heath
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Everything posted by heath
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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards
heath replied to cheshire snow's topic in Regional
Radar keeps predicting a halt to the snow, but it has now got heavier. Could be fun taking a relative for a covid jab this morning. -
Model output discussion - into the last third of January
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
From the Kazakh Mongolian border to Cape Cod -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Recall being delayed at Barajas in Feb around 10 years ago. Wet snow and limited de-icing kit. Good snow cover on surrounding hills then, but nothing like yesterday.
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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards
heath replied to cheshire snow's topic in Regional
Perfect winter's day. Hard, rime frost, bright sunny morning, heavy snow shower to give a covering. Sun and cloud over the snow giving a dramatic landscape over the Dales and Lakes. -
Goodness me. It is snowing here. White Christmas! Happy Christmas everyone.
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Snow over the fells of the Lakes and Howgills. Snow showers visible eastwards around Pen y Ghent. Sitting in between here.
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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
heath replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just noticed the deep cold pool on ECM over western Kazakhstan. Where might that go? If anywhere. Any thoughts from those more expert than me? Not on GFS. -
Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Of course. But I cannot see Greenland heights without remembering 78/9 -
Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The invisible line isn't straight on ECMF op day 10, with UK on the western side. Another UK trough to follow in the week before Christmas? And then wait and see. Still not a flat profile. -
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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 06z operational may be flat in its early stages and may be unreliable, but a pre Christmas high would be dry and chilly. Until 2010 good cold spells came after Christmas and often after high pressure, if my ageing memory is correct. -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Much wetter than expected overnight. A lot of water on the fell and becks very lively. Looking across to Ingleborough snow level looks around 400m. Snowy on the Dale's passes.
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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What do you think would happen next then? -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All the recent varieties in later GFS operational runs at least share the presence of amplification somewhere. Let's hope that continues. -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
heath replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Recent GFS runs in their outer reaches have shown Scandy high, Iceland wedge and Greenland high. And now nice south westerlies from an Iberian high. Plenty of choice, and uncertainty. -
My wife is sure that there were a few flakes of snow around when she was up in the night. Moon was bright but some cloud about. Can any local experts tell me if that was possible?
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Looks like it will be my first ever autumn without a frost. Just missed out 2 nights ago. Ironic when we had 2 frosts in mid May to destroy the prospects of an apple or plum harvest. Gloom gloom currently
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Given the unusual similarity between ECM and GFS ar t240 the GFS beyond t240 is more interesting than normal, and that low would head southeast.