ALL ABOARD

A glitch but I actually love this view? Puts everything we all love into perspective. Seeing our beautiful planet doing its thing. Looks like we're viewing from space.

Yes some very low minima in there. Subsequently the strat is heating up in this run. The 6z could finish with another Greenland push as that low skirts through and the Atlantic ridge reamplifies.

Not quite going to make it on this run as the secondary high pressure around Russia deflects the cold from reaching us. All very positive moving forward though.

Houston we have lift off?

Totally agree last few years it's gone against both GFS and ECM consistently at 144 and more often than not had to climb down. I also feel it chops and changes every run even within the 144 timescale.

Not made up but unlikely to happen.

Fantasy Island.

Is cold that grows in situ likely to be harder to shift than cold carried in by winds? Usually when we have a high pressure system over scandi we have a wrap around of cold air that feeds along the isobars towards the UK. If Europe develops its own cold pool due to the omnipresent high pressure would that mean the air is denser and harder to shift?

Is that a mid Atlantic UK scandi Russian high I see? Huge area of high pressure. Getting toasty up top too.

Yes.. Theoretically going forward that low out west in the Atlantic would stall against the block and head towards Greenland allowing the heights in the Atlantic to ridge into scandi to join forces with the Russian high. Blocking unite!

Icon starting to build heights towards scandi on 18z

Yes given this chart at face value it wouldn't be viable. Just going forward hopefully the Russian high becomes cut off and we then see the wrap around required. Could take a few days (weeks with how far the cold is north) Or fingers crossed it moves to scandi then onwards to griceland and we get an Atlantic low skirting over the top and dropping down towards scandi introducing the cold air. All very hypothetical, but nice to see the Atlantic continue to be disrupted.

Here's the mean of the GFS 6z at 192. Can see the Russian high beginning to flex towards scandi Low pressure on a southerly tracking jet And we maintain low anomalies across Europe. Scandi high with sliders anyone?

Yes subsequently the majority of the GFS ensembles go for a scandi block by 192.

Yes bit of a mehhhh pattern after all the excitement this morning. Hopefully we can see a flip back this afternoon. What' strikes me is the inability of the atmosphere to promote high latitude blocking over the last couple of years. Even when it looks like the only possible way, it is scuppered. Normally it's a shortwave calamity but this time it's a combination of shortwaves and that Huge Russian high causing a back up of Atlantic lows that then have no option to meander about and find ways of merging. The chase for an illusive Greenland high is now in its tenth year.

Great place to be in heading into the start of winter. Normall all them lows would have phased and we would be staring down the barrel of a storm.

If that's a West based nao then I want in On a more serious note, a West based NAO cannot be achieved due to the remaining low heights and low pressure still located over Greenland? I may be wrong though.

As a very small Chinese man once said "Patience Daniel son" Cold wrap around coming at 306.

100 percent agree. Although I did post in the early winter discussion thread how snowfall can never be 100% accurately focused, dosent matter who you are. 6z slightly better in terms of heights around Iceland.

He literally just means the icon has stopped coming out

Here is a prime example of cold uppers not being the everything. 14th November 2019 at 108 asl South Wales Predicted pattern What transpired. Nobody had even mentioned the word snow. And I for one for all my years of lurking in these threads didn't even have a scooby it was coming.

Dayummmm few days short. What a spectacular run though.

Here she comes??

Deep into FI now over a cold 18z. But the Atlantic ridge is going north again. With that huge scandi high in place can we see a Greenland high just before the end?

Game over for the Atlantic at 192...