KyleHenry
-
Posts
304 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by KyleHenry
-
-
One point of note from GFS and GFS(P) is that from 108 hours onwards the ridging shows a constant 1050 mb.
-
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Oh dear what drama!
The ECM is close to delivering significant snow to parts of the UK with D-Day T168hrs as the trough disruption there will either have people dusting off the sledges or getting the umbrellas out.
The GFS isn't as good but does weaken the overblown low coming from the east but little trough disruption.
The UKMO has a poorly orientated high but at T144hrs that might still go onto develop some undercutting.
In these situations you want the high aligned more ne/sw and facing the incoming trough.
Very difficult call from this far out, anything could happen.
Complex and fascinating.
European WAA up first, allows us to see how high a latitude the ridging can get and how strong HP system can become.
Euro WAA requires the assistance from US West coast WAA to become more established.
Too much ridging over an extended period from US WAA hampers latitude of where Scandinavian/Kara ridge establishes by not allowing Trop vortex to move back towards Northern Canada.
It is great model viewing.
-
2
-
-
4 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:
Pretty good UKMO tonight
144 sees the cold starting to get shoved west whilst the trigger low lines up in the atlantic
if we are going to get this cold is around the 192 - 216 mark...
s
WAA Europe assisted by WAA light on US West Cosast as it prevents further Cold air pool assisting Greenland 496Dam increasing and so allows more time for WAA Europe to hold.
Kara Sea HP to take hold.
-
1
-
-
5 hours ago, Recretos said:
Well, yes I think that too partially, but thinking or believing should not bend the facts a bit, since someone who doesnt know this subject, might get confused when seeing a minor warming with wave 2 or major warming with wave 1. Its just to reduce possible confusion. Wave 1 is a wave 1¸ and wave 2 is wave 2. And minor SSW is minor, and major SSW is major. If there would only be minor SSWs from wave 1s, than I wouldn't say anything, and the same goes for wave 2. The fact is, that one must not link specific wave numbers to specific SSW types, because the stratosphere does not work that way.
We had wave 1 major SSW in 12/13 season, and strong wave 2 with no major or even minor SSW in 13/14 season.
And again, the final warming is just a secondary name, or kinda like a suffix to the SSW. You can have the final warming without an SSW, and you can have an SSW without the final warming. Its just something that is added to the event later, if the vortex fails to recuperate.
Dont get me wrong, I am learning too, as always, and I am just trying to explain a thing or two a bit further, so there wont be any confusion. I know what you meant, but someone who does not know this field very well, might find some things confusing or contradicting down the line.
happy holidays,
Regards
You are ready in my opinion to give your theory on how earth circularity/atmospheric systems work. From 100Hpa to 1 Hpa and all exterior influences.
The reason why is because you are more in tune with all factors and I know this from bardarbunga eruption and your interest in its process. That you could give your hypothesis of the physics involved.
Bricklayer's opinion has prompted in his post enough for you to give a similar reply and in my opinion a more detailed surmise.
If you do, I know in advance that I will agree to the logic you will use. If not I wait for your scientific paper disclosing your thoughts with antisapation.
Merry Christmas my friend to you and your family,
-
1
-
-
Latest GFS at 384z has lost the warming but placed the wave and position of the core cold Siberia bound, we know from previous years that the GFS is reliable at picking up signal but can be out by 7-14 days.
We are at the interesting point of the year and I see us looking at Strat charts on Christmas Day.
-
2
-
-
The signal is faint but in the outer reaches of GFS at 384z on 7th January 2016 could be the beginning of the elusive SSW. More runs needed.
-
1 hour ago, Ravelin said:
How can you be so sure of that? At 144z the UKMO to my eyes has a similar pattern to the GFS and it's the ECM that's odd one out...
The strength of the ++NAO, and the low pressure systems it sends our way.
The upcoming WAA has no foundation from the East to allow it traction to hold and as ever it will be steamrolled East wards.
This is the first true attempt to change the pattern.
Indian Ocean forcing to finally dissipate and +PNA emerges at years end.
Then the hold of El Niño ends and more fluidity to our pattern with assistance from SSW.
-
3
-
-
43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Nope
Close but just too large a pool of DAM 496 air over Greenland to put in any resistance.
ECMWF has the correct pattern, whereas the GFS has lost pattern past 144z.
We all know what that means,2/3 week wait for next chance.
Painful as it is to accept for others we are peak El Niño phase for NW Europe but it's no 1997, the year of no winter.
-
1
-
-
15 hours ago, Frank_Wx said:
If Tropospheric ridges drive splits in the lower Strat, what is there to drive splits further upstream?
One factor is where Brewer Dobson concentration forms and for it to locate in the correct Geo planetary position (which it currently is) can assist the EAMT events.
As it heats Stratosphere via UV rad it can form a bridge or a target for Trop wave to advance towards in altitude. May not be enough during this wave phase but you just feel it will by the next if all continues as is.
-
1
-
-
ECMWF wants a -AO with a 1040 mb HP.
-
2
-
-
On 3 December 2015 14:53:46, Glacier Point said:
.. and this little bomb is interesting...
Deep low pressure system tracking through the North Pacific trough, allied to around 10 days worth of low level wave forcing in the region. Very amplified Pacific sector as well, strong +dt/daam overlaying this, and +MT over N. America within 5 days.
That (little bomb) and the rest that follows it over next 14 days really is a tropospheric clay pigeon launcher of warm air that fuels the upcoming MT event.
Coinciding with Ozone concentrations in that launch area, the El Niño has possibly peaked.
It does look like Winter Solstice 22nd Dec for SSW opportunity.
-
2
-
-
The pattern of growth is all about Bering Sea and NW US/Canada for next Three weeks.
-
Comparison chart to ozone concentration.
Just a friendly nudge into the beast. Or a Will Carling tackle on Jonah Lomu.
-
What are peoples' thoughts on this Asian warming? It is fairly weak and doesn't appear to be getting any stronger but it seems to be enough to disrupt the vortex at the top. Are we looking at a subtle pincer attack on the strat vortex taking place, from the top down and up from the troposphere?
With a lack of any strong wave activity, I wonder if a low level but importantly, sustained, warming would be sufficient to work its way down through the ever growing vortex or will it likely just hit a brick wall? I'm going for the latter as I suppose a bit of vortex disruption at the top is one thing, infiltrating this beast mid level with a W-QBO fuelling it, is likely to be altogether another thing.
I'm watching BDO, concentration and it does link geographically to area of the warming at 10 hPa.
-
Comparisons to Winter of 2009/10 are a false dawn. Even though analog years have some upper pattern similarities.
Similar to 2009 NW Europe and Eastern U.S. are heading towards an above average November/December, 2 metre temps.
You only have to look at 10hPa levels pattern and temperatures on GFS archives to see the difference is vast.
Compare Ozone concentration in Dobson Units on map and see that the totals in 2009 far out weigh 2015.
http://es-ee.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/Curr_allmap_g.htm
-
im not extremely clued up when it comes to the strat but is this chart a strat warming or a error on the gfs?
Not this time, the signal can be picked out at approx 300z on GFS and further if you can read other atmospheric drivers.
When the warming is detected, 9 times out of 10 it will occur give or take approx 1 week.
There is always a but, even when event occurs the pattern still needs to be positioned correctly for NW Europe to be flooded with cold air at surface.
So with super El Niño ongoing a late event, end of Jan 2016 is more likely.
If this year doesn't work out, one of the winters from 2016-2023 will produce another 2009/2010 event for us if not more blocked pattern due to solar min and in one which is an EQBO.
No stress involved when you trust the Strat.
-
3
-
-
Lock down mode in place from surface through to trophisphere.
Stratosphere included and it comes as no surprise due to strength of El Niño.
Will do for next 8 weeks minimum.
What it does mean is the cold air is tightly contained. The break out I feel will be impressive when it's released.
-
4
-
-
Caution with MJO assessment currently however... as UKMO note: "...MJO not having much predictive value at present. Models had been suggesting that it should be emerging into Phase 1 by now (and into Phase 2 subsequently), however confidence in this was always low due to contamination from tropical storms messing up the OLR assimilation."
As you say Fergie, regarding OLR. The 4th Kelvin wave has begun down welling in region ENSO 1.2.
Hence the opening for a westerly wind burst pushing MJO into phase 2.
MJO will most likely return to COD and emerge back into phases 5 or 6.
El Niño is king driver until it's demise. The levels of thermal energy stored in the Pacific sink just shows how much it dictates global weather patterns.
-
2
-
-
The wildcard MJO event looks odds on to take place now. Is this the atmosphere giving the El Nino the middle finger? Checking the GWO outlook from GEFS to see whether this MJO event might bring about an east-Asian MT event, I see little sign - which if I'm right is a reflection of the model not projecting the MJO to progress beyond the western Indian Ocean. ECMF on the other hand... makes me think about how entertaining it would be to see wave breaking into the strat. from an EAMT followed by wave breaking via the Rockies in line with a typical El Nino configuration. What would you say the odds are off that... or am I straying wide of the mark?
I can see where ECMF might be coming from, given that the Indian Ocean continues to feature impressively strong and widespread positive SST anomalies. Not that co-operation from the atmosphere is even close to a given, of course.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif[/El Niño remains the big show. Aleutian Low moving in to place correlating with MJO's forecasted high phase 2. Position of low in NW Pacific still unknown.
Down stream is highlighting ++ NAO.
-
MJO predicted to go into strong phase 2 but it does walk the line of phase 1, which has added interest for us.http://iceagenow.info/2015/10/greenland-blowing-away-ice-growth-records/
Interesting information
BFTP
El Niño upstream pattern causing strong ++NAO to lower Greenland temps.
NW wind source for UK, temps lowered with cold SSTs. First snows for the Highlands look likely.
-
1
-
-
The Typhoons are sending gravity waves if they are large enough Cat 4 plus and moisture towards Aleutians region. Aleutian low ensues.
As illustrated from map Alaska is warmer, rain belt through Southern States and warmer on East Coast.
If El Niño stays true to known effects on US then the jet stream will spill Arctic air into North Atlantic under a + NAO.
UK especially NW will come under NW lows and transient Notherlies.
Must factor in colder SST's regarding moisture levels.
Regarding the Polar Vortex we have to wait until October regarding position and overall temps of the Stratophere to make a call.
At a guess it will be anchored where it has been for last two years so some will be thinking later on towards the end of Winter for SSW's to have desired effect.
As always we have to wait and Solar output is beginning to come into play.
-
The first forecasted -50C at 10hPa. Courtesy of http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/
-
1
-
-
MJO will be contained for some time, interesting to see which sector it will break out at.
Also when it will as El Niño continues current pattern.
-
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/8695/2015/acp-15-8695-2015.html
Paper more akin to 2017 onwards.
We had wave 1 major SSW in 12/13 season, and strong wave 2 with no major or even minor SSW in 13/14 season.
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Wave 2 and Tropispheric forcing putting serious pressure on PV, if the timings hold to current schedule.
Even a super strength PV can't take a Chinese arm burn. More pressure will be needed to keep on top of reformation but there is much to like.