ALL ABOARD

Couldnt agree more, ive noticed over the last few runs the gfs wants to strengthen the arctic high. At one point it reaches 1055mb hopefully this trend continues .. could be an interesting FI coming up? Ukmo goes the same way could be a very busy day in here today

Beat me to it ....

Gfs has another go in deep fi of reinvigorating the arctic high.. Overall we can firmly say a change is on the way whether it falls for us this time is yet to be seen. Await the ecm with interest, will it follow ukmo, gem or gfs? place your bets...

for comparison at 144 ukmo Gfs Gem As we can see at 144 Gem and ukmo manage to push more waa into the artic where as the gfs cuts the height rises off over ne usa.

Lets hope by tonight we will be seeing the polar vortex looking like this. On a more serious note and as a newbie to commenting on this forum (although I have been lurking for some years) most of the gefs ensembles have a complete northern hemisphere change occurring.. To further this with the recent comments from Ian f regarding any uncertainty I think that this could be the most positive stage of winter so far from a coldies perspective. Any help if im incorrect regarding the ensembles would be gratefully appreciated and would help me a lot.

Can you imagine that would just be our luckkk...... Cold spreading into africa?

Gfs goes the same way as 00zs ECMWF with better amplification at 162 hours than previous run... ?