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Stu_London

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Everything posted by Stu_London

  1. Stu_London
    06z gfs looks cool to cold right though to the 20th (beyond that not really worth speculating on) - Should be well down in the low to mid 3s by the 20th - I wonder if we can get a March with a CET in the 3s Sub 4 March's these days are rarer than hen's teeth, but there were 11 examples in the 20th Century, the last one being 1970.
  2. Stu_London
    Probably more a reflection of GFS inaccuracies more than BFTVs. Although predictions in these situations are fraught with difficulties when 100 miles or a couple of hours timings diffences can make several degrees difference.
  3. Stu_London
    Fair enough LOL GFS isn't always great with it's surface temps prediction, but I think we can safely say it will be well below average for a few days from tomorrow.
  4. Stu_London
    Latest output suggests ppn moving well north into London and other home counties. Uxbridge should do fine if verifying I remember the gold cup being delayed for 90 minutes of so due to snow when I was just a wee lad. The Thinker came steaming up the hill to win. Hot favourite (Forgive and Forget, I think!) down the field
  5. Stu_London
    I'm sorry? A reasonable prediction for the 7 day period from Sunday, which will is forecast to be exceptionally cold for the time of year.
  6. Stu_London
    12z prediction 10Mar2013-16Mar2013 CET = 0.1C
  7. Stu_London
    01Mar1947-15Mar1947 CET = -0.2C
  8. Stu_London
    It was all a bit like the film, "The Hangover"
  9. Stu_London
    to add there has been a real shortage of low minima on offer considering the uppers that we have had If they hadn't held up quite so much, Jan and Feb could have very easily been well below 3C
  10. Stu_London
    I also agree that it's the most likely scenario. However it does require modification from what is being shown now, which whilst likely, wasn't made clear. If by some miracle the 216 and 240 charts verified 100%, it would be mostly snow.
  11. Stu_London
    I think the poster may have looked and made a judgement on 850 temps alone which if taken in isolation might be a little marginal in early March. However with thicknesses as low as they are forecast, I think any PPN would be predominately snow. Should it get watered down any, which is likely, then that starts to become another matter.
  12. Stu_London
    If we averaged 0C between now and the end of the month and got a slight downward adjustment for February - we would beat 1996. Not impossible but need that cloud to clear at night
  13. Stu_London
    One crumb of comfort is that the GFS does model Northerlies well. Encouraged to see the operational taking the route of some of the colder ensembles we have been seeing
  14. Stu_London
    Apparently COBRA has told Meto to skip the warnings - they are going straight to martial law.
  15. Stu_London
    I'd put big money on sub 4C happening Mr D.
  16. Stu_London
    Still think we have an excellent chance of going sub 3C to be honest
  17. Stu_London
    mid to high 2s looks favourite landing point to me. Mid if the cold stays until month end High if it warms up a bit in the last couple of days.
  18. Stu_London
    Could well be - seas are still getting colder in the 2nd half and atlantic more likely to be weaker. 1986 was certainly colder second half
  19. Stu_London
    According to the GFS in high resolution we would be 3.1C by the 24th. If the cold can hang about until month end, then sub 3C has an excellent chance. The high point for this month is likely to be the 17th, although it could easily stay at 3.8C for the next 3-4 days as there is not a great deal of movement either way. Another area of interest will be the rolling annual CET - This looks set to fall again and if March starts cold, we could get somewhere near the very low 9s during the month.
  20. Stu_London
    And this winters winner of the the RAMP of the season is.......
  21. Stu_London
    Both warmer - 2006 considerably so. 15/2/2010-28/2/2010 - 2.9C 15/2/2006-28/2/2006 - 4.0C
  22. Stu_London
    What a bonkers 18z GFS run Snowfest followed by 3 day thaw with maxes into the teens and right at the end of the run a rerun of Jan 1987
  23. Stu_London
    worth remembering once again the metociel's colour scheme can make things look a little more dramatic than they really are as well as the way they represent the earth curvature.
  24. Stu_London
    It does look a better run than it's predecessor - however at +126 we are just hoping the whole thing doesn't fall apart. We we get below +72 - then the specifics come into play.
  25. Stu_London
    1986 would be the next one back - at minus 1.4C, unlikely to be beaten this year or anytime soon.
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