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Longtimelurker

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    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Longtimelurker

    6 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

    Met office have informed us that there will be more showers overnight but not as bad as that last fall  so nothing major to be fair.

    I didn't hear that. What's your source? Their proper warning doesn't kick in until midnight. The one for this evening only mentioned slushy deposits 

    Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Longtimelurker

    Met office video forecast this evening showed a spell of snow to low levels for several hours on Sunday before turning more to rain as the milder air pushed in. With frontal snowfall you don't need as low as uppers as you do with showers. Anyway it will change 50 times before Sunday and we could still be in the dark come Sat evening. I remember the blizzard in 2013, the NW of England had an Amber warning for snow until the day before but never made it to them. I think there is a bias in the models to show it push through us, so my hunch is it moves further to the south and we stay largely dry in the northern third or we get a decent spell of snow with more rain to the south of us. 

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Longtimelurker

    Met office Outlook states confidence is very low. Meaning they don't have a clue what will happen. I don't  place much credence in background signals it's the same every year with them. Predictions made by them concerning cold get pushed back and back and next you know winter is over and it didn't deliver and nothing is even mentioned of it again. An explanation of oh this happened to prevent it. Thenrinse repeat next winter. Met Office confidence is low for the next 30 days so the writing certainly isn't on the wall for December. We can't even see the wall. 

    • Like 2

    Where have the long fetch northerlies gone?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 10/9/2017 at 15:57, phil nw. said:

    Any Northerly that we may get in Winter now will it seems have less bite to them than years ago.The warmer Arctic and the southern extent of the main Icecap in early Spring on our side of the Pole means a longer than ever track over open sea.

    I can recall in the 60's a number of really cold Northerlies especially around Feb/March when the southern limit of the Ice touched the North coast of Iceland at that time.

    Look at this chart from Feb 69 as one notable example 

    archives-1969-2-7-12-1.png

    Wrt 2010 the real deep feed of cold was more from the north east(polar continental air mass)-(image 1 below) rather than a true maritime Arctic feed.

    archives-2010-11-30-12-1.pngarchives-2010-12-8-12-1.png

    The wind did swing around to a somewhat less cold northerly later on(image 2) but by that time the deep surface cold was well established.

    I think these days our best chance of seeing our lowest Winter temperatures is from the north east or east,basically continental air masses from Northern Russia/Siberia, often via Scandinavia, along the lines of that exceptional 2010 outbreak,anything else becomes modified more easily these days it seems.

    Didn't the "bad" Northerly occur around the 18th of December 2010. Any chart for it? I'm intrigued. 

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