Stu_London

CET 10/04/12-09/04/13 - 8.94C I would say that is it now for the drops - another chance in the second half of may to go below this.

there isn't really any clear signal for the sort of warmth needed for that yet, so I would say unlikely. It does look like the prolonged spell well below average is behind us and not coming back, so a rising CET for most of the month looks likely. I'd be happy with 7C (if i'd entered!)

3.2C to the 7th Confirmed as the coldest 1st week in April since 1922. Last night was the first CET minimum over 0C for 15 days We still haven't had a minimum over 1.5C since 16th March. Staggering given the vast majority of those stats are post equinox.

CET 07.04.12-06.04.13 8.97C Further small drops likely this week (toward 8.9C) before we get a sharp rise next weekend (according to forecasts!) probably back towards 9C

Whilst this might be correct - there is a dataset there and I will continue to use.

Actually the daily CET data goes back to 1772. 1st April 1917 to 7th April 1917 is the coldest I can find at 1.7C 1st April 1922 to 7th April 1922 was 2.8C This will be the coldest 1st week since those two dates and probably in the top ten coldest 1st weeks of April since 1772

Yes - you are absolutely right. Looks like the warmer weather seems to be getting shunted back again on this mornings models so still worth looking out to see if we can beat the 8.86C in December 2010. The 4th-6th was pretty cold in 2012, so not much chance there of getting it to fall. the period from the 7th-12th April 2012, averaged about 8C - I think we might see lower values this year if the cold hangs about as most people seem to be dreading now!

you are right, most of April 2012 and the first part of May 2012 was very much on the cool side. I'm guessing that we might get down to about 9.95C before rising again.

03/04/12-02/04/13 CET = 9.00C Sub 9 Tomorrow

I think it would have been pretty spectactular in the 80s and any other decade in the last 50 years. The longevity of the cold spell and the fact that it was pretty much a nationwide event are the standout facts.

On the subject of poor forecasting of minimas, it's been a feature of the winter. GFS has consistently under estimated the amount of cloud cover. As I've mentioned before, the CET for winter and I include March in that now also, could have been quite a lot lower had we experienced the levels of cloud cover we normally might expect (although in the case of March this would have produced some higher maxima) So as others have pointed, the story this winter has been one of dramatic record breaking low maxima.

I'm with Weather History on this one 2.96 is definately a lower number than 3. Ok - if that was the final figure then it would go down in history as being 3.0 - but it isn't and there are two more days of data - but as things stand we are sub 3

If March comes in at 2.8C (which is my best estimate at the moment), the rolling annual CET will be 9.03C Statisitically we are up against a cool April 2012 (arguably when all this northern blocking and southern position of jet phase that we are in started this time last year almost to the day), but I still fancy April 2013 will start colder than April 2012. We could go sub 9C in running by April 3rd if the first 3 days average less 3C. Similarly a first week of 4.4C would get us sub 9C. To get down to a CET in running of 8.85C (which would be a 26 year low), we'd need afirst 2 weeks of April to come in at a rather improbable 2.2C. If the cold pattern persists however another bite of that cherry towards the end of May, if not before.

06z GFS might be a reality check. Mins not so severe this week and a BIG warmup in the last few days. I would say sub 4 looks in the bag, but thoughts of sub 3 can be banished if that comes anywhere near fruition

We need March to be 2.4C for the rolling annual CET to be sub 9C, probably just outside touching distance unless Hadley go mad with their end of month adjustments. Excellent chance of sub 9.1C though - still a bit to further to go before we beat 8.86C set near the end of 2010, which will have been the coldest since the late 1980s where we probably had some periods in the mid 8Cs. Beyond that you need to go back to the period 1st March 1962 to 28th February 1963, for a very little age rolling CET of 7.63C

end of month adjustments to factor in also - although they haven't been quite the banker of a further downwards adjustment of late.

I'm unable to come out a day early. Will be arriving DFW 3pm on 19th.

Not sure if this has been done before, but was thinking that March 2013 might enter into my top 5 calandar months, so thought I would start a thread. Tell me your top 5, and why. Here are mine. January 1987 - A shortish spell but simply the best snow event I have ever witnessed. Probably as severe as anything in the 19th or 20th Centuries in what otherwise would have been a rather uneventful month in terms of weather. December 2010 - Would make it on to the list if only for debunking some silly theories about cold and snow that had been doing the rounds for a few years, however was much more than that. Proved that long lasting lowland snow in England that we had seen the previous January was no fluke and delivered synoptics and weather that was stunning to witness. Only denied the spot as coldest December ever by a couple of milder days at the end of the month. August 2003 - A fitting finale to what seemed like an endless summer that started around March time. At the time I didn't much like 38C when I was trying to lay laminate flooring in my central london flat (without air conditioning), however I do see the historical significance of it now and with the relative lack of decent summers since (except 2006), would gladly welcome back some summer sun and heat. February 1986 - A very cold but uneventful month for most, unless you lived in the west country (which I did at the time) where frontal systems bumping into the block produced 3 separate snow events that would normally be 1 in 20 year events. July 1983 - Very warm and thundery - once again in West Country. Remember one electrical storm that lit the sky almost all night. March 2013 might get in, if it delivers a sub 3C CET. Honourable mentions to Feb 1991, Oct 1987, Feb 1979, Aug 1990, Aug 1995, Aug 1998, Jan 2010, Jul 1989. I'm sure I have missed some, so get posting.

Or course, I am cherry picking now, but a substantial part of the 4th week in March is forecast have a CET close or perhaps below 0C, against an average for that week of about 7.5c to 8.0c. I accept, December 2010 still more impressive because the cold was for the whole month.

I should have said relative severity. Which means, relative to the conditions one would normally expect at the respective times of year.

Shift the 12z 100 miles south and we might be on for a top 10 cold March on the CET series. That would be hugely noteworthy given the series is over 300 years old and contains data from the Dalton and Maunder minimum periods. Even if we don't make top 10 - this still looks like being the coldest march for many a year.

LOL @ the 12z. It's an INSANE run for the end of March. In terms of severity, easily beating December 2010. As BFTV points out, we could be easily be looking at a sub 3C march, if we verify. It might happen and it this time of year, perhaps more likely, but cold has a habit of sticking around at least a day or two longer than expected even when there a solid breakdown pattern emerges.

I'm not quite ready to call sub 4 yet, but I might be by the weekend.

Before November even, I seem to recall some of the model output forecasting a wintry spell towards the end of October. Didn't come to anything in the end, but it did cause some excitement in here.

Given where we are, the immediate forecast and the longer term trend, I think what we can say is that this won't be settled until the final week.