Longtimelurker
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Posts posted by Longtimelurker
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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:
What a striking difference at day 4 between GFS and UKMO you have to put your money with UKMO at this stage. If ECM 00z which comes out alike to UKMO in roughly two hours time - I’d say it’s all systems go.
No you'd put your money on the GFS. As it was the only one who didn't call the phantom "Cold Easterly" for this weekend, earlier this week ecm and ukmo had -10 uppers across England and Scotland for now.
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4 hours ago, mountain shadow said:
Kudos to the teleconnect gurus, they trumped the models.
Here's hoping they're right for later in the month.
Remember what they were saying in early December and remember last winter early doors, you yourself were predicting copious snow with the Teleconnections then that never materialised and once this started showing in the models alot of the Teleconnections crew started altering their predictions. So many blinkers
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Snowing in donegal this morning
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Lots living on lá lá land on the model thread. The ECM has got progressively worse those past 3-4 runs yet them seem oblivious for the most part.
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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Doom and gloom? It's not doom and gloom, it is what it is. As it stands, anyone hoping for a convective E'ly with snow shower after snow shower is going to be disappointed (could still change).
Those hoping for some kind of battleground snowfall may be pleased. Anyone who likes it cold will be pleased. Anyone wanting an extended cold spell may be feeling slightly disappointed tonight.
I think that's a fair assessment to be fair...unless others are seeing something different??
Agree 100%. IMO the last couple of runs haven't been as good but I never jumped on the joy train to begin with. The trend is your friend as they say.
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ECM is pretty rubbish in terms of snow. Dry fest mostly. Give me a Greenie high any day over this.
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Castlederg 57mph. Malin head reached the 70s,normal for there.
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3 minutes ago, The PIT said:
Further downgrades misses northern Ireland with 60 mph gusts across across a small area southern Scotland and northern England. Time for downgrade of the warnings????
Are you basing this completely off the GFS?
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30 minutes ago, The PIT said:
Quite a downgrade tonight any more and it will Dylan from magic roundabout by tomorrow morning.
Do you mean for your area or those areas under Amber warnings?
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Met Éireann got this right. Surprised no yellow warning from Met office or NI Facebook weather
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13 minutes ago, booferking said:
Flakes in the rain here now temp 2.9c dew 1.5 turning more to snow as i type confused.com
Has to be super low humidity in play here.
I check humidity widely above 90%. Snowing here now as well
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Just now, booferking said:
Reports of snow in number of places in the south last night colder for snow and we got rain you really have to scratch your head sometimes let's see what we get up north.
Snowed heavy in Donegal last night and western parts of NI
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Met Éireann snow warning for tonight.
This is a pic I took last night. All gone now unfortunately
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3 minutes ago, Sperrin said:
Back to rain for me!
What's your thoughts on next few days lads?
Chance of more snow tonight, similar to last night. Storm this weekend. Warnings out.
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23 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Surprised at the snow reports this late morning, it was all meant to be rain by now, maybe the heaviness of the precipitation is leading to evaporative cooling and temps on the higher hills just about good enough for snow.
Surprise snow is always the best of course.
I thought it needed to be calm for evaporative cooling? I'm probably wrong
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Snowing heavy in Donegal. Rained for first 5 minutes giant flakes since. Winds picking up.
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41 minutes ago, Sperrin said:
Nice graphic for us in the west from the met on their Facebook page, going to be touch and go!
Chief Forecaster's assessment
A band of snow and rain is expected to move northeastwards over Northern Ireland later on Thursday night and during Friday morning. Snow is more likely over the north and west of Northern Ireland where it will fall to low levels for a time before tending to turn to rain towards dawn. Elsewhere any snow will be temporary and the greater risk is for rain to fall onto frozen surfaces leading to ice for an hour or two after the rain begins.
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2 hours ago, Paul said:
This isn't specifically aimed at you, but way too many are falling into the trap of expecting a silver bullet when it comes to forecasting - short or long range. The MJO is an indicator, one possible signal to use in amongst 100 others.
It's never been and never will be the single answer to the weather forecast, so to say it's useless because it can be over-ridden or muted is pretty much the equivalent of saying using air pressure in forecasts is useless because you expect it to always be sunny when pressure is high. If forecasting were that simple, we'd have next to nothing to discuss in here!
Weather is complex, rather than railing against the complexities and difficulties of forecasting, i'd recommend embracing it, and trying to learn why things over over-ridden, why some indicators fair well sometimes and not at others, that's the challenge and interest of it all. Failing that, there's always the moans thread
I never said it was useless so don't put words in my mouth. I'm not expecting a silver bullet either. My point is it gets mentioned more than anything else when it comes to signals on here and almost always some excuse is made for it when it doesn't pan out as expected, a wishy washy non descriptive one at that . I'm not railing against anything just pointing out the jibberish and your post would be well suited to the moan thread. How dare anyone on here question background signals. How very dare they.
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6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
That's the trouble with the MJO though. Too many other variables can override/mute the signal.
I often wonder why it gets so much attention when this is the case. NOAA update pretty much says they don't have a clue. LRWF are pants
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1 hour ago, TEITS said:
Sadly the 06Z indicates exactly what I was referring to earlier.
What's the verification stats for GFS in winter for 10 days in to the future? Exactly
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"There is no interest long term in the ECM - it order for anything decent to come from a migrating high from the Pacific side it needs to align more towards Russia-
no interest in the models at the moment ( other than the odd transient event at elevation - nothing to develop in the North / North east for +10 days at least"
From model thread from a certain poster who predicted up to 5 inches of snow when it had turned back to rain last week. Model thread is confusing, lots of posts saying there will be nothing just because their area isn't included but they forget to say that.
I'm not saying it will be a snow fest but we certainly have a decent chance of seeing some snow next week. Certainly not as pessimistic as the model thread
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Sorry Pomeroy couldn't delete that above.
ECM Snow depth charts in inches
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On 12/16/2017 at 11:55, ForeverPomeroysnow said:
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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
ukmo 144 is quite fascinating- will the jet continue to dig south allowing all that freezing arctic air over northern scandy to be pulled towards the UK- or will the energy spilling out of the ESB flatten everything out (ala METO update earlier)..
Wouldn't the cold air be coming down from the North rather than via Scandinavia in this set up? Looks like its coming from the direct North to me but I'm just a noob
Model output discussion - into 2018
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Longtimelurker
There is no Continental air over England, its 200 miles East in the North sea. So I don't see how an Easterly is guaranteed when there is more confidence for the Westerly and you state confidence is low for this. Out to T300 and its a Westerly ,not once has an Easterly shown up to this point. Where is the guaranteed coming from?