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heath

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Everything posted by heath

  1. heath
    Accuweather App forecasting snow for me today. Now that would be a shock! Sun has given way to thick fog this afternoon. 4C.
  2. heath
    There seems to be reasonable agreement on one chunk of PV heading from Canada to northern Scandinavia (ECM and both GFS) but the eastern movement of the Iberian low on the GFS suites allows the second chunk to head east and then descend on the UK as the Russian high fights back. The ECM 00z at t240 could lead to a very different outcome, to my inexperienced eye, with a further trough possibly developing towards Iberia. Is there actually a mild solution for week 2 December out there at this stage?
  3. heath
    Noticed yesterday evening that an easterly drift had come to my location - and that is pretty close in timing to what ECM first showed on 6 November for 9 or 10 days out. So kudos to ECM's model for that - remarkable consistency in the uncertain circumstances.
  4. heath
    Ahh - true - I was commuting between Leeds and Hull and it was tricky - but not so much after Christmas compared with '79. Some very cold ridges to Greenland though.
  5. heath
    So pleased that the Model discussion thread is (generally) convinced that winter is over. I just missed 1947 (except by witness stories) but remember 1962/3 and 1978/9 well. If my failing memory serves me well no snowy winter has started in November - 2010 stopped at Christmas. 2009 is a rare one to start before Christmas. Let the PV rage for a few weeks!
  6. heath
    Puzzled by some comments tonight. The easterly at t168 remains, and will be chilly (and probably unpleasantly damp for me). Chances of a cold incursion from the north east remain, but these are rare in November (only 2010 fits in my longish lifetime, and my dad never saw one). Rain may be a problem to my south and west, but we could do with it and will miss out again. Beyond even normal uncertainty after t168.
  7. heath
    Different rather than disappointing surely. Stronger sceuro ridge, Atlantic ridge heading to Iceland rather than Greenland at t144, and more energy in Eastern Canada. What will tomorrow show for these?
  8. heath
    Much needed rain this side of the Pennines this morning. But we still need more for the reservoirs and the land.
  9. heath
    The ECM has clearly been leading the way re the high to our north, but its last 2 t240 charts do not have the UK in the firing line. The 12z had the cold starting to move into NW Russia (and would then need to head east) and the 0z has it heading through Scandinavia and potentially to our north. This would seem to mean that the UK stays in a cool, wet Atlantic pm flow into the third week of November, while cold gathers all around.
  10. heath
    2 questions for the experienced model watchers please. 1. What is it that results in 2 models showing such differences in the Greenland area in what is sometimes termed the "semi-reliable" period (t144)? 2. The GFS(p) leads on to a damp south easterly (especially in my backyard) rather than a damp south westerly. How quickly do warm temperatures in the euro high switch to cold on the surface? My memory from living in Germany suggests it can happen almost overnight.
  11. heath
    Ground frost here this morning - cars needed a good scraping for the first time in 20 months. Fog down in the valley.
  12. heath
    If the cold northerly at t144 comes off, then, from what I can see, the first hints came in the ECM on 22 October. It has come and gone in the meantime across the models, but if the cold snap comes off it is reasonably impressive that ECM got there so far back.
  13. heath
    Many thanks to Mr Murr for his commentary on the ECM last night. As a complete novice I was pleased that I could therefore track the move of the GFS 06z (weaker and brief cross polar) towards the ECM before reading comments on here! Best guess would be that the ECM will next move towards the GFS, I suppose.
  14. heath
    Very low levels in the Nidd valley reservoirs, and rain on the eastern side of the Pennines continues to be just dribs and drabs. No sign of much in the forecast or models with the slack westerlies running out of water before they get here. How long before there is a problem if the autumn rains do not turn up?
  15. heath
    I presume that the index will have its components and their weighting chosen after regression analysis in order to produce the best fit to historical winter data. The crunch is therefore the robustness of the correlation going forward.
  16. heath
    Thx,and I just about understand a WAA. But this option seems so far from any other so why should it happen? And if it does please give a clue as to what happens next
  17. heath
    Newbie here, but GFS 18z seems to bring forward the northerly even compared with ECM, and Thursday looks bitter now, as well as Friday. Am I right?
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