Mr Sleet
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Very heavy snow here for a couple of hours, 2 inches down already.We are on the end of the north London streamer!!!
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Must. Resist. Asking. Question...
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1442.png
Next Wednesday still has -5 air over the bulk of the BI!
http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png
You can see this low pressure forming on the occlusion over Ireland and putting it back onto a more NW/SE orientation, which is what is was progged to do a couple of days ago until the met office switched to more of a N/S (meridional) orientation yesterday.
Will it snow in the NW?I should think so, especially Carlisle.
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Here's John Hammond with some interesting graphics on the model uncertainty-apologies if posted already.
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Morning all
Alot of people on here given you're an hour behind me!
Just a word about the models this morning I think people might be falling into the trap of taking the output at face value without seeing whats happened over recent days, corrections south and west.
There are differences with the handling of the trough to the west, I think for the best snow event this is the UKMO especially as 120hrs with that low in the Channel but both the GFS and ECM also have snow.
Again though will these outputs look the same at 144hrs come the day, its noticeable how the GFS which once had a huge deep low which too an age to fill now has a weaker feature.
With high pressure still evident to the ne then theres always a chance the models will edge the pattern south and west.
Still alot of uncertainty going forward.
Indeed,there will still be a lot of uncertainty even on the day of the event in this situation.Going back to the seventies and eighties when this type of event was more common, a straight on south west attack was often repelled if the block was strong enough, what eventually broke it down was an undercut slowing down over France and sucking up some milder air from southern europe, this was mixed in as a south easterly, cutting off the supply of cold air from the east and opening the way for a conventional Atlantic push.
Whether that will happen here is anyone's guess!
I think your comment yesterday about some people getting a snowy plastering, some getting rain,and some getting nothing, is spot on.
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Just seen the BBC forecast for the week ahead which is going firmly with the UKMO output and showing a stronger easterly flow on Wednesday driving snow showers inland.
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Although the GFS is not everyone's cup of tea at the moment ,it is actually showing a better potential snow event for monday night than the ECM.
On the ECM this little wave running south east is almost out in the North Sea.
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130110/12/96/h850t850eu.png
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So the gfs starts crawling back towards the euros with its tail between its legs! I tell you what, if the uk ends up with cold and snow next week then it's not only the gfs that will have egg on its face but also many posters on this forum who've been spouting the usual stuff about how the gfs is right and all the other models would start back tracking towards it, many of those posters also didn't bother backing up their reasons as to why the gfs would be correct with any kind of chart analysis which in my eyes makes them nothing but trolls!
The only flaw in this is that the GFS has not backtracked at all in this run, the whole of the Uk is under mild and damp conditions by the end of thursday.
The ECM made a large movement toward the GFS today and the GFS has made a slight movement toward the latest ECM.There could well be a decent dollop of snow on monday/tuesday, after that it's a bit up in the air, but there is no strong blocking to the NE/E and the cold pool of air is not being replenished as it is cut off from it's source.So forget the models and go with common sense....thats not going to take much of an Atlantic push to shove it out of the way.
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I do find it amusing how some are so confident of the gfs coming off, with so much uncertainty in the models its crazy, if not stupid, to back any particular model right now, whether it's showing cold or mild.
Some posters are very short sighted, they keep on about the consistency of the gfs, so what, that doesn't mean it's right, it could be consistently wrong for all we know.
It's not just the gfs that could end up with egg on its face if it's wrong, so could many posters on here who seem to think the gfs is the only worthwhile model to pay attention to.
It's because the ECM has clearly moved toward the GFS today-the 12z ECM will be very interesting, I wouldn't bet against a further backtrack.
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The GFS of actually shows the fine line here with that shortwave, literally just 100miles more correction south on that shortwave and it links with the trough over France and there, well there is only one way that shortwave will go. Wish the ECM was still showing what it did last night as that would give me a lot more confidence.
More like 500 miles !
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Yes I think you're probably right with that one.
What is so damn frustrating about this, is that IF the GFS should come to pass as modeled today, then we are well and truly back to square one, would be well toward the end of the month at best before we'd likely get another opportunity leaving just 5 weeks of Winter left for us to get lucky, and if we fail at a 3rd attempt then Winter 2012/2013 might end up going down as one of the mildest on record ...I so hope I am wrong, but that's how I'm feeling right now.
I blame the French :-)
And GP will be picking the bones out of the carcass of his winter forecast...
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In terms of the pattern in the USA this from NOAA is very important:
...ADDITIONAL UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVING IN BASE OF WRN TROUGH
FRI/EARLY SAT...
...SHEARING-OUT INTO PLAINS ON SAT...
PREFERENCE: COMPROMISE OF GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF
ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND EARLIER 12Z MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES LATE FRI/EARLY SAT BEFORE THE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND SHEARS UP THE MID MS/OH VLY. THERE IS
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONCERNING THE PROGRESSION OF THE
DYNAMICS BUT AT THE SURFACE... ALL MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX NEAR 72HRS OR 00Z/13 AND SLIDING
NEWRD INTO THE OH VLY BY 84HRS OR 12Z/13... ANYWHERE FROM SERN MI
TO WRN PA. TOUGH TO DISCERN THE SMALL SCALE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR
OUT BUT A GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/UKMET AND EC SEEMS
SUFFICIENT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS VERY COMPARABLE TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN
AND STILL MATCHES THE ABOVE SURFACE SOLUTION... THUS STICK WITH
THE MODEL COMPROMISE.
It looks like the GFS at least made a decent call with the first shortwave not clearing east cleanly but with some shortwave energy in tow.
So it does look like we will have to deal with this. As you can see the forecaster has gone for a blended solution, as you can see he does state some uncertainty in terms of the exact detail.
How this impacts events near Greenland you can see by the differing outputs, these shortwaves aren't the only reason for this but essentially how these pieces of energy phase with troughing in the west Atlantic make a big difference.
For the timebeing I think we just have to wait till tonight, we have no idea at the moment which output has called this correctly.
Thanks Nick.Yesterday I urged caution with regard binning the GFS, simply because it got a very similar pattern right in early December,against the other models which went for a "Day after Tomorrow" event.Many years looking at these models and a bit of experience in the trade has made me very cautious!I think the GFS does better in these scenarios.
This mornings ECM is not anywhere near as good as the past few runs, it's very clear.However, all is not lost, we'll need to wait until Saturday I think, but I'm expecting the GFS type solution to be the winner with a short cold event and back to mild and damp by the end of next week. I'm not sure how significant the SSW is when pitted against what has been a strong Atlantic so far this winter.
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True, but until the GFS actually has some support it's not worth worrying about it too much. All the other models that develop the shortwave eject it South-East, there's good support for that and little support for the Shortwave to head East as per GFS.
18z rolling out now anyway
Just a word of caution from an old hand-don't dismiss the GFS solution, it got a similar scenario right in mid December when it was out on it's own. I'd say we'll need to wait until Sunday to know for sure.
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GFS was the highest verifying model around 11th December when it correctly predicted the return to mild conditions when the ECM and UKMO were going for continued cold.I think Daddy Bear needs to buck his ideas up!
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This looks very much like the climbdown we saw in December, with all the main models progging a sustained cold spell until a few days before the event, when the GFS suddenly had a strong south west flow blasting away any cold after a couple of days,and was proved correct.I suspect the same thing will happen here.
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That Scandi high is a long way from us;the cold block is actually a "block" of low pressure that will be much easier to shift by Atlantic lows.So the GFS may not be overdoing it-we'll see!
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Question, what's the deal with lamposts? Someone up thread mentioned looking at the radars and lamposts. I get the radar but is lampost code for something?
It's so you can see light snow more easily when it's dark.
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Good job Nick, well put together.
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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6991177.ece
IPCC mistake apparently
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I can only assume Nick that you're looking north-east which is not where a Bartlett high sits. Here's a Bartlett high. Go south from Britain to southern France and this is a Bartlett:
That's from the 12z GFS ... T150
And this explains a Bartlett High:
That is not a Bartlett, it's transient Azores ridge, and a pretty pathetic one at that!
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Right here in the sweet spot, 10 miles east of Oxford, heavy snow since 7 pm, 7 or 8 inches down and still going.It really is a sight to behold !
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Thanks for all your input! I do have a question though. I have been watching the precip literally pass right under my nose, by your above statement do you mean if we have not had snow now we will not get much later on either.
Sorry but I just wanted to know if I should keep the kids up or not (here in Ewell, Surrey)It looks like you will get some sooner rather than later, the pivot point is just north of me I think, so there is some frontal movement to the south in your direction.Keep 'em up I'd say
I'm about 10 miles east of Oxford and it's snowing heavily with about 3 inches down already.
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Guys i am assuming that sebastian1973 means the ECM when he mentions the EC. Could it be possible that we have been worrying over a model that is missing data as suggested which is why it looks so wrong. Can someone try to confirm this for us in the depths of dispair on here sebastians post seems to be ignored but may well give us a bit more info on the outputs.
Thanks
Hi SQ1. Sebastian translates it for us in fact and he is saying that dutch meteorolgists are questioning the data for the ECM model and that it may contain some mistakes.My advice is that we should all calm down a bit, if it doesn't come off think of the savings on your heating bill
- however I'm fully expecting to wake up to an inch or two of snow on Monday morning. -
6 inches here in Thame and still snowing lightly.
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One thing I don't understand about those charts,
How come some areas that survived the 2007 melt are down as "first year ice"? I'd have thought that if those areas didn't melt last year then it would be physically impossible for them to be first year ice this year.
Well spotted TWS, I was thinking exactly the same thing, it makes no sense at all.
Sorry but I just wanted to know if I should keep the kids up or not 
(here in Ewell, Surrey)
- however I'm fully expecting to wake up to an inch or two of snow on Monday morning.
Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Although a big improvement in the models for cold, this set up gives us the wishbone effect with snow showers really limited to far northern and coastal areas.
For those away from the coasts and in the southern half of the Uk,we'll have to hope for some disturbances running down the country to deliver anything.