ALL ABOARD

These the same forecasters that had 100% confidence in the GFS initial handling of the winter storm? Tongue and cheek BTW

Not a fan if I'm honest. Should just go back to one hunt for cold thread. Thought it worked a lot better.

Yes Interesting, Im surprised by how there remains no appetite by any of the models to remove the PV from its long standing home and how long its taking for any downwelling to occur. The angle of the jet and the persistence of the azores high is actually hindering our chances as warm air is meeting cold dense air exactly where we don't want it to be. Firing up the jet and shutting down any decent chance of a ridge.

That PV is rampant. Still no sign in the next 10 days of any influence from the downwelling of the SSW.

Yeah weird it sais hidden on mine haha. God knows.

If people are hell bent on posting 'winters over' posts then that's fair enough, but why are you still in the model output thread searching for cold? I understand the frustration because so far this winter we've been so close to something memorable and long lasting but unfortunately this is the british weather and it loves to tease us. It's always a shame when a pattern collapses so close but does that put me off searching for the next pattern that may be 10 days away? No. Why you may ask? Because a big part of it for me is the chase and trying to learn why it goes wrong even when everything looks right. So where are we moving forward? All models now begging to pick up on the downwelling of the SSW. GFS maybe a little to quick the other day when it was showing us those wintry nirvana charts and full reversal of the NH. But overall I wouldn't be suprised to see some extreme NH charts over the next couple of weeks. Greenland highs with enough vortex left in its home to prevent West based nao. Sliders with cold air entrenched? What Could possibly go wrong. On another note if it does all go Pete tong, it will be interesting to see why and how even with all the factors in our favour we still couldn't get it right. Enjoy the ride.

I read that completely different to you. He states the colder options are more likely. Yeah @Singularity, glad it wasn't just me.

Glosea backed off cold now.

The zonal winds have to return to westerly eventually otherwise it wouldn't be classed as SSW and would indeed be a final warming. No need to worry about them returning to westerly anymore, they are at easterly for more than a substantial amount of time.

Indeed. But my point still stands, I was referring to the 6z this morning. Who's to say the 12z wont show a better outcome? I was merely highlighting that each individual run should not be taken at face value.

Anyone worrying about what the GFS is showing for a period 13 days away . GFS 11th Of February 2018 for 24th Of February. Actual chart

Scandinavia growing its own cold pool. Immense cold for Europe in the coming weeks me thinks.

Given the 6z has now jumped ship of its Atlantic dominated dross I would be surprised not to see Exeter drop their mobile spell.

There's no plausible way apart from the way it's going then? First signs of a southerly tracking jet that wants to undercut the high. Amen.

The UKMO, ECM and GFS have all been very poor so far this year. So lets stop reviewing the models and slate them all instead. ICON much better run, Do I Think its plausible? Yes. Will I get worked up if its wrong and GFS out does it? No. Will I continue to use it? Dam right I will. Be this the hunt for cold thread and what not.

Nevermind 156 we going north at 144 ish

Right here we gooo. Big Christmas night incoming from the 18z. Hopefully it's been at the pub since this morning and we can all go to bed dreaming of a white errrrr 2019? Merry Christmas everyone. Keep an eye at 156ish for an attempt to go north.

Yes Mondays and Thursdays between 10 and 10.10. Agreed, but maybe it knows its Christmas eve and we need cheering up. On another note UKMO has been terrible this year I can't remember it having one 144hr chart even remarkably close(my humble opinion) from just viewing at face value.

50 mins and counting if I'm not in correct?

You couldn't make it up though could you on this run... Most of the artic spills into europe and would probably end up with you being able to skate from Norway to Greece yet we would all be sitting in our gardens with a jacket sipping magheritas and watching new ice caps form across the pond. Great watching tho

New warming on 12z,,, Sign of things to come hopefully or realising its out of kilter with the pack....

Here is today's update. At the start of this period it is most likely that southern parts will be mostly dry, whilst further north it should be more changeable with spells of rain. The weather will probably turn more unsettled for a time during early January. Showers or longer spells of rain, along with strong winds, are likely to affect most parts with some hill snow in the north. Further into January there is an increased chance of a colder but drier than average spell, with the potential for snow across many areas. Despite this, some milder, wetter and windier interludes remain possible throughout the period.

GFS and PARA still massively apart. Some would even say 'Poles' apart...

He's talking about the GFS OP with regards to reversal in the Strat.