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J10

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  1. J10
    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Summary[/b]

    The deep freeze has been controlling the weather over the continent and the Alps for some time, however there are signs of it turning a little bit less cold and perhaps milder by the end of next week.

    Generally conditions are good, both in terms of the snow and sunshine, however it will be very cold to at least start the week.[/font][/size]

    [url="http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess="]http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=[/url]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Synoptic Summary[/b]

    Currently the Siberian High continues to dominate the weather in Europe, with very cold conditions generally, with only really the Iberian peninsula, parts of the UK and to an extent Northern Scandinavia missing out on the very cold conditions.

    Over the weekend there are signs of the high pressure finally retreating back east, however staying very cold over most of Europe and turning colder even over parts of Spain, and Northern Scandinavia, the UK remains milder as a mini HP cell bring tropical maritime air from the south west.

    For the mid of next week, a NW flow tries to push in over the UK, with a trough also pushing in through Scandinavia, cold over most of Europe, only the far west inc parts of the Uk missing out. Possibly turning a little milder over the UK from the north, As tropical maritime air feeds in around the HP.

    Towards the end of the week, this milder air over the UK, may start to feed in over the continent, including the Alps, lessening the bitterly cold spell.

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 11 Feb - [/b]0-300m generally, 400m-700m France/Italy border
    [b]Sun [/b][b]12 Feb[/b][b] - [/b]0-300m generally, 300m-700m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b][b]Mon 13[/b][/b][b] Feb[/b][b][b] - [/b][/b]0-700m generally, 700m-1100m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b][b]Tue[/b][/b][b] 14 Feb[/b][b][b] -[/b][/b] 200m-700m generally, 700m-1100m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b]Wed 15 Feb - [/b]500-800m generally, 1000m-1300m France/Italy border and S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b][b]Thur 16 Feb - [/b][/b]800-1000m North East, up to 2000m far South West
    [b][b]Fri 17 Feb -[/b][/b] 800-1000m, up to 2000m in many areas, possibly 2200m South West

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]

    [b]Sat 11 Feb to Wed 15 Feb[/b] - below freezing to sea level
    [b][b]Thur 16 Feb - [/b][/b][b][b]0-800m Generally[/b][/b]
    [b][b]Fri 17 Feb -[/b][/b] 0-400m Generally, pockets towards Italy around 1400m

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 11 Feb - [/b]Generally below -10c, pockets -15c to -18c
    [b]Sun 12 Feb - [/b]-7 to -10c South, -12 to -14c North and East
    [b]Mon 13 Feb - [/b]-4 to -5c South, -7 to -11c Northand East
    [b]Tue 14 Feb -[/b] -4 to -5c generally, -8 to -9c East
    [b]Wed 15 Feb - [/b]-2 to -4c South, -5 to -7c North and East
    [b][b]Thur 16 Feb -[/b][/b] 0 to 3c South, 0 to -3c North
    [b]Fri 17 Feb[/b] - 2 to 5c West, 0 to -2c Eastern Austria[/font][/size]

    [b]Alps Daily Weather[/b]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Sat 11 Feb -[/b] Mostly dry and Sunny, some patchy snow edging into Southern Austria and perhaps SE Switzerland from the east at times.
    [attachment=131136:10 Feb + 24 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Sun 12 Feb - [/b]Mostly dry and Sunny, the odd snow flurry possible for Southern Austria

    [attachment=131137:10 Feb + 48 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Mon 13 Feb - [/b]Mostly dry and Sunny to start, patchy snow edging into Germany initially and then spreading into N parts of both Austria and Switzerland later with the snow turning a bit heavier later for Germany.
    [attachment=131138:10 Feb + 72 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Tue 14 Feb - [/b]Overnight snow edging south, and some patchy snow possible in many places over the Alps.
    [attachment=131139:10 Feb + 96 Alps.PNG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Wed 15 Feb - [/b]Moderate snow edging south into Germany and later into most of Switzerland and Austria
    [attachment=131140:10 Feb + 120 Alps.PNG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Thur 16 Feb - [/b]After the overnight snow clears, it should be mostly dry with only light precipitation
    [attachment=131141:10 Feb +144 Alps.PNG][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Fri 17 Feb[/b] -Mostly Dry and Sunny
    [attachment=131142:10 Feb +168 Alps.PNG][/font][/size]
  2. J10
    Summary

    The main talking point about the weather in the Alps, has been the severe cold especially over Eastern areas, next week looks cold or very cold.

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=

    [b]Syntopic Progression[/b]

    The "Siberian" High now 1056mb and centred over Western Russia, has plunged bitterly cold air over most of Europe, with Severe weather conditions in many areas. As forecast a few days ago the High is starting to fall south in Western Europe with milder weather trying to push in over the UK.
    [attachment=129787:3 fEB cURRENT.PNG]

    Remaining bitterly cold over much of Europe, but milder weather pushing from the Atlanitc for western parts of the UK, bringing mostly rain for western areas, and snow for Eastern parts of the Uk.
    [attachment=129774:3 Feb + 24.PNG]

    Remaining cold over most of Europe for Sunday, but slightly milder for the UK, Western France and Scandinavia with westerly winds.
    [attachment=129777:3 Feb + 48.PNG]

    A lot of uncertainty at the moment for the rest of the week, a bit of a battleground with milder winds trying to push in from the west, but with HP remaining over Scandiviania, this is very difficult to call. The GFS scenario shown below shows the cold air pushing back over the UK for the latter part of the week.
    [attachment=129783:3 Feb +72.PNG] [attachment=129785:3 Feb +96.PNG] [attachment=129780:3 Feb + 120.PNG]
    [attachment=129782:3 Feb + 144.PNG] [attachment=129786:3 Feb +168.PNG]

    In terms of the Alps though, it is looking very likely that condtions will be very settled and also cold or very cold.


    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 4 Feb - [/b]Sea level generally, 0-400m around France/Italy border
    [b]Sun [/b][b]5 Feb[/b][b] - [/b]Sea level generally, 200m-600m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b][b]Mon [/b][/b][b]6 Feb[/b][b][b] -[/b][/b]Sea level generally, 200m-600m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b][b]Tue[/b][/b][b] 7 Feb[/b][b][b] -[/b][/b]Sea level generally, 200m-600m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b]Wed 8 Feb - [/b]0-500m generally, 700m-1000m France/Italy border and 1100-1300m S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b][b]Thur 9 Feb - [/b][/b]0-600m generally, 700m-1400m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria
    [b][b]Fri 10 Feb -[/b][/b]0-600m generally, 700m-1400m France/Italy border, S Switzerland, SW Austria

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
    [b]To Sea Level throughout the period, with temps set to fall below -20c over some parts of the Alps, every night for the next week.[/b]

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 4 Feb[/b][b] - [/b][b]-9 to -11c South, -16 to -19c North[/b]
    [b]Sun [/b][b]5 Feb[/b][b] - [/b][b]-6 to -9c South and West, -14 to -19c North[/b] and East
    [b][b]Mon [/b][/b][b]6 Feb[/b][b] - [/b][b]-6 to -9c South and West, -15 to -19c North[/b] and East
    [b][b]Tue[/b][/b][b] 7 Feb[/b][b] -[/b] [b]-[/b][b]5 to -9c South, -12 to -15c North[/b]
    [b]Wed 8 Feb - -2 to -6c [/b]Some Central areas, sub -10c elsewhere
    [b]Thur 9 Feb -[/b] [b]-1 to -5c [/b]Some Central areas, -7 to -9c elsewhere
    [b]Fri 10 Feb[/b] -[b] -1 to -4c [/b]Some Central areas, sub -5 to -9c elsewhere
    The central areas mentioned above tend to relate to a small area of the far SE of Switzerland and SW Austria

    [b]Sat 4 Feb -[/b] Mostly dry and Sunny, some patchy snow edging into Austria from the east at times.
    [b]Sun [/b][b]5 Feb[/b][b] - [/b]Mostly dry and Sunny, some patchy snow edging into Austria from the east at times.
    [b][b]Mon [/b][/b][b]6 Feb[/b][b] - [/b]Mostly dry and Sunny
    [b][b]Tue[/b][/b][b] 7 Feb[/b][b] - [/b]Mostly Dry and sunny, some light to moderate snow at times for Austria
    [b]Wed 8 Feb[/b][b], [/b][b]Thur 9 Feb[/b][b], [/b][b]Fri 10 Feb[/b] -[b] Mostly Dry and Sunny[/b]

    [attachment=129790:3 Feb +24 Alps.PNG]
    [attachment=129776:3 Feb + 48 Alps.PNG]
    [attachment=129778:3 Feb + 72 Alps.PNG]
    [attachment=129784:3 Feb +96 Alps.PNG]
    [attachment=129779:3 Feb + 120 Alps.PNG]
    [attachment=129781:3 Feb + 144 Alps.PNG]
    [attachment=129789:3 Feb + 168 Alps.PNG]
  3. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    Conditions continue to be very good or very good across the Alps after a lot of snow this winter, and things have generally settled down over recent days.


    Further snowfall is also likely in western areas over the next few days, however it is set to turn very cold over the Alps next week, initially in eastern areas, but spreading across all parts later. Some mountain resorts struggling to get above -10c by day, and falling below -25c by night.


    [b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]

    The Azores High has ridged slightly to the NE, and with a trough over the UK, there are cool NW winds and low pressure. Low Pressure also over Greenland and the North Atlantic, Generally High pressure over Europe, with a massive 1056mb High Pressure system centered over NW Russia.

    The scene has been set for a while now and the big question has been will this High pressure give Easterly winds and cold air over the UK.
    This is the answer from GFS 12Hz run on Friday 27th Jan.
    [attachment=128434:27 Jan Current.JPG]

    Saturday sees the Azores High start to ridge further NE and the "Russian High" moves ever further westwards, both towards the UK. Cool settled conditions over the UK, Very Cold over Scandinavia, cold over much of Europe.

    [attachment=128427:27 Jan +24.JPG]

    Remaining cold over much of Europe, with an easterly flow courtesy of the dominating High pressure, now centered over Eastern Scandinavia, turning cold over Eastern parts of the UK as a Easterly flow sets in, however rain tries to edge in from the west with milder conditions.
    [attachment=128428:27 Jan +48.JPG]

    By Monday, the GFS now suggests that the warm front to the west will stall and retreat back westwards, with the Azores High also pushing away to the SW, this (if it happens) would allow a cold easterly flow to push over the UK, already it is cold over most of Europe apart from the far south.
    [attachment=128429:27 Jan +72.JPG]

    The High pressure still very much in charge with E to SE winds over the UK, very cold over much of Europe, but cool upper air over the UK, rather than cold, as the very cold air source gets moderated. However bitterly cold air building up to the East.
    [attachment=128430:27 Jan +96.JPG]

    There is huge uncertainty at the moment as to the end of next week, but GFS current suggests that extremely cold air floods westwards across much of Europe and starting to feed over the UK, with sub -10c temps at 850HPa pushing in. But we know how quickly the models can change.

    [attachment=128431:27 Jan +120.JPG] [attachment=128432:27 Jan +144.JPG] [attachment=128433:27 Jan +168.JPG]

    In the above the Alps have not been mentioned in summary these is less doubt here it is likely to be cold or very cold with an easterly flow easily established.

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 28 Jan - [/b]200m-500m (NE Austria), 600m-1000m generally, 1200m to 1400m (E Switzerland, SW Austria)
    [b]Sun 29 Jan - [/b]200m-600m quite widely, 1000m-1200m S Switzerland into W Austria
    [b][b]Mon 30 Jan - [/b][/b]200m-600m quite widely, 1000m-1200m French Alps, S Switzerland, into W Austria
    [b][b]Tue 31 Jan - [/b][/b]0m-600m quite widely, 700-900m French Alps, S Switzerland, into W Austria
    [b]Wed 1 Feb - [/b]0m-600m quite widely, 700-1100m locally French Alps, S Switzerland, into W Austria
    [b][b]Thur 2 Feb - [/b][/b]0m-200m quite widely, 500-700m locally French Alps, S Switzerland, into W Austria
    [b][b]Fri 3 Feb -[/b][/b] 0m-200m quite widely, 400-700m locally French Alps, S Switzerland, into W Austria

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
    [b]Sat 28 Jan - [/b]0m-200m (East), 400m-800m elsewhere
    [b][b]Sun 29 Jan - [/b][/b]0m-200m (North and East), 300m-700m elsewhere
    [b]Mon 30 Jan - [/b]0-200m generally, pockets up to 500m.
    [b]Tue 31 Jan - [/b]0-200m generally, pockets up to 500m.
    [b]Wed 1 Feb - [/b]0-100m
    [b][b]Thur 2 Feb - [/b][/b]0-100m
    [b][b]Fri 3 Feb -[/b][/b]Sea Level

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 28 Jan - [/b]-3 to -5c generally. -6 to -7c in E Austria
    [b]Sun 29 Jan - [/b]Some Central areas -1 to -3c, -4 to -5c generally, -8 to -9c in E Austria
    [b]Mon 30. Jan - [/b]Some Central areas -1 to -3c, -4 to -5c generally, -7 to -10c in E Austria
    [b]Tue 31 Jan -[/b] Some Central areas -2 to -4c, -5c generally, -10 to -13c in E Austria, -10c in W Italy
    [b]Wed 1 Feb - [/b]Some Central areas -3 to -5c, -7 to -8c generally, -10 to -13c in E Austria
    [b]Thur 2 Feb -[/b] Some Central areas -5 to -7c, -8 to -10c generally, -13 to -16c in E Austria
    [b]Fri 3 Feb[/b] -Some Central areas -5 to -7c, -8 to -11c generally, -13 to -18c in E Austria
    The central areas mentioned above tend to relate to a small area of the far SE of Switzerland and SW Austria

    [b]Sat 28 Jan[/b]
    Some moderate precipitation during the morning for much of Switzerland into W Italy and the French Alps and Western Italy. (SL 800m). HTi not moving that much and turning heavier later for the French Alps and Western Italy, turning a bit lighter for Austria (SL 800-1000m). It should be drier generally further east. However the precipitation continuing overnight especially heavy on the French Italian border. (SL 500m max)
    [attachment=128445:27 Jan + 24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Sun 29 Jan[/b]
    Dry over the east of the Alps, some precipitation over S Switzerland, but the heaviest snow (to low levels) remaining over France and Italy. This should pretty much last all day, only slowing fading away by evening,
    [attachment=128444:27 Jan +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Mon 30 Jan[/b]
    Mostly dry and bright but a few showers outbreaks likely over western parts during the afternoon, Snow Level around 1000m.
    [attachment=128443:27 Jan +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tue 31 Jan[/b]
    Mostly dry over the Alps, but heavy precipitation starting to edge form the SW for Italy later in the day.
    [attachment=128442:27 Jan +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wed 1 Feb to Fri 3 Feb[/b]

    Turning extremely cold especially over Austria, there will be occasional snow flurries over these days, but detail this far out is very difficult to pinpoint exactly where.
    [attachment=128441:27 Jan +120 Alps.JPG] [attachment=128440:27 Jan +144 Alps.JPG] [attachment=128439:27 Jan +168 Alps.JPG]
  4. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    Conditions continue to be very good acorss the Alps after a lot of snow this winter, despite rather mixed weather over the past few days.
    [url="http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess="]http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=[/url]

    Further snowfall is also likely in many places for the next few days, before things shouled settled down agin around midweek, and it slowly turning midler from the west.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/news/story.aspx?storyID=8473"]http://www.skiclub.c...px?storyID=8473[/url] <- Further Snow expected across the Alps

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]

    [b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]

    Currently the main players in the synoptic pattern is the Azores High which as so often this winter is displaced further north and east than normal (1035-1040mb), centered to the west of Northern Spain, but influencing conditions far further north including the UK with a WNW flow of winds. The Russian high remains in play around 1050mb. There is low Pressure from the south of Greenland, through Iceland and into Eastern Europe. The Polar Vortex is situated further west than has been the case so far this winter, allowing slightly higher pressure in the Greenland area.
    [attachment=127768:20 Jan Current.JPG]

    Not much synoptic change by tomorrow, pressure though slightly building over Greenland to 1035mb, a NW flow over the UK bringing cool conditions to most areas, quite mild over most of NW Europe including the Alps, generally colder in Eastern areas and over Scandinavia .
    [attachment=127755:20 Jan +24.JPG]

    Low Pressure again for Scandinavia and N and Eastern Europe, the UK on the dividing line with the more settled and milder conditions for the South West, colder for the NE you go in the UK, which largely is the same dividing line as is the case across Europe .
    [attachment=127757:20 Jan +48.JPG]

    Monday sees the pattern move slightly further East, the Azores High ridging NE and starting to make things more settled again for the UK, but again with low pressure for much of Scandinavia and North Eastern Europe, and cool or cold here. Cool for the UK and NW Europe, rather mild over much of Southern Europe.
    [attachment=127759:20 Jan +72.JPG]

    High Pressure over Russia starting to influence conditions more over Northern Scandinavia and looking cold here. High Pressure (0130mb0 remaining over Greenland, and the Azores high feeding in milder SW winds over the UK ahead of a Low Pressure in the Atlantic looking to push over the UK. Mild again over Southern Europe, but cold over much of Central and Northern Europe including much of the Alps.

    [attachment=127761:20 Jan +96.JPG]

    The low pressure slowly moves east by Wednesday with the High Pressure to the NE starting to act as a blocking high. Remaining mild and unsettled over the NW and North Western Europe, remaining rather cold over much of Eastern Europe, with the east of the Alps, much colder than the western half.

    [attachment=127763:20 Jan +120.JPG]

    Quite a lot of uncertainty towards the weekend, with the low pressure attempting to push east, and High Pressure (Siberian High) attempting to push in from the North East. So looking cold and settled for much of Central and Eastern Europe, cool to mild over Western Europe.
    [attachment=127765:20 Jan +144.JPG] [attachment=127767:20 Jan +168.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 21 Jan - [/b][b]1800m to 2100m [/b](West), 600m to 900m (E Austria)
    [b]Sun 22 Jan - [/b]1800m to 2400m (Italy), 1200 to 1800m (Austria/Switzerland), 900m to 1200m (NE Austria)
    [b]Mon 23 Jan - [/b]1800m to 2100m (Italy), 1200 to 1500m (Austria/Switzerland), 600m to 900m (NE Austria)
    [b]Tue 24 Jan - [/b]600m to 1000m (Generally), 1200m-1600m (South and West)
    [b]Wed 25 Jan - [/b][b]1800m to 2100m [/b](West), 1000m to 1800m (E Switz and W Aust), 400m to 600m (E Austria)
    [b]Thur 26 Jan - [/b][b]1200m to 1800m [/b](Generally), 600m to 800m (far E Austria)
    [b]Fri 27 Jan -[/b] [b]1200m to 1800m [/b](Generally), 300m to 800m (far E Austria)

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
    [b]Sat 21 Jan - [/b]600m to 1200m (West), 0m to 400m (East)
    [b]Sun 22 Jan - [/b]1800m to 2400m (Italy), 1200 to 1800m (Austria/Switzerland), 600m to 900m (NE Austria + Germany)
    [b]Mon 23 Jan - [/b]0m to 600m (Generally), Milder Italy
    [b]Tue 24 Jan - [/b]0m to 600m (Generally), 1200-1500m (Italy)
    [b]Wed 25 Jan - [/b]0m to 800m (Generally), pockets higher in Italy
    [b]Thur 26 Jan -[/b] 0m to 800m (Generally), pockets higher
    [b]Fri 27 Jan[/b] - 0m to 400m (North+East), 600m to 1000m elsewhere

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 21 Jan - [/b]+2c to +4c in South West, -4c to -5c in North and East,
    [b]Sun 22 Jan - [/b]+4c to +6c in South West, -3c to -5c in North and East
    [b]Mon 23 Jan - [/b]+1c to +3c in South West, -4c to -5c in North and East
    [b]Tue 24 Jan -[/b] +1c to +2c in South West, -5c to -6c in North and East
    [b]Wed 25 Jan - [/b]+2c to +3c West, -6c to -7c in East
    [b]Thur 26 Jan -[/b] -3c to +2c West, -4c to -5c in East
    [b]Fri 27 Jan[/b] - variable

    Note in above charts South West, largely refers to W Italy.

    [b]Sat 21 Jan[/b]
    Heavy precipitation currently falling over western areas of the Alps will continue into Saturday and will be heavy over the Portes Du Soleil, Switzerland, with some precipitation also for NW Italy, W Austria and SW Germany, Snow Level generally around but closer to 600m in heavier bursts. Drier further east. By afternoon the precipitation edging further north for Switzerland, S Germany and W Austria, with the Snow level rising sharply to 1900m in the west, 1300m in Austria. The afternoon and evening seeing the precipitation continues but the heaviest of the precipitation edging across into Central Austria, SL 1100m in Austria, 1300-1600m further west.
    [attachment=127754:20 Jan +24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Sunday[/b] sees Patchy precipitation continuing overnight, moderate in central Austria, Snow levels back to around 700-1000m (north to south) with cooler conditions returning. The afternoon will generally be drier but with light precipitation continuing in Central Austria, and for Southern Germany into the evening.
    [attachment=127756:20 Jan +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Monday[/b] sees a north south split, it should be dry in the south, but patchy to moderate precipitation can be expected from the small hours right through to the afternoon for northern parts of the Alps. SL around 600-800m.
    [attachment=127758:20 Jan +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tuesday [/b]sees patchy to moderate snow from the early hours for South Germany and NW Austria, becoming more extensive across Switzerland, Southern Germany and Western Austria by noon, before becoming rather confined to Central Austria by evening, largely falling as snow down to resort level.
    [attachment=127760:20 Jan +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wednesday [/b]should be a drier day over the Alps. with a east west split, always colder in the East.
    [attachment=127762:20 Jan +120 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thursday[/b] should also be a dry day over the Alps. slightly milder generally across the Alps.
    [attachment=127764:20 Jan +144 Alps.JPG]

    Low certainty this far out for [b]Friday[/b], but a chance of a front pushing in from the west bringing heavy precipitation for France into Italy, snow to around 1000m.
    [attachment=127766:20 Jan +168 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    There could be another week of moderate snowfalls over the Alps, especially over higher slopes, but possibly turning drier and a bit milder midweek.

    Latest forecasts and snow reports:
    [url="http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess="]http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=[/url]
  5. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    After some remarkable snowfalls over the Alps over the past month, it should be a quieter week weather wise, it should be mostly dry with plenty of sunshine. There will always be a NE/SW split, always colder in Austria ,and very cold to start, and always less cold the further SW you go, but bitterly cold overnight throughout. However with all sunshine it should be a great skiing week, however there may be an avalanche risk in some areas, so beware this.

    More Details as ever on the Ski Club of GB website.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]
    [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...pages/tips_full[/url]

    And also in the Netweather SkiCentre
    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=

    It should turn slightly milder as the week progresses but a large degree of uncertainty as to the medium term outlook.

    [b]Synoptic Patterns and Progression[/b]

    As ever, my synoptic pattern is based on the GFS, this week there are some significant differences between this model and the others towards the end of the week. So there is greater uncertainty than normal for Friday etc.

    Currently we see low heights over the Northern Hemisphere, right from North America as far East as Svalbard, Low Pressure over Eastern Europe, with High Pressure over Russia, with the Azores High (1028mb) and a separate High Pressure over the UK (1028mb).

    The low pressure over Eastern Europe is feeding in cold or very cold air for all of Scandinavia and most of Eastern Europe as far west as the Alps (esp Austria). Milder over Western Europe but with winds from the continent, temps cool and settled over the UK.

    [attachment=127267:14 Jan Current.JPG]

    Little change by Sunday and Monday, however the pattern over Europe has pushed a bit further east, still very cold over much of Eastern Europe, but milder SW winds starting to push east over Western Scandinavia. Remaining mild over most of Western Europe, cool and settled over the UK with surface winds from the continent.
    [attachment=127261:14 Jan +24.JPG] [attachment=127262:14 Jan +48.JPG]

    By Tuesday, low pressure (with low heights) over much of the Northern Atlantic including Greenland and Svalbard. High Pressure now over most of Europe as the Azores High has merged with the High over the UK, This will start feeding in milder SW winds over the UK and Western Scandinavia. Remaining cold over much of Eastern Europe.

    [attachment=127263:14 Jan +72.JPG]

    The Azores High pushes further NE by Wednesday and still feeding in mild SW winds over the UK and much of Western Europe. Still the Russian High keeping it very cold here, in between pressure around 1020mb, remaining cold over Eastern Europe, but slightly milder further west, now including the Alps. Upstream some cold air starting to be pushed down into the Mid Atlantic.

    [attachment=127264:14 Jan +96.JPG]

    By Thursday, High Pressure again for the Southern Atlantic, it should turn a bit milder over Central Europe, as the previous mild air over Western Europe gets pushed a bit further east, but remaining cold over much of Eastern Europe. starting to turn cooler over the UK with a brief NW flow, and turning colder as well with low pressure bringing westerly winds over Scandinavia
    [attachment=127265:14 Jan +120.JPG]

    By Friday, there should be High Pressure to the south of the UK. GFS gives a mild flat pattern with mild air, for NW Europe including the UK and Southern Scandinavia. Cool over much of Central Europe, remaining cold over NE Europe It should also stay mild over the UK for the weekend under this pattern.

    [attachment=127266:14 Jan +144.JPG]

    ECM and most of the other models to an extent go for more of a NW flow, with a ridge over the Atlantic, up to Greenland, giving cool or cold winds over the UK, and turning it cold and unsettled over the UK for the weekend, however it should be a mild start for much of Europe on the Friday, but turning much colder over the weekend.

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 14 Jan - [/b]600m to 800m (generally), 1200m to 1600m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)
    [b]Sun 15 Jan - [/b]0 to 400m (E Austria), 600m to 1000m (Generally), 1000m to 1600m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)
    [b]Mon 16 Jan - [/b]0 to 400m (E Austria), 600m to 1000m (Generally), 1200m to 1400m (West)
    [b]Tue 17 Jan - [/b]600m to 1000m (Generally), 1000m-1600m (South and West)
    [b]Wed 18 Jan - [/b]400 to 800m (E Austria), 1000m to 1600m (Generally), 1800m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)
    [b]Thur 19 Jan - [/b]1200m to 1600m (East), 1800m to 2200m (West)
    [b]Fri 20 Jan -[/b] 600m to 1000m (North and East), 1200m to 1600m (Generally), 1800m to 2200m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
    [b]Sun 15 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally)
    [b]Mon 16 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally)
    [b]Tue 17 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally)
    [b]Wed 18 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally), pockets higher
    [b]Thur 19 Jan -[/b] 0m to 400m (Austria), around 600m generally, pockets higher
    [b]Fri 20 Jan[/b] - 0m to 400m (North), around 600m generally, pockets higher

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 14 Jan - [/b]0 to +2 in South West, -1 to -5c Central, -7 to -8c in North and East,
    [b]Sun 15 Jan - [/b]0 to -2 in South West, -2 to -6c Central -7 to -11c in North and East
    [b]Mon 16 Jan - [/b]0 to -2 in South West, -2 to -6c Central, -6 to -8c in East
    [b]Tue 17 Jan -[/b] 0 to -2 West, -2 to -6c in East
    [b]Wed 18 Jan - [/b]0 to +2 West, -1 to -3c in East
    [b]Thur 19 Jan -[/b] 0 to +4c Generally
    [b]Fri 20 Jan[/b] - 0 to +3c in South West, -4 to -6c in North East

    [b]Sat 14 / Sun 15 Jan[/b]
    Mostly dry and settled over the Alps but moderate snowfall over Central Austria during Saturday morning and afternoon. Sunday looks mostly dry apart from light snowfall over Central Austria again, very cold generally over Austria
    [attachment=127292:14 Jan +24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Mon 16 Jan[/b]
    Dry and settled with plenty of sunshine, very cold again for Austria.
    [attachment=127291:14 Jan +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tue 17 Jan[/b]
    Mostly Dry and settled again, with plenty of sunshine, however patchy snow at times for Eastern Austria.
    [attachment=127290:14 Jan +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wed 18 Jan[/b]
    Dry and settled with plenty of sunshine, not quite as cold generally.
    [attachment=127289:14 Jan +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thurs 19 Jan[/b]
    Dry to start, perhaps more general precipitation edging in from the north during the day, with heavy bursts for much of Switzerland, Germany and Austria. Low confidence in this.
    [attachment=127288:14 Jan +120 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Fri 20 Jan[/b]
    Any overnight precipitation should fade away during the day, leaving another mostly dry day.
    [attachment=127287:14 Jan +144 Alps.JPG]

    View the latest snow forecasts and reports for resorts across the world here:
    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=
  6. J10
    [b]Summary[/b]

    There has been further heavy snow across higher parts of the Alps leading to bumper conditions in many places, further snowfall is also likely in many places for the next few days. Thereafter it is likely to turn sunny and warm, great conditions for skiing, but not good, for the snow pack, so some thawing is likely and there may be an avalanche risk.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]
    [u][url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...pages/tips_full[/url][/u]

    [b]Synoptic Patterns and Progression[/b]

    As per last week we seem to be stuck in a +NAO pattern, with low pressure over the Northern Latitudes however there is slightly higher pressure around Svalbard, with High Pressure further north ,there is a temporary Surface High over Greenland with the Polar Vortex over Western Greenland and especially Canada. There is low pressure over Scandinavia feeding in cool or cold North Westerly winds over much of Central Europe (including the Alps). The Azores High has again ridged a long way North East edging into western Europe including the UK, starting to feed in mild to very mild over the UK after a cool start. In fact the pattern is so similar to Last Friday, I could have kept last Friday's summary and it wouldn't have been that far out.

    [attachment=126615:Current 6th Jan.JPG]

    Saturday and Sunday sees the pattern edge eastwards, winds temporarily turning NW wards over the UK and the NE flank of the Azores High, so turning cooler over NE parts of the UK on Saturday, but milder again by Sunday as winds turn back to move a westerly. Generally milder for NW Europe though, staying cool over Central and Northern areas of Mainland Europe including the Alps, and also staying cool or cold over Scandinavia.

    [attachment=126602:6 Jan +24.JPG] [attachment=126604:6 Jan +48.JPG]

    By Monday, the Azores High has pushes further North East to be centered just off the west coast of France, this very much giving settled conditions for the UK and NW Europe, mostly mild as well, but temporarily cooler in N Scotland. To the East, the Alps hanging on to the colder weather further east, with much of Eastern Europe cold with N to NE Winds. Low Pressure very much in control over the Northern latitudes covering Canada to Norway, cool over Southern Scandinavia with westerly winds, but turning increasingly cold over Northern Scandinavia. Very much a +NAO pattern at this stage.

    [attachment=126606:6 Jan +72.JPG]

    Tuesday sees the High Pressure build over NW Europe even further, so settled and mild over the UK and NW Europe, the Alps continues to be on edge of the cold to the east, and mild to the west. Cool over Central Europe but still cold to the East. SW winds spreading across Scandinavia, mild for the south, and remaining very cold into N and especially NE Scandinavia.
    [attachment=126608:6 Jan +96.JPG]

    Wednesday to Friday, sees the High Pressure continue to push east, with mild Tropical Maritime air now pretty much covering all of Europe, so very settled conditions for the most part. The Exception being Northern Scandinavia where some parts should be cool and it should remain cold over Northern districts.

    [attachment=126610:6 Jan +120.JPG] [attachment=126612:6 Jan +144.JPG] [attachment=126614:6 Jan +168.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 7 Jan - [/b]600m to 800m (E Austria), 1200m to 1500m (Generally)
    [b]Sun 8 Jan - [/b]800m to 1000m (North), 1000m to 1400m (South), 2000m (SW Italy)
    [b]Mon 9 Jan - [/b]800m to 1000m (North), 1000m to 1400m (South)
    [b]Tue 10 Jan - [/b]800m to 1000m (E Austria), Over 2000m (South and West), 1200m to 1500m Switzerland
    [b]Wed 11 Jan - [/b]2000m to 3000m (West), 600m to 1600 (Austria, east to west)
    [b]Thur 12 Jan - [/b]2000m to 2200m (East), 2400m to 2600m (West)
    [b]Fri 13 Jan -[/b] 2200m to 2500m (Generally)

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
    [b]Sat 7 Jan -[/b] 0 to 300m (Generally), 600m to 1200m (Italy)
    [b]Sun 8 Jan - [/b]600m to 900m (Generally), 600m to 2100m (Italy)
    [b]Mon 9 Jan - [/b]0 to 600m (Generally), 800m to 1200m (Italy)
    [b]Tue 10 Jan - [/b]300m to 900m (Generally), 1200m to 1800m (Italy)
    [b]Wed 11 Jan - [/b]0 to 300m (Generally), 300m to 1500m (Italy)
    [b]Thur 12 Jan -[/b] 0 to 600m (Generally), 600m-1200m (S parts of Austria and Switzerland),1200m to 2400m (Italy)
    [b]Fri 13 Jan[/b] - Variable

    [b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
    [b]Sat 7 Jan - [/b]0 to +3 in West, -4 to -5c in East
    [b]Sun 8 Jan - [/b]-2 to -5c (North), 0 to +2 (South), up to +5c (W Italy)
    [b]Mon 9 Jan - [/b]0 to -2 in West, -4 to -5c in East
    [b]Tue 10 Jan -[/b] 0 to -3c in West, -3 to -7c in East, +2 to +5c Italy
    [b]Wed 11 Jan - [/b]-2c (East) to +3c (West)
    [b]Thur 12 Jan -[/b]+1 to +4c Generally
    [b]Fri 13 Jan[/b] - +3 to +4c Generally

    [b]Summary[/b]

    [b]Sat [/b]After a mostly dry and settled start, precipitation is likely to edge in from the North West later, and become moderate over Switzerland an Austria by evening and the early overnight period. (SL around 1200m)
    [attachment=126601:6 Jan +24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Sun[/b] The moderate snow continuing to morning over Switzerland and Austria. The precipitation continuing through the day, the Snow Level rising to around 800m midday, but falling back to around 300-500m by evening. (20cm of fresh snow possible in places)
    [attachment=126603:6 Jan +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Mon [/b]The snow continuing overnight but slowly becoming confined to Austria by morning, finally by mid afternoon the precipitation slowly fading away (SL never above 800m, generally cool and settled over the Alps
    [attachment=126605:6 Jan +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tue [/b]Settled over much of the Alps, with a lot of sunny weather and generally turning milder the exception being Austria, where precipitation will develop again overnight, and continue until afternoon, it is likely to be concentrated towards NW Austria, SL around 800m (Max)
    [attachment=126607:6 Jan +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wed[/b] Looks Dry and Sunny, bitterly cold overnight, milder in the west by day.
    [attachment=126609:6 Jan +120 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thur and Fri[/b] Looks Dry and Sunny, mild by day, Bitterly cold overnight.
    [attachment=126611:6 Jan +144 Alps.JPG] [attachment=126613:6 Jan +168 Alps.JPG]
  7. J10
    [b]Latest Conditions [/b]

    After a very slow start to the season, there has been plentiful snow over recent weeks, the past week has been drier, but with blue skies, so great skiing conditions for those out there.

    As ever visit, the Ski Club of GB website for latest details.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]
    [u][url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...pages/tips_full[/url][/u]

    A very mixed week ahead, unsettled with periods of rain and snow, but after a brief period of turning every mild at the start of the week, it looks as if the Snow Level dropping lower towards next weekend, at least for a time.


    [b]Synoptic Patterns and Progression[/b]

    As for much of the winter we seem to be stuck in a +NAO pattern, with low pressure over the Northern Latitudes with a temporary Surface High over Greenland but with a vigorous Polar Vortex above this. There is low pressure over Scandinavia feeding in cool or cold North Westerly winds over much of Europe (including the Alps). The Azores High has ridges a long way North East edging into western Europe including the UK, starting to feed in mild to very mild over the UK after a cool start.
    [attachment=125989:Current 30th Dec.JPG]

    The general +NAO pattern will not change over the next 7 days, but within this, there will be warmer and cooler periods of weather as we will see below.

    Saturday will see the Azores High Pressure (1036mb) a bit further south, but still feeding mild SW winds of a Tropical Maritime airflow into the UK and the rest of Western Europe including the western half of the Alps. Low Pressure over Scandinavia with NW winds keeping it very cold here, and remaining cool over the rest of Eastern Europe for the time being.
    [attachment=125976:30 Dec +24.JPG]

    Sunday sees the whole pattern edge east, with the milder SW flow over most of Europe and into Southern Scandinavia, remaining cold over Northern Scandinavia and cold also for SE Europe. the Winds over the Atlantic turning more of a NW direction and colder air flooding south, so tuning cooler over the UK later.

    [attachment=125978:30 Dec +48.JPG]

    Monday sees Low Pressure again dominating the scene over the Atlantic, and now over Greenland , with winds more of a flatter westerly direction, but with the cold air pumped south into the Western Atlantic previously, this should feed moderated Polar Maritime air over the UK, so cool or cold here. Mild further east over most of mainland Europe with SW winds, but staying cold over the far north of Scandinavia and Russia.
    [attachment=125980:30 Dec +72.JPG]

    Tuesday sees things unsettled on a zonal flow, NW winds pushing into the UK , so cool or cold again, and perhaps stormy over northern areas for a time. South westerly winds over Europe (including the alps), so generally mild, but slightly cooler further north and east, remaining cold over Northern Scandinavia.
    [attachment=125982:30 Dec +96.JPG]

    Wednesday, sees more a flatter Westerly flow on top of the Azores High to the south, cool over much of Northern and Western Europe (including the Alps from yesterday's NW blast). Milder towards Southern and Eastern Europe, remaining cold over Northern Scandinavia, and turning milder again from the west for the UK, as a Tropical Maritime airflow sets in for a time.
    [attachment=125984:30 Dec +120.JPG]

    Thursday and Friday a bit uncertain at this stage, the zonal pattern remains set with a mix of cool/cold Polar Maritime air and milder Tropical Maritime air, with perhaps a more general period of Tropical Maritime air around the weekend over the UK if the Azores High Pressure pushes further North East as currently suggested.
    [attachment=125986:30 Dec +144.JPG] [attachment=125988:30 Dec +168.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]

    [b]Sat 31 Dec - [/b]2200m to 2400 (West), 1400 to 2200m (Central), 600m to 900m ( W Austria), turning milder from west
    [b]Sun 1 Jan - [/b]2400m to 2700m (South West) 1800m to 2000m W Austria
    [b]Mon 2 Jan - [/b]1700m to 2100m generally, over 2500m E Austria, turning colder from west
    [b]Tue 3 Jan - [/b]1200m to 1600m generally
    [b]Wed 4 Jan - [/b]800m to 1000m North, 1000m to 1600m Central, 1800m to 2000m Western Italy
    [b]Thur 5 Jan - [/b]800m to 1200m North, 1200m to 1500m Central, 1800m to 2400m Western Italy
    [b]Fri 6 Jan -[/b] 600m to 1000m Generally, 1000 to 1400m Western Italy

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]

    [b]Sat 31 Dec -[/b] 1600 to 1800m (Far West), 0 to 300m (East)
    [b]Sun 1 Jan - [/b]over 2000m generally, colder far Wast Austria
    [b]Mon 2 Jan - [/b]over 2000m generally, 900-1500m for South Austria and Northern Italy,
    [b]Tue 3 Jan - [/b]0 to 400m South and West (Inc Switzerland), 600-1000m elswewhere
    [b]Wed 4 Jan - [/b]1200m to 1500m generally
    [b]Thur 5 Jan -[/b] Around 1000m , pockets lower
    [b]Fri 6 Jan[/b] - 200m to 600m generally, around 800-1000m Italy

    850 Hpa Temps (noon)

    [b]Sat 31 Dec - [/b]+3 in West, 5c in East
    [b]Sun 1 Jan - [/b]+3 to +6c generally
    [b]Mon 2 Jan - [/b]+2 to +5c generally, pockets around 0c, S Austria
    [b]Tue 3 Jan -[/b] -1 to +1c generally
    [b]Wed 4 Jan - [/b]-4c (North) to +3c (South)
    [b]Thur 5 Jan - [/b]-3c (North) to 0c (South)[b],[/b] but up to +7c (W Italy)
    [b]Fri 6 Jan[/b] - -7c (North) to -3c (South)[b],[/b] but up to +1c (W Italy)

    [b]Sat 31 Dec -[/b] Patchy snow to start over Austria dying out by morning. A warm front pushing in form the west with some heavy precipitation to start over the Portes du Soleil, Western Switzerland, with more general precipitation over Western areas. (SL 2000m (W) 1000m (E). The Precipitation continuing during the day for the above areas, but also for western Austria, Southern Germany and N Italy, SL rising to 2200 (W), 1600, E Switzerland, 800m into Austria. [attachment=125975:30 Dec +24 Alps.JPG]

    The Precipitation pushing East later, for Switzerland and Austria, heaviest along the border, SL 2200m generally, 1200m far east.

    [b]Sun 1 Jan[/b] - The rain (SL 2000m) tending to push further into Austria later and drying out by afternoon and turning drier elsewhere, much milder than recently at the end of the day. [attachment=125977:30 Dec +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Mon 2 Jan[/b] - Dry to start but a cold front pushes into western areas later, precipitation over France and Switzerland, heaviest along the France Switzerland border, (SL 1200m (W), 1500 (E). This pushing east by evening with the heaviest precipitation over the Austria Switzerland border, but lighter outbreaks for the rest of Switzerland, Austria and fringing areas of Germany and Italy, SL around 1200m. [attachment=125979:30 Dec +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tue 3 Jan - [/b]The precipitation pushing SE over NE Italy overnight with the snow level around 1200m and heavy snow possible over the highest hills. Turning drier and colder elsewhere. [attachment=125981:30 Dec +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wed 4 Jan [/b]- Another band of precipitation edging down from the north, with some precipitation likely for Germany initially and then Austria and Switzerland, SL 1000-1200m, tending to die out by evening. [attachment=125983:30 Dec +120 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thur 5 Jan and Fri 6 Jan -[/b] A long way out given current trends but Thursday could be very snowy as another front pushes down from the North, and heavy precipitation, with snow to around 1000m, lasing for much of the day, for Northern areas to start, transferring into more central areas later, but confidence is low this far out. Friday at this stage, sees the precipitation dying out slowly and a cold day generally. [attachment=125985:30 Dec +144 Alps.JPG] [attachment=125987:30 Dec +168 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Summary [/b]A very mixed week with a mix of Polar Maritime and Tropical Maritime airflow, higher slopes could easily see further heavy snowfalls, and I wouldn't be surprised if some higher slopes saw over 50cm of fresh snow over the next 7 days.
  8. J10
    [b]Latest Conditions [/b]

    At the start of the season there were fears about a lack of snow for the Alps, but conditions have been transformed with some areas seeing the best skiing in recent years along with the heaviest sustained snowfall also.

    As ever visit, the Ski Club of GB website for latest details.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]
    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/news/story.aspx?storyID=8431"]http://www.skiclub.c...px?storyID=8431[/url]

    Some fantastic skiing conditions can be expected over the next week, with glorious blue skies and mild temperatures, although it may turn a little slushy at times during the afternoon midweek.

    [b]Synoptic and Progression[/b]

    The synoptic pattern which gave the snow is in the process of being replaced by a milder "Bartlett High" style pattern, this new pattern is set to say around for most of the coming week, but there will be day to day differences.

    So if we start off by looking at today's pattern, There is low pressure covering the North Atlantic all the way from USA and Canada right through to Scandinavia, with in particular a deep area of LP centered to the west of Norway (976mb). High Pressure generally further south and for Eastern Europe, with the Azores High (1036mb), on the North Eastern flank of the ridging High, there are North Westerly winds for the UK with a brief shot of cooler air, as a cold front pushes South East.

    Tuning cool over the UK, mild over much of mainland Western Europe including the Alps and most of Scandinavia, remaining cold over Eastern Europe.

    [attachment=125666:Current 23rd Dec.PNG]

    Saturday sees the Azores High (1036mb) extending North East over the UK and into NW Europe and more into a Bartlett High, so conditions turning more settled and milder here, with a Tropical Maritime flow from the South Atlantic, after a cool start. Away from Remaining cool over the Alps, milder for Central Europe and Southern Scandinavia. However colder and unsettled over Northern Scandinavia, remaining quite cold with high Pressure for Russia and the far East of Europe. .

    [attachment=125653:23 Dec +24.PNG]

    The High Pressure pushes further North East, with SW winds extending as far North East as Lithuania, so turning increasingly mild over NW Europe, cool over Northern Europe and much of Scandinavia (including the Alps). Cooler over SE Europe, with NE winds on the SE flank of the High Pressure.
    [attachment=125655:23 Dec +48.PNG]

    Monday sees the High Pressure (1040mb) continues to push further East to be centered over SE Europe, the mild advance continues, for the UK, mild for most of Northern and Western Mainland Europe (including the UK and the Alps), remaining cool in the far SE, further north, it should start to turn cold with westerly winds edging into Scandinavia and the far north of Scotland.
    [attachment=125657:23 Dec +72.PNG]

    High Pressure (1040mb) centered over Europe and mild or very mild and settled for most of Europe. Milder further north for the far north of Scotland and turning much colder over most of Scandinavia.

    [attachment=125659:23 Dec +96.PNG]

    Not much change on Wednesday, but low pressure over the UK, and turning colder for central and northern UK with a brief NW blast. remaining mild or very mild and settled over most of Europe, cold and Unsettled for Northern Scandinavia.

    [attachment=125661:23 Dec +120.PNG]

    High Pressure building over the UK (1040mb) on Thursday and on the eastern flank of the High, turning very cold with Northerly or North Westerly winds into much of Central and Eastern Europe including the Alps, remaining very cold over Scandinavia, remaining mild in the far south of Europe. Friday suggests the whole pattern pushing further east.

    [attachment=125663:23 Dec +144.PNG] [attachment=125665:23 Dec +168.PNG]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]850HPA (noon) - [/b]
    [b]Sat 24 -[/b] -5 to +1c mildest in south East, Coldest North West
    [b]Sun 25 - [/b]-6 to 0c coldest over Austria, mildest further West
    [b]Mon 26 -[/b] 0 to +5c coldest over Austria, mildest further West
    [b]Tue 27 - [/b]+4 to +6c generally
    [b]Wed 28-[/b] +3 to +6c generally
    [b]Thu 29 -[/b] -6 to +3c, coldest Germany, Mildest Italy
    [b]Fri 30 - [/b]-7 to -1c coldest Austria, Mildest South East

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon) - [/b]
    [b]Sat 24 -[/b] 800m to 1000m north West, 1600-1800m Southern Austria and Italy
    [b]Sun 25 - [/b]800m to 1000m Generally, 1200-1600m Switzerland Italy border
    [b]Mon 26 -[/b] 1500m to 1800m Austria, 1800-2400m E Switzerland to W Austria, over 3000m Far west
    [b]Tue 27 - [/b]2700 to 3000m Generally
    [b]Wed 28-[/b] 3000m Generally
    [b]Thu 29 -[/b] 600 to 800m North, 1800-2200m Italy
    [b]Fri 30 - [/b]400 to 800m North, 1200-1800 S Switzerland into Italy

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am) - [/b]

    [b]Sat 24 -[/b] 300m to 600m Austria, 1000 to 1200m Germany to Switzerland, big variation in Italy
    [b]Sun 25 - [/b]0m to 500m generally
    [b]Mon 26 -[/b] 0m to 500m generally NW, milder in parts of Italy
    [b]Tue 27 and [/b][b]Wed 28-[/b] Huge variations, 0m in places, over 2000m elsewhere
    [b]Thu 29 -[/b] 0m to 500m generally NW, milder in parts of Italy
    [b]Fri 30 - [/b]0m to 400m Generally

    [b]Sat 24 Dec - [/b]Snow (down to around 1000M) pushing into the far NW of the Alps by morning, spreading east by afternoon, to cover the French Alps, Southern Germany, Northern Italy, Switzerland and western Austria, with the heaviest precipitation on the Austria/Switzerland border, Snow Levels around 800m (North) to 1200m (South). Snow continuing during the evening before becoming confined to Austria and drying out overnight.

    [attachment=125652:23 Dec +24 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Sun 25 Dec - [/b]After a bitterly cold night, Mostly Sunny and Dry, turning milder from the west, but great skiing conditions

    [attachment=125654:23 Dec +48 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Mon 26 Dec - [/b]Apart from some light precipitation in Eastern Austria (snow above 1000m), another dry and sunny day, Freeze thaw conditions, very cold to start, much milder from the west during the day. Best skiing during the morning,

    [attachment=125656:23 Dec +72 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Tue 27 Dec and Wed 28 Dec -[/b] Dry and Sunny, cold Overnight, Very mild Daytime Best skiing during the morning,

    [attachment=125658:23 Dec +96 Alps.PNG] [attachment=125660:23 Dec +120 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Thu 29 Dec - [/b]Colder from north, some light snow into Southern Germany and then Eastern Switzerland and Western Austria, before dying out afternoon.
    [attachment=125662:23 Dec +144 Alps.PNG]

    [b]Fri 30 Dec -[/b] Mostly dry and bright, some snow into Austria during afternoon
    [attachment=125664:23 Dec +168 Alps.PNG]
  9. J10
    [b]Current Situation[/b]

    The past week has transformed the snow conditions over the Alps.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/skiresorts/lastsnowed.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...lastsnowed.aspx[/url] gives details of the heaviest new snow in the Alps.

    [b]Synoptic Charts[/b]

    [attachment=125331:17 Dec.JPG]

    Currently there is a surface High Pressure over Greenland, and a Azores High (1032mb), in between this there is a ridge of Hugh Pressure over the Atlantic to the west of the UK. This is feeding in very cold northerly winds over much of the western half of Europe including he UK and the Alps and Scandinavia.

    [attachment=125332:17 Dec +24.JPG]

    Slowly the ridge moves to the South East, as does the whole pattern, feeding in more of a NW flow over the UK, still cold, but the cold winds remaining over Western Europe.

    [attachment=125333:17 Dec +48.JPG]

    By Monday, the Greenland High has collapsed, and there is a more mobile pattern, winds more from the South West over most of Europe, but the cold air from the last cold of days still in place over Europe. (including the Alps). Turning milder over the UK, with SW winds to start, veering North Westerly later,

    [attachment=125334:17 Dec +72.JPG]

    The Azores start to become more a dominant feature thereafter, moving steadily eastward, to be centred around Northern Spain and feeding in milder Westerly or South Westerly winds over the UK, this milder air extending into the Alps for Wednesday into Thursday. Remaining colder over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, but milder air encroaching here later.

    [attachment=125335:17 Dec +96.JPG]
    [attachment=125336:17 Dec +120.JPG]

    By Friday, the Azores High may retreat again allowing cooler Polar Maritime winds over the UK from the North West, perhaps this cooler air than pushing into the Alps for the Christmas weekend, but this is still a long way off.

    [attachment=125337:17 Dec +144.JPG]

    [b]Snow Detail[/b]

    [b]850HPA (noon) - [/b]
    [b]Sat 17 -[/b] -3 to -5c generally
    [b]Sun 18 - [/b]-4 to -7c generally
    [b]Mon 19 -[/b] -3 to -7c generally, coldest towards North East
    [b]Tue 20 - [/b]-1 to -6c generally, coldest towards South East Austria
    [b]Wed 21-[/b] -1 to +2 Western Alps, -4 to -5c E Austria
    [b]Thu 22 -[/b] +1 to +2 Western Alps, +2 to +4 Central Alps, 0 to -4c Austria
    [b]Fri 23 - [/b]+2 to +4c generally, milder further south into Italy

    [b]Freezing Levels (noon) - [/b]
    [b]Sat 17 -[/b] 700m to 1000m generally, 1000m-1300m Italy
    [b]Sun 18 - [/b]700m to 900m generally, colder in pockets
    [b]Mon 19 -[/b] 300m to 600m Northern half of Switzerland and Austria, 700-900m elsewhere
    [b]Tue 20 - [/b]600m to 1000m generally, colder Eastern Austria, 1200-1400m E Switzerland and W Austria border
    [b]Wed 21-[/b] 800m to 1000m Austria and Germany, 1000m-1600m further west, rising rapidly from west later to over 2000m
    [b]Thu 22 -[/b] E Austria below 900m, generally 1800-2200m, pockets over 3000m Italian border and French Alps
    [b]Fri 23 - [/b]1600m-1800m Northern alps,rising steadily further south to 2600m -2800m

    [b]Freezing Levels (6am) - [/b]
    [b]Sun 18 - [/b]0m to 300m generally
    [b]Mon 19 -[/b] 0m to 200m generally
    [b]Tue 20 - [/b]600m to 800m French Alps and W Switzerland, 0 to 300m elsewhere
    [b]Wed 21-[/b] 600m to 1000m generally
    [b]Thu 22 -[/b] E Austria below 600m, generally 1400-1600m, pockets over 3000m parts of Italy
    [b]Fri 23 - [/b]Mild generally but with huge variation

    [b]Sat 17[/b] - Moderate snowfall seems likely for the French Alps, much of Switzerland and Western Austria. this becoming confined to Western areas later.

    [attachment=125338:17 Dec.PNG]

    [b]Sun 18 - [/b]After a bitterly cold start, a west east split, outbreaks of snow fro the French Alps, Western Switzerland and running into Southern Germany.

    [attachment=125339:17 Dec +24.PNG]

    [b]Mon 19 - [/b]Another bitterly cold start, further patchy snow is expected in western and central parts of the Alps, remaining drier to the South and East

    [attachment=125340:17 Dec +48.PNG]

    [b]Tue 20 - [/b]Dry to start in the East, but a front should push into the west early with heavy snow down to around 1000m, this extending through the day for the French Alps, Switzerland and Western Austria and Germany. At times the freezing level will rise, but most precipitation will fall above snow at resort level or higher .

    [attachment=125341:17 Dec +72.PNG]

    [b]Wed 21 - [/b]Further heavy precipitation overnight and especially into Wednesday. It is expected to effect The French Alps, Switzerland, and Western Austria, and neighbouring areas of Germany and Italy. The heaviest precipitation in Switzerland throughout, Snow level to start around 1000m, rising steadily to 2000m in Western Switzerland and France, but remaining at 1000m in Austria.

    [attachment=125342:17 Dec +96.PNG]

    [b]Thu 22[/b] - The precipitation is set to move into Austria for Thursday and turn drier elsewhere.
    [attachment=125343:17 Dec +120.PNG]
    [attachment=125344:17 Dec +144.PNG]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Very cold to start with further snow likely, especially in western areas, turning milder for a time towards the end of the next week, but big doubts remain as to the Christmas weather.
  10. J10
    [b]Current Situation[/b]

    After a very mild start to the season, there has been a great week of weather this week, with heavy snow over parts of the Alps, as ever Altitude helps but snow has fallen to resort level quite widely. The Ski Club of GB website has more details as ever on the following links.

    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/news/story.aspx?storyID=8415"]http://www.skiclub.c...px?storyID=8415[/url]
    [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/overview/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ew/default.aspx[/url]

    The current position sees a surface High Pressure over Greenland (1040mb), the remnants of yesterdays storm over Scotland is now centered over Norway giving a cold Polar Maritime NW flow over the UK, Other parts of NW Europe have a cool NW Flow, which also fringes the Alps . There is High Pressure covering the Southern Atlantic and also for Southern Europe.
    [attachment=124576:Current 9th Dec.JPG]

    [b]Synoptics[/b]

    Tomorrow sees a very quick slackening of the High Pressure over Greenland with pressure reducing to 1016mb. For the North Atlantic through to Norway, there is low pressure but with a flat pattern, with Westerly winds running all the way from America through to NE mainland Europe. High Pressure remains over the South Atlantic, but with slack High pressure over much of Southern Europe extending as far north as the Alps.

    Cool for the UK, briefly turning milder over the UK as rain and a mild sector pushes in later, Very Cold over Northern Scandinavia, generally cool or cold over the rest of Scandinavia, NE Europe, quite mild over the Alps and the remainder of Europe.

    [attachment=124563:9 Dec +24.JPG]

    Sunday sees Low Pressure over much of Northern Atlantic through to Northern Europe, with a mainly flat zonal pattern with westerly winds. High Pressure remains in control over Southern Europe. Milder for the UK, quite cool for much of Northern mainland Europe, but again mild for much of Southern Europe including the Alps, the coldest weather reserved for Northern Scandinavia.

    [attachment=124571:9 Dec +48.JPG]

    Monday sees The basic theme of low pressure to the north and Higher Pressure to the South remains, however the Azores High to the South West is further south, as a very cold North West wind pushes south off the coast of North America, further west there is a SW wind over the UK and much of Europe.

    Very cold over Northern Scandinavia, but with SW winds for the rest of Europe, generally mild, but cool for Southern Scandinavia and for the UK and the far NW of Europe for a time.

    [attachment=124565:9 Dec +72.JPG]

    Tuesday sees Low Pressure covering the area from North America to Scandinavia, with the Azores High is now tilted in a NW/SE direction as this could mean NW winds bring Polar Maritime winds over much of the Atlantic. There is deep area of low pressure centered over Scotland, and this could give very unsettled weather with very strong winds for UK, although exact detail and timings are uncertain at this moment. Remaining more settled the further south and east you go into mainland Europe.

    Most of Europe including the Alps is mild or quite mild, cool winds for the UK and much of Scandinavia, cold for Northern Scandinavia.

    [attachment=124573:9 Dec +96.JPG]

    The Synoptic pattern for Wednesday very similar, with low pressure dominating conditions over much of the Atlantic and Northern Europe, the low pressure over the UK on Tuesday moves slightly North East off the coast of Norway but still looking like strong winds over the UK.

    Cool over the UK and NW Europe strengthening over the Alps, with a polar Maritime airflow, cool for Scandinavia with a Returning Polar Maritime airflow remaining mild for Southern Europe.

    [attachment=124567:9 Dec +120.JPG]

    A lot of uncertainty after this, but at this stage, you cannot really go against the theme of low pressure to the south and Higher Pressure over Southern areas, perhaps moving further east into western mainland Europe. Possibly cool over much of Northern Europe, at this stage it looks as if the Alps will be on the milder side of the weather.

    [attachment=124575:9 Dec +144.JPG]
    [attachment=124569:9 Dec +168.JPG]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [b]0c Isotherm Daytime Max Summary[/b]
    [b]Sat[/b] 1200-1600m North, 1800-2000m elsewhere.
    [b]Sun [/b]1400-1800m generally 2000-2200m SE
    [b]Mon[/b] 1400-1800m generally, 2000-2300m E Austria
    [b]Tue[/b] 1600-1800m S Austria and N Italy over 2000m elsewhere.
    [b]Wed[/b] 1400m NW rising incrementally to 1800m SE Austria
    [b]Thur[/b] 600-800 North and West rising to 1400m SE Austria
    [b]Fri [/b]900m E Austria, up to 2200m W Alps

    [b]0c Isotherm Night Summary[/b]
    Generally quite mid overnight over the Alps with Freezing Levels around 1200-1500m however much colder on Sunday Night down to 600m in places.

    [b]850Hpa Summary [/b]

    [b]Sat[/b] Lowest at -4c in Central Germany rising steadily to +4 in Southern Switzerland.
    [b]Sun [/b]0 to +4c generally, warmest over France and Switzerland
    [b]Mon[/b] -2 to 0c over France, up to +3 or +4c over Austria.
    [b]Tue[/b] 0c over Austria, but +4 o +5 in a swathe form France , Northern Switzerland through to Germany
    [b]Wed[/b] +1 to +3c generally, turning colder from the west alter.
    [b]Thur[/b]-4 or -5 for much of Germany, France and Austria, and N Switzerland, warmer over S Switzerland, and especially Italy up to +1/+3c
    [b]Fri [/b]+3 or +4 in the west, -2 to -3c over Austria

    [b]Saturday 10th December -[/b] Heavy Precipitation to start over the Northern Alps in the early morning, for Southern Germany and the far north of Switzerland and Austria. This continuing during the day but edging south into Northern Switzerland and Austria, and the far south of Germany, Snow Levels around 1000m on the north of the front, around 1600m in the south of the front. Mostly dry elsewhere over the Alps, and any precipitation dying out during the afternoon and evening.
    [attachment=124562:9 Dec +24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Sunday 11th December -[/b] Mostly dry and settled over the Alps with some decent sunny spells. Pressure around 1016mb (W) to 1023mnb (E) with light SW winds.

    [attachment=124570:9 Dec +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Monday 12th December - [/b]Dry to start but showers developing over Italy and perhaps southern parts of Austria later. A cold front will edge into western areas of the Alps especially France during the morning and spreading east over the afternoon into Switzerland then Austria Snow levels around 1200-1500m, perhaps up to 15-20cm of snow in places. Any precipitation moving away to the East quickly during the evening.

    [attachment=124564:9 Dec +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tuesday 13th December - [/b]Mostly dry over Southern and Eastern parts of the Alps, light precipitation edging into North Western areas, and this continuing through the day before dying out during the late afternoon and early evening, Snow above around 2000m.

    [attachment=124572:9 Dec +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wednesday 14th December -[/b] Another day of a NW SE split, remaining mostly dry and bright in the SE, Precipitation again edging into the NW into the afternoon, with some heavy bursts possible especially during the afternoon, Snow above aroudn 1400m .

    [attachment=124566:9 Dec +120 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Thursday 15th December and Friday 16th December -[/b] A this stage looking colder for Thursday with periods of snow down to around 800m . Friday looks milder with rain spreading from the west.
    [attachment=124574:9 Dec +144 Alps.JPG]
    [attachment=124568:9 Dec +168 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Summary[/b]
    In a week with a very defined theme of unsettled weather over Northern Europe, very difficult to pin down the exact conditions over the Alps especially day to day. Temps will fluctuate widely especially for northern areas. the further North and West you go there will be more precipitation and it looks as if snow coverage will be increased over the higher slopes, but decrease on lower slopes as much of the precipitation will fall as rain and there will be a thawing of lying snow, due to raised temps.

    For people going on holiday this week it should be quite decent with sunny spells especially towards the south and east and not terribly cold during the day.
  11. J10
    [b]Introduction [/b]

    It remains a very disappointing start to Winter for the Alps, with very little snow for the lower slopes, However the cold overnight temperatures have meant that snow cannons have been in operation, and a large number of resorts have been able to open. However the lack of snow has meant that the opening Ski races schedule for Val D'Isere have had to be moved to Beaver Creek in North America.

    More details on snow amounts and general conditions available on at the Ski Club of Great Britain website. [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/overview/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ew/default.aspx[/url]

    Looking at the current synoptic chart, there is High Pressure (1036mb) covering the South of the Atlantic. There is low pressure over the Greenland through to Scandinavia area, with a number of separate centres. However this is generally feeding in cold or very cold Polar Maritime air for much of this region. The UK and NW mainland Europe is in between the High Pressure to the SW and the low Pressure to the NW, with a ridge of High pressure to start, before rain pushes in from the NW later in the day. The rest of Europe (including Eastern Scandinavia) mostly mild with SW winds, but remaining cold in Russia.

    [attachment=124063:Current 2nd Dec 850Hpa.png]

    [b]Synoptic Progression[/b]

    The previous blogs this winter have gone with full detail for 7 days, however accuracy of the charts after 5 days has not been that great, as a result, I'll give the general pattern only.

    Saturday sees the whole pattern move further east, Low Pressure now for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Western Europe including the UK and now the Alps. High Pressure remains for the Southern Atlantic, and SE Europe remains under High Pressure.

    Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning cooler over the UK, remaining quite mild for the Alps, the low countries and Northern France with SW winds, still cool for Scandinavia as we have a returning Polar Maritime airflow despite the SW wind direction.

    [attachment=124048:2 Dec +24.JPG]

    Sunday sees a very similar pattern, but the colder air has edged slightly further SE. A Surface High pressure has formed over Greenland above a potent Polar Vortex, feeding bitterly cold winds down from the Arctic. Low Pressure now for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Central Europe including the UK and now the Alps. High Pressure remains for the Southern Atlantic, SE Europe now has pressure around 1016-1020mb.

    Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning colder over the UK with a NW Polar Maritime airflow, with very cold air for Northern parts, cold for Southern parts of the UK, much of Northern Mainland Europe and Scandinavia. Still though rather mild for much of France, the Alps and most of Southern Europe. .

    [attachment=124050:2 Dec +48.JPG]

    Monday sees a very similar pattern, but the colder air has again edged slightly further SE. A Surface High pressure remains over Greenland (1024mb) above a potent Polar Vortex. A massive area of Low Pressure (centred west of Norway 960mb) now covers most of Europe, with very cold winds on the western side, slightly milder SW winds on its Eastern Side. for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Central Europe, High Pressure now restricted to the far SE of Europe.

    Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning colder over the UK with a NW Polar Maritime airflow, very cold air (sub -5c 850Hpa) covers the whole of the UK and parts of the low countries. Most of Northern Europe seeing cold air (sob zero 850Hpa) including progressively the Alps more detail on the snow potential to follow below), cold or very cold for the Scandinavia, with the mild air now restricted to the far south of Europe.

    [attachment=124052:2 Dec +72.JPG]

    Tuesday again sees the general pattern, low pressure for most of Europe. bringing cold or very cold air from the North West. The very cold airflow cutoff for most apart from Scandinavia, but remaining cold from most of Northern and Western parts of Europe, if anything turning colder in NE areas, as the initial cold now pushes in here.

    [attachment=124054:2 Dec +96.JPG]

    Wednesday and Thursday sees the wind direction turn round to more of westerly direction as opposed to North Westerly direction, so turning milder for the UK and much of Mainland Europe. however signs of a further blast of colder air pushing back down across the UK initially and then for most of NW Europe for Friday, so a further chance of wintry weather. Staying very cold in Scandinavia throughout, and mild over much of southern Europe.

    [attachment=124058:2 Dec +120.JPG]
    [attachment=124060:2 Dec +144.JPG]
    [attachment=124062:2 Dec +168.JPG]

    The outlook sees the potential for High pressure to build from the South West, and perhaps move back into Euro High Territory.

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]850Hpa Summary (Noon) ,Regional Detail
    Sat 3rd Dec +1 to +4 Generally
    Sun 4th Dec +2 to +7 +2/+3 Italy, +4 to +7c Generally
    Mon 5th Dec -3 to +6 -3 (North) up steadily to +6 in Italy
    Tues 6th Dec -5 to +2 -5 (Austria) up steadily to +2 in Italy
    Wed 7th Dec -5 to +4 -5 (Austria) to to +4 in Italy, generally milder though then recent days
    Thurs 8th Dec -2 to +5 Generally +1 to +4
    Fri 9th Dec -5 to +6 0 to -5 (N Alps), 0 to 3 S Austria and S Switzerland[/CODE][/font][/size]


    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]0c Isotherm Summary (6am) , Regional Detail
    Sat 3rd Dec 1400m-2200m 1400m-1600m Generally
    Sun 4th Dec 1400m-2800m 1400-2200m SE Switzerland, SW Austria, Higher elsewhere
    Mon 5th Dec 1200m-2800m 1200m (NW), 1600-1800m generally Austria/ Switzerland
    Tues 6th Dec 600m-1000m Generally, but 1000-1600m Italy
    Wed 7th Dec 200m-1400m 1000-1400 (W and W Austria), lower Eastern Austria
    Thurs 8th Dec 300m-2400m Local Variations
    Fri 9th Dec 900m-1800m Generally[/CODE][/font][/size]

    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]0c Isotherm Summary (Noon) , Regional Detail
    Sat 3rd Dec 1800m-2200m Generally
    Sun 4th Dec 1900m-2400m 2200-2400m Generally
    Mon 5th Dec 1000m-2200m 1000m (NW), 1400-1600m generally Austria/ Switzerland
    Tues 6th Dec 800m-1400m 800m (N and W), 1400m Southern Austria and S Switzerland,Italy
    Wed 7th Dec 800m-2000m 800m (NE Austria), 1000-1600m Switzerland and much of Austria
    Thurs 8th Dec 1600m-3000m 1600m (NE Austria), 3000m SE Italy
    Fri 9th Dec 800m-2600m 800m (N and W), 800-1400m Southern Austria and S Switzerland, [/CODE][/font][/size]

    [b]Saturday 3 December [/b]- Quite a lot of precipitation to start Saturday morning, especially for Eastern Switzerland and Western Austria and Central Italy. Snow level around 1400m. This tending to move away to SE Austria later in the day , before a more general frontal band of heavy precipitation moves into the NW alps by late evening. This continuing during the early hours, with the potential for moderate snowfalls for NW Switzerland, the Portes Du Soleil, and into Southern Germany above around 1900m, potentially 10 inches of snow in the Northern Portes du Soleil.

    [attachment=124047:2 Dec +24 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Sunday 4 December [/b]- The precipitation only slowly dying out during the day especially for much of the French Alps, Switzerland, the German alps, and Northern Austria. The snow level generally around 2200m without much regional variation, remaining dry over the south of the Alps. Into the evening and a cold front edges in from the north. Further heavy precipitation possible for the Portes du Soleil, Switzerland, the German Alps, and Northern Austria. Snow Level around 2000-2100m.

    [attachment=124049:2 Dec +48 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Monday 5 December [/b]- The precipitation continuing Monday morning and turning very heavy through through the Portes Du Soleil, a swathe of Switzerland including Wengen and Zermatt, and into Southern Germany and the far NW of Austria. Snow levels dropping as a cold front brings in colder Polar Maritime air, from 1800m on the front edge (to the SE) to around 1200m on the back edge. A wider area covering the France Alps, all of Switzerland the German Alps, and most of Austria, excluding the SE, will see some moderate precipitation.

    During the afternoon the precipitation will become patchier but remain in the wider area described above, Snow Level, 800 (N) - 1800m (SE), During the late evening, patchy snow will fall to resort level for Switzerland.

    [attachment=124067:2 Dec for Mon am.JPG]
    [attachment=124051:2 Dec +72 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Tuesday 6 December [/b]- The morning will see patchy snow for Germany and Northern Austria, mostly dry elsewhere, By evening, further Precipitation edging in from the west, snow down to around 1000m, moderate precipitation for the French Alps, Switzerland and the German Alps, mostly dry for Italy and Austria.
    [attachment=124053:2 Dec +96 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Wednesday 7 December [/b]- The precipitation continuing into Wednesday, and moving by morning to be centred over Switzerland and Austria, and largely dying out in Switzerland during the day with some heavy precipitation in western Austria during the day, snow level around 1200m.
    [attachment=124057:2 Dec +120 Alps.JPG]

    Thursday looks mostly dry at this stage, While Friday looks as if more snow may push down from the north associated with the colder plunge, but no point going into detail this far out.
    [attachment=124059:2 Dec +144 Alps.JPG][attachment=124061:2 Dec +168 Alps.JPG]

    [b]Summary [/b]

    For the first time in months, there looks to be a probability of moderate snowfalls down to lower slope or resort levels. By the middle of next week, 25cm of snow seems very possible widely for parts of France, and Northern parts of Switzerland across to Germany, with up to 50cm in places.

    There is also the chance of further snow towards the end of next week, however there is the possibility of a Euro High returning after this.
  12. J10
    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Introduction[/b]

    Very much a NW SE split for the weather pattern for the Atlantic and Europe on current charts. General low pressure covering Greenland and all the way across to Scandinavia, with deep low pressure off the east co[/font][/size][size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]ast of Iceland. Low Pressure for the north of the UK and westwards. However a big block of High pressure covering Russia, Eastern Scandinavia, all of mainland Europe, southern UK and right down to the Azores. Largely mild over most of Europe bar Russia, Northern Scandinavia, Iceland and briefly Northern parts of the UK.[/font][/size]

    [size=3]Last week you may recall, that I mentioned the possibility of cold weather around now unfortunately the colder weather did not make it far enough south. It is also worth remembering that towards the end of a 7 day forecast, the accuracy levels do tend to fall as time goes on. [/size]
    [size=2][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][attachment=123769:Current 25th Nov 850HPa.png][/font][/size]


    [size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][b]Synoptic Progression [/b]

    The low pressure continuing to dominate over NW Europe, again covering Greenland to Scandinavia but starting to lower pressure over the UK, especially the Northern Half, and also over much of Scandinavia. High Pressure (1032mb) remains bang on top of Central Europe.
    Generally mild in western areas with SW winds with a Bartlettesque pattern, cooler the further East you go,

    [attachment=123768:25 Nov +24.png]

    For Sunday, little change in the overall pattern, The low pressure continuing to dominate over NW Europe, again covering Greenland to Scandinavia, and with NW winds into Northern Scandinavia turning much colder here. A ridge of high pressure from the SW bringing a short draw NW to the UK briefly turning it cooler/colder here. High Pressure over much of mainland Europe (1028mb) , staying mostly mild and settled.

    [attachment=123767:25 Nov +48.png]

    Monday sees low pressure into Scandinavia and with NW winds remaining cold. Low Pressure centred over Iceland, but with high Pressure generally over Europe, with 1028mb Germany/ Poland. Winds again revert to SW over the UK, returning milder Tropical Maritime air, but with high pressure. Milder over Western Europe and the Alps, cooler into Eastern Europe associated with NW winds.

    [attachment=123766:25 Nov +72.png]
    Low Pressure for the Atlantic, and starting to edge in Western UK, High Pressure over Europe (1032mb) has shifted east to be centred over Eastern Poland. So mild and settled for much of Western Europe including the UK and the Alps,. However on the Northern and Eastern side of the High Pressure, cold or very cold for N and E Scandinavia and into Russia.

    [attachment=123765:25 Nov +96.png]

    Wednesday sees the whole pattern edge eastwards, High Pressure (1036mb) centred around Ukraine. Low Pressure for the Atlantic and Northern Scandinavia, slack and cool (and showery) SW winds over the UK. On the western side of the High \pressure, for much on western Europe and into Scandinavia, mild or very mild and remaining mostly settled.

    [attachment=123764:25 Nov +120.png]

    Unsettled (992mb) over the UK and quite cool, also unsettled with NW winds over Northern Scandinavia. The core of the High Pressure has over into Russia, but much of Europe remaining settled and mild or very mild with SW winds. Slightly less settled over Western Europe with the chance of a few showers, this includes the Alps.

    [attachment=123763:25 Nov +144.png]

    Unsettled (992mb) over much of Western Europe including the Alps and the UK and generally quite mild. High pressure over much of Eastern Europe and Russia but mild. Cooler over Northern Russia and Scandinavia with West or North West winds.

    [attachment=123762:25 Nov +168.png]

    [b]Alpine Detail[/b]

    [CODE]
    850Hpa Summary (Noon) , Regional Detail
    Sat 26th Nov -2 to +7 +2 in NE Austria, +7 in SW Switzerland
    Sun 27th Nov +7 to +11 Highest in Austria, Switzerland border
    Mon 28th Nov -1 to +8 -1 in NE Austria, +8 in SW Switzerland
    Tues 29th Nov +1 to +8 -1 in SE Austria, +8 in Tyrol
    Wed 30th Nov 0 to +7 0 in SW Switzerland, +7 in Tyrol, Warmer South to North
    Thurs 1st Dec +2 to +7 +2 in SW Switzerland, +7 in Tyrol, Warmer South to North
    Fri 2nd Dec +3 to +6
    [/CODE]

    [CODE]
    0c Isotherm Summary (6am) , Regional Detail
    Sat 26th Nov 300m-2000m 300m in North and East, 2000m in South West, 600-1200m generally
    Sun 27th Nov 1000m-3000m Localised pockets due to cloud cover
    Mon 28th Nov 300m-2000m 300m in Northern Switzerland, 2000m in South West
    Tues 29th Nov 300m-2400m 300m in North generally, 2400m in central slice inc Tyrol
    Wed 30th Nov 300m-2400m 300m in North and East, 2400m centred around Tyrol and NW Austria
    Thurs 1st Dec 600m-2400m 600m-1500m generally, higher centred around Tyrol
    Fri 2nd Dec 1500m-2100m Generally
    [/CODE]

    [CODE]
    0c Isotherm Summary (Noon) , Regional Detail
    Sat 26th Nov 1200m-3000m 1200m in North East, 3000m South West
    Sun 27th Nov 3100m-3600m Highest to South West
    Mon 28th Nov 1400m-3000m 1400m in North East, 3000m France
    Tues 29th Nov 2400m-2800m Generally
    Wed 30th Nov 2000m-3000m 1600-2000m South West, 2600-3000m Austria
    Thurs 1st Dec 1600m-2600m 2000-2400m west, 2600m NE Austria
    Fri 2nd Dec 1800m-2700m 1800-2100m west, 2700m NE Austria
    [/CODE]

    [b]Sat 26th Nov[/b]
    Mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1030mb.
    [attachment=123770:25 Nov +24.PNG]

    [b]Sun 27th Nov[/b]
    Mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1024-1028mb.
    [attachment=123771:25 Nov +48.PNG]

    [b]Mon 28th Nov[/b]
    A little precipitation edging into Southern Germany from the north for the morning, Snow Level around 800m, thereafter mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1024-1028mb.
    [attachment=123772:25 Nov +72.PNG]

    [b]Tues 29th Nov[/b]
    Mostly dry and settled, High Pressure around 1020 (west) -1028mb (east)
    [attachment=123773:25 Nov +96.PNG]

    [b]Wed 30th Nov[/b]
    Mostly dry and settled, Pressure dropping from the west 1008mb (here) - 1020mb (E Austria)
    [attachment=123774:25 Nov +120.PNG]

    [b]Thurs 1st Dec[/b]
    From early hours, some moderate showers developing for SW Switzerland, Snow Level around 1200m. This precipitation developing more widely during the morning and into the afternoon for the Southern Alps, much of Western Italy and for Southern Switzerland, SL around 1400-1700m, some showers also possible for NW Switzerland, SL around 2200m. Precipitation continuing during the evening and spreading into more central areas of Italy, SL remaining mostly similar.
    [attachment=123775:25 Nov +144.PNG]

    [b]Fri 2nd Dec[/b]
    Precipitation continuing overnight into Friday morning however becoming restricted to Southern Switzerland, Western Italy and the Southern alps, Trois Valleys area of France, SL 1600m+.

    This continuing through the day and into the evening for the areas mentioned above, snow levels around 1800-2000m, this is 7 days away and as such detail is very uncertain, but 20cm of snow cannot be ruled out for higher slopes, probably highest on the French Italian border.
    [attachment=123776:25 Nov +168.PNG]

    [b]Outlook[/b]

    There is considerable disagreement between the GFS on which most of the above is based, and the ECM, from around T+120 onwards and into the longer term. ECM goes for the possibility of a decent polar Maritime outbreak from the NW from around next Friday onwards, clearly time will tell which is correct and I will update on this during the week.[/font][/size]
  13. J10
    [b]Current Situation [/b]

    There is High pressure centered (1028mb) over SE Europe, with pressure over 1020mb for most of mainland Europe. winds over western Europe are coming from a mild SW direction for much of the Alps and for Western parts of Europe including Southern Scandinavia. Colder air is restricted to the far north of Scandinavia where this a northerly flow and for Russia. The mild weather looks well set for much of mainland Europe, however Scandinavia is set to see a change, and this will be discussed in more detail below.

    [attachment=123542:Current 18th Nov 500HPa.png]

    [b]Synoptic Progression[/b]

    For most of Europe very little change over the next 24 hours, High pressure remains centred (1028mb) over SE Europe, winds remain from a mild S/SE direction. Fronts should remain to the west of the UK, although some rain cannot be ruled out in N and W areas. It should also be mostly dry over the Alps. Sunday sees almost an identical situation, a flabby High pressure covering most of Europe centred over SE parts (1026mb), this giving mostly dry and settled conditions over the UK and the Alps. The colder weather initially over Northern Scandinavia edging further south and then east over the weekend.

    [attachment=123534:18 Nov +24.png] [attachment=123535:18 Nov +48.png]

    By Monday, the whole situation moves East, the High Pressure centre moves away into Asia, with Atlantic fronts finally making headway over the UK, the Alps should see lower pressure but ti should remain mostly dry. Winds for much of Europe of a southerly orientation so remaining mild. Tuesday sees a big area of High pressure build over Scandinavia, bringing mild weather with southerly winds on its western flank, but northerlies on its eastern flank so bitter air over Eastern Scandinavia and especially Russia. Further south over Europe very much in between weather patterns but remaining mild with winds from the West or South.

    [attachment=123536:18 Nov +72.png] [attachment=123537:18 Nov +96.png]

    Wednesday sees the High pressure (1036mb) edge further east to be centred over Western Russia, so mild over Scandinavia but increasing bitter over Russia. Polar Maritime air starting to edge in the far NW parts of the UK, as a cold air pushes SE, but generally mild with ridging High pressure from the SW, with winds from deep to the SW for the rest of the UK and Northern Europe. The Alps and Southern Europe seeing Easterly winds on the northerly flank of Low Pressure centred over Northern Italy.

    By Thursday, there is High Pressure over much of Central Europe, so mostly settled over the Alps, and remaining mild. Very unsettled for the UK and Scandinavia with some heavy rain, mild to start, over the UK but turning colder after the cold front passes through. Remaining very cold in the far east of Europe including Russia.

    For Friday, the colder Polar Maritime air edging SE into Central Europe and the Alps, this gives the potential of snowfalls to quite low levels over the Alps for the first time in a while.

    [attachment=123538:18 Nov +120.png] [attachment=123533:18 Nov +144.png] [attachment=123539:18 Nov +168.png][attachment=123542:Current 18th Nov 500HPa.png]

    [b]Alps Detail[/b]

    Saturday 18th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 300-1000m, coldest in Eastern and NE Austria, Germany and Northern Switzerland, around 1200 for much of Switzerland and Western Austria.

    FL rising to 2200-2500m for France and most of Switzerland, 2700-2900m in SE Austria. 850Hpa ranging from +3-8c generally. Mostly Dry perhaps a little precipitation in the far west during the evening.

    [attachment=123543:18 Nov +24.JPG]

    Sunday 19th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 500-1000m in Eastern and NE Austria, milder elsewhere around 1200m, and around 2000m in the Tyrol.

    FL rising to 2200-2600m generally. 850Hpa ranging from +3-8c generally. After early morning precipitation moves away from the west, Dry throughout day and night.

    [attachment=123544:18 Nov +48.JPG]

    Monday 20th Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 300-1000m, coldest in Eastern Austria, milder elsewhere around 1200m, and around 2000m in the Tyrol and into Eastern Switzerland.

    FL rising to 2200-2600m generally. 850Hpa ranging from +4-8c generally, but closer to 1-2c on the Italy border with Austria and Switzerland, Dry throughout day and night.

    [attachment=123545:18 Nov +72.JPG]

    Tuesday 21st Nov - Overall FL (am) down to 300-1000m, coldest in Eastern Austria, milder elsewhere around 1200m, and around 2000m in the Tyrol and into Eastern Switzerland.

    FL rising to 2200-2600m generally. 850Hpa ranging from +3-8c generally.

    [attachment=123546:18 Nov +96.JPG]

    Wednesday 22th Nov - Nighttime FL similar to previous nights, rising to around 2000-2400m, 850Hpa around 4-6c in Central areas, 2-4c elsewhere. The low pressure to the south will give some showers, from the early morning for Southern Switzerland, E France and Italy only dying out slowly during the day.

    [attachment=123547:18 Nov +120.JPG]

    Thursday 23rd Nov - Nighttime FL 300-600m in parts of Austria closer to 1500m over SW Switzerland, rising to 2400m over France, 1600-1800m over Austria and mostly dry. 850Hpa around 4-6c in Central areas, 2-4c elsewhere. The low pressure to the south will give some showers, from the early morning for Southern Switzerland, E France and Italy only dying out slowly during the day.


    [attachment=123548:18 Nov +144.JPG]

    Friday 24th Nov - Nighttime Fl 1500-2000m over Western areas, 300-600 over E Austria. A cold front will bring some precipitation to the NW Alps and will spread to Central areas by evening. FL 1200-1400m to the NW of the front, 1600-2100m ahead of it. However by evening, snow levels down to around 500-800m with moderate falls in places.

    [attachment=123549:18 Nov +168.JPG]

    [b]Summary[/b]

    Mostly settled and mild to start, but the chance of some much needed snow just before next weekend.
  14. J10
    This is the first in a series of blogs looking at the Snow and Skiing conditions for the Alps for winter 2011-12.

    A cursory look at the webcams across the Alps will show that snow levels are currently on recent at this early stage, and that temps over the Alps have been milder than normal so far in November.

    As an example the following table shows maximum temps for Zermatt (1600m - Switzerland) and Salzburg (450m - Austria), this only gives a snapshot, but it can be seen that Temps are milder in 2011 than in both 2010 and 2009, and it is unusual that there has been a cold snap recently.

    [attachment=123366:Winter Temps.JPG] <- Table with temps of Zermatt and Salzburg.

    Synoptically can this be explained, firstly if we were to look at this years patterns, this gives the 850Hpa temps across Europe and the wind direction.

    [attachment=123368:GFS 01 Nov.png] [attachment=123369:GFS 02 Nov.png][attachment=123370:GFS 03 Nov.png] [attachment=123371:GFS 04 Nov.png] [attachment=123372:GFS 05 Nov.png] [attachment=123373:GFS 06 Nov.png]
    [attachment=123374:GFS 07 Nov.png] [attachment=123375:GFS 08 Nov.png] [attachment=123376:GFS 09 Nov.png]
    [attachment=123377:GFS 10 Nov.png] [attachment=123378:GFS 11 Nov.png] [attachment=123379:GFS 12 Nov.png]


    At no time is there a wind from any northerly direction for the Alps, and for the majority of the period, 850HPA temps are above +5c, the only exception being for Eastern Austria after the 10th.

    In Summary, At the start of November, there was a High Pressure over Eastern Europe with low pressure further west, and the Alps in the middle seeing mild Tropical Maritime air with South Westerly winds. By around the 5th-7th, low pressure took over for much of Continental Europe, but with winds remaining from a SW direction bringing 850Hpa temps around +10c for a while. By around the 10th, High Pressure edging back into Eastern Europe with winds edging back to a SE direction, with less mild winds trying to edge in from the South East.

    If you look at previous years, there has been some colder air at different times across early November.

    2010 started mild with a Bartlett style High.
    [attachment=123380:Nov 4 2010 850Hpa.gif] [attachment=123381:Nov 4 2010.gif]

    However winds then turned around to a Northerly direction on the 6th, this gave Polar Maritime air which lasted for a few days, giving a general cool down across the Alps.
    [attachment=123382:Nov 7 2010.gif] [attachment=123383:Nov 8 2010 850Hpa.gif] [attachment=123384:Nov 10 2010 850Hpa.gif] [attachment=123385:Nov 10 2010.gif]

    [attachment=123386:Matterhorn Nov 2010.jpg] [attachment=123387:Matterhorn Nov 2011.jpg] This gave a topup of snow for November 2010 as opposed to the less snowy picture for 2011, however much of the snow seen on the slope above Zermatt was delivered during the 4th-8th November.

    2009 saw more of a pronounced change around over the Alps. again it started mild with a High pressure to the east bringing in southerly winds. However by the 3rd winds had changed round to a NW flow, with associated polar maritime air. It stayed quite cool for a few days, before low pressure brought NE winds and sub zero 850Hpa air.

    [attachment=123395:Nov 1 2009 850 Hpa.gif] [attachment=123388:Nov 3 2009.gif]
    [attachment=123389:Nov 6 2009 b.gif] [attachment=123394:Nov 6 2009 850 Hpa.gif]
    [attachment=123390:Nov 9 2009.gif] [attachment=123393:Nov 9 2009 850 Hpa.gif]
    [attachment=123391:Nov 12 2009.gif] [attachment=123392:Nov 12 2009 850Hpa.gif]

    Even though the Alps do not require perfect weather conditions to bring cold weather and snow, indeed 0c at 850HPA will bring snow to most resorts over the Alps. It is just as vulnerable to Bartlett High and Southerly winds as the UK.

    A look ahead for the rest of November prospects will follow over the next few days, and I will also post a few more webcams to show the difference between this year and previous ones on the ongoing discussion thread here. - > [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71533-alps-snow-and-weather-conditions-2011-2012"]http://forum.netweat...tions-2011-2012[/url]
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