mickpips

Was very cloudy up to about an hour ago here in Leeds , which started to clear with a very orange sun poking through the mist / dust. Its now brilliant sunshine but there is a distinct smokey smell in the air.

Not read through the comments but wanted to say how disappointed I have been with tonights storm potential ..... other than a few 'minor' lightning strikes towards the NW and a few very isolated downpours across the north of England ... here in Leeds we have had two periods of what I would call 'spot' rain today .... so much for the 'severe' potential. Having said that , it is still extremely muggy out at the moment

So your taking ppn maps as gospel for the initial ( Friday low ) but discounting the secondary low ? as it 'may' end up in France. Very little movement of the initial low would mean that ppn forecast map to be incorrect too

If you hover over WAA it tells you what the abbreviation means , - warm air advection up towards Greenland and the Arctic in this instance

The cold to our East ? There is very little cold to tap in to from my reading and if anybody is looking for snow at that time period , 850's conducive to snowfall are 100's of miles away

True , in the grand scale of things ... I was just trying to make out , locally things can be so different to those forecast , meteorically things remain the same upstream , an onslaught from the SW seems inevitable next week

If the Met can't even predict this evenings snow with any certainty ( predicted a western pennine into the midlands snow event ) yet Yorkshire ( further East ) saw the frontal band move through and lay down several cm's of snow , how can any model output be taken at current output to be decided at +24 yet alone beyond ?

Radar shows PPN just about cleared from Leeds but snow fall has gone from light to moderate again

As predicted

The netweather radar showed light ppn over myself from 4pm this afternoon , and yes it was cloudy but nothing fell from the sky until about 7pm

Even a miracle was never gonna push it that far NorthEast , pmsl

Never a truer word ...

precise measurement just outside Leeds City centre is 4cm bang on .... on car roof

Judging the radar , I would say Leeds will see lighter stuff for the next hour or so , Barnsley will see something a little heavier over the next hour , Sheffield I can see another few cm's incoming later this evening from the NW , Anything North or East of these locations may see flurries

Current Temp -1.3 degree's and steady snowfall just outside Leeds City centre, about 4cm of snow

I think even the Met Office got this one wrong , forecasted the front to move down the West and into the Midlands but its all shifted further East

I'm in Hunslet , just south of the City centre but I have friends north of Leeds that say there is about 2 inch there now

Totally agree , I've seen heavy snow in Sheffield when very little elsewhere

Good couple of cm's here now , I was a bit worried I wouldn't see snow as moved recently from North Leeds to just outside the Centre. The snow is falling pretty steady and no wind at all !

A very reasoned post Nick , without doubt there is potential but if the Met favour an Atlantic return and are currently feeding beeb forecasts on such for next week , personally I would favour their opinion over what even their model output suggests for next week , however , it has been known for them to change their minds at the last minute

As stated this afternoon , both the Beeb and Met forecasts appeared to be following the GFS output , stating a return to milder SW ( Atlantic ) driven weather anywhere from Monday to Wednesday , Despite the METO charts released only two hours later that totally dismissed such ! Your guess is as good as mine , I view almost every model output religiously and have done for the 10+ years of following this thread and can only give one word of advice , back against the UK Met Forecast at your peril As such , I do expect the Atlantic to be the driving force by mid week next week at the latest and expect a backtrack from the METO and ECM tomorrow

Just very confusing though wouldn't you agree ? They obviously chose 'their' update to reflect what the GFS was showing

The problem is even the Met Office do not believe in their own output , surely they must see this output before the general public so why update their extended outlook to suggest the return of milder temps from the SW next week ? Not only that , they have changed it from 'Mid Week' to 'Early-Mid week' .... Wouldn't that suggest they believe more in the GFS projection ?

To my eyes the GFS 06Z appears to be bringing the SW'LYs in even earlier on Sunday !