ALL ABOARD

hmmm going the wrong way. Not saying it wont change on subsequent runs but GFS hasn't really bought into it at all. (the split and reversal of winds) Hope GLOSEA has this nailed if I'm honest as could end up being the winter of so near yet so far.

Icon slightly better at 120. 18z 12z

Yes agree, but by now I would be expecting them to be pretty much at least attempting to follow the op. If anything they are heading further in the other direction and actually the they all support each other in the warming continuing around Scandi with some warming into Europe.

Anyone else really confused by how GFS OP continues to be out of sync with its own suite WRT to the temps. This at 324Hrs from GFS OP. Control- Perb 4 Perb 10 Perb 14 These are just a few examples but more or less all of them have a more pronounced displacement warming than the op

Because its a GIF , IF you could view it live it continues to show what is stated.

It's not. Summer sun posted one but it hadn't updated. Here is today's. Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

If you were happy with yesterdays MET update take a look at todays. Northerly or Easting winds dominating with frontal systems bumping into the west to produce frontal snow. Christmas come early?

WOW. Christmas just came early.

I can understand what your saying but I actuay regard the icon quite highly as in February with regards to the easterly it pretty much outdid every other model. let's not forget no model has covered itself past the 120 in to much glory.

Just to follow up my earlier tweet.

Ian Fergusson liked both of these posts so presuming we are still going to see a split. I know he touted the 9th of Jan for first day winds revert to easterly so maybe its a little early to become dispondant. Also we have Glosea showing a displacement followed by a split and I am yet to see it faulter wrt to the strat.

Couple of tweets from Ian F regarding timings of SSW. So all still to play for and suggestions of GFS being slightly to aggressive at this given time?...

GFS para strat charts now going for an initial warming followed up by another warming a few days later see below. Initial warming. Relaxation slightly Renewed burst.

I know we have all the background signals and what not but when was the last time we actually saw a decent run? Feels like an eternity, just half hearted attempts at ridges being bowled away by low pressure constantly. Please weather gods just one chart a day be nice.

Any links would like to watch ? If possible,

Hope to see something along these lines tomorrow. Fingers crossed. UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 9 Jan 2019: The end of 2018 is likely to remain fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, as we head into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, but also an increasing chance of some snow showers and night-time frosts. Things will then become bitterly cold with wide spread heavy snow and below average temperatures which will lead to the sea around the British isles freezing and allowing frost fairs to be held on the Thames. Communities will become cut off for weeks at times and cities will grind to a halt as grit supplies run low. This theme will continue with temperatures ranging between -10 and -30 for the rest of winter. Just for Feb..

That's an upgrade to me. 'Snow showers' is a brave call this far out and they don't mention solely in the north. Slowly slowly catchy monkey... Oops spelling mistake

Glosea update.

Icon out to 120 on the 18z. Atlantic stalling, lows becoming shallower, heights building to the north, azores high trying to ridge towards scandi as the low stalls out west. Can we be sure the Atlantic is going to come in at all? What a turn of events if we went from cold and snow to mild and wet to very wet and windy to sliders to the block flexing to no Atlantic at all? Interesting none the less, and probably why every year I find myself back for the chase.

Surely a split wouldn't be to far away if these verfied...

Wow. I'm pretty sure a split wouldn't be far away.

Para gets the warming to +12.. Almost could catch a sun tan.

Trough distruption beginning to rear its head?

Look at the difference between the GFS at 78 hours 06z and 72 hours on the 12z the difference in westward correction and also WAA is undeniable.