[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

POSSIBLE MAJOR UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT!!!

 

Okay a bit theatrical but everyone knows what I'm like by now!

 

For those who read my earlier NOAA update they had not used either the GFS 12hrs or NAM 12hrs because they were viewed as being too progressive and flat with the initial development of the low.

 

The latest NAM has made a  shift in the depth of the low aswell as its track, it only goes upto 84hrs but below is the 12hrs to Monday 00hrs:

 

nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

Followed by the 18hrs to the same time:

 

nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

And the GFS 12hrs to the same time:

 

gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

You can see the GFS is much further east and a lot shallower. Lets hope that the NAM is a good sign before the GFS 18hrs run comes out, hopefully that makes a similar shift.

 

We want the low to run as far inland as possible so certainly the latest NAM looks nice.

 

NOAA expected a track and deepening through the eastern Great Lakes so the NAM does support that.

 

As a FYI, a lot of the US forecasters have been whinging that the GFS puts things too far east,

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

Why are we waiting for their ECM32 update now? This is an issue which constantly arises with certain posters. When cold is suggested via any avenue, be it any various models or the MO, we must always wait for some other juncture. Then once this has passed, we must wait for something else. The Met Offices updates change daily so they are clearly receiving regularly updated information and making judgements based on it - today's updates seems to signify an increased confidence and wider scope (no longer just the North) for wintery weather towards the end of the month. Additionally, if I remember correctly, the last ECM32 was deemed poor for any cold throughout the next month yet the Met Office are continuing with the theme of increasingly colder weather towards the months end. So indeed we can wait for their next update, but I don't believe it wise to do so. It could show a decrease in the cold signal, a period to rival 1947 and if it does, the Met Office may take a different view to it as they seem to have done this month. Why can we not just accept what the premier weather organisation the world are saying at this moment and be positive about it without caveats from the same people over and over again.

Cos its a model discussion thread :-) thats the whole point of it - discuss the models

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Yup, Atlantic isn't going to settle down in a hurry in the New Year that's for sure, plenty more wind and rain than I had hoped for over the next 7 days or so - hopefully beyond that we will see some relaxing of the pattern.

 

Hi,

 

You seem to know your stuff ;-) Does the NAO going negative impact the frequency and intensity of these things?

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

IF the GFS is correct then the low at T126 is till there at t186 and will have only moved a few hundred miles in that time. Every other low has moved quicker across the uk. I would question the time it takes to move away. Couple this with it building heights to the ne. I think we maybe seeing a start to a change.

 

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but the speed of this one might be related to the NAO going negative as compared to positive earlier in the month? Some uncertainty on if it stays negative or goes back positive at this stage.

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Although not strictly UK related, have you lot seen the output the the US next week? Pretty much all models agreeing on another brutal cold shot for them. ECWMF performing well for the US this winter. GFS? Not so well, inclined to put things a little too far east.

 

I must say it's hard to recall such a wet festive period. I live on a hill and even I'm starting to see a lot of standing water now.

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Is it true that a SSW event is about to take place, can this change things? Do the models pick up on such an event? James Madden, Johnathan Powell and Mr Vogan must be praying for one.

The quickest way to deep cold right now would be some form of blocking developing over Greenland. Others would likely disagree. That's not an impossibility. There is more potential in what is seen now than what was seen in December.

 

Don't listen to those joke forecasters :-) They took a stab in the dark, likely based around last winter, and got it massively wrong. The only people worse than them are the newspapers who give them somewhere to vent.

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Thanks for the welcome Steve! So I take it that as long as bitter air is spilling out of Eastern Canada into the Atlantic, then that fuels an endless supply of storms for the UK. That is a pretty depressing scenario and so is a winter with no snow, it's been a while since that happened. Has there ever been a winter with all atlantic driven weather before? Surely it can't go on for another 3 months........can it?

 

Not likely to! First half of December was technically different to the second part. First part of Jan currently looking like a slightly cooler version of this week (my opinion!). Anything can and will happen. I think everyone agree there isn't gonna be a deep freeze in the first half of Jan though.

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Models seem to be suggesting a slightly less mild version of what we have had this week. Storms, just not quite as mild. Maybe snow for some. Not gonna try past day 8 or so though.

[Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

Hi All,

 

Hope you all had a good Christmas. The large amounts of wine I drank yesterday is lingering a bit this morning.

 

I'm still trying to learn things here and I don't want to start criticising, but it is actually hard to figure out what you lot been by "mild" or "cold". For example, today in my neck of the woods it will struggle to get above 2 degrees today. However, I get the impression you lot don't think this is cold. The weather forecast tells me it will get a little warmer for the weekend, with temps around 7 degrees. So, when you say no signs of cold, are you basically saying no signs of days where it doesn't get above freezing? No sign of prolonged cold (3-4 days or more)? 

 

It seems a lot of people spend time discussing the model outputs but don't actually translate what it would actually equate to in real terms. Again, I'm not going to tell you what you should and shouldn't discuss, but it would be helpful for a little more detail.

[Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2]

Ha ha, so we've gone from writing off a whole winter 10 days in to writing off a whole clutch of winters based on some unpromising model output!

 

Who knows, you could be right, but I think I'd want something a bit more scientific than that to back you!

 

At the risk of being a little off topic, is there any evidence in support of the notion that seasons go in phases e.g run of wet or at least no better than average summers 2007-2012, the very mild winters in the early 2000's, and warm sunny summers 1989-1991?  Impressionistically, it seems that way, but has this ever been studied, and if does exist, what causes it?

No, there isn't. Of course, you have the El Nino and La Nina years, which I think is every 3-5 years (from memory) and that can impact the weather, but other than that, there are no short term cycles I can think of which would impact just a few years. Some people link to 30 year or so cycles, but even in those you can get those few odd years! Have a google for El Nino and La Nina effects.

 

Tis a bit soon to be writing winter off so soon in. I mean, December is an early winter month. Look what happened in Jan, Feb and March this year.

[Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

These posts are confusing they seem to contradict each other ?

Because there are 5 or so different models, which rarely agree completely quite far out. Then we have the fact that a lot of people have a bias towards either cold or mild, which comes across in their views of the models. Also, most are just keen ameatures here, so they will get it wrong. If the last 5 pages tells you anything, its that things can change quickly and that many people who post here arent objective. :-)Dont stress it and just take it for what it is.

[Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

the movement of the vortex added to the push into the atlantic of that brutal cold over the states was always going to ramp up the northern arm next week. with the block quite solid to our south and east the possible squeeze on pressure is going to be big and these deep lows passing just nw of the uk have been a strong spread theme late next week on ecm and naefs. for once, gfs is probably not overdoing things and somewhere across the uk is likely to be pulling the short straw on this one. (maybe more than once). very little tropospherically to hang a coldie hat on today. the ens amplifications are fairly transient where they occur. the odd member more sustained amplified but the NH profile pretty awful in general if you want a cold outlook. i note joe b's tweet re strat situation but looking at gfs op modelling today, i see the output as less interesting than yesterday. i suspect he has view of ecm ens and gefs strat data so i bow to his 'greater knowledge'. we will see.

Fair. However, correct me if I'm wrong, even if the stratosphere is warming, I believe it will take around 3 weeks to impact anything here? Again, that's assuming it is indeed happening as reported.

[Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

It is currently at the maximum of the eleven year cycle; the overall cycle is the lowest for hundred years or thereabouts.

Fair enough. As long as we agree that although it is at a "maximum" that maximum is fairly low compared to historic data.

[Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.]

I'm not really surprised to see this when I'm firmly of the belief that the recent cold winters were triggered by a long and very low solar minimum (some think ice loss- better this year but overall still very low) - what is not low is solar activity, at maximum now, is it a coincidence that we are seeing this flatter pattern and potent vortex; I think not

Don't want to pick an argument on my first post, but can you back that up? I mean, as far as I know the Sun is currently at a 400 year minimum. What's your source to say its at maximum?