Stu_London

Something to keep an eye on Front meets lp cell in the channel now meets streamer later could be interesting.

main ppn band seems to be moving in a due northerly direction now

Bring back John Kettley - massive cold ramper

In my experience easterlies are marginally more likely to happen if the op leads the other members, rather than the other way round (i.e. ensemble support without the op until later) Both scenarios have a reasonably fair chance of failing so lots more runs needed, however a positive shift towards an easterly today.

Haha I was going to ask about the seagulls a few days ago. Good to see they are in position.

Just east of Bristol - around 200m above sea level

Hopeful with around 100m elevation and being quite far east, that Orpington will do ok - probably more so the Cheslfield end which goes up to more like 150m.

Probably more at elevation given the uppers and the wind direction.

The ICON is like one of those annoying people on the Motorway that keep changing lanes hoping to gain a car length or two when there is heavy traffic.

Spot on Paul Whatever can go wrong - inevitably does when it comes to snow in the UK Obviously some very high reward model porn this morning - but massive risks.

Doubt it will be snow at low levels in the south under -4C 850s

In my experience yes. Not everyone. But some people

Seems to me that a lot of people still get sucked in by the darker blues and purples in use on the metociel site. Just because there graphics look more impressive for cold doesn’t make the event any less marginal

Been a similar theme for much of this month. Just too much energy blowing up at short notice - so whilst the 7-10 day charts have been amazing - they have largely collapsed when entering into the reliable 72-96 period. Add to that that actual heights in the arctic have rarely delivered even at quite short notice and it becomes easy to see why the whole process has been so frustrating for cold/snow hunters. Not that surprising when you consider that January's have been quite zonal in most recent years. I think we will get a decent cold spell on the back of the SSW but for my money it will be probably early to mid February, when historically there is less energy from the northern hemisphere oceans.

It might surprise but we haven't really had many penetrating frosts to cool the soil down (last night was about -1) However as per previous post, we are only really taking are seats for dinner at this stage. The table is booked for the whole evening and the reliable models are screaming after hours lock-in. Hopefully ICON isn't the babysitter that will call and tell us we have come home because little Johnny has been sick down his pyjamas.

Not convinced - experience tells me that these marginal events tend to fall the wrong side as they come into the 36-72 range. Rather like tonight's prospects were looking a couple of days ago. Not a problem, as this was only the breadstick course.

Lets hope we don't get sandwiched in any mild sectors for too long. In all seriousness, best model eye candy since 2010 for me. Last year was good but this evolution has been amazing. Still a nagging concern is the tendency for output to downgrade slightly in the last 72-96 hours (snow events tonight and Tue have become more marginal in the last day or so). However the pattern at 96-144 is severe enough to take some marginal knocks so shouldn't be a problem unless there is a major change to upset the apple cart.

My experience of classic easterly outbreaks is that if they do not have an early pattern change then they are only snow producers for a maximum of 3-4 days. 1987 - 3 days then ran out of cold pool and temps lifted gradually. 1991 - 3 days then ran out of cold pool but high migrated towards UK keeping surface very cold for 2 weeks. 2018 - 3 days then pattern change from a mild direction 2019 - ??? Ideally you want easterly - then northerly to tap into another trough and then back to easterly. Happened a few occasions before my time (47/63 etc) but yet to experience it with any real longevity in my lifetime.

A period of surface cold with less moisture (per the ECM) would be preferable to many of the operational runs delivered by the GFS which whilst looking pretty would have in reality been a bit of a sleety mess away from Scotland and northern hills. Marginal situations (should they arise) rarely deliver if arriving directly from a period of average or above average temperatures. My concern is that the ECM has form with Armageddon type output that either evaporates or gets watered down nearer the event.

Bit marginal for Kent Coastal regions. In all seriousness, quite epic output today. At this range I would expect a couple of marginal upgrades as the detail firms up.

Increasing trend to see some sort of (albeit quite messy) HLB around the +300hr mark, which while it remains in that range falls into chocolate teapot category of usefulness. It seems since around mid December that whenever a cold trend has started to gain some traction, the northern arm of the jet fires up and blasts hope away. Perhaps the events in the strat are yet to fully reveal the effects in the trop, but I am starting to think this might be a bit of a Murphy's Law type of winter. At least until the last 3rd when the jet might ease off a bit.

SSTs are lower in early April than December meaning less modified air masses The Jet tends to ease off as well as the Vortex collapses leading to a less westerly regime. Humidity tends to be lower in April also which supports snow falling through the air at higher temperatures. However a prolonged cold spell over several days with laying snow at low lying areas is very much possible in December and might occur on average every 5-10 years whereas in April it is almost impossible.

Based on the 06z GFS op it's time to dust off a Christmas classic tune by Mud - "Zonally this Christmas" More appropriate for the days after Christmas to be honest, as the big day itself looks dry and chilly

Although most of the models have some sort of tropical maritime solution in the medium term, looking at the overall Northern Hemisphere profile we are nowhere near so many November's I have observed with a pattern established that can often ruin the first half of winter for cold prospects. It would be no surprise to me if another potential cold spell comes into view as early as the end of next week.

Must be unusual for the low point in October to occur on the 1st (9.8C) Probably hasn't happened too much in the series.