Stu_London

Although chilly in the lead up, the brutal cold of 87 was only about 3 to 4 days. That is why it doesn’t get mentioned in dispatches like 47, 63, 79, which were all much longer severe spells, although none had a spell as severe as 87 embedded.

87 was a freak event. Although not long lived, was probably a 1 in 250 year event in the context of current climate in terms of severity

Don’t worry. The forecast suggests it won’t be a complete BUST for your location

You will just have to make the breast of it, I’m afraid

Permanant mild sector where I am

Current Conditions 27C, Clear. A little burnt and tipsy from an afternoon of Strawberry Daqs at the pool bar. Can anyone advise on conditions expected at Gatwick on Wednesday morning as I have to drive from there to Orpington at around 7am

A shorter severe spell will undoubtedly be preferable for wildlife, the elderly, the economy, daffodils etc, so some relief from the models tonight in that respect. Personally whilst I’ve found the build up fascinating, more than 1 day of disruptive snow becomes a little tedious for me. Not withstanding that there remains significant uncertainty, we can perhaps hope that members have learned from the experience and remember next time that output past about 120 hours remains notoriously difficult to project for this little island climate of ours.

Yes it would be the end of the week, but the likelihood is, based on history that the gfs is being over progressive

I enjoy and respect BB62 posts as much as the next man but the reality is that some modelling (gfs mainly) has shown higher uppers pushing in from the south thereby bringing a degree of marginality to proceedings. Personally I think the gfs is being a bit (as usual) progressive and everything will be a bit further south, however if something is being modelled it’s a little arrogant to shut down discussion on it just because it doesn’t fit with your particular agenda

This spell is shaping up as being notable for its severity and longevity. If it does deliver on both, it will be interesting that we will have had 3 such spells in the past 8 years, following a 19 year baron period.

The feature running across the south remains a bit high risk as the uppers across the channel demonstrate. We should be ok but folk in southern counties wouldn’t want it deepening or been modelled much further north

Daytime maxes for the Jan 87 event were probably a one in 200 year event in the context of the 20th century climate, so would go some to beat that. 1990/1 has actually had several similarities already to this winter with a noteable cold spell in early December.

Where are you off to Steve. I’m at Gatwick too. Away to Mexico for a week. Hoping ECM is right as that gives my return flight a chance of landing and me being able to drive home. If Gfs is correct, I suspect Gatwick will be closed when I am due to land

By 372 the cold and snow seems to be heading south again

Looks like the Atlantic will make inroads at +350 or so, But the GFS is known for being over progressive

Locating the M4 might be an issue - it will be buried

Bit of a model wobble this evening (ECM geographic, GFS op, progressive) - not uncommon in the 144-240 hour range. The temptation when stellar charts are churned out on consecutive outputs is to forget that they at a range where verification is at a very low percentage, especially when they are displaying the severe weather that is craved by so many. The good news is that the poorer charts are also still in FI, so a lot can still change and as we have seen before with SSW's the range of outcomes on offer varies wildly for a few days. At least Thursday, I would say, until any specifics can be nailed, assuming tonight's trend isn't the start of the implosion of the cold spell.

If my recollection is correct, the build up to 2005 was quite similar, although by the time it actually arrived the uppers had got watered down quite a bit. I lived and worked in Central London at the time and got zilch, although it did deliver for quite a few as I recall. The cold pool looks more robust this time round, so a bigger threat would probably be a geographical deviation with the cold pool either missing us or not quite making it. here.

As I recall, although the Model output at the time was pointing to a coldish outlook, the ECM (and most of it's ensemble set) went for a very extreme outcome for 1 run. There is far more model agreement this time, both in terms of cross model consensus and consistencies between runs for the same model. Add this to the background teleconnections as a result of the SSW and things look a lot more solid this time round. It should be noted that there are still 4 or 5 ensemble members on the 06z GFS that don't really ever get that cold, so a complete collapse is I suppose possible until we see those blues and purples heading over the North Sea and the low countries at +72 or so. What would concern me more based on 15 years or so of model watching, would be that some historic cold spells have shown similarly epic output in the 8-14 day range only for very incremental downgrades to occur in terms of severity or longevity (or both) which has resulted in a bit of a watered down version when the spell actually arrives, albeit with some noteworthy snow events on occasions. The two instances that I can recall the event being as severe as the models were December 2010 and March 2013, the latter event offering some hope to us here as that was also a SSW event.

I don’t think you are worrying too much. I suspect the milder ensembles would be showing central Southern Europe in the freezer with milder uppers spilling over the top of them. That said, the nearer these sort of charts get into the reliable, the more likely they will verify.

If the BOM is not on board, I’m not buying

Feb 7th 1991 - Probably -17C into some southern parts.

I'd be quite surprised is +8C uppers verified - even if they did it still might be chilly at the surface.

Shocker of an ECM for cold lovers. Could be on the golf course sooner than I thought if it were to verify

Problem is that conditions are likely to vary quite widely over the whole of the uk, so any commentary provided would be rather generic and not very specific