mickpips

Unfortunately you have to take such forecast temperatures as maximums , in town and city centres ... away from such ... maximums will be way below them values

Looks like the UKMO is gradually coming around to the GFS thinking , GFS has the whole country in -5 850's by Tuesday afternoon

Well the Met Office are sticking to their guns in using the word 'brief' so they obviously don't see any sustained cold spell on the model output they are observing

Nearly fell for it

I'm not saying this will be the case Ian , i'm stating what its showing ... nice to see your love for the GFS though

The GFS 850hpa temps are much less pronounced on the 12z compared to the 06z which had almost the whole country under -5 by T144

Incorrect - they were MAXIMUM daytime temps, of which will be Major City centres

The METO will always sit on the fence , they work on probabilities and percentages. Given several factors within the model outputs that could change next weeks colder spell then they are very unlikely to paint a snowfest picture. As has been alluded to all morning in this thread , their forecast for today has been 'off the mark' so to speak and just last night their 5 day warning had the whole country on a yellow warning for Wind on Sunday/Monday which has now been refined quite a lot ... this shows they were very much unsure about this weekend , let alone next week ! Another example would be their text forecast for my region which states ' colder on Tuesday' yet their forecast temps for Tuesday are the same as Monday We can view the output and come to our own conclusions ( which is why we are here ) but the probability of being correct is what's debatable.

The company i work for is a bottled water distribution company and subscribe to one of the MetO commercial outputs.. This is sent to our H/Q in Glasgow and then information is passed on to individual depots. I dont know in what form this is when it gets sent to our H/Q but at depot level we recieve tailored potential route disruption on a grade of 1-10 for the usual wind,rain,ice and snow. I only have up to next Thursday but 4 out of the 6 routes we run in the NE have a level 5 snow disruption warning for next Thursday !!

We have seen heavy snow showers on and off all day here with air temps around 5/6 degrees and 850's not much to write home about. -4/-5 uppers are more than sufficient in providing snowfall , even to low levels. I am pretty confident that both the gfs and ukmo 12z output will provide snow to many next week and not just the North / Ne as indicated by many including the Met.

Well its snowing fairly heavily across many parts of West Yorkshire under showers this afternoon , proving not all modelling and forecasting can be correct all the time , have faith !

What i see as the main point you failed to post SS is their forecast thereafter of temperatures being 'rather cold' but nearer normal at times in the south. That still indicates below average temperatures for the majority even beyond next weds/thurs

Even with the current UKMO output and other models starting to follow suite in their own ways , i still err on the edge of cuation , still many 'proffessional' local forecasters ... even up to 10 minutes ago !! must be seeing something i and others on here dont within the latest output as, and i quote ' snow is possible next week but is unlikely to be of any concern' , granted thats for IMBY ... but far from what i was expecting , hopefully Fergie will shed a bit of light ?

That's actually one of your better / more realistic posts in a long while Karl ... i sit , i read , i analyse ... and then i laugh at the ups / downs and total randomness of some posts on this forum , too many people believe and swear by what their preferred model output is ... to be gospel !! yet then 9 out of 10 times are dismayed that such output did not come to fruition , beggars belief take a cross model output ( as per METO ) and draw a likely average ... it kinda gets you the eventual outcome

It does appear the Met Office are getting a little ahead of themselves : Headline:Dry and cold with widespread mist or fog. This Evening and Tonight:Dry and largely clear with light winds allowing mist or fog to become more widespread compared to the previous night. A slight frost will also develop, leading to a risk of icy patches on untreated surfaces. Minimum Temperature -2 °C. Tuesday:Widespread fog initially, but through the morning the fog will lift into low cloud. During the afternoon becoming breezy, remaining cloudy and dull, with rain into the west by midnight. Maximum Temperature 5 °C. Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:Wednesday rain slowly clearing away eastwards, with mainly dry conditions following. Thursday cloudy with showers. Friday starting dry before strong winds and rain arrive later, perhaps briefly preceded by snow. Issued at: 1600 on Mon 20 Jan 2014 Only one slight change on their output for my location since their last output and thats the word 'snow' which was previously 'sleet'

Based on yesterday afternoon outputs vs todays afternoon ( 12z ) outputs there is no doubt this forum has gone from hysteria to general disappointment , and why ... purely based on the fact the model output reverted from a continuation theme of endless W/SW lows swinging in from the Atlantic and battering the UK to overwhelming model support for a full blown easterly with 850's allowing 'potential' snowfall countrywide .... 24 hours later there's been a general swing back to where we were , albeit admittedly not completely.. back to a westerly / Atlantic dominated influence upon the UK ... so why do we have double figure pages of disappointment comments ?IMO , if you filter out the comments from users with thousands of posts that mean completely nothing ( i agree and see the frustration of the admins of this site ) you can read the potential of the model output and conclude the uncertainty , as previously I quoted our local 'independent ex-met forecasters' as stating , we are potentially looking at a 2-3 day 'colder' setup next week with a NE/SW bias . Drawing a 'middle ground' from all model output , anyone would agree with today's MET longer range forecast surely ? Too many lookers for cold became convinced once yesterdays outputs agreed somewhat on a T+144 output of a NE building high that we were looking at a locked in cold and snowy outlook ... never conclude from model agreement and urge on the side of caution, especially when the UK MET are in disagreement , hence todays updates , they wern't convinced and so the forthcoming output showed the uncertainty.Nobody can say with any certainty this wont change back again to a sinking / undercutting low tomorrow across all model output bringing a locked in Easterly regime but i still go along with the 2/3 day snowy potential for the NE Northwards midweek next week as is with MET longer range

No suprise IMO with regards to the 00z or the 06z - Our local forecaster gave a slight insight yesterday on local radio ( BBC Leeds ) stating the outlook was 'cooler' which is no suprise after the cuurent above average temps but then said the models he had viewed hinted at a 2-3 day cold and snowy spell possible around the middle of next week ... no mention of any prolonged cold though

the first line of their weather warning states 'As the weather breaks down.. ', I think thats where the question arose as that simple sentence is quite misleading.

No , he was was giving his daily views Live on Radio Leeds, he does tend to give his views quite often on the differences when there thrown up between the GFS and the UKMO outputs

Our 'independant' ex met office forecaster for Yorkshire 'Paul Hudson' has made it quite clear the uncertainty for the weekend but states at some point that a disruptive amount of snow can be expected this weekend , and timing currently varies from Saturday night through to Sunday night but likely to turn to rain into Monday away from higher ground. With next week being unsettled and 'less cold' with periods of rain and snow to hills... take from that whichever model output you require, but I'm assuming he still has contact sources at the MO

Excellent explanation of the prospects and probability / potential next week 41/51 ECMWF runs suggest an Easterly flow. http://www.bbc.co.uk/paulhudson

Unfortunately after massive upgrading from most model output there is that increased likelyhood now of downgrades more especially from the GFS. Caution would have to be the optimum word before the 12's surface I would imagine a slight backtrack from this mornings outputs but fingers crossed !

A bit of advice please , I have been following the GFS ensembles for the last few days and although there is a huge scatter on the 850's from around wednesday for my region ( and its been evident for a few days now ) ... the general trend is for positive figures 850's. The question is , if this trend is for positive 850's then how come there is increasing confidence for further snow events in the latter part of the week and into the weekend. I know there are many other factors that are needed for snowfall but i generally start with the 850 temp and then look at other factors to see if there conducive of snowfall.

Dont feel too sorry for us TEITS , after all I have had one of the snowiest winters in my memory this winter , with lying snow for well over 20 days and touching 11 inch at one point in North Leeds. Even yesterday we had snow into the evening giving a light covering when most models just forecast the band to peter out into South Yorkshire. Anyone will tell you how difficult it is to forecast not only the type of PPN but the extent and track of any over the next 5-6 days ... I see the Met have an early warning out for next monday already !! Must be some confidence already ?!

Hi Brickfielder, I find it interesting you state surface temps are around 6 degree's. Even your first chart says so yet the current temp here in Leeds is 0.7oC and looking across the Meto site its not above 2 degree's anywhere in Yorkshire. Not a model discussion post but if the ppn makes it this far north then i would expect snow even to lower levels later today along with tomorrow