ALL ABOARD

Yes blue. Awesome change to be fair. By 150 were off. (see previous edited post)

Icon first out of the blocks. Nice steady start compared to its 6z output. By the 18th we have heights reaching up towards the pole.

Agreed although I think this run the high is going to be sucked uptowards scandi?

3 charts from the GEFS all at +384 showing a very similar pattern. 2010 I raise you. JFF. Perb 16 wed be part of the new Artic.

Ian F retweeted this yesterday so make lf of it what you will. Highlighting for part about cold pooling from Asia.

Perb 15 please.

ECMWF monthlies anyone?

Been a poor show from the ECM this winter so far will attach some comparisons later, as previously noted verification stats are kind of useless for our tiny island, incremental small changes affect the UK in large way.

Thanks chio ?

I have no idea, hopefully one of the more knowledgable can explain later in a bit more detail. Im guessing a final warming in winter may lead to some fancinating charts but I may be way wide of the mark.

Just read online that the 10hPa 60N zonal mean wind is due to stay easterly for over 10 days and ""This would *not* fit the criteria of a mid-winter SSW defined in Charlton and Polvani (2007). They specify events in which the zonal winds stays easterly for more than 10 consecutive days as final warmings.""

I agree with you mucka and the way im reading the Met update over the last three days is that any atlantic influence will be met with a cold block already in situ over the UK. Given that the models have continued to trend to a more mobile outlook, im suprised the text hasnt really changed given that its been almost three days of new information. Interesting times ahead ?

Agreed. But given continious updates from met with regards to the battleground conditions continuing across the UK, surely cant be discounted.

By 150 we have two GEFS ensembles that go this route... Can we competly ignore these at such a short lead time?

So even with the slightly less favourable outlook from the ecm for HLB (not that I put much credence into it as it has been pretty poor recently) apparently by 264 all 51 members show heights rising over scandanavia. See tweet from Ian F.

Any examples blue? Just so we can learn some more.

interesting times ahead.

I will just leave this here to cheer everyone up. First signs of SSW starting to show up?

Just tried to get some info of Fergie on twitter as at one o'clock today I was sitting in work wondering what could go wrong after reading the met update from today and musings on twitter. It seemed we were actually going to be lucky for once. (ignoring the cold from the east and chances of snow) I was hoping to see the block continue to grow in strength with the cold in situ. Looks like for the time being the atlantic is going to gain the slight upper hand but with the MJO moving into phase 8 and the SSW all but being confirmed by Glosea and other models, how long until we start to see more amplication.

Control?? Op?? Upgrade?????

First Cobra run I have seen in a whileeeee???

Ian , has glosea 5 remained steadfast in its approach to mid month onwards or has it waned recently as well ? I'm guessing this 'different mode' would only back up what glosea 5 has been turning out and if it is then I take my hat of to it ...

Have you got the link for this be interesting to watch what they have to say ?