lassie23

Weatherweb tv mentioned a cold snap in the middle of January. CFS is going for one too, but a brief one which may be extended due to the predicted Stratospheric Warming. As long as I get a fix of ice and snow, then I'm happy. Those snowless winters with 14 degrees in February in the 1990's were awful.

I wouldn't worry about the bbc or met office monthly outlook, they are a rough guide, rather than an accurate weather forecast.

Sorry John, that's me being lazy. Indeed, stratospheric warming. Last year we had sudden stratospheric warming that brought us cold and snow, this years is slower, can it still produce the goods?

SW will hopefully be large enough over Greenland and Newfoundland to disrupt the polar vortex. If we are really lucky, it will split it, then we should prepare for a colder second half of January with the S word creeping into the forecast. Until then, the models will continue to churn out atlantic storms and mild weather. Poor wildlife, the animals and insects think it is spring.

Tomorrow is looking awful, possible sting jet development.

Storm after storm is the message of the models. However, they will be taking a different route towards the UK leading to brief northerly outbreaks and maybe some of the white stuff.

Any sign of northern blocking on any models today?

The jet continues to rule for now!

New years eve could be one for staying indoors.

The cold keeps getting pushed further and further into January. It was looking as though snow would be falling on the 10th of January, now not looking so likely.

It can still snow when it's rather cold. Or would we need a northerly instead of an E/NE for our best chance of snow, considering that the continent is milder than usual?

it'll be spring by the time all those steps fall into place.Typical!

Thanks for the sound advice timmytour. I never knew that artic ice had risen by 60%. You could be onto something with your theory.

Is it true that a SSW event is about to take place, can this change things? Do the models pick up on such an event? James Madden, Johnathan Powell and Mr Vogan must be praying for one.

Thanks for the welcome Steve! So I take it that as long as bitter air is spilling out of Eastern Canada into the Atlantic, then that fuels an endless supply of storms for the UK. That is a pretty depressing scenario and so is a winter with no snow, it's been a while since that happened. Has there ever been a winter with all atlantic driven weather before? Surely it can't go on for another 3 months........can it?

It's my very first post on a weather forum anywhere in the world. Everyone with their superior knowledge on here makes me feel so dumb and I haven't had the guts to post before. So forgive me if I ask a stupid question, like whatever happened to the new mini ice age and the slowing of the jet stream? This winter has been an atlantic onslaught and the trees in my garden are starting to bud. Which of the models predicted this MILD stormy early winter and which one has been performing best with the modelling of these storms? We really could do with some cold, I saw a wasp in my cat's dinner bowl and it's December.