ReindeerMarmalade

Kiddo came home from school today with a note asking parents to send the children in with wellies tomorrow for a lesson on the field. Presumably the lesson is either 'Wading for Beginners' or 'Do Five-Year-Olds Make Good Kites?'...I don't expect much from primary schools but I'll admit this has surprised me a little.

We've buggered the climate up so I think the only recourse now is a nationwide invoking of Sod's Law from here on out: - All conceptions to take place between February and May - NW to invest in new white water rapids and international open swimming events for winter...guaranteed never to see a drop of rain between November and March again - Everyone book British seaside holidays in January and February - No more purchasing of winter supplies. Government scheme to be implemented for the swapping of snow shovels/de-icer/thermals/hats/gloves/scarves for waders/emergency life-rafts/water wings/umbrellas/sunscreen - Queen's permanent residence to be moved to Alaska/Canada/NE USA, mandatory for the winter. If we can't have snow, they can't either - All references to 'winter wonderlands' to include perpetual rain and gardens like a quagmire. Christmas cards to be changed to show soggy robins and kids in wellies trying to make mudmen - MOST IMPORTANTLY: weather enthusiasts to start posting charts showing mild/rain, with comments like "this looks seasonal!" and "fingers crossed this verifies." Any snowy charts to be met with responses like "I really hope THAT one doesn't come off!" All official seasonal forecasts to be limited to mild and/or rain, no matter what the data show. Cold-lovers to be referred to as 'rainies'. No, this is not scientific and yes, there are flaws in this plan

Personally, I'd love what the US has had with this blizzard! Only the truly psychotic want people to die, due to weather or anything else. Tragic as it is for the families involved, it's worth keeping a little perspective on weather-related deaths before reaching for the self-flagellation whips, hair shirts, or fainting couches. Death toll may increase, of course, but the BBC are currently reporting a total 18 snow-related deaths (some indirect), including: - 6 attributable to snow-shovelling - 1 fatal accident involving a teen sledging behind an ATV - 1 man shot dead by the man he'd gone to help when the motorist's car had come off the road In a previous report on Friday I saw 9 deaths had been attributed to vehicular accidents. This storm was estimated to have affected approximately 85 million people - a single weather event that had an impact on more than the total population of the UK, with the loss of 18 lives and not all of those unavoidable or directly due to the snow. As far as I'm aware, there have been none of the following: - disembowelling by snowball - confused and lost polar bears rampaging through Washington, eating kindergartners - sentient snowmen taking up arms and pillaging the east coast

I don't know what I like about this post more: that you think him saying "perhaps, perhaps, no certainty, that some of that colder air will return to eastern parts of the UK" is some sort of cast iron guarantee of a Beast from the East and ten-foot snow drifts nationwide, or that you think official MetO forecasts are left to the whims and personality types of individual presenters And people wonder why MetO so often hedges its bets when there's uncertainty

The performance of the models recently is the only thing still giving me hope I'm not going to make a hatrick of winters with no snow I guess it's human nature to want favourite things to stick around as long as possible, and given the seeming difficulty of getting seasonal weather (I'm not even sure what that is anymore!) to our shores in winter it's only to be expected that people dread the breakdown and return to bilge. People lucky enough to have snow are hoping it lasts a little bit longer, and people without (like me) are hoping we get another chance. I guess it's like experiencing a couple of years of drought and hoping the rain continues.

Bit of snow this morning but nothing of any consequence - light scatting on the shed roof and a few falling flakes. All disappeared quickly enough. The MetO hourly breakdown went a bit bonkers in claiming a mix of heavy and light snow between 0400 and 1100 here. Nice to see so many people in our region got lucky, though! Back to the MOD thread in hope of a second bite at the cherry.

Just drizzle here now Do we expect the precip type to maintain this boundary or is there any chance those of us to the west might actually see some damn snow?

Lamppost-dar on the fritz again but conservatory roof-dar still claims some shenanigans are going on. I suspect drizzle. Boo hiss. So bloody marginal!

Remember we're supposed to have no precip until 2300 and then only brief sleet followed by 'heavy rain'...sleeting early may bode well

SLEET! Incredibly sparse but sleet nonetheless! @paget get your best flannelette on and go peer at the lamppost!

Can definitely hear something on the conservatory roof but it's probably just rain. Or a nocturnal tapdancing pigeon. Nothing visible on lamppost-dar.

Anglo-Saxon or earlier?

I'm peering at the sky too, so you're not alone! Doing a passable impersonation of a constipated pirate trying to force the lamppost outside my house to show me snow.

Looks like I'm in the rain/pants zone then, despite the MetO's yellow Region of Joy

No comment!

Stars have disappeared here, which I didn't expect this early. MetO radar still showing heavier precip over me around 2300-0000, but it's a lottery whether it falls as rain or snow or even reaches the ground.

MetO precip at 1600 and forecast for 0000.

Looks like I'm too far west to be in the sweet spot. I'll still be lamppost-watching between my fingers, though

If, by some miracle, we actually get a covering I'll be on a photo frenzy I've seen these things downgrade too often, though, so I'm not even telling my daughter. Of course, chaos in the models means there's always a chance the risk area will increase too! Fingers crossed for everyone.

Indeed! New favourite model

Not holding my breath but...hello, lovely!

MetO 5-dayer and Sunday forecast for me. This is as excited as I've been for three years and I know it'll disappear but la-la-la-la-la-I'm-not-listening

Just watched the BBC update - Sunday has 'the south' at 7 or 8°, whereas MetO has me at a max of 3° (plus a bizarre hour's worth of heavy snow that doesn't seem to appear elsewhere). Something's amiss.

I rarely post in here but this is a perfect example of precisely why the MetO hedges its bets in situations like this. The models have been in turmoil recently, with at best unusual and at worst unprecedented conditions (in data terms) to try to sort through. Anyone who is literate and follows this thread will have noticed experienced posters commenting on how they've rarely (if ever) seen such outputs, and the models have struggled with internal consistency let alone cross-model agreement. I'm not entirely sure what you expect from MetO given the flip-flopping of the models...for them to pick a solution at random? Maybe resort to reading entrails or necromancy? The idea that modelling chaotic systems is somehow 'easy' continues to perplex me, particularly when we're aware of the unusual conditions and ongoing flux. Of course, with access to at least some weather models anyone is able to have a crack at it themselves and show the MetO how it's done Head-bangingly frustrated as I am by the painful dearth of snow IMBY, I have to admit this has been (and is) a fascinating period for model-watching.

Late last night MetO was showing light snow at various times from Sunday night onwards - an hour here and there and too far out to be of any use. All downgraded to nothing or rain now. 2° and rain sounds like the consolation prize. I'm being massively cheered up by the hormonal teenage handbags in the MOD thread and the 'moan-about-the-MOD-thread' thread, though