Midlands/SE 04-Jul +1c to +2c +2c to +3c +6 to +7 +2 to +3 Blue SW, Red Midlands/ Wales 05-Jul -1c to 0c +1c to +2c -2 to -1 0 to +1 Blue S England, Red Midlands 06-Jul 0c to +1c +2c to +3c +7 to +8 +3 to +4 Deep Blue S England, White Light Red Midlands 07-Jul 0c to +1c +1c to +2c +2 to +3 +1 to +2 Blue S England, Red Midlands [/code]
    In terms of upper air Temps 5 are marginally above average, 2 are below average, all 2m temps are slightly above average.
    In terms of pressure (at both z500 and at Sea Level) 5 are above average, and 2 below average.
    In terms of rainfall, 3 are positive, is negative, 3 are mixed
    [b]4. NOAA[/b]
    I have attached a weekly GIF for both the 6-10 trend and the 8-14 trend, in both cases, if you click the chart, you will be able to animate.in each case, the charts show the daily evolution from the 1st June to the 7th June.

    [attachment=215548:NOAA 500mb Heights 6-10 day (1st - 7th June).gif]
    For the 6-10 days, a clear trend of the upper trough moving away, and upper ridges closer to the UK.
    [attachment=215547:NOAA 500mb Heights 8-14 day (1st - 7th June).gif]
    For the 8-14 days, The same initial trend of the upper trough moving away, but no dominant pattern emerging.

    This suggests to me more settled weather next week, but as we move closer to Glastonbury, 17 days away, so only just out of range of these forecasts, perhaps not so settled once again.

    Daily updates on this are published on the main forum here -> [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2[/url]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    A lot of data this week, and no clear conclusions, however the monthly runs for June suggest, a rather unsettled outlook. The daily CFS runs are very mixed, some very good weather foretasted and some very wet weather foretasted. It does seem that next week sees the weather improve and things settling down before next weekend but there are indications after that of things going downhill once again.

    So my latest conclusion is slightly negative for the Glastonbury festival.

    For more info including the latest spreadsheet containing the CFS Raw Runs data and the CFS from Meteociel, please visit the discussion thread on the main forum. [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2[/url]
  21. J10
    This is the 4th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],

    [b]Previous Blogs Summaries [/b]
    No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Postive
    No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Postive
    No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral

    At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

    1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
    2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
    3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]

    By next week, we will be starting to get into Long Range for the festival, and this will be reflected in the forecast.

    So moving on to the detail.
    1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]

    [attachment=214568:Pressure June 31 May.png] [attachment=214566:Temps June 31 May.png] [attachment=214571:Rainfall June 31 May.png]

    Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (120-150%) , and also above average in Southern England (100-120%), and worse than last weeks forecast.
    Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, the positive anomaly slightly less generally than last week.
    Pressure is forecast to be higher than average in Northern UK, and less than average in southern areas, in both cases worse than last week.

    All in all, uniformly worse forecast compared to last week, however this is also picking up that short term models are suggesting a wet and unsettled start to June, so no massive surprise.

    [attachment=214569:Pressure July 31 May.png] [attachment=214567:Temps July 31 May.png] [attachment=214570:Rainfall July 31 May.png]

    Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (160%), and below average in Southern areas (80%), however the area of below average rainfall is further north than last week and covers a great areas.
    Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, almost identical compared to last week.
    Pressure is forecast to be marginally above average, which is slightly worse compared to last week.
    In summary, looking slightly drier than last week, but with slightly lower pressure.

    [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b][code=auto:0] CFS RunDate obtain Rating Pressure [Shorthand - HP High pressure, LP = Low Pressure] Winds Rain Temps 24 May 00HZ 25-May 8.0 LP over west to start, High Pressure building in from SW, settled thereafter NW Mostly Dry, only odd slight shower Wed Light Orange to Orange 25 May 00HZ 26-May 9.0 HP over the UK for the festival period. NE Mostly Dry, perhaps odd chance of shower Light Orange 26 May 00HZ 27-May 4.0 LP mostly in control, HP just away to south SW to NW Wet Wed, Thurs and Sunday, Dry Other days Yellow / Light Orange 27 May 00HZ 28-May 7.5 HP to start, LP for a time from NW, then HP ridges for weekend SW Dry/Light showers Wed-Fri+Sun, frontal rain sat Light Orange to Orange 28 May 00HZ 29-May 6.0 Battle between LP to North and ridging HP to south HP wins in end SW Some rain, but southern areas miss worst of it Yellow / Light Orange 29 May 00HZ 30-May 5.5 Battle between LP to North and ridging HP to south, LP generally on top SW Rain periods at times, some heavy, some dry days Yellow / Light Orange 30 May 00HZ 31-May 8.0 HP building from SW, LP to North not too far away mid festival NW Odd Shower but mostly Dry Yellow / Orange (cooling down) [/code]
    An average score of 6.85 (entirely subjective), but more forecasts going for a mostly dry festival 3, than a washout 1, with 3 somewhere in between, going on past records this is pretty good.

    3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b] (Source [url="http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php"]http://www.meteociel...fsme_cartes.php[/url] )

    [b]Overall Summary[/b]

    [b]June[/b][code=auto:0] Date 850Hpa Temp 2m (G) z500 (G) PRMSL (G) Rainfall 25-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -1 to 0 0 to +1 Blue S England, Red Midland/Wales 26-May 1c to +2c +2c to +3c +1 to +2 -1 to 0 Blue S England, Light Red Midlands 27-May 1c to +2c +2c to +3c +4 to +5 +1 to +2 Blue all England/Wales 28-May -2c to -1c 0c -8 to -7 -5 to -4 Red all UK 29-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -3 to -2 -4 to -3 White / Red Southern UK 30-May 1c to +2c +1c to +2c +1 to +2 -1 to 0 Blue SW / S Cent S, Light Red Midlands 31-May +2c +2c to +3c +3 to +4 -1 Red Midlands, light Red Southern England[/code]
    In terms of upper air Temps 6 are marginally above average, 1 is below average, all 2m temps are slightly above average.
    In terms of pressure (at z500) 4 are above average, and 3 below average, and at Sea Level (PRMSL) 2 are above average and 5 below average
    In terms of rainfall, 2 are positive, 3 are negative, 2 are mixed

    The averages in terms of pressure are worse than last week, but the temps are slightly better.

    Overall a further slight worsening in the forecast compared to last week.

    [b]July[/b][code=auto:0] Date 850Hpa Temp 2m (G) z500 (G) PRMSL (G) Rainfall 25-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c 0 to +1 0 to +1 Blue SW Eng, Red SE Eng/Midlands 26-May -1c to 0c +2c to +3c -2 to -1 -1 to 0 Blue S Eng, Red Midlands 27-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c 0 to +1 -2 to -1 Blue S Eng, Red Midlands 28-May -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -1 to 0 +1 to +2 Blue S Eng, Light Red Midlands 29-May -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -5 to -4 -4 to -3 Mixed S Eng, Red Midlands 30-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -1 to 0 -1 to 0 Blue S Eng, Red Midlands 31-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c +4 to +5 3 Blue S Eng, Light Red Midlands [/code]
    In terms of upper air Temps 4 are marginally above average, 3 are below average, all 2m temps are slightly above average.
    In terms of pressure (at z500) 3 are above average, and 4 below average, and at Sea Level (PRMSL) 3 are above average and 4 below average
    In terms of rainfall, 2 are positive, 2 are negative, 3 are mixed

    The averages in terms of pressure and temps are worse than last week. Overall a further slight worsening in the forecast compared to last week.

    All details are on a spreadsheet in the main discussion thread. [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/[/url]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    A contrast in the forecast, the monthly forecast for June have worsened compared to last week, however this is to be expected given the current forecast for the start of June now which are in the reliable time frame. The long range forecast from Raw CFS are quite good for late June, so a contradiction.

    Does a bad start to June make a bad end to June more likely, given the worsening forecasts for June overall, I am suggesting a slightly negative trend, but with the previso that this is partly explained by the bad start to June.

    So this weeks forecast is Neutral to Slightly Negative.
  22. J10
    This is the 3rd blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June], the first 2 blogs were mostly [size=4][font=arial]positive.[/font][/size]

    At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

    1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
    2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
    3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]

    So moving on to the detail.
    1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]

    Using the raw charts from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Long Range Forecast Maps.

    [b]June[/b]

    [attachment=214025:Pressure June 24 May.png] [attachment=214026:Temps June 24 May.png] [attachment=214029:Rainfall June 24 May.png]

    Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands, and below average in Southern areas, but better than last week in both cases.
    Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, however generally forecast to be 1c colder than last week.
    Pressure is forecast to be higher than average but not by as much in southern areas compared to last week.

    All in all decent but not quite as positive as last week.

    [b]July[/b]

    [attachment=214024:Pressure July 24 May.png] [attachment=214027:Temps July 24 May.png] [attachment=214028:Rainfall July 24 May.png]

    Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (160%), and below average in Southern areas (80%), around the same as last week.
    Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, however generally forecast to be 1c warmer than last week.
    Pressure is forecast to be higher to the west of the UK this week, and also above average over most of the UK.
    In summary, mostly decent conditions and pressure slightly higher to the south and west compared to last week, so slightly better for Glastonbury.

    [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b][code=auto:0] CFS Run Obtain Rating Pressure [Shorthand - HP High pressure, LP = Low Pressure] Winds Rain Temps 17 May 00HZ 18-May 7.5 Unsettled Westerly flow, HP into too far from south W/SW Showers early and late, more general rain Fri into Sat Light Orange to Deep Orange 18 May 00HZ 19-May 8.5 HP dominates to start, in control throughout festival E/SE Light showers at worst Orange (mostly) / Light Orange 19 May 00HZ 20-May 5.5 Battle LP to New and Ridging HP From South West SW Rain to Friday, drier for weekend Light Orange to Orange 20 May 00HZ 21-May 5.0 Low Pressure to N/W of UK, temporary HP ridging South Thurs / Fri SW Some rain at times, from fronts moving NE Light Orange 21 May 00HZ 22-May 5.0 HP over UK to start, edging North to be replaced by LP from South E to SW Dry then some rain to follow Orange to Deep Orange 22 May 00HZ 23-May 5.0 LP to NW to start, HP slowly ridging from SW by weekend SW Rain wed, Thurs - Sat only light shows, mod rain Sunday Light Orange 23 May 00HZ 24-May 3.5 LP to N to start, pressure slowly building with slack W winds West Rain most day, Drier Sunday Yellow / Light Orange [/code]
    [b][b]A full week of these and as usual, quite a variety of outcomes, some rather mixed, and generally not as promising as last week. [/b][/b]

    3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b] (Source [url="http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php"]http://www.meteociel...fsme_cartes.php[/url] )

    [b]Overall Summary[/b]

    [b]June[/b][code=auto:0] Date 850Hpa Temp 2m z500 PRMSL Rainfall 18-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c +8 to +9 +5 to +6 Blue all Southern UK inc Midlands 19-May -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -1 to 0 0 to +1 Red Central Southern England 20-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -1 to 0 -3 to -2 Blue S UK, White Light Red Midlands 21-May 1c to +2c +1c to +2c +6 to +7 +3 to +4 Blue All UK 22-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c 0 to +1 +1 White / Light Red Southern UK 23-May -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -4 to -3 -3 to -2 White / Light Red Southern UK 24-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -1 to 0 -1 to 0 Blue S End, Red Midlands/Wales[/code]
    In terms of upper air, 5 are marginally above average, 2 a re below average, all 2m temps are slightly above average. In terms of pressure (at z500) 4 are above average, and 3 below average, and at Sea Level (PRMSL) 3 are below average and 4 below average, in terms of rainfall, ,3 generally positive, 4 slightly negative. All in all very mixed. Last week saw Pressure and temps indications being almost universally positive so not as good this week.

    [b]July[/b][code=auto:0] Date 850Hpa Temp 2m z500 PRMSL Rainfall 18-May +2c to +3c +3c to +4c +6 to +7 +1 to +2 Blue S Eng, Red Midlands/Wales 19-May +2c to +3c +3c to +4c +7 +2 to +3 Red Midlands, mixed Southern England 20-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -1 to 0 -1 to 0 Red all Southern UK 21-May -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -4 to -3 -3 to -2 Red all Southern UK 22-May -1c to 0c +1c to +2c 0 to +1 0 Red / Deep Red Southern UK 23-May 0c 0c to +1c -1 to 0 -1 to 0 White SW, Red Rest southern UK 24-May 0c +1c to +2c +3 to +4 +1 to +2 Blue SW Eng, Red SE Eng/Midlands [/code]
    In terms of upper air, 3 are marginally above average, 2 are below average, and 2 neutral. All 2m temps are slightly above average. In terms of pressure (at z500) 4 are above average, and 3 below average, and at Sea Level (PRMSL) 3 are below average and 3 below average and one neutral. In terms of rainfall, 1 generally positive, 6 slightly negative. All in all very mixed.

    This shows an improvement over last week in terms of 850Hpa air temps, while 2m Temps and Sea Level Pressure are about the same, however z500 Pressures are worse, as these wee very positive last week, while the Rainfall forecast is not as good as last week.

    All in all, quite a neutral picture, and generally not as good as last week.

    Link to Discussion Thread [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973"]http://forum.netweat...2014/?p=2966973[/url]

    I will put the monthly stats for the UK as a whole on the main thread, as well as the main discussion thread.

    [b]Overall[/b]

    After two quite promising weeks, this weeks is not as good, however still a neutral forecast rather than a positive one.
  23. J10
    This is the second blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June], the first blog was mostly [size=4][font=arial]positive.[/font][/size]

    At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

    1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
    2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
    3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]

    So moving on to the detail.
    1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]

    Using the charts kindly supplied from Paul

    [attachment=213364:Temps 18 May.JPG] [attachment=213365:Precip 18 May.JPG]

    A clear theme of above average temps, with rainfall close to below average, which is not too bad, this also agrees with the raw monthly charts below.

    Using the raw charts from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Long Range Forecast Maps.

    [b]June[/b]

    [attachment=213282:Pressure June 17 May.png] [attachment=213283:Temps June 17 May.png] [attachment=213284:Rainfall June 17 May.png]

    The above shows temps above average for the UK, with pressure also above average for the UK, in both cases, the anomalies are bigger for more northern areas. Rainfall is lower than average over Southern England and only slightly above average for the Midlands, so all in all, pretty good charts this week.

    [b]July[/b]
    [attachment=213279:Temps July 17 May.png] [attachment=213280:Rainfall July 17 May b.png] [attachment=213281:Rainfall July 17 May.png]
    July continues the warm theme, pressure is just above average, but below average to the South west, and rainfall is well above average over the Midlands, indicating more general higher rainfall for southern areas.

    In summary, mostly decent conditions but with a risk of Low Pressure edging in from the west / South West, not brilliant for Glastonbury.

    [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]

    [b]A full week of these and as usual, quite a variety of outcomes.[/b][code=auto:0] R = Rating out of 10 Run Date R Pressure Winds Rainfall Temps 10 May 00HZ 5 Unsettled mobile to start then LP to NW West Rain / Heavy showers most days Light Orange to Orange 11 May 00HZ 6 Battle between HP to SE and LP to N/W, LP winning for Thurs-Sat SW Showers/Rain at times Yellow to Orange 12 May 00HZ 7.5 Battle Low to NW, High to SW, HP win mainly for southern areas SW Showers at times Light Orange to Deep Orange 13 May 00HZ 6.5 High Pressure ridging to start, LP building from North after NW Showers Wed-Fri, Dry Sat, Rain Sun Light Orange to Orange 14 May 00HZ 6.5 LP to start, but HP builds in from west by weekend SW to NW Wet Wed, showery, then dry over weekend Light Orange 15 May 00HZ 3 LP over UK for festival (moving from SW to NE) SW to NW Wet Wed-Fri, showery weekend Yellow to Light Orange 16 May 00HZ 7.5 LP to start, but HP ridges in from Thursday from SW SW to SE Rain Wed-Thu then progressively drier Light Orange to Orange[/code]
    [size=4][font=arial]The Majority of these are quite decent, with only the run on the 15th looking like a washout.[/font][/size]


    3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b] (Source [url="http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php"]http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php[/url] )

    I have reduced the info from last weeks run, as there was too much info, and concentrated on the figures for Glastonbury.[code=auto:0] JUNE 850Hpa z500 PRMSL Temps 2m Rainfall 11-May 0c -2 to -1 -1 0c to +1c Blue SW / Red Rest Southern UK 12-May 0c to 1c +1 to +2 +1 to +2 +1c to +2c Blue most of UK, Light Red Midlands 13-May 0c to 2c +4 to +5 +1 to +2 +2c to +3c Blue S UK, White Midlands 14-May 1c to 2c +6 to +7 +1 to +2 +2c to +3c Blue S UK, White /light red Midlands 15-May 0c to 2c +1 to +2 0 to +1 +1c to +2c Blue S UK, White Midlands 16-May 0c to 2c 0 to +1 0 to +1 +1c to +2c Deep Blue S UK, White / Light Red Midlands 17 May 0c to 1c 0 to +1 0 to +1 +1c to +2c Blue S UK, White Light Red Midlands [/code]
    [font=arial][size=4]In Summary, warmer than average, Pressure generally above average, rainfall around/below average, all in all pretty positive outcomes. [/size][/font][code=auto:0] JULY 850Hpa z500 PRMS Temps 2m Rainfall 11-May +1c +4 to +5 +3 to +4 +2c to +3c Dark Blue S Eng, light Red Midlands 12-May +3c +4 to +5 -2 to -1 +4c to +5c Light Blue SW, Deep Red Midlands 13-May +1c to +2c 0 to +1 -2 to -1 +2c to +3c Red S UK 14-May -1c to 0c -4 to -3 -3 to -2 +1c Red / Deep Red S UK 15-May 0c +3 to +4 1 +1c to +2c Blue S UK, White /light red Midlands 16-May -1c to -2c +3 to +4 +4 to +5 1c Blue S UK, White /light red Midlands 17-May -1c to -2c +3 to +4 +4 to +5 0c to +2c Blue S UK, White /light red Midlands[/code]
    [font=arial][size=4]In Summary, warmer than average, However pressure below averages, rainfall around/above average, all in all not as positive as the June forecast.[/size][/font]

    [b]Overall Summary[/b]

    The theme for Glastonbury is quite positive, but still of course a long way off.

    Link to Discussion Thread [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973"]http://forum.netweat...2014/?p=2966973[/url]
  24. J10
    This is the first blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June]

    At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

    1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
    2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
    3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
    4. [b]MJO Index[/b]

    So moving on to the detail.
    1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]

    These are produced weekly and this week Paul has very kindly supplied me with a higher resolution version of the forecast.
    [attachment=212739:June Rainfall May 11.JPG] [attachment=212740:June Temps 11 May.JPG]

    This indicates that rainfall in June will be lower than average for Glastonbury with temps above average. Good News indeed, however this is still a good way out.

    However I will still show last week’s version for comparison and trend analysis. These charts are available from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Long Range Forecast Maps.

    [b]June[/b] [attachment=212728:Temps June 10 May.png] [attachment=212729:Rainfall June 10 May.png]

    The above shows the warmer than expected weather for the UK, and drier weather compared to normal, one big disadvantage of CFS is that rainfall tends to be shown over the Midlands, so it always overdoes rainfall in this area.
    [b]July[/b] [attachment=212726:Temps July 10 May.png] [attachment=212727:Rainfall July 10 May.png]

    July continues the warm theme, but shows the risk of slightly wetter weather than normal. Unfortunately this is a problem with the Pressure charts this week, however this should be corrected by next week.

    2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]

    CFS does a run for months ahead, and I have detailed the forecast for the Glastonbury festival from each daily run. These charts are available from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Daily Long Range Charts [Raw CFS]

    [attachment=212733:CFS Daily.JPG]

    Example Run here - [attachment=212742:Example Run Pressure.png] [attachment=212743:Example Run Rainfall.png] [attachment=212744:Example Run Temps.png][code=auto:0] CFS Run Date obtained Pressure [Shorthand - HP High pressure, LP = Low Pressure] Winds Rain Temps 01 May 00Hz 06-May HP generally, LP edging up from S for weekend Dry to start, Showers over weekend Light Orange to Orange 07-May No Forecast Available 02 May 00HZ 08-May Rather unsettled throughout, but no massive LP NW Rain or Showers most days Yellow / Light Orange 08 May 00HZ 09-May HP before festival and always close to South West NW Odd showers, mostly dry for SW Light Orange to Orange 09 May 00HZ 10-May HP Start and end of Festival, LP attempts to push in midway from NW SW Light Showers at times Light Orange to Orange Where winds is the main wind direction for the duration of the festival. [/code]
    From history these tend to be rather pessimistic, so the rather mixed picture is not too bad at the moment.

    3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]

    [attachment=212734:CFS Monthly From Meteociel.JPG]

    [url="http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php"]http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php[/url]

    Where z500 and PRMSL relates to Pressure, and 850Hpa and Temps 2m relates to Temps at different levels of the atmosphere.[code=auto:0] For June Run 850Hpa z500 (UK) z500 (G) PRMSL (UK) PRMSL (G) Temps 2m (UK) Temps 2m (G) Rainfall(Blue < average, Red > average) 06-May 0c to +2c -4 (S) to +6 (N) -2 to 0 -4 (S) to 0 (N) -2 to -4 +0c (SE) to 6c (N) 0c to +2c Red / White all S uk 07-May +2 (SW) to +6 (NE) +4 to +5 0 (SW) to +2 (NE) +1 +2c (S) to +4c (N) +2c to +3c Mix, White locally 08-May -2c to 0c 0 (S) to +6 (N) +1 to +2 +2 (S) to +6 (N) +3 to +4 +0c (S) to +2c (N) +1c to +2c Blue most of UK, Light Red Far SW 09-May 0c to +4c +2 (W) to +4 (E) +3 -2 (NW) to 0 (S/SE) 0 +2c (S) to +4c (N) +2c to +3c Blue most of UK, Light Red Midlands 10-May 0c -2 (SW) to 0 (Else) -1 to 0 -2 (SW) to 0 (Else) 0 +0c (S) to +2c (N) 0c to +1c Blue / White all Southern UK [/code][code=auto:0] For July Run 850Hpa z500 (UK) z500 (G) PRMSL (UK) PRMSL (G) Temps 2m (UK) Temps 2m (G) Rainfall(Blue < average, Red > average) 06-May 0c to +2c +2 (W) to +4 (E) +2 to +4 +2 (S) to 0 (N) +2 0c (SE) to 6c (N) 0c to +2c Red Midlands, Blue other S areas 07-May 0c to +1c 0 to +2 (SE) +1 to +2 +0 (S) to +2 (N) +1 1c (SE) to 3c (N) +2c to +3c Red / Deep Red 08-May 0c to +1c +2 (SE) to +6 (NW) +2 to +3 +2 (SE) to +6 (NW) +2 to +4c 1c (SE) to 4c (N) +2c to +3c Blue most of UK, Light Red Midlands 09-May +1c to +2c +1 (S) to +8 (N) +1 to +2 +0 (S) to +2 (N) 0c 1c (SE) to 6c (N) +2c to +3c Light Blue SW, Deep Red Midlands 10-May +1c to +2c 0 to +2 0 to +1 -2 (N) to +0 (S) -1c to 0c 1c (SE) to 6c (N) 0c to +1c Blue S Eng, Red Midlands [/code]
    In summary most forecasts are going for a warm festival, pressure is a bit more variable but on average, this is slightly higher than average, while rainfall is also mixed, perhaps slightly higher than average.

    4. [b]MJO Index[/b]
    I am looking to incorporate this into future forecasts, however it is still a bit early to do so, but the initial analysis has been included on the main Glastonbury discussion thread.

    [b]Summary[/b]
    In summary a lot of data, early indications are rather positive for Glastonbury, hopefully Next week’s update will be just as promising, please get involved on the dedicated forum thread, and please also send comments about the forecasts and any potential tweaks for future versions.

    Link to Discussion Thread [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973[/url]
  25. J10
    This is the final forecast for Glastonbury 2013, so thanks for reading and for your comments.

    Unfortunately the rain yesterday totalled 10mm and this has caused some mud on site, this was forecast but only very recently, so earlier forecasts in the week did not pick this up. According to site reports, the wet ground and dampness is starting to dry out and today’s brightness and warmth should help matters. There is a front currently to the North West which may give a little bit more rain this evening.

    [b]Saturday 29 June[/b]
    Winds are likely to be from a West North West direction with pressure around 1025mb, a bright start to the day is expected with some sunny intervals. A warm front is set to push through during the afternoon and although it should stay dry, more cloud is expected during the late afternoon and evening, this is a bit of a change from previous forecasts. Big difference in the models for max temps again, GFS says 21-22c, the Met Office say 18-19c

    Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=176120:UKM 28a 24.gif] [attachment=176114:ECM 28a 24.gif] [attachment=176118:GFS 28 06 1.png]

    [b]Sunday 30 June[/b]
    The High Pressure edge back south again over the weekend with pressure around 1020mb with winds from a general westerly direction. Daytime Sunday looks dry in between the fronts which pushes passed through during Saturday and the one passing through during the early hours of Monday morning. In general terms the forecast of yesterday remains true, rather cloudy and damp to start but more in the way of brightness/sunshine in the afternoon with Temps around 19-22c. However a bit more cloud into the late evening, with the chance of some patchy rain in early hours of Monday morning.

    Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
    [attachment=176115:UKM 28a 36.gif][attachment=176119:UKM 28a 48.gif] [attachment=176117:GFS 28 06 2.JPG] [attachment=176116:GFS 28 06 3.JPG] [attachment=176121:ECM 28a 48.gif]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    In general terms not a bad weekend, not as good as was thought to be the case at the start of the week, largely due to the High Pressure never really getting in control as much as was suggested/hoped, this also was one of the major reasons yesterday’s low pushed South East rather than East. For the most part looking dry and warm with some sunshine at times over the weekend, which should help dry the site out, hopefully everyone has a great festival.
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