Stu_London

Hello Tamara Agreed, until the track of the 1st low is nailed down we can't even begin to think about anything else. One worry is that these channel lows have a history of being progged too far north, a couple of times in the last few years they have dived into france at very short notice. I suppose if the 1st one doesn't hit us the 2nd one might, which might actually be better for longer lasting cold as it probably would mean the influence of the scandi high would be further south than currently projected. I wouldn't worry too much about the ECM, it's performance on the entire evolution has been dire

Ah - I don't have the benefit of the extra charts - perhaps I should subscribe forthwith!

Not as good @ + 30

Feb 2005, Clerkenwell 850s -11C Thickness c. 519dam Rain! Although it did produce about 3cm of lying snow in the Regents Park area less then 3km away.

Certainly worth a look as the UKMO has performed very well through this. Even the JMA solution of a couple of days ago may end up closer to reality than its more heavyweight rivals ECM and GFS which is remarkable as at the time I thought the model had programmed the earth to be spinning in the opposite direction for that particular output

I haven't forgotten that at all - as a recall the heights for that event were very low and as a consequence the freezing level was much lower than would be normal. Or course there will always be slightly freakish events like that, but the general trend over the last 20 years is for marginal events to increasingly fall on the rain side of the fence

The sypnotic comparisons to 47, 79 and the 80s are for once valid (a look at the archive charts can verify this for any doubters). My only concern relates to how these sypnotics will pan out in 2007. For example, in the eighties usually an 850 isotherm of around -5C or -6C aloft was pretty much guaranteed to deliver an event - today that is on the worse side of marginal with even -7C and -8C 850s often accompanying cold rain. So maybe our snowless problem is twofold these days 1) We dont get the right set ups as often 2) When we do it has to be super cold because they don't deliver at the same temp as they used to I'd love to be proved wrong (not least to reign in some of the GW rampers) however I don't hold out much hope for my own Central London location

I have a sneaky suspicion that one of our super volcanoes will blow between now and the end of April. I cool clouldy summer and an early autumn/winter period will result in an annual CET of.... 9.96C tell me that isn't the lowest punt to date (I am sure Murr will post lower anyway)

Off topic (but in context to a previous post), if you type "Climatic Lurch Anybody?" into MS word it suggests that the phrase is fragmented and that you should consider revision - perhaps you should take this up with Mr Gates directly SF

A bit on the bullish side I would say. Looking more and more likely that although the high will start to shift around xmas day it will take some time and temps could be progged below average right through to the 28th or 29th. Meantime temps in this spell are much lower than was forecast a couple of days ago and likely to remain so for a few days yet. I reckon its about 70/30 in favour of finishing above 6.0C as things stand.

NW tracker is down to 7.91C now and falling at a rate of approximately 0.01C per hour. November 2005 is a good example of how quickley the CET can change even late in the month. Alas, (in terms of my 5.9C prediction) the nights do not look like being anywhere near as cold as then and the current coldish conditions look likely to shift off south east shortly after Christmas.

Hope this isnt too late as I have been away for a few days 5.2

Worth noting that not only the Net-weather boards were affected last season Over on BBC Slowwatch - SATSIGs alert may have been needed at Hedge End, nr Southrampton

Possibly the best post I have ever read on Net.weather

The last six months have been rather exceptional granted. My comments were based on the year as a whole and the uncanny knack that the higher spells of temperature tended to co-incide with calender months

Haven't read all the long scientific (and non scientific) posts on here, but I would say that it's an exceptional year in the the context of say the last 100 years - however in the context of the last 15, it's not. A lot has been made of the CET, however the headlines have been caused by warm and mild spells coinciding with the calender months as much as the weather itself.

2005 was only just over 10C. A cool anticylonic start to November will help keep the start of the month a bit cooler than the same time last year. After that is anyones guess. Wonder what a 1994 would produce in terms of annual CET (16.4 - N & D Combined ) Something pushing 11C i would imagine

SSTs are driven by by atmospheric conditions at our latitude whereas the reverse is true at tropical latitudes Therefore it follows that cold anolomies will occur when the prevailing synoptics deliver cold weather (Feb 86 and Mar 06) As for the mid altantic cold anomoly - that cuts little ice with me - it has been present in several of the last few autumns and early winters and it has been predominately mild

Interesting that you have lowered the bar to 2C As I am sure you know, the last month below this level was Feb 1991. Most of the 90s thereafter were a complete write off winter wise however I think a subtle pattern change took place after 1999. Since then we have basically been unlucky - cold spells have missed us by a whisker or gone t*ts up at sometimes less than 72 hours notice. Another more significant pattern change in Feb 2005 leaves in a situation where I believe 2C could be acheived in the next couple of years if a spell of weather falls neatly into one month - a la July 2006.

Autumn: Wetter than average Temps about normal Sometimes stormy Winter: Average rainfall (or snowfall) - but will seem much wetter after last year Temps slightly above average but with some dramatic swings and I fully expect 1 cold snap from the North for about a week and maybe another easterly but less confident about this. Nothing too scientific has gone into this - just my view on how things might pan out after what was a significant pattern change at the end of last month. I think at least one of the above events may have been influenced by major volcanic activity Saw a program recently - might be the 1830s event I think.

Manley Update to 26/07/06 (thanks to Philip Eden's excellent site) CET 19.97C Looks like it is touch and go as to whether the Manley record will fall (I thought it had no chance a couple of days ago) Unless a Volcano erupts somewhere in the UK!, I suspect the Hadley CET record is now almost certain to be surpassed. Average Sunshine record for July is now a near certainty to fall although local sites in the south are unlikely to surpass July 1911 (which was apparently cloudless!) What is most certain of all is that by next Tuesday or Wednesday we will be confronted by armeggeddon type headlines in the Daily Bigot (or similar tabloid publication) coupled with a poorly researched, one sided piece of journallism predicting mini-tornadoes and hurricanes for the British Isles.

Philip Eden wrote on another site yesterday that as at 24th July 2006, the Hadley CET was only 0.1C behind the Manley CET (and closing). My prediction is that the Manley CET record will just fail to fall and come in at about 19.8C whereas the Hadley CET (as used by the Met Office and therefore will attract much more media attention) will break the record by coming in around 19.6 or 19.7. We also only require an average of 4.5hrs per day sunshine to make it the sunniest month on record also.

The current Hadley CET is 19.59C and the current Manley CET is 19.69C 1st July - 24th July This info is quoted from a post by Philip Eden on another site

1979 got me interested 1981 was good too 1985, 1987, 1991 had nice events. Since 1992 living in London it's been a bit of a non event