ALL ABOARD

Some times you just get a feeling that we may get lucky. 288-294 High pressure grows on its own with no help from any evident WAA. Reinforces that were going to be prone to blocking early this winter.

Icon is trying it's best slightly more amplified with the Atlantic ridge at +96

Have we had a SSW? What a pattern to start winter with. One run and not to be taken in isolation. Hopefully these charts can continue.

216 here comes the next one. Heights building towards Iceland. You can see the low disrupting already.

The old saying wedges make sledges looks like it may be making a December special soon. 06z is a good example of how small pockets of heights across Iceland can allow sliders. Slack airflow and heavy percipation and you cant rule out a snowflake falling anywhere.

GFS better at 114 with the ridge. Up she goes??

wow

Theoretically speaking.. The longer the strat vortex remains at record strength.. The more cold is bottled up over the artic.. Allows more ice to refreeze for longer? Its a shame we can't access data from the last ice age to see wether a well organised strat actually increases sea ice growth and thus bigger freezes.

12z GFS at 144.... No low and uppers look to be slightly lower.....

Massive shift post 240 with regards to the PV reforming as per GFS 12z.

How much elevation we thinking that we're going need for these incoming northwesterlies?? Cant remember ever getting a snow shower from one but I'm only a young un.

If you had to draw a shocking winter chart for the start of February I think it would look somthing like this.. Have I travelled back in time to december??

Absoluetly insane nick. Not to say it will come off mind you, but flicking through the GFS the PV is a monster. Low solar activity and above average sea ice the main factors ?

Yes it's truly remarkable that even when we have the big 3 on board at a reasonable timescale it still goes tits up. Horrible winter with the jet once again riding over the top... The long wait for a decent ridge bypasses us again.

Few more frames and we'd be looking at a split too.

Is there anyway you can compare the noaa ice and snow cover charts from this year compared to years from 2000's? Just want to see the difference visually as opposed to the graphs posted by MIA MIA great post BTW, love coming on here to read them.

Game on?

Wasn't quite the battleground I was referring to. Yes indeed a good spell that occurred due to the SSW, but even then the low pressure migrated north through France. As appose to sliding against an already in situ block.

Ready to start chasing some warmth now.. Its been an abismal winter apart from the suprise snowfall I had back in November. Were going through a period where northern blocking is becoming harder and harder to establish.. I can't remember the last time we had a proper battleground scenario, its been to long. Low solar activity affecting our weather is another one off the list of positives in regards to promoting colder UK weather.

Great Post MIA Can we have the data in a table graph so I can nose at please. Kind regards

Imagine how frustrating it would be that even with all our limited understanding there could be a driver out there that we have not yet discovered.

Well my comment last night about small steps has gone the wrong way.. We just can't seem to get the heights to play ball and this has been a recurring theme for a while now. I can't remember when we last saw a decent undercut from a cold high already in situ or a northerly. Even 2018 with the split the low still didn't undercut and actually headed north towards the UK from iberia.

By the end though you'd be able to probably walk to Iceland from Scotland ?️

Slow and steady.. I always prefer when you have subtle upgrades on a run to run basis. Wild flips never rarely come off.. Of course tomorrow the pattern may shift the other way but as someone else has posted above me, the most interesting part is that each run is moving towards the high moving west then towards Greenland as the lower heights drain east with the main PV chunk. Interesting times ahead and if we can get enough amplitude of that high we could all probably accept the last two months for the final outcome.

Here she comes and about bloody time.