Mr Sleet

Don't worry , the Gleissberg minimum will see us right

What are you doing to help ? (Serious question)

Precisely Angel B)

Scary .........sells newspapers ............enough said. Such a load of c**p.

Response censored by Mr Sleet. Don't want to get banned.

I've often wondered why the rate of increase ( in global temps) from 1910 to 1940 is the same as that of 1960 -1998 ( trend levels off after that) when the rate of increase of CO 2 was less.

Judging by your record in predicting the CET, which is about as good as mine, I suggest we wait and see.

Interesting summary of a Loehle paper (plus references) from 2004. Makes a convincing case that all of the warming in the 20th C was natural. Also identifies an abrupt warming starting in the early 1400's until the mid 1500's , similar to our current situation, where there has been a gradual increase for the past 100 years. http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2Scien.../V7/N4/EDIT.jsp

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4066189.stm Professor of geology not convinced either ...

Ooos sorry, I'll ask for the mods to remove it right away.

http://www.dangly.co.uk/ABD/poppycock.pdf I see Prof Bellamy doesn't think much of AGW.

It has now, but what I am saying is that for most of the year ,apart from May and August our weather has been rather blocked, and the block has not been directly over us, but to our east , with LP to our west. This naturally sets up south or south easterlies, the latter very warm in summer but decidely nippy in winter. Philip Eden's SLP anomaly charts for September show it clearly.

11.2 C for me. Reflecting on the year so far, it is quite obvious that the relatively blocked nature of our weather is playing havoc with monthly CET's.I wouldn't be surprised if the year as a whole ( which is the really important measure) continued the recent downward trend in CET. The two records to fall in July,and the below average winter months are the result of the positioning of the anticyclones to our east, with LP to the west.This has increased the continental influence on our weather this year.

It's already there , minus 99.9 C . Must have been a bit nippy in Pershore last night.

We've already been there and done that. Just saying it is northerly is not good enough. Where was the source of the air ? How long was the northerly track ?If you look back you can see that the northerly source was not far north at all . With respect to Philip, that analysis is interesting but not too much should be read into it. Examples :

Not according to this http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/app/filerepo...%20trends%20%22 ( page :lol: looks like the trend started in the 1970's. Anyway I thought you were a satellite man , in which case anything before 1978 is dodgy anyway. Incidentally, the arctic was much warmer than it is now in the recent past :

I've included graphs now in my original post so that you can see that something happened to it in 1974 ish ! Pre - AGW ? Behave yourself :lol:

I mean that the change in the AO and NAO has been extremely sudden, after many decades of positive and negative swings roughly cancelling each other out, there has been an abrupt change to positivity from 1974.In my opinion way too abrupt to blame GW, although it does get the blame for everything these days. You can't beat a persistent Aleutian or Icelandic low for warming the Arctic up.

Great post. How about the positive AO and NAO since the 70's and 80's respectively, transporting warmth up there. Prior to the 70's , the AO swung regularly negative to positive, since the 70's it has mostly been positive. The same has been true of the NAO since the mid 80's. In my opinion, this is not a GW phenomenon since the changes have been very sudden in nature.

Thanks P3. It is intriguing why the AO and NAO suddenly changed to positive in the 70's and 80's. The sudden nature of the change explains warming in great swathes of the N Hemisphere and ice melt in the arctic and which cannot be blamed on GW ;underlining how little we really understand about the atmosphere.

There is alot more blue on the map than green or orange, that is for sure.

Did anyone hear the Conservationist on Radio Five Live yesterday bemoaning the 75% drop in numbers of Barn Owls ? He was asked why and said that it was due to the "very cold" winter. He then went on to say that such "extreme" weather was due to global warming and humans are to blame. This is the type of fashionable but irrational thinking that so irritates me, AGW is the explanation for every slightly unusual event that happens these days.Unfortunately most of the listeners would have taken that as fact, I'm sure. Rant over, had to get that off my chest :-)

Well I haven't heard that one before, moreover I don't think there is any evidence for a statement like that.And the reason I think that it is incorrect is that the cooling after the interglacial warm phase was over was just as rapid as the warming on the way into the interglacial ( ie like falling off a cliff) despite CO2 levels remaining high.

CO 2 levels will rise with increasing temp because CO2 is less soluble with increasing temp. The question is which comes first ? Ice core data says that CO2 follows temperature up, but with a time lag.

I think Viking and Dawlish have written excellent responses , which I agree with. We should be trying to curb emissions;invest more heaviliy in cleaner energy technologies; clearly a "let it rip, it doesn't matter anyway" approach is wrong. But if you think that observing the Kyoto protocol will make a difference , well it will- global depression which will send us all into extreme poverty. Not just a mild recession, a long grinding depression. It will make little difference to the outcome wrt GW.