Stu_London

easy to forget that in 4 of the last 5 years we have seen cooling in terms of CET, although 2006 wiped out all 4 and more. However people were speculating up until the middle part of last year that perhaps we had entered a sustained cooling phase. Lets keep things in perspective, we have only had this extraordinary warming for a period of 13 months

I assume you mean in terms of how long measured temperature records go back because there is plenty of evidence that the earth has been warmer than today many times.

Which summer was better than 76? I know last year was on course but didn't August scupper that. There have been hotter months than those in 76 but not all three together if I recall correctly?

Still pretty close tp the warmest origin possible - esp for the second half of autumn

Since 1987 we have warmed at a rate of about double that of the globe generally - If you look at the last 12 months then cross the word double out and replace it with treble. My theory for this is that synoptics and synoptics alone have been the driver in the latest jump forward in temperatures. It would be almost impossible for us to have much more of a tropical continental influence than last summer and autumn - or a tropical maritime influence than the winter just passed and therefore sypnotics since June 2006 are almost optimum for the warmest/mildest weather the UK can possible experience. Putting it simply, the UK physically cannot get much warmer than it is now unless a new wind direction is invented that is warmer than a southerly in summer or a SWrly in winter. The temperature at the origins of these winds may be getting slightly warmer but not on the scale we have seen here. The same can be said for most contries at high Northern latitudes with a maritime influence, indeed in scandinavia where they are used to it being much colder, some of their monthly anomolies make ours look very ordinary. For this very reason it is very likely that this is very much a lurch forward in the warming and we may see a plateau around the 11C (annual CET) mark with some cooler years over the next decade before any warming trend continues. The only way warming can continue at the current rate is if there is the temperatures at the origins of where our weather has been coming from were to suddenly rise more rapidly than seen previously.

Some interesting reading in here and some wild punting - Joe Coral and William Hill would love you lot to frequent their shops. It's interesting that a pattern change is now being progged as coming into the reliable time frame. I like KW's idea of an easterly month as it is not difficult to envisage low pressure to our south, high pressure to the north west. Never going to be that cold at this time of year though but could give the south a fair bit of needed rain. Off the back of such a high April CET, there is a better chance of a colder May than April for only the 7th time since records began and I was really tempted to go for that at one stage. However, I feel that in this day and age to rule out a warm to hot spell occuring in a whole month is a bit blinkered. Therefore I go for 11.9C, although I would not be surprised to see the in running average for May be below the final April CET figure until late in the month. The spring record may stay intact if may guess is near the mark.

I agree it is odds on and would take a significant cool spell in May (compared to what we are used to in recent history) to avoid a record spring. To break the record by 0.7C, a la Autumn 2006, would need May to be somewhere around 14C depending on where April ends up. The record for May is a little freakish to say the least with 15.1C being recorded in 1833 and the next highest level being 13.9C, fifteen years later - a statistic that in itself gives a straw to clutch at for those such as myself, who think (perhaps wishfully) that the recent record breaking marks set could largely be down to natural cycles (sunspots, El nino, decadal SSTs, recurring sypnotic patterns, etc) happening to all contribute at the same time to warming of this part of the world and in a few years the temps being set now will be big outliers on the statistical map.

Assuming we finish around 11.3C, the threshold for May for a record spring is 12.1C May average has exceeded this figure 9 times in the last 30 years, however all of those occasions have been since 1989 and six have been in the last ten years. The rolling ten year average is 12.2C, however the rolling 5 year average is only 11.9C. Based on those stats, I would say a record for spring is slightly odds against, however with so much warmth around so far this april, I would rather be a layer than a player

I don't think the argument was spurious - there has been a definate link between the CET of spring/summer/autumn months being influenced by extremely sunny months, notably in 2003 and 2006 and again this month. TM's and JH's subsequent posts speculate that warming may have driven sypnotics to change which is an interesting problem, the solution to which will become clearer over the next few years. And whilst I am not looking to down play the statistics of the last year or so, which have indeed been spectular and unprecented, it would be wrong to paint the impression that the global climate is changing as fast which the tone, if not the content, of some posts imply.

A lot of people in their AGW ramping/ranting forget this point. In the exceptional months that have occured in the last year, a cursory glance at the sunshine totals is advised. July 2006 is a good example, the mean maxima anomoly was far ahead of the mean minima anomoly despite the short nights and retentive warmth from high humidity levels. I suspect April 2007 will be even more an extreme case - indeed minima were below average for the first third of the month

If it is anywhere near 11.6C, humanity may as well pack up and go home now. Thankfully, somewhere around 11.0C is altogether much more likely - although a couple of below average months (rare I know) could easily knock things back to about 10.6C

Ridiculous as it may now seem, my punt of 9.96C doesn't seem to have made the list. Can this be rectified please!!

Philip's site is now up to 9.0C with the net weather uk temp tracker racing ahead at 9.38C These look set to rise further by the weekend. However the tale of this anomoly (and that of most of the warm spring/summer months since 2003) is in the sunshine totals - 184% of average - and with more short term sunshine followed by a possible reload (if you believe ECM and UKMO output of yesterday) - records for April will need to have an eye kept on them.

Netweather Temp Tracker uses the monthly CET Philip uses the CET to the day - i.e CET for 1-6 April is less the CET for 1-30 April

Don't wish to backseat moderate, but I have read this thread looking for pointers on April's CET only to find it has been hijacked (like most others) by the AGW brigade - It's a worthy subject but can it be kept in dedicated threads. ON TOPIC looks like this mornings GFS output is continuing its trend towards more seasonal conditions. Even this weekend, with typically (for the time of year) low humidity its unlikely to budge the CET too far up as there could be as much as a 20C difference between minima and maxima. I don't see us hitting 10C as was predicted earlier anytime in the reliable timeframe. My guess is a creep up to about 8.5C to 9C, then stabalising and perhaps dropping off a touch as we get to the last week or so of the month.

Winter seems to be getting later each year. I see this them continuing for at least part of April and go for 8.4C - slightly above the 30 year average but cooler than the 10 year rolling average.

It's been an interesting season, albeit disappointing for people looking for sustained cold and snow. The remarkable thing about this winter has been the power of the jet and atlantic no doubt fired up by El Nino conditions prevailing for most of the season. I can't remember such a sustained hammering of deep lows (sub 970s) smashing into the UK as we have had especially in December, but also at times during the rest of the season. What has made it more stormy is that the jet was slightly further south than atlantic dominated winters that I can remember clearly, which meant that depressions ran straight into the UK more often than not rather than the corridor between NW Scotland and Iceland as one would normally expect. Good news for those suffering from the 2 year drought, although in the south east of the UK these problems are as much to do with infrastructure as lack of rainfall. Despite the jet being positioned ever so slightly south, the season was once again in the exceptionally mild category, although after the record breaking autumn which left the UK surrounded by anomolous SSTs, it would have needed a quite severe early cold spell for these to have cooled sufficiently to affect the air being modified as it came off the sea masses around us. These SSTs themselves would have contributed to the recurring zonal pattern. The season was notable for the lack of mid atlantic and greenland blocking. It would be interesting to see presure anomolies for these locations for the season. As a result, there was not a single arctic origin northerly event (by which i mean 1-2 day minimum) throughout which in itself much be quite a rare event. As with any UK winter, the stats themselves do not tell the whole story. Central London recorded laying snow on two separate occasions in the winter, which is the first time I have recorded this since I started taking notice in 2000. On the second occasion, this was due to a widespread frontal snow event from the south west which is a rare event these days and something which some people had written off as an impossibility in the modern day winter. Wrong forum but: Does all of this add up to AGW? Possibly, certainly global temperatures have risen in the last 20 years but my feeling remains that much more data is required before any conclusions can be drawn and also that other external factors exert a lot more influenece that people realise.

7.4 for me

already a good inch in Central London settling on all surfaces (except in my courtyard which would require sub 474 dam air for snow to settle). perfect timing for here - if we get a decent enough fall over the next 1-2 hours - this could be the most significant central london event since Feb 1991. I look forward to a lonely day with no colleagues in the office.

Oops didnt see that

A couple of points 1) Just before the last cold spell (before it had happened in fact) you were saying how rubbish the GFS was and how ECM handled these situations better (because that particular model was showing your default preferred conditions) 2) The GFS has been far from consistent in the run up to where we are now - two mornings ago - there was no snow for tomorrow (apart from the highlands) and yesterday Thursday and Saturday had a major snow event for most of the UK. 3) Back to point 1 - you are handing out plaudits before the events have panned out. I have a lot of respect for the technical anaylsis in your posts, however the manner of your posting this morning is in danger of showing you up as a wind up merchant

I think the fact that there remains so much (unprecedented??) model divergence at +36 to +48 means that fairly significant movement still is possible. I have to agree though if it is still wrong it's going one way - south. Also +100 on the models ATM is equivalant to about +280 in a stable pattern (i e deep in FI) - trends only past +60 - lets see if the 18Z is closer to the GEM solution than the 12Z - i know where my money is.

How funny I come back from an enjoyable night at the cinema watching Rocky Bilbao, only to see the Net Weather Heavyweight Battle home page headline! I look at the charts and see ECM and GFS completely at odds with each other. Then I find Paul and WIB trading posting blows in the model output forum. What theatre! Back to the 18z, not so good for far south (but better for midlands northwards) - but the divergence between models at such short notice is slightly alarming - I'd still back GFS/UKMO just, but ECM is getting to the stage where if it doesn't win out, it will be in permanant denial (i.e. credability shot to pieces). S

I felt FI looked typically over progressive - I do think everything could still be pushed a bit further south and the long term effect of this would increase the chances of HP to our NW, N or NE later into Feb

What do people think the lowest minima will be this week. I suspect Monday and Tuesday night will be the best shot, I wouldn't be suprised to see a -12C somewhere.