Big Dave
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Posts posted by Big Dave
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8 minutes ago, snowspotter said:
Steve Murr tweeting the GFS a load of rubbish >>
I certainly miss an SMU post in here but I think he was also one of the last to accept a downgrade.
Hope the downgrade doesnt turn into a bust.
Now who do I need to pay to secure that GEM run?
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I know it's just one model... and just one run... and it is only Kent (MBY though!!) but every downgrade starts somewhere with just one model, just one run, just one region...
I need to move!
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Lovely morning here with most incredible orange pink sky sunrise.
I need to stop looking at snow accumulation charts for Ashford which I know won’t be correct it always show disappointing total for this little town.Either that, or I just need to move north and higher a bit.
God I wish I still lived up around North West Kent/ Surrey border.. Oxted, Westerham, Caterham etc would be looking great right now.
*Goes off to look at snow accumulation charts and RightMove again
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1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:
Working out when to transfer, the majority of my emphasis from MOD thread to this thread. Saturday afternoon I reckon.
I sincerely hope so! That sounds about right but getting into squeaky bum territory now.
When a decent looking snow event disappears from one or two models 6 days out, I might 'be a bit glum'.... but we've now upgraded from there to the 'throw the laptop in the pond' level.
I get worried when we reach the tipping point and you cant see how it could upgrade any further... at that point, there's only one direction left... and I fear we may be there.
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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
News just in !
The Crunchy Snow and Ice Day Committee will be meeting at 7pm .
On the agenda .
Depth of cold and likely duration .
Frontal snow prospects .
Chances of a proper convective easterly .
Fine tuning the BCP ( Blizzard Contingency Plan ) .
The NSTC ( Nick Sussex Trauma Center) remains on standby , staff leave has been cancelled . Any decision to move from Code Red down to Amber or Green wont be taken until at least tomorrow.
Conclusions of the meeting to come later this evening .
Do send out an urgent alert in the event of a code brown please.
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Where has all the drama gone?
I'm an occasional lurker so I missed quite a bit but seems a number of big personalities missing from the MOD thread which is strange given the current output.
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1 hour ago, Kent Blizzard said:
GFS throws a spanner in the works, everything still in the balance.....who will come out on top?
It's going to be a day of flip flopping, would imagine the Mad thread will see a few barney rubbles.
I wouldn't be surprised if by this evening but more so tomorrow morning the GFS gets back on-board, but I'll keep my money in my pocket for now.
Enjoy the ride over the next few days!
TBH I cant see that there's anybody in the Mad thread to kick off. Lots of usual suspects seem to be missing. Am only an occasional lurker but I'm sure I'm not seeing a lot of the posters I was earlier in the season which is a shame given the current state of models.
The Mad thread now seems quite balanced... probably a good thing, but dare I say bland?
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8 hours ago, lottiekent said:
Pouring again. Add this to overnight rain plus what falls Saturday (it will not be snow, who are we trying to kid) and that’s another sizeable amount to add of to January’s already impressive count!
Add that to the current temp of 9.5c and I may as well wish for winter to be over and spring to arrive. Sick of rain
Yep. I fear I am becoming a convert to a Mildie.
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Pictures don’t do it justice but incredibly vibrant pink orange sunrise from Ashford Kent this morning.
Anxiously waiting to see if rain or snow arrives soon.
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Very wet stuff in Ashford Kent
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9 hours ago, SLEETY said:
Much better overnight runs, and met saying chance of disruption due to snow Saturday.
BTW what's happened to SM it says he doesn't exist anymore on the forum. WTF has happened, he be enjoying the chance of snow and the increasing chance of severe cold later on this month
Driven mad perhaps. It would be no murprise after all the ups and downs.
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1 hour ago, Chasbrown said:Which is the most reliable model please?
Window
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53 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:
you really think tht's gonna happen, us done South aren't gonna see much good unless we lose the Gulf.
Nobody knows and no model has a clue. This is just sport.
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1 hour ago, markyo said: Record snowfall in Japan - BBC Weather
WWW.BBC.CO.UKHeavy snow has been falling across Japan and several snowfall records have been broken including Fujiwara which saw 176cm of snow in 48 hours.
One can only dream of opening the curtains this winter to that!
Interesting that the previous record was from 2010! It smashed that record.
Maybe we can smash our 2010 winter too.
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2 hours ago, Ice Day said:
Not bad at all. -7 and -8 uppers into Scotland on Christmas Eve with colder to follow given the likely evolution.
Still lots of water to pass under this particular bridge, but steady as she goes.
D’Oh!
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1 hour ago, Big Dave said:
I think roads will be absolutely fine. It is settling on the road only briefly.
sadly the roads aren’t the issue... it’s the drivers.
And there we go! Tiny bit of snow and there’s a crash on the motorway.
snow isn’t the problem, drivers are.
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Just now, lottiekent said:
Do the roads look ok? Leaving Folkestone (0.8c and rain) to drive up the M20 sooo !
Traffic cams look ok for the motorway so far as I can see.
I think roads will be absolutely fine. It is settling on the road only briefly.
sadly the roads aren’t the issue... it’s the drivers.
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It’s snowing in Ashford Kent! That’s mean to be impossible! Woohoo
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Anybody skiing I’m or around Niederau, Austria - would love to hear some first hand snow reports. Taking the kids there in Feb half term to learn to ski.
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What a load of old cac!
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3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
hover mouse over it, underlined means it tells you meaning
Thanks. Might have realised if I wasn’t on mobile.
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31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Warm air advection, you need it directed poleward ideally if you want to disrupt the polar vortex so not going to be perfect on this run, when it gets right into the polar vortex it can if its very potent split the vortex not just in the troposhere but the lower part of the stratosphere as well disrupting the zonal flow. Its better when there is another bout from the pacific as well as our side of the pole - that is called Wave 2 - ie - 2 waves - the number of areas of high heights gaining lattitude.
Thank you, appreciated.
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Sorry, what is WAA? The Q&A page has been closed for some reason. Thanks in advance.
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted
It certainly does and I keep reassuring myself with such charts but at the back of my mind i always have this nagging doubt that every big bust, always starts with "just one model, just one run", just one region... and ends up in total pandemonium (in here at least).
But for now... it is, "just one model, just one run".