Remember to keep in touch with the latest updates via the Net Weather twitter account which will publish a link to all new blog posts. This is the penultimate forecast for the festival, with the final one tomorrow.
[b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
The main rain band has just been passed through Glastonbury at time of writing (5.10pm)
[attachment=176042:Glastonbury Radar 3.JPG]
Further patchy rain is expected for the next few hours, with some heavier bit mixed in. This is likely to dampen things down somewhat and may lead to some mud in places, but given the dry ground conditions things should dry up over the weekend. Keep in touch with the latest conditions by looking at the Netweather free radar below.
Link to free Net Weather radar [url="http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=radarv6;sess=15e6b621b68dfe2a3be341513d9ffd35"]http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=radarv6;sess=15e6b621b68dfe2a3be341513d9ffd35[/url]
[b]Friday 28 June [/b]
The High Pressure is set to be centred to the South West of the UK with winds from a North Westerly direction, and for pressure to be around 1022mb for South Western England, so very similar to what was suggested yesterday. Friday is expected to start rather damp and cloudy with perhaps a little bit of drizzle. The afternoon sees a drying and brightening, with the chance of decent bright/sunny spells into the evening. Big difference in the models for max temps, GFS says 22-23c, the Met Office says 17-18c
Morning Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=176026:UKM 27a 24.gif] [attachment=176029:ECM 27a 24.gif] [attachment=176033:GFS 27 06 1.JPG]
Afternoon Runs (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=176035:GFS 27 12 1.JPG]
[b]Saturday 29 June[/b]
The High Pressure is set to move closer to the UK on Saturday, with pressure around 1026mb, as a result the fronts are further north than over the past few days, with winds from a West to North West direction.
The air source is Tropical Maritime, so very mild but also damp. As a result a rather damp but warm start to the day, with a lot of cloud, possibly low cloud, during the day this is set to lift, with once again the chance of brighter/sunnier weather as we move into the afternoon/evening. Big difference in the models for max temps again, GFS says 21-22c, the Met Office say 18-19c
[b]Sunday 29 June[/b]
The High Pressure set to edge back south again with pressure around 1020-1025mb with winds from a general westerly direction. Fronts are set to give Sunday a miss. Sunday looks set to follow the pattern of Friday and Saturday, rather cloudy and damp to start but more in the way of brightness/sunshine in the afternoon with Temps around 20-23c.
[b]Overall [/b]
The total rainfall chart 00Hz and 12Hz around 4-6mm over the course of the festival, the vast majority of this on Thursday. The ensembles largely in line with the op run.
[attachment=176030:Rmgfs96sum 27 1.gif] [attachment=176034:Rmgfs96sum 27 0.gif] [attachment=176039:GEFS 27a 3.png]
The total rainfall chart shows that after today's rain, the rest of the festival is looking dry.
The ensembles shows the GFS op run is in line with the ensembles for the rest of the festival period.
[attachment=176038:GEFS 27a 2.png]
[b]Summary[/b]
For the rest of the festival, looking damp and cloudy in the morning, but an improving picture during the afternoon and evening, with more in the way of brighter/ sunnier spells and quite warm into each afternoon.
Any mud caused by today's rain is set to be drier out quite quickly over the rest of the festival.
Remember to keep in touch with the latest updates via the Net Weather twitter account which will publish a link to all new blog posts. I will do forecasts though tomorrow, and Friday for the remaining days of the festival.
Today was dry as most models expected, with some sunny spells, more especially later in the day.
[b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
A bright start is expected although in advance of a warm front from the west it is set to turn cloudy late morning or early afternoon. The warm front will initially give some moderate to heavy rain for Northern England and Scotland, during the afternoon and evening, it will push South Eastwards through including and Wales and through Glastonbury, and there are variations in the rainfall expected.
NAE suggests between 6-12mm.
[attachment=175957:13062806_2_2606.gif] [attachment=175958:13062806_2_2612.gif]
While NMM suggests between 4-8mm.
[attachment=175959:NMM Total Rainfall.JPG]
GFS
Max Temps hitting 17c early afternoon, and dropping back as the cloud and rain pushes through.
[b]Friday 28 June[/b]
The High Pressure is set to be centred to the South West of the UK with winds from a North Westerly direction, and for pressure to be closer to 1022mb, which contiunues the downward path.
Friday is expected to start rather damp and cloudy after any overnight rain clears away. While further fronts are set to push across the UK today, they are now expected to stay on a more northerly path, and miss Glastonbury. However it is still looking a rather cloudy day, and the odd spot of drizzle is possible, with the best of any brightness into the late afternoon/early evening.
Big difference in the models for max temps, GFS says 21-23c, Meto say 17-18c, the risk of any further ran into Saturday has now been lessened by the models.
[attachment=175941:UKNM 26b 48.gif] [attachment=175962:ECM 26b 48.gif] [attachment=175928:GFS 26 12 2.JPG]
[b]Saturday 29 June[/b]
Again the High Pressure is set to be centred to the South West of the UK with winds from a North Westerly direction, pressure is set to be around 1025mb, although a degree in variation in this between the models, the air source is Tropical Maritime, so it is quite mild and rather damp, and this leads to quite warm and possibly muggy weather, but this often brings a good deal of cloud.
At this stage Saturday looks dry, although quite a lot of cloud is expected in the morning, more in the way of brightness and possibly sunny intervals, expected later in the day, Max temps 20-22c.
[b]Sunday 29 June[/b]
Still some uncertainty but the High Pressure is set to build closer to the UK so although the pressure is not much higher, still around 1023-1025mb, the centre of it bring that bit further north means fronts are likely to take more a northerly route and as such Sunday at this stage, looks mostly dry and settled. So after a rather cloudy start to the day, more in the way of afternoon and evening sunshine or at least brighter spells. So some sunny intervals/spells are possible into the afternoon, with Temps around 20-23c.
[b]Overall [/b]
The total rainfall chart 00Hz and 12Hz around 4-6mm over the course of the festival, the vast majority of this on Thursday. The ensembles largely in line with the op run.
The ensembles go for the pressure to start at 1030mb, drop off quickly Thursday and Friday, before increasing the pressure into the weekend.
[attachment=175931:GEFS 26a 3.png][attachment=175963:GEFS 26b 4.png]
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 6/10 (7/10) Thursday now shows some moderate rain, however apart from this mostly dry.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 6.5/10 (7/10) Apart from some brief dampness early Friday, things should dry up quickly over the weekend.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (7/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Some rain Thursday, otherwise Dry and warm with decent sunny spells over the weekend, especially later in the days
Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
I know some of you will be off to the festival for the next day or so, so have a good one and remember to keep in touch via the Net Weather twitter account which will publish a link to all new blog posts. For obvious reasons this will be the last full forecast for Glastonbury, I will do forecasts though tomorrow, Thursday and Friday for the remaining days of the festivals, while the pattern for the festival is set, detail is still elusive.
[b]Wednesday 26 June [/b]
High Pressure has ridged over the UK, with NW winds expected over Glastonbury, pressure is expected to be around 1032mb, A sunny start is expcted for Glastonbury tomorrow, however more cloud is expected to bubble up for the afternoon, although some sunny intervals remain likely. The odd shower is still just about possible late into the afternoon according to GFS. Max temps are expected to be in the range 19-21c, perhaps just about hitting 21-22c.
Chart is GFS 12Hz, given the lack of variation in the inter runs charts, this is indicative.
[attachment=175842:GFS 25 12 1.JPG]
The NMM chart shows the expected rainfall, very little and this is probably worst case scenario, every chance it will stay day tomorrow.
[attachment=175843:NMM 24hr.JPG]
[b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
In terms of synoptic patterns, not much has changed in recent days. High Pressure continues to edge eastwards containing an embedded warm weather front, with winds West to NW over Glastonbury, pressure again expected to be around 1028-1030mb.
The issue has always been how far north the rain would get. On today's runs, the rain is initially forecast for Northern England and Scotland, however now the rain is forecast to push South-eastwards across England and Wales as opposed to original forecasts which suggested it pushed east and missing southern areas. As such a little rain is possible for Thursday evening and overnight into Friday. The best of any sunshine is likely for the morning with more cloud expected into the afternoon and into the evening. Temps are expected to be around 19-21c.
[b]Friday 28 June[/b]
There is a further change to the modelling today, with the centre of the High to be further out west, and for pressure to be closer to 1025mb, this increases the risk of fronts to push through Southern areas, rather than stay further north. Friday is expected to start rather damp and cloudy after the patchy overnight rain clears away to the east. It is then expected to turn a bit drier and bright as the days progresses although sunshine amounts are now expected to be limited. Big difference in the models for max temps, GFS says 21-23c, Meto say 17-18c, but even Meto have a big temp range for Friday. Another issue this evening is uncertainty about another front Friday night, which may give a little rain into Saturday, the risk is this happening remains low at the moment and rainfall amounts are not expected to be massive, but I will keep an eye on it for tomorrow.
[b]Saturday 29 June[/b]
There is a little bit more certainly about the pattern for Saturday, pressure is set to be around 1025mb, with a West to North West flow, pressure is a bit lower than suggested a few days ago, with the centre of the High Pressure a bit further out west. At this stage Saturday looks dry, although quite a lot of cloud is expected in the morning, more in the way of brightness and eventually sunny intervals, expected later in the day, Max temps 18-21c.
[b]Sunday 29 June[/b]
Still some uncertainty but the High Pressure is set to build closer to the UK so although the pressure is not much higher, still around 1025mb, the centre of it bring that bit further north means fronts are likely to take more a northerly route and as such Sunday at this stage, looks mostly dry and settled. So some sunny intervals/spells are possible into the afternoon, with Temps around 19-23c.
[b]Overall [/b]
The total rainfall chart 06Hz suggest a little bit more rain than previous days at around 6-9mm, most of this is expected Thursday and Friday, the 12hz run was not available tonight.
The ensembles go for the pressure to start at 1030mb, drop off quickly Thursday and Friday, before increasing the pressure into the weekend.
[attachment=175851:GEFS 25a 3.png][attachment=175865:GEFS 25b 4.png]
[b]Summary[/b]
From a synoptic point of view, good agreement in high pressure building to around 1030mb. GFS thoughts of dropping the pressure before next weekend seems to have been followed.
Still mostly Dry, with rainfall likely to be under 10mm, with Thursday and Friday, looking a little bit damper than suggested in recent days.
The festival looks like starting on a sunny note, turning a bit cloudier on Thursday afternoon, thereafter, the best of any brighter/sunny spells into the afternoon.
Temps looking good as well, high teens to low 20s, possibly a bit warmer into the weekend.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7/10 (7.5/10) Some rain Thursday and possibly Friday, but total rainfall over the festival looking quite small including over the weekend.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 7/10 (8/10) Currently the ground looks dry, and it should stand up to the small rainfall amounts expected during the festival.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (7/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
To sum up in 4 words, Mostly Dry and Warm.
It is Looking mostly Dry and settled, although a little rain Thursday / Friday, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected especially towards the end of most days, and quite warm in any sunshine, perhaps very warm over the weekend. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
Some of you have been very kind to send some site photos and conditions are looking good, and if the models are correct for the next 6 days, there should be no reason for this to change.
I know some of you will be off to the festival for the next few days, so have a good one and remember to keep in touch via the Net Weather twitter account which will publish a link to all new blog posts.
Enough padding by me and on for with the forecast, which will again do the forecast for each day of the forecast.
[b]Overview[/b]
Tuesday is looking settled and dry, with some decent sunny spells.
[b]Wednesday 26 June [/b]
High Pressure has ridged over the UK, with NW winds expected over Glastonbury, pressure is expected to be around 1030-1032mb, The odd shower is still just about possible late into the afternoon according to GFS, however most of the day is set to be sunny or at least bright with sunny intervals. Max temps are expected to be in the range 18-20c, perhaps just about hitting 21-22c.
[b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
High Pressure continues to edge eastwards, with winds West to NW over Glastonbury, pressure again expected to be around 1028-1030mb. A weather front if still forecast to be embedded with the High Pressure. At this stage the continuing expectation if for the heaviest of the rain to hit Northern parts of England and Scotland with Glastonbury likely to see some patchy rain at worst possible into the afternoon, although this may change a little. The best of any sunshine is likely for the morning with more cloud expected into the afternoon and into the evening. Temps are expected to be around 19-20c.
[b]Friday 28 June[/b]
Slight variances in the models at this point, but the general theme is for High Pressure to be slightly further out west with winds West to North West, and for the pattern to be slightly flatter than on Thursday, with pressure around 1025-1030mb. Friday is now expected to be dry according to the models, but with quite a bit of uncertainty about the cloud amounts at this moment quite a lot of cloud is expected, especially to start the day. Big difference in the models for max temps, GFS says 22-24c, Meto say 18-19c, but even Meto have a big temp range for Friday.
[b]Saturday 29 June[/b]
The general pattern of High Pressure to our South West is agreed, beyond this not much is certain, Pressure for the Glastonbury area between models ranges from 1023-1028mb, and some have the centre of the High quite close to the UK, others halfway to the Azores. It does seem likely to be dry, with fronts probably too far north to effect Glastonbury, and temps are likely to be low to mid 20s. Some sunny spells seem likely but some uncertainty at this stage.
Afternoon Runs for Saturday (L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[attachment=175737:UKM 24b 120.gif] [attachment=175758:ECM 24b 120.gif] [attachment=175747:GFS 24 12 4.JPG]
[b]Sunday 29 June[/b]
There seems even less agreement on Sunday's weather, the general theme of High Pressure being nearby is agreed, beyond that no real agreement, with pressure forecast between 1022-1032mb and that is not even including the ensembles. Winds are likely to be from a West to South West direction and with 850Hpa temps around 10c, it not likely to be cold. So in summary looking dry, warm with temps low-mid 20s, and the chance of some sunshine.
[b]Overall [/b]
The total rainfall charts are very consistent with the lack of rainfall, both runs go for around 3mm of rainfall in the next 6 days. Equally the ensembles also support a very dry festival.
[attachment=175769:Rmgfs144sum 24 1.gif] [attachment=175776:Rmgfs144sum 24 2.gif] [attachment=175766:GEFS 24a 4.png] [attachment=175775:GEFS 24b 3.png]
The ensembles continue to go a pressure rise, and not dropping the pressure so much into next weekend either.
[attachment=175765:GEFS 24a 3.png] [attachment=175774:GEFS 24b 4.png]
[b]Summary[/b]
From a synoptic point of view, good agreement in high pressure building steadily next week to around 1030mb. Thereafter ECM the keenest of keeping High Pressure closest to us, GFS in the middle with UKMO less keen on doing so.
Mostly Dry, with rainfall likely to be under 5-6mm, not entirely sunny, with quite a lot of cloud on Thursday especially and to an extent Friday but bright at least on most other days. Temps looking good as well, high teens to low 20s, possibly a bit warmer into the weekend.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Perhaps a little rain Thursday into Friday, but total rainfall over the festival looking small including over the weekend.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 8/10 (7.5/10) Currently the ground looks dry, and there is no forecast reason for this to change throughout the festival period .
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (7/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
To sum up in 3 words, Dry and Warm.
It is Looking mostly Dry and settled, although perhaps not bone dry, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected, and quite warm in any sunshine, perhaps very warm over the weekend. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
There has been some rain on the Glastonbury Site over the past 24 hours, luckily the worst of the rain missed the site, with conditions underfoot remaining good.
As you more closer to the timings of any forecast, you can move from the overlying synoptic pattern to more specific weather details, and as such I will from now from break down the forecasts by day for the first time, and try to give a bit more detail, although I will keep the weekend a bit more "broad brush" for the time being.
[b]Overview[/b]
A few more showers are possible on site today but after this pressure slowly building up from the south west and remaining dry with the outside chance of a shower on Tuesday, but not amounting to anything.
[b]Wednesday 26 June [/b]
High Pressure has edged over the UK, with NW winds expected over Glastonbury, pressure is expected to be around 1030mb, The odd shower is possible into the afternoon according to GFS however most of the day is set to be sunny or at least bright with sunny intervals. Temps are expected to be in high teens/low 20s, perhaps just about hitting 21-22c.
[b]Thursday 27 June[/b]
High Pressure continues to edge eastwards, with winds NW over Glastonbury, perhaps veering W later, pressure again expected to be aorund 1030mb. Even though High Pressure is expected, a weather front is embedded within the High Pressure. The heaviest of the rain associated with it is forecast for Northern parts of England and Scotland with only some patchy rain is expected for Glastonbury. At this moment, timings are changing from run to run as is the extent to which it will push south. Currently with the best of bright or sunny weather in the morning, with more in the way of cloud later in the day together with any patchy precipitation for Glastonbury.
Temps are expected to be around 18-20c.
[b]Friday 28 June[/b]
Slight variances in the models at this point, but the general theme is for High Pressure to still be close by, with pressure around 1025-1030mb, wind between a W to NW direction. The general theme in the forecast for Friday, is slowly getting better after perhaps a damp start, depending how quickly "Thursdays" front passes through. Into the afternoon it looks dry or mostly dry with increasing brightness after a cloudy start. Temps could reach 20-21c into the afternoon, perhaps a bit higher if the brightness turns into late afternoon sunny spells.
(L-R, UKM, ECM, GFS)
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175665] [attachment=175672:ECM 23b 120.gif] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175661]
[b]Weekend [/b]
Again a little bit of uncertainty over the weekend, the chances of low pressure making it rather unsettled are reducing run by run, GFS is the least keen to introduce the highest pressure with pressure around 1020-1025mb, with UKMO ridging High Pressure closer to the UK, with ECM having HP centred over the UK on Sunday (1030mb), So GFS is the most likely to be slightly unsettled, ECM the most settled, and a very decent weekend in prospect.
Although there may be the odd weather front again with NW winds, it is looking mostly dry over the weekend with decent amounts of sunshine, GFS has temps of 21c on Saturday, and perhaps even 23-24c on Sunday.
Afternoon Runs for Sunday (L-R, ECM, GFS, GEFS)
[attachment=175670:ECM 23b 168.gif] [attachment=175687:GFS 23 12 5.JPG] [attachment=175678:GEFS 23b 2.png]
[b]Overall [/b]
The total rainfall charts are very consistent with the lack of rainfall, both runs go for around 5-6mm of rainfall in the next 6 days. Equally the ensembles also support a very dry festival.
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175654] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175667] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175650] [attachment=175680:GEFS 23b 4.png]
The ensembles continue to go a pressure rise, however the pressure fall late next week is quicker than before, but generally stabilising above 1020mb.
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175651] [attachment=175681:GEFS 23b 3.png]
[b]Summary[/b]
From a synoptic point of view, good agreement in high pressure building steadily next week to around 1030mb, however GFS then reduces the pressure a bit before the weekend , before slowly rebuilding by Sunday, Both ECM and UKMO keep the pressure high across the uK, meaning slightly more settled conditions.
Mostly Dry, with rainfall likely to be under 5-6mm, not entirely sunny, with quite a lot of cloud on Thursday especially and to an extent Friday but bright at least on most other days. Temps looking quite decent as well, high teens to low 20s, possibly a bit warmer into the weekend.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Perhaps a little rain Thursday into Friday, but total rainfall over the festival looking small including over the weekend.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 7.5/10 (7.5/10) Despite a bit of rain this weekend, things looking pretty good.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 7/10 (6.5/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s, perhaps mid 20s over the weekend.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Looking mostly Dry and settled, although perhaps not bone dry, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected, and quite warm in any sunshine, perhaps very warm over the weekend. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
[b]General Theme[/b]
A little bit more rain or showery outbreaks are possible tomorrow, however as expected high Pressure will steadily edge in across the UK over the start of next week. The start of next week looks mostly dry and settled, there may be some embedded weather fronts pushing in from the west on Tuesday, but this is likely to give some nuisance value cloud at worst. Otherwise Monday to Wednesday is looking dry and settled, bright or sunny.
[b]GFS Operational Runs[/b]
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1024mb), and with a slight NW ridge. The ridge continues to edge further north by Wednesday (1030-1032mb), with the 06Hz run pushing it a bit further north, both runs keep low pressure centred to the west of Iceland. For Thursday and Friday the 06Hz run keeps the High Pressure strong over the south, with the 12Hz flattening it quicker from the north. Over the weekend the 06Hz run finally collapses allowing a front to the North West a bit closer conversely the 12Hz run rebuilds the High Pressure from the south keeping fronts further north.
In terms of rainfall from Monday onwards both runs are pretty dry from the Monday through to the Wednesday with only the odd shower, if anything Tuesday looks the most likely day for the odd shower. For Thursday and Friday, there is the risk of fronts trying to edge in on the westerly wind, the 06Hz run has the front initially further north and moves it through South eastwards, so perhaps a little light rain Thursday evening, while a few showers are possible Friday. The 12Hz run has the rain band a bit further south, but moves it eastwards, so Glastonbury looking dry on both Thursday and Friday.
At this stage, looking mostly dry over the weekend, the 06Hz run keeps the low pressure further North and East than recent runs, but maybe the chance of some rain over Sunday evening. the 12Hz run builds High Pressure from the south so looking bone dry.
In Summary the 12Hz run looks very promising with very little rainfall, the 06Hz shows a little bit of rain for the late Thursday and perhaps a few showers on Friday, with maybe a little rain on Sunday, but rainfall totals looking very small at the moment.
Charts shown in order 06Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175523] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175522] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175521] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175520]
Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:175526] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:175525]
The 06Hz run has around 8-10mm of rain forecast, while the 12Hz run has 5-7mm of rain forecast. nothing substantial really.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Both ensembles continue with theme of pressure rising steadily next week to around 1030mb, with a slow decline in pressure around Thursday onwards to around 1020mb.The 12Hz op run keeps pressure a bit higher than the ensembles mean towards next weekend.
The 06Hz maintains the theme of a mostly dry festival, a few spikes of precipitation, but nothing massive expected. The 12Hz is almost entirely dry after this weekend, and there are also less spikes in the ensembles,
[b]ECM[/b]
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1025mb), no real change from yesterday. Both charts have the ridge extending North Eastwards by Wednesday, and both continue to have this further north than GFSs runs. Friday sees High Pressure over southern areas in both runs with Low Pressure to the North, the 12Hz has the High Pressure a bit further south. For the weekend there is a NW flow with Low Pressure centred off NE Scotland.
For the weekend both runs have moved away from low pressure effecting southern parts of the UK, notably the 12Hz run looks like rebuilding heights to the South West for the Sunday.
Charts shown in order 00Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175533:ECM 22a 48.gif] [attachment=175536:ECM 22a 96.gif] [attachment=175535:ECM 22a 144.gif] [attachment=175534:ECM 22a 192.gif]
Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175539:ECM 22b 48.gif] [attachment=175537:ECM 22b 96.gif] [attachment=175538:ECM 22b 144.gif] [attachment=175547:ECM 22b 192.gif]
[b]Summary [/b]
A few showers are possible tomorrow, after that looking mostly dry next week until Thursday. There is a slightly increased chance of some overnight rain into Friday, but not really amounting to much. Conversely, the chance of some rain next weekend has been reduced. A good deal of bright weather can be expected, pinpointing sunshine is always difficult at this stage Wednesday looks a good bet, while other days may see more of a mix of sun and cloud, but decent amounts of sunshine are likely each day, perhaps even into the weekend.
From tomorrow I will try to give forecasts for each day of the festival.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7.5/10 (7/10) Perhaps a little rain Thursday into Friday, but a reducing chance over the festival weekend, at this stage total rainfall over the festival is looking very small
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 7.5/10 (6.5/10) With the ground conditions looking good, and very little significant rain forecast, mud levels are likely to be low.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 6.5/10 (6/10) With upper air temps set to rise, Temps are set to be in the 20s perhaps even into the weekend.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Looking mostly Dry and settled, although perhaps not bone dry, a good amount of bright / sunny weather can be expected. Still bring those hired wellies and a brolly just in case.
Thanks for all your nice comments on Twitter, I know that many of you will be going off to Glastonbury, and given the theme of this blog. The forecasts will continue right up to the start of the festival, and there will be updates as well during the festival itself. please get involved on conditions on site both of the weather itself and of ground conditions. The updates of ground conditions helped me tweak the forecast.
One final thing, this blog has been quoted now in the Guardian and the Huffington Post, I just hope my forecast is close to the mark.
Moving onwards to the actual forecast.
[b]General Theme[/b]
As we all know by now there will be unsettled weather across the UK on Saturday as a Low Pressure system moves eastwards across the UK and this will provide some moderate rainfall for Glastonbury. On Sunday the low pressure system is set to weaken and move steadily North Eastwards, south western parts of the UK are likely to have some of the best weather, but some showers are still possible, these becoming increasing isolated and lighter as the day progresses.
High Pressure is slowly set to push in from the South West next week, giving mostly dry and settled conditions, how dominant this becomes and whether it will last until the end of the festival, will be discussed as per each model run later. Sorry for the copy and paste from yesterdays forecast.
[b]GFS Operational Runs[/b]
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1024mb), both runs have this ridge a little bit flatter than the on forecast yesterday. The ridge continues to edge further north by Wednesday (1030mb), with the 12Hz run pushing it a bit further north, both runs keep low pressure centred to the west of Iceland. Thursday sees low pressure starting to squeeze down from the North, but with pressure weakening but still remaining over 1024mb for southern areas. This squeezing process continues over the weekend as fronts push in from the west on Saturday, with the 12Hz allowing any fronts to edge that little bit further south. Sunday sees the first big difference between the models, the 06Hz run sees a ridge of High Pressure re establishing itself, while the 12Hz sees low pressure edging in from the North west.
In terms of rainfall from Monday onwards both runs are pretty dry from the Monday through to the Wednesday with only the odd shower. For Thursday and Friday, there is the slight risk of fronts trying to edge in on the westerly wind, the 06Hz run dissipates this before reaching the south on Friday morning, while the 12Hz has maybe something enough to wet the ground again for Friday morning. The models try to repeat this into Saturday, the 06Hz run keeps southern areas dry, while the 12Hz run has a little bit of rain reaching southern parts. Sunday looks dry on the 06Hz run, while the 12Hz run has a little bit of rain for Sunday night.
In Summary the 06Hz run looks very promising with very little rainfall, the 12Hz shows a little bit of rain for the weekend, nothing much to be concerned about at this stage, but we don't want the whole pattern edging south, as this coming weekend was initially forecast to have Low pressure further north.
Charts shown in order 06Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175428:GFS 21 06 1.JPG] [attachment=175427:GFS 21 06 2.JPG] [attachment=175426:GFS 21 06 3.JPG] [attachment=175425:GFS 21 06 4.JPG]
Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175424:GFS 21 12 1.JPG] [attachment=175423:GFS 21 12 2.JPG] [attachment=175422:GFS 21 12 3.JPG] [attachment=175421:GFS 21 12 4.JPG]
Rainfall Next 6 days
Both runs have around 8-10mm of rain forecast, nothing substantial really.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Both ensembles continue with theme of pressure rising steadily next week to around 1030mb, with a slow decline in pressure around Thursday onwards to around 1020mb.
The 06Hz maintain the theme of a very dry festival, however the 12Hz does have a few spikes indicating an increased chance of precipitation over the weekend.
This indicated a mostly dry and settled start the festival week probably right through to Friday, with an increased risk of some rain over the weekend.
[b]ECM[/b]
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1025mb), both runs a little bit quicker in doing so than yesterday's charts. Both charts have the ridge extending North Eastwards by Wednesday, but neither quite as far north as yesterday's runs, but the 12Hz a bit further north compared to the 00Hz and compared to the GFS runs. The 12HZ ECM run is also very similar to today's UKMO 12z run (not shown) Friday sees High Pressure over southern areas in both runs with Low Pressure to the North, the 12Hz has the High Pressure a bit further north. For the weekend both runs keeps any low pressure further away to the North and East with a ridge over South Western areas, this minimises the risk of any weekend rainfall.
Charts shown in order 00Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175442:ECM 21a 72.gif] [attachment=175441:ECM 21a 120.gif] [attachment=175440:ECM 21a 168.gif] [attachment=175439:ECM 21a 216.gif]
Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175446:ECM 21b 72.gif] [attachment=175445:ECM 21b 120.gif] [attachment=175444:ECM 21b 168.gif] [attachment=175443:ECM 21b 216.gif]
Again this favours a ridge of High Pressure for western areas, perhaps slipping away, but always tending to remain for the south west, to me this goes against the risk of low pressure massively effecting next weekend.
[b]Summary [/b]
While some rain is expected tomorrow and to a lesser extent Sunday, the start of next week through to around Friday is looking dry and mostly settled weather with some sunshine likely for good measure. There is a risk of some rainfall towards next weekend, but this is likely to be very light. For the weekend itself, some conflicting models, some are going for completely dry, others are gonig for some rainfall, while this is not expected to be massively heavy, there is an increased risk of some rain next weekend. This is something to keep an eye on, hopefully we will have a better idea of this likelihood by the start of next week.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Yesterday in brackets
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7/10 (7/10) Still looking dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend according to some models.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 6.5/10 (6/10) With the site remaining in good condition and low to moderate at worst rainfall expected between now and at least next Friday, the risk of a mud bath is reduced significantly from recent days.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 6/10 (5.5/10) Currently temps mid teens/low 20s, perhaps a bit cooler over the weekend
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your suncream and Sunglasses as it looks a dry, and possibly warm and bright start to the festival, There remains a risk of rain over the weekend, so still hire those wellies and a brolly just in case.
Forecast models notably GFS had forecast in the region of 25-50mm of rain for the Glastonbury area over the past few days, needless to say this has not remotely occurred, this will have big implications going forward.
[b]General Theme[/b]
There will be unsettled weather across the UK on Saturday as a Low Pressure system moves eastwards across the UK and this will provide some moderate rainfall for Glastonbury. On Sunday the low pressure system is set to weaken and move steadily North Eastwards, south western pars of the UK are likely to have some of the best weather, but some showers are still possible, these becoming increasing isolated and lighter as the day progresses.
High Pressure is slowly set to push in from the South West next week, giving mostly dry and settled conditions, how dominant this becomes and whether it will last until the end of the festival, will be discussed as per each model run later.
[b]GFS Operational Runs[/b]
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1024mb), the ridge continues to edge further north by Wednesday, with the 06Hz run pushing it a bit further north, the 12Hz run has low pressure a bit closer to the North West of the UK. By Friday, the 06Hz has edged the low pressure closer to the NW of the UK with a weak ridge over the UK, while the 12Hz has an area of High Pressure coving southern UK. Sunday sees low pressure over the UK on Sunday, while the 12Hz keeps a ridge of High Pressure over Southern and Western areas, a bit a little bit unsettled to the North East.
In terms of rainfall from Monday onwards both runs are pretty dry from the Monday through to the Thursday with only the off shower. The 06Hz run has a little bit or rain forecast on Firday with perhaps something a little bit more substantial on the Sunday. The 12Hz shows a little bit of rain over the weekend, but not rally amounting to that much.
Charts shown in order 06Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175316:GFS 20 06 2.JPG] [attachment=175315:GFS 20 06 3.JPG] [attachment=175314:GFS 20 06 4.JPG] [attachment=175313:GFS 20 06 5.JPG]
Charts shown in order 12Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
[attachment=175329:GFS 20 12 2.JPG] [attachment=175328:GFS 20 12 3.JPG] [attachment=175327:GFS 20 12 4.JPG] [attachment=175326:GFS 20 20 5.JPG]
Rainfall Next 6 days
The 06Hz run has 7-8mm of rain forecast, the 12Hz run shows around 10mm of rain, nothing substantial really.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Both sets of ensembles look largely dry, especially the 12Hz run, pressure is set to rise steadily next week to around 1030mb before dropping back to around 1020mb towards the end of the festival, the 12Hz is slower with this pressure drop off, there are very few rainfall spikes, so while the festival may not be bone dry, no real significant rain is expected, any rain that does fall is more likely over the weekend.
Both runs show pressure slowly ridging up from the South West on Monday (1025mb), the ridge extends up to Northern Scandinavia by Wednesday, and while the 12Hz had a more robust feel, both runs make far more of the ridge than GFS, both runs also keep any low pressure further away to the North West. Friday sees High Pressure over southern areas in both runs with Low Pressure to the North West, the 06Hz run has the High Pressure a bit further north. For the weekend The 06Hz run looks to keep low pressure away to the North East, while the 12Hz run moves it a bit further south, so a greater chance of something more unsettled to end the festival with the 12Hz run, with low pressure and NW winds on this run. But generally though a mostly dry festival before this.
Charts shown in order 00Hz (Mon 24 June, Wed 26 June, Fri 28 June and Sun 30 June)
Continues to go with the theme of High Pressure over western or close to western areas.
[b]Summary [/b]
The pre festival rainfall is now forecast to be 10mm or less, and together with most of the festival looking dry, things are looking up. Pressure is steadily set to build over the UK from the South West from Monday onwards, with a good deal of settled weather expected until probably Friday. Some op runs continue to go for unsettled weather towards the festival weekend and that is something to keep an eye in future runs, the ensembles show a slow but steady fall back in pressure over the weekend, but no support for things to break down.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 7/10 Looking Dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 6/10 With the site currently in good condition and low to moderate at worst rainfall expected between now and at least next Friday, the risk of a mud bath is reduced significantly from recent days.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 5.5/10 Currently temps mid teens/low 20s, perhaps a bit cooler over the weekend
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your suncream and sunglasses as it may well be a mostly dry festival, especially to start, perhaps hire those wellies as you may be able to get your money back on unused goods.
A slight change in the forecast today, in that the pattern for this week and for the weekend is now agreed between the models, so I'll do the summary here to save late duplication.
Remaining unsettled this week, with some rain expected on Thursday, however the amount of rain now expected now a lot less than previously forecast. Low Pressure now on its established southern track pushing westwards across the UK during early hours of Saturday morning with showers to follow for the rest of the weekend. Better agreement now on the pressure build up into next week, which should start to edge across early on Monday, which is a little bit slower than some forecasts were suggesting yesterday.
The model analysis whihc follows will concentrate on Festival Week/ weekend itself.
[b]GFS Operational Charts[/b]
[based on 06Hz 19th June run]
The 06Hz shows pressure build up quite quickly and a decent way North on Monday, meaning a mostly dry day on Monday. A ridge of High Pressure edges further east on Tuesday and Wednesday, and only the odd light shower is possible. Low Pressure looks sets to break through the block on Friday giving quite a wet weekend, although this does look a bit of a outlier compared to the ensembles.
Charts shown in order (72 Sat 22 June, 144 Tue 25 June, 192 Wed 27 June, 240 Fri 29 June)
[based on 12Hz 19th June run]
The 12Hz shows pressure build up quite quickly next week, and although not as far north as the 06Hz, it should still stay day on Monday. Pressure continues to build up on Tuesday and Wednesday, although GFS indicates a few showers, but this shouldn't really amount to much. For the remainder of the festival, fronts push west to east on the top of the High Pressure, but South Western areas should escape the worst of any rainfall.
The 12Hz run shows around 9-12mm of rain for the next 6 days, this is driest forecast of this type in recent days.
[attachment=175098:Rmgfs144sum 19 1.gif]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Both reflect the reduced rainfall expected tomorrow, and show a very quick rise in pressure for next week, and although pressure does drop a bit over teh weekend , pressure gernally rmain quite high, and rainfall is is forecast to be quite low over the run.
[based on 06Hz 19th June run]
The op run was bit of an outlier in terms of pressure and rainfall over the weekend.
[attachment=175100:GEFS 19a 1.png] [attachment=175099:GEFS 19a 2.png] [attachment=175102:GEFS 19a 3.png] [attachment=175101:GEFS 19a 4.png]
[based on 12Hz 19th June run]
The op run was a bit drier for tomorrow compared to most of the ensembles, otherwise it was mainly close to the ensemble mean.
[attachment=175123:GEFS 19b 1.png] [attachment=175122:GEFS 19b 2.png] [attachment=175121:GEFS 19b 3.png] [attachment=175120:GEFS 19b 4.png]
[b]NOAA Upper Charts [/b][based on run published 19th June]
[attachment=175130:610day.03 19.gif] [attachment=175129:814day.03 19.gif]
Shows High Pressure to the west of the UK in a similar fashion to the op run.
[b]ECM[/b]
[based on 00Hz 19th June run]
The op 00Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure over western UK by Tuesday which should keep things mostly dry for SW areas. This builds steadily by Thursday, however it is forecast to flatten on Friday with the risk of some fronts from the North west over the weekend.
The op 12Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure over western UK by Tuesday and Wednesday which should keep things mostly dry for SW areas. The High Pressure is forecast to flatten by Thursday with an increased risk of some fronts from the North west, with an ominous looking charts on Friday, with low pressure on top of the UK on Saturday.
[b]Summary [/b]
The risk of rain for Thursday now looks a lot less than some previous forecasts, the other meaningful rainfall expected over the weekend. For Glastonbury festival week itself, signs of a steady pressure rise and the start of the festival looking mostly dry and settled. Some op runs are going for more of unsettled weather towards the festival weekend and that is something to keep an eye in future runs, the ensembles show a steady fall back in pressure over the weekend, but no support for things to break down.
Many runs had forecast pre festival rainfall in excess of 25mm, others over 50mm, however with current estimates of closer to 10mm, and this should not cause that much of a problem, especially given that recent on site reports have suggested that current conditions are far drier on site than at the same time in recent years. Also recent investments on site has continued to improve the drainage there. The updated Mudbath /Dustbowl rating and subsequent ones will reflect all these factors.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 6/10 Looking Dry for the start of the festival, an increased risk of some rain over the weekend
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 5/10 Some rainfall can be expected before the festival, but probably not of the quantity needed to saturate the site
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 4.5/10 temps probably around or just below average, but pleasant enough in any sunshine
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your suncream and sunglasses as it may well be a mostly dry festival, especially to start, but there may still be a little mud around, so wellies may also be needed.
[b]GFS Operational Charts[/b]
As per yesterday, I'll start by trying to find the common ground between the runs. Remaining unsettled this week, with the risk of some heavy rain on Thursday. Low Pressure now on its established southern track pushing westwards across the UK during early hours of Saturday morning with showers to follow on Saturday. Pressure slowly increasing from the South West on Sunday and into next week and this is where the disagreement start.
[based on 06Hz 18th June run]
The 06Hz op run shows quite a quick pressure build up from the South West, (this reducing the shower risk on Sunday), so that a ridge of High Pressure is over South Western areas by early hours Monday. While the High Pressure is never in complete control, it keeps weather fronts away to the north and the start of the festival looks dry and mostly settled. There is an increased risk of fronts making more of an impression towards the weekend, but any rainfall not looking heavy at this stage.
Charts shown in order (96 Sat 22 June, 168 Tue 25 June, 216 Wed 27 June, 264 Fri 29 June)
[attachment=174906:GFS 18 06 1.JPG] [attachment=174905:GFS 18 06 2.JPG] [attachment=174904:GFS 18 06 3.JPG] [attachment=174903:GFS 18 06 4.JPG]
The 06Hz op run shows quite a quick pressure build up from the South West, (this reducing the shower risk on Sunday), so that a ridge of High Pressure is over South Western areas by early hours Monday. While the High Pressure is never in complete control, it keeps weather fronts away to the north and the start of the festival looks dry and mostly settled. There is an increased risk of fronts making more of an impression towards the weekend, but any rainfall not looking heavy at this stage.
The 06Hz run shows around 12-14mm of rain for the next 6 days.
[attachment=174902:Rmgfs144sum 18 1.gif]
[based on 12Hz 18th June run]
The 12Hz op run shows a slower pressure build up from the South West, with a ridge of High Pressure mid Monday, this ridge holds for the start of the festivals and looking dry until Thursday. Fronts a bit further south than the 06Hz run, and some rainfall is possible on both Thursday and Friday, but not looking that heavy at this stage. However a deep area of low pressure is forecast for the weekend, giving the potential of further heavy rain.
The 06Hz run shows around 22-30mm of rain for the next 6 days. So despite largely similar synoptic pattern over the next few days, the 12Hz run is wetter, most of this relates to the expected rainfall this Thursday.
[attachment=174893:Rmgfs144sum 18 2.gif]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
[based on 06Hz 18th June run]
Pressure remains steady this week and drops over the weekend, however despite rainfall totals not looking that massive generally, although the op run was drier than the ensemble mean. Next week sees a quick rise in pressure in line with the op run, and remaining mostly settled until the weekend when pressure drops back once again, most ensembles though go for a mostly dry festival.
[attachment=174899:GEFS 18a 1.png] [attachment=174898:GEFS 18a 2.png] [attachment=174901:GEFS 18a 3.png] [attachment=174900:GEFS 18a 4.png]
[based on 12Hz 18th June run]
Pressure remains steady this week and drops over the weekend and more than the 06Hz run suggests, rainfall totals are generally a bit higher than the 06Hz run , and the op run is in line with the mean. Next week sees a steady rise in pressure in line with the op run, and remaining mostly settled until the weekend when pressure drops back once again, and while the op run is a bit of an outlier in terms of pressure drop and weekend rain, generally more ensemble runs go for weekend rain.
[b]ECM[/b]
Trying to find a consensus between runs, this week has fairly low pressure, with the risk of some rain from the east this week, although this risk is less than on the GFS. Low Presure set to push in across the UK over the weekend, giving moderate rainfall to all parts.
[based on 00Hz 18th June run]
The op 00Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with a tenuous ridge of High Pressure developing to the west of the UK, only by Wednesday does High Pressure properly build over the UK, whihc should mean a mostly dry start to the festival, although such a pattern is quite risky in terms of potential for rainfall.
[attachment=174911:ECM 18a 96.gif] [attachment=174910:ECM 18a 144.gif] [attachment=174909:ECM 18a 192.gif] [attachment=174908:ECM 18a 240.gif]
based on 12Hz 18th June run]
By Monday, we see a healthier build up of High Pressure for southern parts of the UK, which builds over the next days into a High Pressure block, more especially for western areas of the UK. Although within this High Pressure there is worrying T (identifying trough - mini area of low pressure) enclosed within it close to Southern areas for Tuesday. High Presure looks fairly steady over western areas until the end of the run, Friday 28th June.
[b]Summary [/b]
This week now looking generally unsettled however the risk of rain heavily concentrated heavily towards Thursday, other days not looking that troublesome. This weekend will see further rain as low pressure sweeps East/South Eastwards across the UK. For Glastonbury festival week itself, signs of pressure building from the south west, but disagreement between models as to this extent. ECM is more promising in this regard, and next week is looking drier than this week.
Sorry to repeat yesterdays comment pre festival rain, but this weeks rain could make ground conditions saturated, and hence increase the risk of a mud bath.
[b]Ratings :- [/b]
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 6/10 More promising. Despite GFS 12Hz run most runs are positive for next week, and ECM today quite steady in this regard.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 3.5/10 It seems very likely that there will be moderate rainfall between now and the festival commencing, quite possibly around an inch of rain, however the risk of more than that has receded, althoguh This Thursday still needs to be watched, perhaps some mud is expected but not a complete mudbath. .
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 5.5/10 winds from SW much of the time, and ECM goes for 850HPa temps above average.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your wellies and your sunglasses, the festival itself still possibly drier than average, but pre festival rain makes some mud on site a probability, with an increased risk at the moment of mudbath conditions.
Starting off with the [b]GFS Operational Charts [/b]
Trying to find a consensus between runs, this week has fairly low pressure, with the risk of Some thunderstorms form the east. For the weekend, Low Pressure is likely to effect most parts of the UK.
[based on 06Hz 17th June run]
The op 06Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, and pressure builds steadily from the West/South West, so that by early Wednesday, pressure is over 1028mb across the whole UK. It remains mostly setted for Glastonbury but signs of things turning a little but more unsettled from the south over the weekend.
The rainfall total charts suggests between 27-37mm of rain over the next 6 days.
[attachment=174706:Rmgfs144sum 17 1.gif]
[based on 12Hz 17th June run]
The op 12Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, and pressure builds slowly from the West/South West, with a ridge of High Pressure for more especially for South Western areas by Wednesday. However by Friday a fairly weak area of low pressure pushes across the UK, only clearing late Sunday.
The rainfall total charts suggests between 16-24mm of rain over the next 6 days.
[attachment=174711:Rmgfs144sum 17 2.gif]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
The Pressure is not now expected to rise significantly this week, indicating the pressure remaining rather unsettled, this is confirmed by the precipitation, bot ensembles run go for moderate amounts of precipitation, with the 12Hz run making the 20-21st June very wet for Somerset, and the 06Hz run having more precipitation over the weekend. Both then show drier conditions into next week, with steady pressure rises.
[based on 06Hz 17th June run]
[attachment=174721:GEFS 17a 1.png] [attachment=174720:GEFS 17 a 2.png] [attachment=174719:GEFS 17a 3.png] [attachment=174718:GEFS 17a 4.png]
[based on 12Hz 17th June run]
[b]NOAA Upper Charts [/b][based on run published 17th June]
[attachment=174735:610day.03 17.gif]
[attachment=174734:814day.03 17.gif]
Finally signs that the trough is moving off the UK, maybe signs of the end of Glastonbury looking a bit better,
[b]ECM[/b]
Trying to find a consensus between runs, this week has fairly low pressure, with the risk of Some thunderstorms from the east, however it appears ECM to have this as a lower risk than GFS, especially the 12Hz run . For the weekend, Low Pressure is likely to effect most parts of the UK.
[based on 00Hz 15th June run]
The op 00Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure developing to the west of the UK, briefly pressure rises to the South west, but for the festival, there are westerly winds , with low pressures edging in form the west, at this stage seemingly more likely to impact on Northern areas of the UK.
The op 12Hz run starts next week with Low Pressure to the North East of the UK, bur already with High Pressure in South Western parts of the UK, Pressure a bit further north than the 00Hz, looking far more settled for the festival, with Low Pressure systems only fringing northern parts of the UK.
[b]Summary [/b]
This week now looking generally unsettled with the risk of some rain at times, and due to the convective nature of the rain, rainfall is impossible to pinpoint. This weekend will see further rain as low pressure sweeps East/South Eastwards across the UK. For Glastonbury festival week itself, signs of pressure building from the south west, but disagreement between models as to this extent. ECM is more promising in this regard, and next week is looking drier than this week.
I have kept on about rain before the festival, but this weeks rain could make ground conditions saturated, and hence massively increase the risk of a mud bath.
[b]Starting the ratings :- [/b]
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 10=dry) 6/10 More promising Signs of things settling down next week.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 3/10 It seems very likely that there will be moderate rainfall between now and the festival commencing, an inch of rain seems likely, however there is the risk of far more than that this week, and as the chances of a dust bowl festival now seem slim, the rating must reflect that.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), 4.5/10 winds from a general western direction, 850HPa temps look around average.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your wellies and your sunglasses, the festival itself still possibly drier than average, but pre festival rain makes some mud on site a probability, with an increased risk at the moment of mudbath conditions.
A bit of a cheat today, I have copied this directly from my forecast on the main forum.
[b]GFS Operational Run[/b]
Both make more of the risk of Low Pressure from the east this week. especially the 12Hz run.The 06hz has total rainfall over the next 6 days of 6mm, while the 12Hz run has closer to 50mm, clearly that has big implications of the ground conditions.
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:174595] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174594]
My guess is the the 50mm is overstating things somewhat as no other run has come close to this level of rainfall, however this doesn't mean we can completely dismiss this run. Both of today's run have low pressure pushing in form the North West for the weekend , this takes a few days to clear east, and rainfall builds up over a couple of days. The High Pressure builds up from the south west is slower than desired, and there remains the potential for further rain for much of the festival.
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:174603] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174602] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174601] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174600]
In Summary Very disappointing runs today.
[b]GFS Ensembles [/b]
The Somerset ones are not working today.
The 06Hz and the 12Hz ensembles both go with the Low Pressure from the North West for the weekend, this is followed by a slow increase in Pressure from the south west over the Festival week.
The ensembles have been rock solid in increasing pressure from the South West, albeit a bit slower than was suggested a few days ago.
[b]ECM Operational Run [/b]
The 00Hz run also makes more of Low Pressure to the east this week, but not quite as much as the GFS run, Low Pressure pushes in from the North West this weekend, before a slow increase in Pressure from the South West during the Festival week, not the best run, but South Western areas largely missing out on the worst of the weather.
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:174604] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174606] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:174605]
The 12Hz run makes less of the Low Pressure to our east this week, it continues the theme of the Low Pressure pushing in from the North West for next weekend, there is general agreement on this theme.
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 5=dry) 5/10 an increased risk today of some rain during the festival, but probably settling down over the weekend.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 4/10 An increased risk of rain this week, especially from GFS, all models go for some level of unsettled weather next weekend.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), winds from a general western direction, 850HPa temps look around average.
[b]Summary [/b]
The amount of rain to be expected during this coming week is very much undecided and this could have. a big impact on ground conditions. What now seems more likely is that Low Pressure next weekend is set to give some rainfall next weekend. Big differences between the models thereafter GFS op run not keen in buildings heights, ECM far more positive.
Starting off with the [b]GFS Operational Charts [/b][based on 12Hz 15th June run]
I'll bring the days forward to be consistent with the op runs of previous days.
Charts shown in order (168 Sat 22nd June, 288 Tue 25 June, 312 Wed 26 June, 360 Fri 28 June)
The trend has been for High Pressure to slowly build from the South West, but some runs such as the 00Hz operation run today, went against this somewhat.
Looking specifically at the 12Hz op run, in the short term the precipitation forecast for the next 6 days has been reduced, with the majority of the rain over the next 48 hours. 15mm is more than manageable.
[attachment=174462:Rmgfs144sum 15.gif]
The general flow of the weather is for the Azores High Pressure to the far South west, and lower pressure further north, at times low pressure push westward/ South Eastwards over the top of the High pressures. So never settled and a changeable theme. The op run shows the worst of the Low Pressure staying over the north of the UK, as opposed to the 00Hz run which had it much further south for next weekend, so while never staying completely dry over Glastonbury, rainfalls totals not massive.
Into Glastonbury week, Pressure starting to rise significantly from the South West, however a fly in the ointment in that a LP system is forecast over the UK for Thursday and Friday which could give appreciable rainfall.
So very much a mixed picture from GFS today, good news in that it looks drier/less wet over the next couple of days and that the 12Hz keeps Low Pressure largely effecting Northern areas for next week. but bad news in the chance of some unsettled weather for the festival itself, each of today's op GFS runs has had some unsettled weather at times over the festival period.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b] [based on 06Hz 15th June run]
Pressure is generally set to rise to over 1020mb by mid the coming week, a brief dip is expected next weekend but back over 1020mb by the start of the festival, before dipping a bit at the end.
Rainfall shows a few peaks, firstly this weekend and to a lesser extent next weekend, apart this not completely dry, but no real wet weather, with the exception of the op run blip towards the end.
These are the most promising ensembles seen for a number of days.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b] [based on 12Hz 15th June run]
Again this shows Pressure quickly building up from the South West, and more settled than the Operational runs.
The Somerset charts were not available.
[b]NOAA Upper Charts [/b][based on run published 15th June]
Note these are raw charts, these are not modified by forecasters at weekend.
For the first time in a while the trough has lifted away from the UK, with neutral conditions over the UK at the 8-14 days range.
[b]ECM[/b] [based on 00Hz 15th June run]
Charts shown in order (144 Fri 21 June, 168 Sat 22 June, 240 Tues 25 June)
[attachment=174476:ECM 15a 144.JPG] [attachment=174481:ECM 15a 192.gif] [attachment=174474:ECM `15a 240.JPG]
Generally an unsettled theme, but the worst of the Low Pressure over Northern areas, and not too bad for Glastonbury, however Tuesday (T+240) looks a bit more troublesome as the LP would most likely move across eastwards across southern areas at the start of the festival. In contrast the ECM ensembles has pressure building up slowly from the south west.
Again generally an unsettled theme, but the worst of the Low Pressure over Northern areas, however it tends to develop the Low Pressure a little but more for next weekend. A ridge of High Pressure looks likely to follow but with a Low Pressure to the west again looking ominous.
[b]Summary [/b]
A general theme at the moment of High Pressure not far away of the South West of the UK, however how dominant this will be is very much in debate. Low Pressure systems look likely to move Eastwards across northern areas from the middle of next week onwards, southern parts of the the UK should be drier, but some runs today have some shown these Low pressures system on a slightly more southerly track at times, giving a bit more rain for South Western England next weekend and around the start of the Glastonbury festival.
Conversely the ensembles look a bit drier and maintain the theme of pressure rises from the South West.
[b]Starting the ratings :- [/b]
Festival Dryness (0= washout, 5=dry) 5.5/10 an increased risk today of some rain during the festival, but no washout likely.
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 4.5/10 Today's models show the next 6 days to be drier than previous runs, reducing the risk of a mudbath.
Heatwave rating (0 = freezing, 10 = heatwave), winds from a general western direction, 850HPa temps look around average.
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your wellies and your sunglasses, the festival itself still possibly drier than average,but pre festival rain could make ground underfoot wet and cause some mud on site, but probably without actually mud bath conditions.
Don't know whether to take the nerd comment as a compliment, but fame at last, and a bit pressure in getting the forecast right.
Again we start off with the [b]GFS Operational Charts [/b][based on 12Hz 14th June run]
I'll bring the days forward to be consistent with the op runs of Wednesday,
Charts shown in order (192 Sat 22nd June, 312 Tue 25 June, 336 Wed 26 June, 384 Fri 28 June)
The trend is for High Pressure to build from the Azores across the UK over the next few weeks,which has been the theme for a number of days.
[attachment=174301:GFS 14 1.JPG] [attachment=174300:GFS 14 2.JPG] [attachment=174299:GFS 14 3.JPG] [attachment=174298:GFS 14 4.JPG]
If this run is right the festival itself looks mostly settled with bright or sunnier than average, rainfall would be below average. Most would be happy with this. The remains uncertainty between the models, as an example the GFS 06Hz run had High Pressure more dominant by next weekend, reducing the risk of Low Pressure shown in the first image above for Next Saturday. I would suspect that the Pressure is below the ensembles average for Next Saturday, but above the ensembles average thereafter.
In the last blog update, I mentioned the potential of the festival itself being dry, but the changeable weather beforehand making the camp-site susceptible to mud due to rain over the next 12 days. The next charts is the GFS total rainfall predictor over the next 6 days.
[attachment=174302:Rmgfs144sum 14.gif]
This suggests about an inch of rain over the next 6 days, and by looking at the daily progression not shown by charts, it suggests the heaviest of the rain, on the feature Monday into Tuesday. This would considerably wet the ground, but there is still time for the ground to dry, providing the weather remains dry until the festival.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b] [based on 06Hz 14th June run]
These ensembles confirm the op run was indeed lower than the average in terms of pressure next Saturday, although there is a spike in rainfall around here, and then above the average thereafter. As per the 06Hz run, there is a slow rise in pressure before the start of the festival.
[b]NOAA Upper Charts [/b][based on run published 13th June]
The upper charts continue to show a trough over the UK, the 8-14 finally showing signs of this weakening over the UK.
[b]ECM[/b] [based on 12Hz 12th June run]
This shows unsettled weather this weekend, remaining rather changeable thereafter, with low pressure to the North West for the following weekend very similar to that portrayed in the GFS 192 above), pressure still is building slowly from the South West, but has less success in having an influence over the UK compared to the GFS.
Charts shown in order (120, Wed 19 June, 192 Sat 22 June, 240 Mon 24 June)
[note these are now in a better format, but makes them easier to download if required]
[attachment=174309:ECM 14 120.JPG] [attachment=174311:ECM 14 192.JPG] [attachment=174315:ECM 14 240.JPG]
[b]Summary [/b]
The charts are still a bit contradictory which is understandable this far out from the festival, there are tentative signs of things settling down once again, but there remains a period of unsettled weather to get through first. The big question is when things start to settle down, the GFS today has been pretty positive bridging the High Pressure in before the festival, the ECM tonight is a bit of a fly in the ointment, keeping low pressure close to the UK a few days before, I wouldn't have thought the end of the ECM run would be particularly wet, but they are not dry either.
[b]Starting the ratings :- [/b]
Festival Dryness (0=washout, 10 = dry) 6/10, it would have been higher if ECM was better
Ground Mudbath Rating (0=mudbath, 10 = dustbowl) 4/10, I am still concerned about rainfall before the festival.
Heatwave Rating (0= freezing, 10 = heatwave) 5/10, My guess is winds from the West,
[b]Newspaper Taglines [/b]
Bring your wellies and your sunglasses, the festival itself probably drier than average,but pre festival rain could make ground underfoot wet and cause some mud on site, but probably without actually mud bath conditions.
This new format is based on the post of Monday in the main Glastonbury thread on the forum, and this reflects the movement into the long term range of the main models.
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-3"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-3[/url]
[b]GFS Operational Charts [/b][based on 12Hz 12th June run]
Signs of High Pressure slowly re-establishing itself from Tuesday next week according to the GFS 12Hz run. The High Pressure lasts to a growing extent for most of the run, however a brief blip on the first Wednesday of the festival.Charts shown in order (240, Sat 22nd June, 312 Tue 25 June, 336 Wed 26 June, 384 Fri 28 June)
[attachment=174104:GFS 12 1.JPG] [attachment=174103:GFS 12 2.JPG] [attachment=174108:GFS 12 4.JPG] [attachment=174102:GFS 12 3.JPG]
So if the GFS op were to be believed not looking that bad, and probably mostly dry as well leading up to the festival, however other charts are not so promising.
This shows 12mm of rain, however this understates the rain compared compared to all the ensembles.
[attachment=174121:Rmgfs144sum.gif]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b] [based on 12Hz 12th June run]
The trends continue to be pressure ridging from the south, from as early as mid next week to around 1015mb, and steadily rising to 1020mb, however the op run a little bit progressive in increasing pressure too quickly, also a slight tendency for pressure to drop around the start of the festival. Most ensembles agree of heavy rain over next weekend, but after this signs of rainfall total dropping.
If anything this shows the High Pressure moving further away to the South west,
[b]ECM[/b] [based on 12Hz 12th June run]
This shows a lot of unsettled weather over the UK this weekend, however this also shows the trough moving northwards, with High Pressure for Southern areas by mid next week, before ending with low pressure one again. (in contrast to earlier runs which showed Low Pressure further south for much of the run).
Charts shown in order (120, Mon 17 June, 192 Fri 25 June, 240 Sun 27 June)
Things looking a bit promising tonight was High Pressure slowly ridging up on the main models next week, however these op runs are slightly progressive in doing so, however in the run up to Glastonbury festival period, it looks like drying up.
If this is the case, the heavy rain for this weekend makes a big difference.
If the rain is very heavy over, say 40mm, it could make the ground sodden for the festival, meaning a increased risk of a mud bath festival
If the rain is under 20mm, then it would wet the ground the ground but allowing the festival site to dry up before the festival.
Current guidance is for the latter in terms of this coming weekend, but this can easily change.
There is High pressure to the SW of the UK and also towards the NE, however there is a mini trough towards the SW with pressure expected to be slightly below average. This is consistent with the trough expected in the South West approaches for the mid part of next week, so this may account fore the lowish overall pressure to the SW of the UK. This is definitely a concern, however these charts also allow for pressure to rise again towards the end of the month. .although concerning, pressure towards the end of the month may be slightly higher.
[attachment=173610:July 13 Pressure (6 June).png]
Again there is High Pressure to the SW of the UK and also towards the NE, but this time with slightly above average pressure for the UK.
[attachment=173611:June 13 Pressure (6 June).png]
Between the two this indicates, the UK very much between two pattern, which should allow for a mixture of weather for the UK, a typical British summer in other words.
[b]T[/b][b]emps[/b]
Both months have temps above average for much of the UK with the exception of the SE corner, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for both months, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK. However each forecast for June has seen the above average anomaly reduce so now it is only just above 0, for Glastonbury.
[attachment=173612:June 13 Temps ( 6 July).png] [attachment=173613:July 13 Temps (6 July).png]
[b]Rainfall[/b]
The CFS forecast for June has rainfall around or slightly above average in the Glastonbury area [100-110%], a bit of a higher anomaly towards the Midlands again.
The CFS forecast for July has below average rainfall for the Glastonbury areas [90%] and for areas toward the South West , but above average for the Midlands [140%], this is much better than last weeks update, but still worth baring in mind the rainfall projections would tend to concentrate rain in the Midlands, so the 90% may be slightly understated.
Unfortunately the above doesn't really give that much clarity to the situation, or real information, one way or the other.
[b]CFS Daily runs[/b]
[b]Pressure / Synoptics [/b]
Date........... Runup to Festival ...........................................................Start / During Festival
30/05/2013 Deep Trough over UK for a week before festival.......LP to NE slowly being edged away by HP ridging up from SW.
31/05/2013 Largely settled but pressure lowering ........................Trough over UK at start, settling down again from S later
01/06/2013 HP for all of June, LP edging up on Mon 24................HP ridging in from South West
02/06/2013 LP week before remains at start .................................LP slowly edges away to NE
03/06/2013 Trough to SW UK ...........................................................Slowly weakens over UK
04/06/2013 Low Pressure in run Up ...............................................HP builds slowly from South West
05/06/2013 Trough over UK ..............................................................HP builds slowly from South West
06/06/2013 Trough over UK...............................................................Trough to NE cover most of UK, showery for SW
[b]Rainfall / Temperatures [/b]
Date...........Temps............................................................Rainfall
30/05/2013 Yellow to Orange........................................Wet run-up to festival, mostly dry for festival itself
31/05/2013 Orange/Deep Orange................................Rain at start, dry from Friday onwards
01/06/2013 Orange........................................................ Odd shower, perhaps more general on Friday, and maybe Sat
02/06/2013 Green / Yellow / Light Orange................... Rain most days, wet festival, not washout festival, but mud bath possible due to rain before festival
03/06/2013 Yellow/Light Orange.................................. Wet in build up, damp/wet over most of the festival, possible mud bath
04/06/2013 Yellow/Light Orange.................................. Periods of rain pushing east across UK
05/06/2013 Yellow/Light Orange.................................. Rain/ Showers in build up, drier over weekend
06/06/2013 Green / Yellow / Light Orange................... Wetish in build up, wet/damps start, drying Up
Of the 7 forecasts above, none go for an entirely dry festival, 3 go for a very wet festival, and 4 for a damp, mixed festival, Not particularly good news, but that's what the models say.
UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Jun 2013 to Saturday 6 Jul 2013:
Indications currently show that the weather is likely to be rather changeable through the end of June and early part of July, with westerly winds allowing weather systems to push in from the Atlantic, bringing spells of rain at times. Southern areas look likely to become a little less unsettled later in the period. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the times of year, especially in western parts, whereas rainfall amounts look to be close to average in most places.
Again not the best news from the latest Met Office thoughts.
[b]Current Outlook [/b]
Currently we are in a settled spell of dry (or mostly dry) weather, which has given some decent conditions across the South West.
However it is set to turn much more unsettled from the West / South West next week.
This is the current GFS run, which tries to ridge High Pressure from the south and minimise the unsettled nature of next week.
[attachment=173627:Current Synoptics.png]
[b]12 and 15 June [/b]
[attachment=173630:12 June.JPG] [attachment=173629:15 June.JPG]
[b]18 and 23 June [/b]
[attachment=173628:18 June.JPG] [attachment=173626:23 June.JPG]
The GFS op run is drier and has higher pressure than the majority of the ensembles next week. Pressure drops next week according to the ensembles to an average of 1010mb, this steadily rises close to 1020mb by the end of the run and precipitation rates falls a little.
No question that the GFS offers a glimmer of hope for southern areas as we lead towards the Glastonbury festival.
ECM has suggested a more unsettled outlook. [attachment=173637:Recm1201.gif] [attachment=173636:Recm1921.gif] [attachment=173638:Recm2401.gif]
ECM continues to be more unsettled, but the Jet Stream a bit further north than previously suggested, with the Azores High attempting to make an appearance, could still be wet at times in the south next week though, T+240 is not a bad starting point though in the runup to Glastonbury.
[b]NOAA Upper charts[/b]
6-10 day outlook this has a trough to the SW of the UK
[attachment=173635:610day.03.gif]
8- 14 day outlook has a trough to the SW of the UK
[attachment=173634:814day.03.gif]
Both show a very unsettled next couple of days and ahead of Glastonbury we don't really want an unsettled pattern the week before, one as it would leave the ground wet but it may also start a pattern which may be hard to shift.
[b]Overall Summary[/b]
A lot of analysis tonight, which has shifted to the more reliable models. Overall not the best of news, hints of a unsettled period of weather in the run up to the festival, and for those wanting a dry festival, we want the trend of a ridging Azores High, otherwise a trend towards an unsettled festival seems likely. I think a mixed festival is the most likely at the moment, and weather like we have seen over the past week the least likely option.
Very much worth watching to see how much of an influence the Azores High has towards next weekend, this could set the pattern for Glastonbury and perhaps beyond.
This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.
[b]CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)[/b]
[b]Pressure[/b]
June has a big +ve anomaly to the West/ South west of the UK, and this covering much of the UK and running through to Scandinavia.
July in contrast has more has a mini trough over Northern UK with pressure around or just below normal or the UK (within 1mb of average), there remains High Pressure to the West of the UK and also over Scandinavia. Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK.
Both months have temps above average for much of the UK with the exception of the SE corner, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for both months, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.
June shows much of the UK below average in terms of rainfall, with Glastonbury is on the edge of the 70-80% rainfall areas, however up to 130% in the Midlands.
July shows a much wetter picture, above average for the UK, mostly around 110-130% of rainfall, but closer to 170-180% in the Midlands.
It is worth restating the CFS tends to overstate rainfall in the Midlands, as rainfall in concentrated there due to the CFS lack of detail this far out. So don't take this as read that the Midlands will be wetter than other parts, however there is a clear pattern of above average rainfall over the UK and therefore fro Glastonbury around this time.
[b]Summary[/b]
The current outlook is for quite decent condition generally for June, temps above average, and higher pressure than normal.
As we move into July, there is a higher risk of less settled conditions and this obviously impacts the Glastonbury festival right at the end of June, however the large rainfall anomaly forecast doesn't quite tie in with the pressure charts, as the pressure is only slightly below normal, worth keeping an eye on.
[b]CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)[/b]
These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.These take in the forecasts on the Meteociel site issued 24/5 to 30/5 May, so 7 runs in total, however the run issue on 25th May was not available for June.
Looking at June first, at Ground level (SLP), 1 of the runs, has a deep trough over South Western UK, 2 have pressure just above normal, and 3 well above normal, temps are generally above average around 1c, more in the north, rainfall generally below average for the south, a bit above average for the Midlands.
[font=arial]General thoughts for July, again one of the runs has a deep trough over the UK, 2 had pressure around average and 4 have pressure above/ well above average, with either a HP over the UK and a ridge of High Pressure. [/font]temps are generally above average around 1-2c, more in the north, rainfall generally average to below average in the Glastonbury,areas, but above average on a number of runs for East Wales into the Midlands.
Most of the runs are generally quite good, but there have been some runs which would give decidedly unsettled weather hopefully the majority will be correct.
[b]Pressure / Synoptics [/b]
Date........... Runup to Festival ..................................................Start / During Festival
24/05/2013.Mostly High Pressure............................................. Ridge / High Pressure over most of UK
25/05/2013 LP TO NE, HP building from SW Settled start.........LP perhaps pushing in from E for weekend
26/05/2013 Battle LP to NE, HP to SW.......................................Battle continues, LP perhaps winning with NW winds
27/05/2013 Battles between LP and HP.....................................Troughs over UK, rather unsettled
29/05/2013 HP generally over UK..............................................Gradually pressure reducing over time
30/05/2013 Deep Trough over UK for a week before festival.....LP to NE slowly being edged away by HP ridging up from SW
[b]Rainfall / Temperatures [/b]
Date...........Temps..........................................................Rainfall
24/05/2013 Orange/Deep Orange.................................perhaps a little rain run-up, mostly dry festival, odd showers possible
25/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange................................... Showery at times, perhaps more general rain weekend possibly missing to south
26/05/2013 Green / Yellow.............................................Showery build-up, bands of rain pushing across during festival, not washout, but quite wet generally
27/05/2013 Yellow to Orange.........................................Fronts pushing in from time to time, a bit of a washout
29/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange...................................Odd showers to start, perhaps more general rain over weekend
30/05/2013 Yellow to Orange........................................Wet run-up to festival, mostly dry for festival itself
Unfortunately the forecast summary I did for the 28/5/13 got mislaid.
None of the above daily forecasts are brilliant, 1 has a mostly dry festival after a dry build-up, 3 go for a showery set-up and 2 go for wet/washout conditions.
[b]UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Jun 2013 to Saturday 29 Jun 2013: (Met Office)[/b]
There are currently no strong or clear signals for any particular weather pattern to dominate through the rest of June. However, temperatures are likely to be near, or a little below average for the time of year. This is likely a result of having unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures for the time of year surrounding the United Kingdom.
[b]Overall Summary [/b]
Early indications now give mixed messages, June still looks quite good generally, but July does not look as good with some of the above forecasts, and the daily forecast for the festival period itself do not that promising, a week or two earlier might be better. Still a long way off and things will continue to change.
June has a big +ve anomaly to the south west of the UK, and this covering much of the UK, July in contrast has more of a mixed weather pressure
Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK.
Both months have temps above average, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for June and +1 and +2 for July, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.(Literally a cut and paste from last week showing no change)
June shows below average rainfall for the whole of the UK, with Glastonbury is on the edge of the 70-80% rainfall areas. For July, generlly below average rainfall for the UK including the Glastonbury area, but above average, in the Midlands.
Looking at this for a couple of weeks, it appears to me that the Midlands seems to be highlighted for showery activity when there is potential for this and due to the lower resolution of CFS, this area is always highlighted, so the above rainfall for this area is probably overstated, but understated elsewhere.
[b]Summary[/b]
Based on the weekly forecasts, June/July is set to see above average temps, have higher pressure than normal (more especially June) and be drier than average more especially June. The better month has changed towards June from July, but the general theme is not too bad.
I think we would all be happy with this.
There will be further analysis later of the daily raw CFS runs from Net Weather and a summary of the CFS monthly runs from Meteociel.
[b]CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)[/b]
These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.These take in the forecasts on the Meteociel site issued 17/5 to 2/5 May, so 7 runs in total.
Looking at June first, many of these have High pressure around the UK, quite often to the West or North of the UK, but not over the UK itself, but 4 have pressure over southern UK above average, with 3 below average, temps are generally above average around 2c, more in the north, rainfall pretty neutral away from the Midlands, but this has already been mentioned above.
[font=arial]General thoughts for July, 2 runs with pressure well above average, 2 neutral, and 2 well below average[/font], however 6 of the 7 runs, with a big +ve anomaly to the North/West of the UK, temps are generally above average around 2c,
2c, more in the north, rainfall generally below average away from the Midlands.
Current trends are for generally [font=arial]decent and settled weather, but HP relenting at times for some heavy showers, more especially inland, of course when these occur are impossible to pinpoint at this stage, hopefully they will give Glastonbury festival period a miss.[/font]
[b]Pressure / Synoptics [/b]
Date........... Runup to Festival .................................................Start / During Festival
17/05/2013...High Pressure in Control with E winds..................LP attempt to push in from SW at times
18/05/2013...HP before, then low pressure from E pushing in..HP in West building
19/05/2013...Low Pressure to NE.............................................HP in South West slowly builds
20/05/2013...Low Pressure over UK/NE...................................HP ridging in from SW
21/05/2013...High Pressure fading...........................................LP to start, Ridge rebuilding from SW
22/05/2013...High Pressure fading...........................................LP developing over S UK to start, HP building over weekend
23/05/2013...Trough push away by High to SW....................... High generally, but perhaps LP from west Sunday
[b]Rainfall / Temperatures [/b]
Date...........Temps..........................................................Rainfall
17/05/2013 Light Orange / Orange ...............................Looking mostly dry, perhaps odd showers
18/05/2013 Light Orange / Orange ...............................Some afternoon showers
19/05/2013 Light Orange / Orange ...............................Showery in run-up, some rain Thursday else mainly dry
20/05/2013 Light Orange/Orange/Deep Orange ...........Showery beforehand and perhaps during festival itself
21/05/2013 Orange/Deep Orange................................. Showery to start.Drier thereafter
22/05/2013 Orange........................................................Showery, heavy rain from LP.......Set to miss to South
23/05/2013 Yellow/Orange.............................................Dry immediate build-up.A few showers mid festival, perhaps more rain sun
At this stage, looking a bit better than last week, with Higher Pressure close to the West/ South West looking a positive.
[b]Overall Summary [/b]
Early indications continue to suggest that conditions are likely to be better/around average for time of year and conditions are set to be reasonable, without mud bath conditions. Hopefully next week's update can maintain this feeling, also next week will see the Meto's long range forecast come into range and this will be looked at going forward.
This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.
[b]CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)[/b]
[b]Pressure[/b]
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:171377] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:171378]
June shows higher pressure to the South West of the UK, with pressure over the UK close to average. July maintains the theme of higher than average pressure of top of the UK. Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK.
[b]Temps[/b]
Both months have temps above average, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for June and +1 and +2 for July, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.
Very similar to last week's forecasts, June shows below average rainfall area for the South West, but above average for the Midlands, Glastonbury is just in the below average rainfall areas. A similar pattern for July but the below average range is further north, and Glastonbury is on the edge of the 80-100% rainfall areas.
[b]Summary[/b]
Based on the weekly forecasts, June/July is set to see above average temps, have higher pressure than normal (more especially July) and be drier than average more especially July. I think we would all be happy with this.
[b]CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)[/b]
These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.
Unsurprisingly these tend to tie up with the CFS monthly forecast above,
[font=arial]General thoughts for June, High pressure quite often close to the UK, with big positive anomaly[/font]to west of the UK on several runs, temps just above normal, with Northern UK consistently a bit warmer relative to average, precipitation below average generally, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.
[font=arial]General thoughts for July, Pressure higher than average over the UK on most runs, more especially for Northern UK, temps about 2-3c above normal, , precipitation below average generally, well below average to far SW, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.[/font]
[font=arial]Perhaps this indicate generally quite decent and settled weather, but HP relenting at times for some heavy showers, more especially inland, of course when these occur are impossible to pinpoint at this stage, hopefully they will give Glastonbury festival period a miss.[/font]
[b]Raw CFS forecasts - issued Daily on NetWeather (19th - 30th June)[/b]
[b]Pressure / Synoptics [/b]
Date........... Runup to Festival .......................Start / During Festival
11/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................Slightly less unsettled from SW
12/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.................... HP from SW, in a bit, with West/NW winds
13/05/2013 Trough over UK ..........................Trough weakens with general LP over UK
14/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................HP to SW A little unsettled west winds
15/05/2013 Trough slowly weakening out...... W flow then HP from SW towards w'kend
16/05/2013 Low Pressure before festival.......Rather unsettled as HP stays to SW Light
[b]Rainfall / Temperatures [/b]
Date.......... Temps.............................. Rainfall
11/05/2013 Light Orange................... Wet in run-up, showery/wet across festival
12/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Wet in runup, heaviest rain to NW, but chance heavy rain Sat
13/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Showery/rain in build up and over festival
14/05/2013 Yellow to Orange..............Mix of rain and drier spells
15/05/2013 Yellow/Orange..................Rain most days, not massively heavy
16/05/2013 Orange............................ Showery,wet on 1/ 2 days
Again these daily forecasts have been less favourable than the monthly ones.
[b]Overall Summary[/b]
At this stage, no definite conclusion, but this far out that is no surprise, for those wanting a dry festival, I would certainly hope the monthly forecast are more accurate thean the daily ones.
There was decent fresh snow over medium to higher slopes at the start of the past week, but much milder temps has brought rain to all but the very highest slopes, making snow conditions not fantastic, despite the abundance of snow still at some higher slopes.
[url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full[/url]
Looking very mild next week, so it really is a must to head for the very highest slopes.
[b]Synoptic Summary[/b]
Low Pressure over the Alps at the moment, with a coolish Westerly flow, with low pressure also over the Atlantic and high pressure over the Azores and over Northern Africa. Over the weekend, the low pressure over the Atlantic will edge east with a mild SW flow setting up for NW Europe in conjunction with high pressure building over Europe to the East.
[attachment=168215:12 Apr Current.JPG] [attachment=168214:14 Apr.JPG]
A mild SW flow is expected to persist until midweek with 850HPA reaching 10c at times over the Alps from a Spanish plume. Thereafter High Pressure is likely over the Alps but with mild air in situ more especially for SW parts of the Alps.
[size=4][font=arial][b]Sat 13 Apr[/b][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial]Some overnight precipitation tending to clear quite quickly, so that by morning mostly dry over the Alps. A few patchy showers developing for the first part of the afternoon, but generally well scattered and not that heavy.
A north South split in the temperatures, Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 1700m-2100m (N to S), French Alps 2200-2400m (NW to SE), Switzerland 2000-2300m (NW to S), Italian Alps 2100m-2300m, Austria 1700m-2100m (NE to SW)[/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial][attachment=168208:13 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]
[b][size=4][font=arial]Sun 14 Apr[/font][/size][/b]
[size=4][font=arial]A dry day seems likely over the Alps with decent sunny spells for skiing in for most, given the milder temps, some thaw is likely. It really is starting to warm up from the west with Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 2000m-3500m, French Alps 3000-3500m, Switzerland 2500-3500m, Italian Alps 2000m-3500m, Austria 1600m-3000m (All East to West)[/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial][attachment=168207:14 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]
[b][size=4][font=arial]Mon 15 Apr [/font][/size][/b]
[size=4][font=arial]Another dry day seems likely over the Alps with decent sunny spells for skiing in for most, given the temps a rapid thaw is likely. The milder weather now covers the whole of the Alps. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 3000m-3200m, French Alps 3200-3400m, Switzerland 3200-3400m, Italian Alps 3200m-3600m, Austria 2400m-3200m (All East to West)[/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial][attachment=168206:15 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]
[b][size=4][font=arial]Tue 16 Apr[/font][/size][/b]
[size=4][font=arial]Mostly dry to start, a few showers developing in the morning, these tending to become far more extensive during the afternoon, heavy and moderate in places, largely falling as rain except on the highest slopes. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany, French Alps, Switzerland, the Italian Alps, Western Austria 3000m-3100m, E Austria 2400m-3000m[/font][/size]
[attachment=168205:16 Apr Alps.JPG]
[size=4][font=arial][b]Wed 17 Apr[/b][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial]Mostly dry in the morning, however showers tending to develop into the afternoon, heavy and moderate in places, largely falling as rain except on the highest slopes. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 2600m-2700m, French Alps 2900-3100m, Switzerland 2700-3100m, Italian [/font][/size][size=4][font=arial]Alps 3100m-3300m, Austria 2700m-3100m (All North to South)[/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial]More general precipitation into the evening for Austria.[/font][/size]
[attachment=168204:17 Apr Alps.JPG]
[size=4][font=arial][b]18 April and 19 April[/b][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial]PA this stage, looking mostly dry after any initial precipitation moves away, perhaps tuning less mild from the NE for a time, but staying generally on the mild/warm side. [/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial][attachment=168203:18 Apr Alps.JPG]
[attachment=168202:19 Apr Alps.JPG][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial]Very much looking as if Spring is on the way, a major thaw seems likely this week, with any lowers resorts still open taking a pounding. However it has been a great season and all things must eventually come to an end. [/font][/size]Next week will see the final skiing forecast blog of the season.
As we move slowly towards the end of Winter 2012-13, I will continue to do blogs on the 5th, 12th and 19th of April, However they will be slightly shorter than previously and concentrate more on the specific Alps weather rather than the synoptic charts.
[b]Alps Condition[/b]
As we move into April, it is natural that we will see spring snow conditions especially over lower slope. Into the next week, and height is very much important, moderate rainfall is possible this week on lower slopes but snowfall expected from mid slopes upwards.
High pressure over Greenland with low pressure over the Atlantic and over much of Europe with low pressure cells over Western Russia and Central Italy, feeding cold NE winds over the Alps.
Not much change to start the weekend but low pressure attempts to push in from the South West by Sunday, but still a cold NE flow over the Alps.
By Monday Low pressure has nudged in over Southern parts of the UK, on a low pressure system stretching way out into the Atlantic, wind direction switching to more of a SW flow over the Alps, and turning mode unsettled as it does , temps slowly rising over the Alps.
[attachment=167787:8 Apr.JPG]
Low Pressure moving east across Northern and Central parts of Europe with some quite unsettled conditions over the Alps, with moderate snowfallws over high slopes.
[attachment=167786:10 Apr.JPG]
Towards next weekend signs of Tropical Maritime flow setting up with High Pressure over Central Europe with a dreaded Bartlettesque style setup, with mild conditions set to continue well into next weekend.
[attachment=167785:12 Apr.JPG]
[b]Alps Detail[/b]
[b]Sat 6 Apr[/b]
Any overnight precipitation tending to fade away quite quickly by morning. However showers again tending to develop during the afternoon for Southern parts o f the Alps as far north as Central Austria and Switzerland. A north South split in the temperatures, Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 1200m-1400m, French Alps 1400-2000m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1400-2100m (NW to S), Italian Alps 1800m-2000m, SW Austria 1600m-2000m, NE Austria 600m-800m
[attachment=167769:6 Apr Alps.JPG]
[b]Sun 7 Apr[/b]
A few showers overnight these tending to concentrate in Eastern areas by morning, more especially for Western Austria and SE Germany, this pattern continuing into the afternoon, some showers possibly anywhere for Eastern areas but drying away everywhere by mid evening. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 1000m-1400m, French Alps 1400-2000m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1300-2000m (NW to S), Italian Alps 1600m-2000m, SW Austria 1600m-1800m, NE Austria 600m-800m
[attachment=167768:7 Apr Alps.JPG]
[b]Mon 8 Apr[/b]
A cold start, dry generally but some precipitation over Western Italy, fringing France and Switzerland, dry elsewhere, the precipitation tending to become quite heavy and widespread by afternoon extending into Western Germany, the far west of Austria, the French Alps, Switzerland and the western half of Italy. This continuing all through the evening and overnight and only slowly dying out from the west by morning with some moderate snowfalls possible to reasonable levels. (10-15cm in places)
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 1200m-1700m, French Alps 1500-1900m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1500-1800m (NW to S), Italian Alps 1400m-1800m, Austria 1200m-1800m (NE to SW)
[attachment=167767:8 Apr Alps.JPG]
[b]Tue 9 Apr[/b]
Some precipitation over Central Alps in the morning, this fading away has another areas of precipitation edges in from the west. This giving heavy precipitation for France and Switzerland initially but spreading eastwards so that by afternoon. Heavy precipitation covers much of the Alps with the exception of Austria where it is likely to remain dry. However by the evening, some precipitaion is possibly ever over Austria. Again decent snowfall accumulation possible.
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 1700m-1800m, French Alps 1500-1800m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1500-1800m (NW to S), Italian Alps 1600m-1800m, Austria 1700m-1900m (NE to SW)
[attachment=167766:9 Apr Alps.JPG]
[b]Wed 10 Apr[/b]
Again precipitation continues over the Alps overnight, this time more concentrated in the Central belt, but tending to become widespread by afternoon but not as heavy as previous days.
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 1200m-1400m, French Alps 1400-1800m, Switzerland 1300-1900m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1800m-2000m, Austria 1500m-1800m (NE to SW)
[attachment=167765:10 Apr Alps.JPG]
[b]11 April[/b] [b]and 12 April[/b]
At this stage the indications of the mostly unsettled start to the week may come to an end as it set to turn much drier from the west. Turning progressively milder though with freezing level by Friday 2000m in the East and 2500m in the west.
[b]Summary[/b]
Altitude is often very important in Skiing but never so much as this week, many resorts and lower slopes may well see an abundance of rain, with 20-30cm of snow possibly for slopes, say about 1600m, however signs towards next weekend of Spring well and truly arriving in the Alps with high Freezing levels, however to be fair it will be Mid April by then.
Some fresh snow over the past week, have once gain improved snow conditions, as we now coming to the latter part of the season, spring snow is becoming an issue into the afternoon with slushy conditions on lower slops later in the day.
[b]Synoptic Summary[/b]
Breaking with tradition I’ll start this week with where we were at the time of the last blog, on Saturday (23[sup]rd[/sup] March)
-------------------
Extensive Northern Blocking pattern at the moment with a Greenland High at 1056mb, with 1040mb right the way through to Norway, feeding bitter air over Eastern Scandinavia and into Eastern Europe. And westwards over parts of Northern Britain, this general pattern never really changes with the colder air covering all of the UK from around Monday to Friday.
Today also sees a low pressure system centred to the South West of the UK, which has caused very heavy snowfall over Central parts of the UK and heavy rainfall for more southern areas (where it has been milder with SW winds). South Easterly winds are in place for the Alps, which never seems to tap into the coldest air this week, and with the coldest air the further north and East you go. However there is generally low pressure, which is the reason for the showers, which tend to develop more especially into the afternoon.
--------------------------------------
The general theme of the weather has not really moved away that much from last week,
Currently there is low pressure to the West and South West of the UK (964mb) over the Atlantic, High Pressure over Greenland (1032mb) with low pressure over Svalbard and N Scandinavia, with High Pressure over Russia, with the UK and much of mainland Europe with low pressure in between but generally cool/cold Easterly winds. This has kept the very cold for the time of year conditions for the past number of weeks, the Alps has seen close to average temps, never quite seeing the coldest air, but the mildest weather to the far SW of Europe also being kept in bay.
[attachment=167262:29 Mar ACT.JPG]
As has been the case over the past few weeks any changers to the weather pattern are slow. Remaining on the cold side with a ridge developing over the UK (1016mb) but this seems enough to keep low pressure away to the SW, at the moment the Atlantic Jet seems very weak. For the Alps, A NE feed on the SE flank of the HP ridge, and colder winds associated with low pressure over Italy, cold being some snowy weather here.
[attachment=167258:30 Mar.JPG]
[size=4]By Monday, again not that much change with the ridge now over northern parts of the UK, with low pressure remaining to the west of the UK, as it seems to set to do all week. A cool E/SE flow is expected over more southern parts, of the UK and a cool
Easterly flow over the Alps, with the coldest air always for the Northern Alps this week. [/size]
[size=4][attachment=167259:1 Apr.JPG]
By midweek the ridge builds more into Southern Scandinavia with an easterly feed with an easterly feed re-establishing itself over the UK and the Alps,
[attachment=167260:3 Apr.JPG]
The general pattern remains until the weekend with the high pressure further west again with a NE flow over the UK and the Alps.[/size]
[size=4][attachment=167261:5 Apr.JPG]
[b]Alps Detail [/b][/size]
[size=4][b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Sat 30 March[/font][/b][/size]
[size=4][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Early Precipitation over northern parts of the Alps, tending to fade as more general precipitation pushes up from the south. By early evening , this covering the French Alps, Switzerland, Southern Germany and most of Austria, however the heaviest of any precipitation for Italy and associated border parts of France, Italy and Switzerland. This continuing into the early hours and concentrating more over Austria, and Eastern Germany and Italy. [/font]
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 1200m-1400m, French Alps 1400-1800m, Switzerland 1400-2100m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1600m-2000m, Austria 900m-2000m (NE to SW)[/size]
[size=4][attachment=167268:30 Mar Alps.JPG][/size]
[size=4][b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Sun 31 March[/font][/b][/size]
[size=4][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Moderate or heavy precipitation over eastern parts of the Alps for the morning, drier over France and Switzerland and over Western parts of Germany and Italy. Slowly through the day precipitation amounts fading but still moderate in eastern area during the afternoon. As temps fall, much of the precipitation will fall as snow. [/font]
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 600m-800m, French Alps 1000-1600m (NW to SE), Switzerland 700-1600m (N to S), Italian Alps 1400m-1600m (E to W), Austria 400m-1200m (NE to SW)..[/size]
[size=4][attachment=167269:31 Mar Alps.JPG][/size]
[size=4][size=4][b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Mon 1 April [/font][/b][/size][/size]
[size=4][font=Calibri","sans-serif]A very cold morning, with freezing levels down to sea level for many Central and Northern Alpine areas. Drier than over the weekend, with only a few showers developing into the afternoon. [/font]
Freezing Level (3pm) – a bit milder than Sunday for S and more especially SW areas- Southern Germany 700-1000m (E to W), French Alps 1800-2000m (NW to SE), Switzerland 800-2000m (N to SW), Italian Alps 1400-2000m (E to W), Austria 400m-1600m (NE to SW).[/size]
[size=4][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Dry again to start, but precipitation developing over Italy pushing North and some moderate showers are possible during the afternoon for France, Switzerland and especially Austria and Italy. [/font]
Freezing Level (3pm) – a bit milder again - Southern Germany 1000-1200m (E to W), French Alps 1800-2000m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1200-2000m (N to S), Italian Alps 1800-2000m (E to W), Austria 900m-1900m (NE to SW).
[attachment=167266:2 Apr Alps.JPG][/size]
[size=4][b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Wed 3 April[/font][/b] [/size]
[size=4]A west east split on terms of precipitation on Wednesday largely dry in the west, although the odd showers cannot be ruled out, however further east, more general precipitation, falling as snow to at least mid slopes level.
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 1000-1200m (N to S), French Alps 1600-2000m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1100-2000m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1800-2000m, Austria 600m-1600m (NE to SW).[/size]
[size=4][attachment=167265:3 Apr Alps.JPG][/size]
[size=4][b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]4 April[/font][/b] [b][font=Calibri","sans-serif]and 5 April[/font][/b][/size]
[size=4][font=Calibri","sans-serif]Perhaps more in the way of general precipitation in the Far East of Austria to start Thursday, but apart from this mostly dry early and late, but with showers developing in the afternoon generally. [/font][/size]
[size=4]At this stage, tuning unsettled from the South West, with some heavy precipitation edging in for Western areas on the Thursday and this moving into the east for the Friday, but a lot of uncertainty this far out.[/size]
[size=4]Freezing levels tending to rise on both Thursday and Friday. [/size]
[size=4]Friday Freezing Level (3pm) - Southern Germany 1000-1800m (E to W), French Alps 2000-2200m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1800-2200m (N to S), Italian Alps 1800-2200m (E to W), Austria 800m-2200m (NE to SW)[/size]
[size=4][attachment=167264:4 Apr Alps.JPG]
[attachment=167263:5 Apr Alps.JPG][/size]
[b]Summary[/b]
The general pattern this week seems set, winds from a general easterly direction, moderate precipitation over the weekend, showers thereafter, more especially into the afternoon, and always coldest the further North and North East east you go. However the exact wind flow could make a big difference in terms of on the ground temps.
Another good week for the Alps with further fresh snow and low temperatures keeping the snow in good conditions.
[size=4][b]Synoptic Patterns [/b] [/size]
[size=4]Extensive Northern Blocking pattern at the moment with a Greenland High at 1056mb, with 1040mb right the way through to Norway, feeding bitter air over Eastern Scandinavia and into Eastern Europe. And westwards over parts of Northern Britain, this general pattern never really changes with the colder air covering all of the UK from around Monday to Friday. [/size]
[size=4]Today also sees. a low pressure system centred to the South West of the UK, which has caused very heavy snowfall over Central parts of the UK and heavy rainfall for more southern areas (where it has been milder with SW winds). South Easterly winds are in place for the Alps, which never seems to tap into the coldest air this week, and with the coldest air the further north and East you go. However there is generally low pressure, which is the reason for the showers, which tend to develop more especially into the afternoon.[/size]
[size=4][attachment=166315:23 Mar.JPG][/size]
[size=4]By Monday, High pressure remains dominant over Northern latitudes with an easterly flow over northern mainland Europe and over the UK, feeding in unseasonably cold air. [/size]
[size=4][attachment=166314:25 Mar.JPG][/size]
[size=4]By midweek, the general pattern remains in place for, with easterly winds all the way from Western Russia all the way to Canada, classic reverse zonality. Bitterly cold air over the UK, cool over the alps, again the coldest air reserve for the far NE of the Alps, more especially SE Germany, and NE Austria. [/size]
[size=4][attachment=166313:27 Mar.JPG][/size]
[size=4]Towards the weekend signs that low pressure will attempt to push in over the UK form the SW (more especially from the GFS model), but this is not really supported by the other models. For the Alps, GFS forecasts low pressure pushing in from Franc and Spain and pushing east across the Alps bring precipitation Thursday/Friday. [/size]
[size=4][attachment=166312:29 Mar.JPG]
[b]Alps Detail[/b]
[b]Sat 23 March[/b]
Some precipitation to start the day over the far west but this largely dying out during the afternoon. Conversely morning showers over Southern Switzerland, becoming more widespread for The French Alps, parts of Northern Italy, SW Austria and continuing for Southern Switzerland.
Not for the first time a North East South West split in the temperature profile, much colder the further North East you go. Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 600m-1800m (E to W), French Alps 1800-2100m, Switzerland 1800-2100m, Italian Alps 1500m-2100m (E to W), Austria 400m-2100m (NE to SW), with in each case the coldest of the air reserved for the far east of the respective countries.
[attachment=166322:23 Mar Alps.JPG]
[b]Sun 24 March[/b]
A North South Split over the Alps to start the day, dry for Germany, and for Central and Northern parts of both Austria and Switzerland further south though some precipitation fringing Southern areas of Austria and Switzerland into the French Alps with widespread precipitation for Northern Italy. Not much changing in the pattern through the day, with some large precipitation totals around the Milan area, with some moderate precipitation into S Switzerland especially around Zermatt.
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 600m-1800m (E to W), French Alps 1800-2100m, Switzerland 1800-2100m, Italian Alps 1400m-1800m (E to W), Austria 400m-1800m (NE to SW), with the colder air now covering a greater area in SE Germany and E Austria.
[attachment=166321:24 Mar Alps.JPG]
[b]Mon 25 March[/b]
More of a messy picture is forecast for Monday, colder air is digging in for Germany from the North bring some precipitation here, precipitation also continuing for southern parts of the Alps during the morning. During the afternoon this squeezing, so precipitation possible just about anywhere, but still concentrated more over southern areas.
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 600-1000m (E to W), French Alps 1300-1800m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1000-2000m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1200-2000m (E to W), Austria 400m-2000m (NE to SW).
[attachment=166320:25 Mar Alps.JPG]
[b]Tue 26 March[/b]
More general precipitation over the Alps to start Tuesday, the Austria Switzerland border the areas with the heaviest bursts, this continuing through the day, but gradually turning drier over Switzerland.
Colder than recently with Freezing Levels (3pm) Southern Germany 400-800m, French Alps 1200-1800m (NW to SE), Switzerland 800-1800m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1000-1800m (E to W), Austria 400m-1400m (NE to SW).
[attachment=166319:26 Mar Alps.JPG]
[b]Wed 27 March[/b]
The precipitation continuing overnight from Austria and falling widely as snow, drying up by morning, but afternoon showers tending to brew up once again, with southern areas the most likely to catch one.
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 800-1600m (N to S), French Alps 1800-2100m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1600-1800m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1200-1400m, Austria 400m-1800m (NE to SW).
[attachment=166318:27 Mar Alps.JPG]
[b]28 March and 29 March [/b]
At this stage, tuning unsettled from the South West, with some heavy precipitation edging in for Western areas on the Thursday and this moving into the east for the Friday, but a lot of uncertainty this far out.
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]After recent milder temperatures and spring snow conditions there has been a fall in temps over recent days, and with it some fresh snowfalls which have again created great snow conditions.
For much of the week, pressure over the Alps will be low, but with little variation in pressure, so light winds, and this should mean some hefty showers may develop more especially in the afternoon. Turning colder later in the week as winds turn round more to the North East.[/font][/size]
[b]Synoptic Summary[/b]
This weekend starts with High Pressure to the west of the UK running into Southern Greenland, with low pressure over much of Europe, the Alps has southerly winds but the Returning Polar Maritime air mass means 850Hpa temps around zero.
[attachment=164667:16 Mar.JPG]
The trend for next week is for pressure to build very strongly over Greenland and right the way through Northern Europe, reaching 1060mb over Greenland, and 1040mb Svalbard to Norway by mid next week. Low pressure remains over much of North West mainland Europe and over the Alps, with 850HPa temps generally remaining around zero.
[attachment=164668:18 Mar.JPG]
[attachment=164669:20 Mar.JPG]
[attachment=164671:22 Mar.JPG]
These generally cold conditions combined with low pressure gives the chance of further snow more especially over higher slopes.
A bitterly cold start to the weekend with freezing levels down to Sea Level. Dry for most places during the day, although some patchy precipitation into western areas by late evening.
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 500m-1300m (E to W), French Alps 1400-1600m, Switzerland 1000-1600m, Italian Alps 600m-1200m, Austria 400m-1400m (E to W)
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Dry over Eastern areas, but some patchy precipitation in some western areas continuing overnight heaviest of Italy and Switzerland border, precipitation tending to build during the day to become heavy over Eastern France, Western Germany, parts of Switzerland and Northern Italy by midnight.
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 600-1800m (E to W), French Alps 1200-1600m, Switzerland 8000-1800m (S to N), Italian Alps 800-1200m, Austria 400m-1400m (NE to SW)[/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Heavy precipitation overnight and into the morning for much of Northern Italy, the French Alps and also fringing SW Germany, W and S Switzerland and parts of Southern Austria. During the day the main area of precipitation moving East over Northern Italy, in places with Northern Italy and with some heavy precipitation also for southern Switzerland and Austria, by evening the eastward [progression continuing but with some precipitation possible quite widely across the Alps. Some appreciable snowfall possible during the day, possibly 15-20mm above around 1200m in Central Northern Italy and SE Switzerland mostly likely spots at the moment.
Freezing Level (3pm) Southern Germany 600-1600m ( W to E, 2100m far East) French Alps 900-1300m (NW to SE), Switzerland 600-1500m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 900-1500m, Austria 900m (far E), 1500-1800m generally.
Precipitation continuing overnight largely falling as snow, this generally continuing during the day, snow generally above 1000m, and closer to 500-600 for Northern and Western areas.
Colder than recently with Freezing Levels (3pm) Southern Germany 700-1100m, French Alps 700-1200m (NW to SE), Switzerland 700-1300m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1100-1300m, Austria 700m-1300m (NE to SW).
[attachment=164653:19 Mar Alps.JPG] [/font][/size]
Bitterly cold overnight, and dry to start in most areas however, some snow (above 500m) is likely in some western areas. During the afternoon, some showers popping up again quite widely but always with the chance of some heavier precipitation towards the France Switzerland border.
Freezing Level (noon) Southern Germany 800-1100m, French Alps 900-1200m (NW to SE), Switzerland 900-1200m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1100-1300m, Austria 1200-1400m
[attachment=164652:20 Mar Alps.JPG][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]21 March and 22 March [/b]
Looking cold to start on Thursday with some precipitation in more Northern areas, this should largely fall as snow, perhaps a bit milder weather spreading in from the west on Friday.
[attachment=164651:21 Mar Alps.JPG]
[attachment=164650:22 Mar Alps.JPG][/font][/size]
[url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url] It has turned milder over the Alps, and his mean spring snow conditions, better in the morning, slushy snow into the afternoon especially on lower slopes, one bit of good news is that snow depths remain good for the time of year, due to heavy snowfalls earlier in the season.
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Low Pressure over Scandinavia, with very cold covering all of Scandinavia and North Eastern Europe with High Pressure in Greenland (1040mb), through to Iceland and to the North of the UK. Further south low pressure over mainland Europe and rather mild for most areas apart from the NE, a deep area of low pressure (976mb) to South west of UK, with East to South Easterly winds here. [/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Sun 10 March[/b][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]The low pressure to the South West of the UK moves further east, to the South West approaches of the UK and the wind direction over the UK turns do to more of an Easterly feeding in colder winds from Scandinavia, more especially more Northern parts initially. Low Pressure further south so remaining mild over the Alps. [/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Mon 11 March[/b][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Again High pressure over Greenland and low pressure over Scandinavia, easterly winds for the UK feeding in some very cold upper air, with a lot pressure system over the Bay of Biscay which may bring some snow over the UK on its northern edge as it moves east. Further South aver the Alps pressure around 1008mb, with the mild uppers slowly getting mixed out, some sharp showers possible here. [/b][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Tue 12 March[/b][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]High Pressure pushes south a bit, with NE winds over the UK remaining cold here, with some snow still possible in places due to the low pressure still around the Bay of Biscay. Again no discernible isobars over the Alps, with some s[/font][/size][size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]harp showers developing again. [/font][/size]
By Wednesday the low pressure finally edges further south, with more a of a slack NE flow over the UK, generally also turning a bit colder over Northern mainland Europe including the Alps with a General North East feed. [/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]14 March and 15 March [/b][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]At this stage the Greenland High looks like building to 1060mb, with low pressure again over Scandinavia, the UK looks a bit stuck in the middle but cold or very cold, turning very cold over the Alps with a feed of very cold air from the North East. [/font][/size]
For much of the week, pressure over the Alps will be low, but with little variation in pressure, so light winds, and this should mean some hefty showers may develop more especially in the afternoon. Turning colder later in the week as winds turn round more to the North East.
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Sat 9 March[/b][/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Precipitation overnight in Central parts of the Alps, by mid morning this moves to cover Western and Central parts of Austria, SE Germany and NE Italy. This continuing into the afternoon and the heaviest of the precipitation over Central Austria moving into Eastern Austria later, generally dry over western parts of the Alps, with outbreaks of precipitation over many eastern parts of the Alps, becoming more confined to the far East of the Alps later.
Generally mild with small variations in temps. Freezing Level (noon) Southern Germany 1650-1700m, French Alps 1800-2100m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1750-2100m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1900-2100m, Austria 1750m-2000m[/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][attachment=163294:9 Mar Alps.JPG][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Sun 10 March[/b][/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Precipitation lingering over Eastern parts of Austria this fading away later, but showery precipitation popping up almost anywhere over the Alps, more especially though in Eastern parts.[b] [/b]
Freezing Level (noon) Southern Germany 1600-1750m, French Alps 1800-2100m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1700-2050m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1800-2100m, Austria 1600m-2100m (NE to SW)[/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][attachment=163295:10 Mar Alps.JPG][/font][/font][/font][/font][/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Mon 11 March[/b][/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Some overnight precipitation in places but this largely fading away by morning. Again in the afternoon, some showers developing these could occur anywhere over the Alps, and be quite heavy locally. [/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Temperatures continuing to edge slowly downwards day by day, Freezing Level (noon) Southern Germany 1600-1800m, French Alps 1700-2000m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1650-2000m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1700-2000m, Austria 1700m-2000m (NE to SW).[/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][attachment=163296:11 Mar Alps.JPG][/font][/font][/font][/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Tue 12 March[/b][/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Showers continuing overnight and some again heavy in places, further showers likely through the day, perhaps more general precipitation in Central parts of the Alps by the end of the day.
Freezing Level (noon) Southern Germany 1200-1600m, French Alps 1600-1800m (NW to SE), Switzerland 1400-1800m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1600-1800m, Austria 800m-1800m (NE to SW).[/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Turning much colder in the North East and this starting to spread south overnight. [/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][attachment=163297:12 Mar Alps.JPG][/font][/font][/font]
Overnight precipitation is forecast to continue over Austria for a few hours in the morning, before turning drier by late morning however by the afternoon turning rather again over the Alps, outbreaks of precipitation are likely to pop up anywhere, from time to time, with very little regional distribution at this stage. [/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Continuing to turn colder from the North, Freezing Level (noon) Southern Germany 600-1000m, French Alps 1400-1800m (NW to SE), Switzerland 800-1800m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 1400-1800m, Austria 400m-1700m (NE to SW).[/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][attachment=163298:13 Mar Alps.JPG][/font][/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]14 March and 15 March [/b][/font]
[font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Turning progressively colder from the north, at this stage Thursday looks rather showery, while Friday looks mostly dry but a lot can chance by then.
Continuing to turn colder from the North, Freezing Level on Fri 15 March (noon) Southern Germany 200-400m, French Alps 700-800m (NW to SE), Switzerland 400-1000m (NW to SE), Italian Alps 700-1100m, Austria 100m-900m (NE to SW).
