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TomDav

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Everything posted by TomDav

  1. TomDav
    tbh I haven't actually looked at the individual members yet but there's still room for improvement wrt uppers
  2. TomDav
    About a quarter of the GEFS members support a solution similar to the ecm at D10
  3. TomDav
    GFS going blocked in later stages as high retrogresses, perhaps SSW effects filtering into the model output ?
  4. TomDav
    12z GEFS clusters generally cooler than the 6z at D16 with a number showing the -5c isotherm close to or over the UK & roughly half the members with a continental flow, the other with a trough of low pressure sitting over NW Europe.
  5. TomDav
    Seems to me a plausible solution, considering we have had an unprecedented SSW event that I doubt has been fully assimilated by the models yet
  6. TomDav
    Looks like there will be potentially quite a potent northerly / north westerly flow around D15
  7. TomDav
    12z GEFS clusters suggests generally above avg temps D10 with a number of members showing a deep cold pool to the east: By D16 around half of the suite showing well below avg temps and the other half upper air temps closer to avg All subject to change of course, especially with perhaps a record-breaking SSW in the background. Also, as a disclaimer I am still not totally sure whether the clustering is accurate (!)
  8. TomDav
    My first attempt at GEFS cluster analysis and therefore have no idea of the accuracy. Shows 850mb temp anomalies at 384 hrs
  9. TomDav
    Based on ensemble mean at 360 hrs, averaged over 5 days?
  10. TomDav
    Cold pool very close at 300hrs on the GFS 12z
  11. TomDav
    Scandinavian trough at the end of the GFS 18z. Looks like the beginning of a colder, blocked pattern if it verifies
  12. TomDav
    BTW NOAA 500mb height forecasts on the weekends are automated with no human input (most of the time)
  13. TomDav
    Does anybody know what the NOAA prognostic discussion means when a model is 'Centered on Day 11'? I assume it is the avg for that day instead of the 8-14 day period? And just to check the GFS Superensemble is the NAEFS ?
  14. TomDav
    12z Arpege had the low on Sunday further east with a band of precip over the country
  15. TomDav
    Although those skill scores are for the entire northern hemisphere I think so less representative
  16. TomDav
    Yep GFS 12z was a reversal of -2.2 m/s @ 384hrs (60N)
  17. TomDav
    Yeah purples are high probabilities, light blue low
  18. TomDav
    GEFS 06z categorical snowfall probabilities
  19. TomDav
    -10C isotherm not too far away at 165
  20. TomDav
    Cold Air Advection i think
  21. TomDav
    There has been improvements, below is an image from wxbell I found on Google Images. The points are calculated from raw forecast/analysis data so are not manipulated
  22. TomDav
    Only 850mb wind speed is available for free
  23. TomDav
    Still a long way out.. 850's can be higher to support snow if the air is sourced from the continent
  24. TomDav
    Will be interesting to see if this short-lived easterly in FI on the 12z GFS returns in subsequent runs
  25. TomDav
    Impressive warming although it wanes in the longer-range and never causes a complete disintegration of the vortex (Based on latest model output)
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