ALL ABOARD
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
ALL ABOARD replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Down she goes... Small adjustments from here, I.E higher heights, shallower low and it could be a decent slider. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
ALL ABOARD replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
ALL ABOARD replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just a quick one. Currently sitting in my house with 2-3cm of snow outside. Missed by everyone? All this with uppers of minus 2 showing on the 850hpa charts. Moving forward the NH pattern is still in a favourable position for us and if the trop and strat disconnect continues and the zonal wind speed slows down we could have further surprises. -
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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
ALL ABOARD replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Only have to look back at this time last year to realise it can all change in the blink of an eye. As we all know that's not what transpired. -
Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019
ALL ABOARD replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Legend has it, that the run is so cold it's frozen solid. -
Yes as others have alluded too, front is decaying rapidly, slight dusting so far but not expecting much more and in fact places like Swansea with a little height could do better than the valleys. I have been watching the front decay about 20 miles south of me all day, which is surprising given some of the models wanted to take the percipitation towards Manchester. Awh well onto the next one.
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Latest run will be tonight.
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T+96 and the low has separated into two. Looking much better.
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GFSP has the snow event still for southern England maybe glancing blow for South Wales on Tuesday. Before another band of snow for Wales and Southern England again on Thursday as the cold never really goes anywhere.
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You couldn't ask for better on either update tbh. Lows scirting into biscay with hopefully cold air entrenched.
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Feels like the longest chase in history waiting for the reversal to appear. But here it is. What is evident as was pointed out earlier in the year is there is going to be enough energy left in the PV to have low pressure systems sliding under the block. Win win? Also prevents the dreaded West based NAO
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Definer signs of the downwelling by 240 as low pressure begins to meander around.
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Not a bad little educated guess. I wonder if as Blue stated earlier we are staring down the barrel of a scandi high with lows scooting under. Imagine spending all winter chasing a greenie high to get a scandi one instead.
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Scandi? GFSP remains cold throughout. Plenty of snow chances for everyone. As Slack troughs traverse on a NW to Se axis. The azores high isn't aloud to nudge in and this means any warm sector's are kept at bay. At 240 there's a hint that the ridge will head to scandi. But who knows.
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Im waiting for the 192 to say boom. But its taking ages, Slack flow.. Minus 8 uppers. Plenty of percipitation. But it stays out in the channel. Haha.
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Slight warming's will be evident now throughout the rest of winter until we decend onto the final warming.. Nothing exciting as of yet. Also bare in mind that you wouldn't want another split or significant warming unless you want a cold spring. As far as the strat is concerned it can go along its merry way now until the final warming. Its the weather at the ground we should be now concentrating on.
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