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TomDav

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Everything posted by TomDav

  1. TomDav
    I find standard deviation more representative
  2. TomDav
    I would have thought the differences are due to the use of different climatologies / analysis data. I doubt it would be down to earlier ice cover as Unisys should be showing roughly the same as NOAA
  3. TomDav
    Latest GFS runs showing a fair amount of blocking in FI with lows tracking tracking well southwards, although 850's not very cold.
  4. TomDav
    No split on the 18z Only one run tho
  5. TomDav
    Although there is no split on the 18z 12z 18z Hopefully there will be improvements in the morning
  6. TomDav
    I believe the JMA is highly regarded for its modelling of the strat, not sure about trop interactions though
  7. TomDav
    The frames after this would be interesting. Nice WAA into Greenland as well as low pressure near Italy
  8. TomDav
    Much stronger warming modelled with PV split (I think) & Zonal winds dropping to 14.28 m/s
  9. TomDav
    GFS 00Z Zonal winds drop to 11.9 m/s at 384hrs, edging closer to a technical SSW forecast Reversal at 1mb of -6.0 m/s
  10. TomDav
    10mb Zonal winds dropping to 12.1 m/s on the 18Z Also a nice arctic high at the end of the run
  11. TomDav
    GFS Stratospheric output is consistent.
  12. TomDav
    18Z GFS carries the theme of a major warming in the strat start of Feb
  13. TomDav
    Height anomalies can be deceptive tho, e.g. climatologically the polar vortex is situated over Greenland/North Pole so even shallow low pressure can be correspond to +ve hgt500 anomalies
  14. TomDav
    Building heights over Scandi
  15. TomDav
    Here are heights for 06Z at 372
  16. TomDav
    Some deep cold to tap into
  17. TomDav
    Heights building over Scandi
  18. TomDav
    Its 0.25 degree spatial resolution
  19. TomDav
    Improvement on 12Z run I think with heights ridging up to Greenland
  20. TomDav
    Soon!
  21. TomDav
    GFS flattens out the pattern and sinks the high into Europe... just one solution:
  22. TomDav
    Not yet still working on the website
  23. TomDav
    Epic ECM run, especially with the low diving into southern europe
  24. TomDav
    Some similarities with December 2010 2010 ECM 240
  25. TomDav
    What looks like a disintegration/split of the PV at the end of the GFS
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