lassie23

ECM seems to specialize in predicting non existant snowfalls this winter, how many of its cold spells have actually happened this winter..................0 Now if the GFS predicts a cold spell, then I may get interested. Haven't seen the latest GFS, it hasn't let us down yet this winter, what is it predicting.

GFS now pushes a nose of the Azores high way up to the NE towards Iceland bringing us an unsettled easterly flow with low pressure nearby rtowards the south and east of the UK. Will this pattern still be there this evening?

GFS wants to attempt to link the Azores high with a high forming over Greenland. However, this is predicted to happen during the first part of February so things will chop and change a lot. There is also a deep low coming out of the eastern US which could scupper the link and ruin the block. This has been the story of the winter so far.

Lots of high pressure around on the latest GFS, but still too much energy coming out of the states to allow it to settle in a decent position for cold. It's unable to push north and unable to push up to the north east, instead it could land slap bang on top of the country which is a bore fest of a different kind.

High pressure in the Azores and over the eastern US is forcing low pressure from north to south, rather than west to east according to the GFS. This will leave us in cold north westerlies and possible temporary northerlies, according to the GFS. There is wintry conditions in there for the north, not so much for the south.

Since I have been on this forum, which hasn't been long, people including myself, have been saying cold is on the way, it should be snowing by 16th January, the ECM looks amazing, even though it has always been wrong etc etc etc. The fact of the matter is that the GFS is calling the shots this winter and it does matter what is happening in the US this winter too. Until the GFS starts showing cold CONSISTENTLY and the vortex is weakened, halting all that cold air flowing into the north atlantic, we are stuck with mild atlantic driven boredom.

The azores high is never going to be left alone to build north and that is why it does matter what is happening in America, when it comes to our weather.

Yes it's too far out and subject to change, meanwhile the GFS wants to bring brief cold snaps as depressions clear and swing in a northerly, could be some snow showers in the usual favoured spots, but not LONDON.

We are stuck in this atlantic driven weather pattern for the whole month according to the models. Our only hope is that the block to our east doesn't vanish completely as it could push further west should the atlantic weaken come February, which can and has happen. We seem to be getting one mild winter and one cold winter recently. Not the bad old days when it was 14c in Feburary and people were out without coats in the middle of winter. Whatnhas happened to the Stratospheric warming event, is it over?

The GFS is awful for coldies and for people flooded out of their houses, it continues to bring low after low after low.

That is a monster block building to our east, I can see it holding and influencing our weather in the near future.

I take it there is still just too much energy to the north preventing the azores high from moving up there? Isn't the atlantic going to become less active this wniter, it has been on the go since October, it deserves a rest.

Could that nasty azores high link with the scandi high and push north, creating a strong easterly flow?

The Gem is not the most reliable model at the best of times. It was showing a decent cold spell not too long ago.

JMA is going for a progressively colder scenario as we head towards the end of January and into February. The ECMWF attempts to set up an easterly which fails three times, but succeeds on the fourth attempt come the end of next week. So cheer up people and don't take each model run literally, it's the final evolution that's important and most models are going for cold.

I think that a cold spell will eventually be upon us no matter how many times the models change their minds and I have heard a whisper of a sudden stratospheric warming event happening too, which was not on the cards a couple of days ago. Does anybody know where this news of a SSW has come from?

GEM has bitterly cold easterly, GFS easterly being pushed further back, ECM brings eventual easterly, who will be right?

We should not get carried away until we have cross model agreement. We have agreement that it will get colder, the rest is if but and maybe scenarios. Easterlies can vanish as quickly as they arrive on models.

We shouldn't get carried away people, many an easterly has show up on models only to vanish, leaving forecasters red faced. I am no weather model reading experts but do we have cross model agreement of winter's arrival. If so, then woohoo!

Agreed, cross model agreement needed before i buy rock salt.

Models pretty lacklustre this morning for coldies, but I am expecting some interesting developments come the evening runs. Need the USA to warm up and weaken the jet stream.

It is an ok model, but not everyone's first choice. It has been hinting at an easterly through January before giving us the works in February and since all the other models are going nuts and sometimes showing a block to our east and then dropping it, the Korean model could be on to something. I hope so because February is a snow fest according to that model. A snowfest would lift the post festive gloom and put a smile on many forum members faces. What a way to lift the January blues, a thick , sparkling covering of snow...........sigh

The Korean long range model which was showing an easterly freeze for February, could be right after all. The models are moving in the right direction, but it remains only a hint that winter proper will arrive soon. Enjoy the weather whilst you can mildies.

48 hours of bad weather across the UK according to the GFS. Thunder, lightning and heavy rain/hail across London at the moment 8.19pm. Renewed freeze over America tomorrow and Tuesday with possible record low temps.

I agree, a pattern change will eventually occur over the poles, although the stratospheric warming event has been downgraded......again